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Is Russia Cheating On The OPEC Deal?

Public Policy

After three months of steady output, Russia’s crude oil production increased in March to 10.97 million bpd, the highest level since April 2017, as the top two Russian companies boosted their production.

According to data by the Russian Energy Ministry, Russian oil production in March was 46.39 million tons, or 10.97 million bpd, up from 41.85 million tons in February, or 10.95 million bpd.

The March production level showed the first increase since December 2017, and is slightly above Russia’s quota in the production cut deal. Russia’s pledge in the OPEC/non-OPEC deal is to shave off 300,000 bpd from its October 2016 level, which was the country’s highest monthly production in almost 30 years—11.247 million bpd.

Last month, the two largest Russian oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, both raised their production by 0.1 percent compared to February, according to energy ministry data, carried by Reuters. On the other hand, production from projects under production sharing agreements (PSAs) dropped by 0.6 percent in March.

The Russian compliance with the OPEC/non-OPEC deal last month was at 93.4 percent, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Monday, explaining the lower compliance with seasonality on the domestic market. Still, Novak reiterated that his country was committed to achieving the oil market rebalancing.

Earlier this month, Novak once again confirmed that Russia would continue to comply with the OPEC/non-OPEC deal until the end of this year and even into 2019 if need be.

Novak added, however, that Russia is also on board with an earlier end to the deal, should its partners decide it was the best course of action to follow.

The latest chatter coming from OPEC is that it is fully committed to erasing the global glut. In addition, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said last week that Saudi Arabia and Russia were looking to solidify their cooperation on crude oil production for another decade or two.

19 Comments on "Is Russia Cheating On The OPEC Deal?"

  1. rockman on Tue, 3rd Apr 2018 8:22 am 

    No one outside of Russia knows exactly how much oil is being exported. Same true for all OPEC members.

  2. MASTERMIND on Tue, 3rd Apr 2018 9:08 am 

    IEA: Russia’s oil output to reach its peak in 2020

    Looks like Russia is going to collapse now for the second time due to peak oil…HAHA Putin!

  3. joe on Tue, 3rd Apr 2018 9:39 am 

    No mm you mean like the 5th or 6th time. People like you think the world began in 1776….
    What you call Russia was once in Ghengis Khans empire. You think the Crimea belongs to the Ukraine, what about the Turks, they owned it before the Russians,the Genoese before them and so on.
    Russian collapse, what do you think will replace it, democracy, like your corrupt swap riddled money grubbing war economy? Ha!

  4. BobInget on Tue, 3rd Apr 2018 10:49 am 

    Will KSA use this tanker ‘attack’ as casus belli?

    APRIL 3, 2018 / 9:16 AM / UPDATED 2 MINUTES AG0

    Saudi oil tanker hit in Houthi attack off Yemen: coalition
    Reuters Staff

    DUBAI (Reuters) – Yemen’s Houthis hit a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea off the main port city of Hodeidah, the Saudi-led coalition that is fighting the Iran-aligned group in Yemen said on Tuesday.

    The Houthis said they had been targeting a battleship of the coalition in response to an air strike in Yemen’s Hodeidah province on Monday. The group, which controls most of northern Yemen, has launched a series of missile strikes on Saudi Arabia, including the capital Riyadh, in recent days.

    In a statement carried by Saudi media, the coalition said the oil tanker was in international waters when it came under “Houthi-Iranian attack” at around 13:30 local time (1030 GMT).

    A coalition warship conducted a “swift intervention” foiling the attack, it said, without identifying the type of weapon used in the assault.

  5. MASTERMIND on Tue, 3rd Apr 2018 12:46 pm 

    China was barely a statistical rounding error in 1978, with less than 1 percent of global trade, China rose to become in 2013 the world’s leading trading nation with almost a quarter of its annual flows. Nothing on this scale or speed has been witnessed before in history. Since 1970, Asia’s per capita incomes have increased fivefold. Even in Africa, the world’s worst performing continent, incomes have almost doubled. The west’s median income, meanwhile, has barely shifted in the last half century. In arguing for China’s entry to the World Trade Organization, Bill Clinton, the then US president, said globalization was ‘the economic equivalent of a force of nature, like wind or water’. In addition, he argued that China’s entry would reduce America’s bilateral trade defect by binding China to lower tariff rates on its imports. Following China’s WTO accession in 2001, America’s trade defect with China has leapt almost five fold. It is clear, in retrospect, that Beijing had better grasp of the global economy’s dynamics than Washington.

