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Page added on May 4, 2019

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Iran Warns OPEC Collapse Is Likely

Public Policy

Iran’s oil minister warned that OPEC is in danger of collapse as some nations seek to undermine their fellow members, an apparent reference to Saudi Arabia’s pledge to fill the supply gap created by U.S. sanctions on Iranian exports.

“Iran is a member of OPEC for its interests and any threat from member states won’t go unanswered,” Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said after a meeting with OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo in Tehran on Thursday, according to the oil ministry’s Shana news agency.

His comments come as U.S. President Donald Trump tries to cut the Islamic Republic’s oil exports to zero, backed by a promise from Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies to increase production to ensure the squeeze doesn’t create a supply shortage.

Those countries boosted production last year as the first round of American sanctions hit Iran, without splitting the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. This year, however, Iran is under even greater pressure, with fewer options to keep its economy afloat.

Zanganeh had already censured “two neighboring states” for voicing readiness to fill the gap of Iranian barrels in the market. “I told Mr. Barkindo that OPEC is in danger by the unilateralism of some members and the organization faces the risk of collapse,” he said on Thursday, stopping short of naming names.

The lost barrels, along with supply disruptions in Venezuela and elsewhere, have raised the question of whether OPEC’s biggest producers have a big enough supply buffer to keep the market in balance. Zanganeh last month accused Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates of exaggerating their surplus oil capacity.

Discord between OPEC’s Gulf members has shaken the organization in the past year. Qatar announced its exit in December after more than five decades of membership after its neighbor Saudi Arabia targeted the nation with an economic blockade.

“Qatar’s departure broke the seal. Iran’s would be much more serious, but no longer unthinkable,” said Derek Brower, an analyst at RS Energy Group. “Iran thinks two members are conspiring with the U.S. against it — a good enough reason for Tehran to consider it’s position.”

OPEC negotiations in December initially ran into difficulties because of disagreement between the Saudis and Iran, who are longstanding geopolitical foes, but in the end there was a deal. Yet setting aside Qatar’s departure, the group has held together for almost sixty years despite a range of political quarrels and conflicts, such as the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s and Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait the following decade.


6 Comments on "Iran Warns OPEC Collapse Is Likely"

  1. Sissyfuss on Sat, 4th May 2019 1:18 pm 

    Trump is not a uniter but a divider. He sows acrimony and distrust as a policy to get what he wants. That may work in NY real estate but not with religious and cultural enemies lusting for nuclear supremacy. Disbanding my bring the price down but not the hyperbole or the animus.

  2. Robert Inget on Sat, 4th May 2019 1:22 pm 

    Notice, even when two or more OPEC members
    commence killing each other, they leave oil wells and distribution choke points alone. When ISS was at its peak allies (those fighting ISS) didn’t
    bomb ISS oil wells. Moved to capture wells and refineries but never bomb those installations.
    Syrian oil wells were damaged but never seriously.

    Remember the Iraq/Iran oil war? Same thing. Pipelines were not off limits in the US/Iraq war.

    Saudi Arabian oil people did something far worse
    in Venezuela. AS the situation grew worse, as VZ oil-workers fled to greener pastures, KSA CELEBRATED. Less crude generated in Venezuela
    permitted MORE oil to be exported by KSA w/o
    over supply, effecting prices.

    In Yemen, the Saudis refrain from bombing oil works as they intended to capture those wells to bolster Saudi slowly failing domestic supply.

    BOTTOM LINE, the death of OPEC is being over blown.
    Money, power, trumps religion.

  3. Cloggie on Sat, 4th May 2019 1:59 pm 

    Remember the Iraq/Iran oil war? Same thing. Pipelines were not off limits in the US/Iraq war.

    Remember Kuwait-Iraq war?


  4. The Church Lady on Sat, 4th May 2019 5:24 pm 

    Is it any surprise Davy is a habitual liar. This explains why.

    “You are of your father the devil, and the desires of your father you want to do. He was a murderer from the beginning, and does not stand in the TRUTH, because there is no TRUTH in him. When he speaks a LIE, he speaks from his own resources, for he is a LIAR and the father of it.” John 8:44

  5. JuanP on Sat, 4th May 2019 5:37 pm 

    The Church Lady on Sat, 4th May 2019 5:24 pm


  6. The Church Lady on Sat, 4th May 2019 7:27 pm 

    Be damned, DAVY, for you are a destroyer of TRUTH.

    Be silenced ye WHORE of Babylon and FATHER of PROSTITUTES.

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