    Edward Luce
    The Retreat of Western Liberalism,
    Atlantic Monthly Press, New York, 2017

  6. JH Wyoming on Tue, 3rd Apr 2018 2:33 pm 

    Oh, this information suggesting Russia has exceeded it’s quota based on a recent agreement with OPEC, is just more lies by the Deep State led by Hillary and Obama. There is no such thing as global warming/climate change, and trickle down economics is the best idea ever. Got to love Trump!

    Ok, so it’s sarcasm, but I just had to have some fun with it.

  7. BobInget on Wed, 4th Apr 2018 9:32 am 

    Last week’s CONSUMPTION EIA repore, just in.

    Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged over 20.9 million barrels
    per day, up by 7.0% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor
    gasoline product supplied averaged over 9.3 million barrels per day, up by 0.4% from the
    same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.0 million barrels per
    day over the last four weeks, down by 4.4% from the same period last year. Jet fuel
    product supplied is up 3.7% compared to the same four-week period last year.

  8. BobInget on Wed, 4th Apr 2018 9:34 am 


    Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending March 30, 2018
    U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged over 16.9 million barrels per day during the week
    ending March 30, 2018, 141,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.
    Refineries operated at 93.0% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production
    decreased last week, averaging over 10.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel
    production increased last week, averaging over 5.0 million barrels per day.

    U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.9 million barrels per day last week, down by 250,000
    barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports
    averaged 7.7 million barrels per day, 3.4% less than the same four-week period last year.
    Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending
    components) last week averaged 761,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged
    99,000 barrels per day last week.

    U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum
    Reserve) decreased by 4.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 425.3 million
    barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the average range for this time
    of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.1 million barrels last week, but
    are in the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and
    blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories
    increased by 0.5 million barrels last week but are in the lower half of the average range
    for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.6 million barrels last
    week, but are in the lower half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum
    inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels last week.

  9. BobInget on Wed, 4th Apr 2018 9:51 am 

    We (in US) are gonna see draws of six to eight million B’s by June. A cheap buck will inspire even
    greater (oil & gas) exports.
    At these prices, we are givin the shit away.
    If you’ve bought shale myths, then you should be a happy camper. If not, join me losing money.

  10. BobInget on Wed, 4th Apr 2018 10:13 am 

    Putin played a weak hand perfectly.
    Fascists are winning all over Asia and Europe.
    Thanks to Putin.

    Peak oil is so alive and well. In a year this web page will double or more in visits.

    This is by far the most exciting, dangerous time in modern history. Don’t turn your back on it.

  11. deadly on Wed, 4th Apr 2018 12:34 pm 

    Who cares about the Russians? Not even the Russians care about the Russians, why should anybody care about them?

    And then there are those Finns, they’re even worse, not much more or else can be tolerated. Not even the Irish. Keep the Norwegians fishing the fjords to keep them busy and away from everybody. Helga, go milk the cow.


    If I had an oil well pumping oil and it could pump ten thousand barrels per day, I would pump oil out of the thing until it would go dry, because it is going to go dry one day, it will be an old cow, for sure, but it won’t go dry tomorrow, so keep pumping oil and haul the stuff to market to buy a fat pig. Home again dancing a jig.

    640,000 USD per day for ten thousand barrels is ok with me. How about even more? Ok.


    Don’t the Russians have a trade balance of about twelve billion dollars in the black?

    And the US has a trade balance that is 56 billion dollars all in the red?

    The Russians can’t possibly be enjoying profits without being liars and cheats, America would never think of conducting itself like the lying cheating Russians who know how to make a buck; by defalcating funds that belong to someone else, that’s how they make their money. They’re horse-thieving culprits if there ever were any.

    Can’t fool anybody, especially Abraham Lincoln.

    It is an outrage, the Americans need to be better at defalcating funds in the forex markets, but they’re too dumb to figure it out.

    When you use less than you produce and then market the remaining oil, like about six million barrels each and every day, you are going to be a winner no matter what.

    You can call it lying and cheating but it is just doing business.

    Even if they are lying and cheating to make money, it is always better to always do business with them, they will one day realize their lying cheating ways and repent, want to give back, be a Good Samaritan, it will always pay in the long haul.

    Better to be patient.

    The US, however, doesn’t learn at all, and always uses ‘baffling them with bullshit’ tactics, a kind word and a gun, too.

    “Tricks and treachery are for fools who don’t have the brains to be honest.” – Benjamin Franklin

    I’ll take ‘liars and cheats’ for 20 trillion dollars, Alex.

    Who are the Russians? No.

    Uncle Sam? Who are the Venezuelans?

    No, Sorry. Hillary? Who are the ‘deplorables’?

    No, sorry, ‘Who are the Americans?’ is the correct answer.

    That’ll cost you 20 trillion dollars.

    I’ll take ‘dumbasses’ for 400 dollars.

    Who are the Americans? Correct.


  12. Cloggie on Wed, 4th Apr 2018 12:58 pm 

    Putin played a weak hand perfectly.
    Fascists are winning all over Asia and Europe.
    Thanks to Putin.

    One wonders what it takes to be categorized by Bob as a “fascist”. Probably someone with a certain unwillingness to be an voluntarily member of the US empire. There are indeed quite a few of those in the world, much to the horror of Bob.

    Since the end of World War II in 1945, few parties have openly described themselves as fascist and the term is instead now usually used pejoratively by political opponents.

    That would be Bob.

    As we all remember the original fascist state Italy killed less than 10 people internally throughout its two decades existence. The idea of fascism and national-socialism was to keep communism out, a movement Bob has far more sympathy with (probably ethnic thingy), despite the fact that communists in the USSR, China and other East-Asian hell holes killed many tens of millions.

    But as Bob will confirm, you can’t make an omelette without breaking an egg.

  13. Cloggie on Wed, 4th Apr 2018 2:41 pm

    An alliance Turkey-Iran in the Middle East would suffice to end European/American colonialism once and tor all.

    It looks like Russia is managing the entire process “from behind”.

  14. William on Wed, 4th Apr 2018 3:26 pm 

    Here we go again with absolute lie of peak oil by oil future investors trying to manipulate the market by false misleading information again. Price fixing is unlawful when you buy the future product to control the commodity by sales at higher prices. But up the commodity and thus control pricing by saling it at the higher price by controlling the market unlawful price fixing it is called.

  15. GregT on Wed, 4th Apr 2018 6:13 pm 

    “The latest chatter coming from OPEC is that it is fully committed to erasing the global glut.”

    Back in the day, pre-OilGlut™ we were paying 38 cents/litre. Today, with all of this excess production, we’re paying $1.45.

    The sooner Russia cuts the better. I’m sure that everyone is looking forward to ‘oil market rebalancing’, and $3.00/litre gasoline.

  16. makati1 on Wed, 4th Apr 2018 7:32 pm 

    rockman, you are correct. ALL oily numbers are only guesses and propaganda. Lies are common if they come from corporations or government. The financial chaos is only one misstep away.

  17. makati1 on Wed, 4th Apr 2018 7:36 pm 

    BTW: Gasoline here in the Ps is about $3.60/gallon. Diesel is about $2.60. Trucks/buses delivering goods/people have priority in pricing of fuel. Owning a car is discouraged by fuel pricing and taxes.

  18. MASTERMIND on Wed, 4th Apr 2018 7:48 pm 

    The Collapse of Civilization Manifesto

    Peak oil is not a myth -The Royal Society of Chemistry

  19. GregT on Wed, 4th Apr 2018 7:52 pm 

    We’re paying the equivalent of $4.28 USD per US gal here. Diesel is at par. Lots of taxes.

    My medical insurance however, costs me $23 CAD per month, and that covers everything except for dental, eyeglasses, and elective surgery.

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