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Hedge Fund Manager Sees Dollar Losing Reserve Currency Status

Public Policy

With the end of 2018 marking the 40th anniversary of China opening up & reforming (and with an increasingly loud group of market participants questioning the foundations of China’s economic miracle – and more importantly, it’s future), Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio believes now is a good time to reflect on China’s last 40 years.

“Since I have been fortunate to have experienced 34 years of this 40 years in an up close and intimate way, and since I study what makes countries succeed and fail, I have some experiences and thoughts to share…”

The table below shows just a few representative statistics.

These results speak for themselves, but Dalio adds:

“To have such rates of improvements in so many areas and for so many people has made it the greatest economic miracle ever.”

And from what Dalio has seen, he believes that the very impressive results that the Chinese leadership and the Chinese people produced came about primarily because of the powerful combination of

a) China’s opening up and reforming following an extended period of isolation that led to a fast catching up (especially in the coastal regions of China) with the advanced developed world, and

b) the power of the Chinese culture and it’ related ways of operating.

Crucially, the billionaire hedge fund manager points out that, if you haven’t spent time in China, you need to get any stereotypes you might have out of your mind because it’s not how it was. This is not your father’s communism. It is “socialism with Chinese characteristics” that has been significantly and very effectively reformed, which has made it much more vital, creative, and economically free.

Dalio’s ‘romantic’ view of a paternal China is definitely not the mainstream narrative:

“From my experiences and from what I am told by Chinese who should know, I believe Chinese leadership seeks to run the country the way they believe a good family should be run, from the top down, maintaining high standards of behavior, putting the collective interest ahead of any individual interest, with each member knowing their place and having filial respect for those in the hierarchy so the system works in an orderly way. One of China’s leaders who explained this concept to me told that the word “country” consists of two characters, state and family, which influences how they view their role in looking after their state/family.

One might say that the Chinese government is paternal. For example, it regulates what types of video games are watched by children and how many hours a day they play them. As a broad generalization, when the interest of the country (like the family) is at odds with the interest of the individual, the interest of the country (like the interest of the family) should be favored over the interest of the individual. Individuals are parts of a greater machine. As a result of this perspective, the system seeks to develop, promote and reward good character and good citizenship. For example it gives people a social credit score that rates the quality of their citizenship. And each person is expected to view themselves as parts of the greater whole.

This management from the top down includes visualizing what China 5, 10 and 20 years in the future should be like and then making and managing detailed multiyear plans to build out that vision, with the goal being to make China as great as it can be. China is run more like a giant company with many subsidiaries, some within the government’s direct control and some within its indirect control.

But, as the fund manager notes, while Chinese culture has been evolving, it has at its most fundamental level been operating in similar ways for many hundreds or even thousands of years and the results of operating that way are knowable in an approximate way.

“I have recently been researching the rise and fall of reserve currencies, which led me to study the rises and declines of the world’s most powerful countries. That led my research team and me to put together the following indices of the relative powers of leading countries since 1500. These indices are a combination of six sub-indices that measure six different types of power:

1) innovation & competitiveness,

2) domestic output,

3) share of world trade,

4) financial-center size and power,

5) military strength, and

6) reserve-currency status.

…and they show when different countries reached their peaks relative to the rest of the world.”

As shown in the chart below, China was either the number one or number two most powerful country from 1500 to around 1800 when it went into relative decline…

That decline continued until around 40 years ago, when, as Dalio explains rather ominously for the American hegemon:

“…the opening up and reforming led to the previously described strong ascent to being the second-most powerful country in the world and on the path to being the most powerful one. I believe that excellent performance was largely the result of China’s powerful culture and its reforms.”

Given that impressive track record and how deeply imbued the culture behind it is, we shouldn’t expect China’s most fundamental ways of operating to change much. As a result, Dalio warns:

while trade deals can be made, attempts to change “Chinese characteristics”,most importantly to change the top-down government management of most/all aspects of the system pursuit of making China as great as it can bewon’t work.

So, in summary, “it’s not the economy, it’s the culture stupid!”

And judging by Dalio’s take on American culture, it is clear where he thinks this is going…

“Most fundamentally, the US is a country in which individuals, individualism, and individual property rights are perceived to be of paramount importance it is directed from the bottom up (e.g., through “one man, one vote” democracies that empower people to choose their leaders), being revolutionary is considered a good thing, and conflict is valued more than harmony.

Rather than respecting top down control most American have a strong preference to keep government from interfering with their most individual choices. Character development is a personal or family issue, not a government issue (which leaves it largely neglected in areas with broken families, especially if they’re poor).

Rather than there being a long-term top down vision for the country and a plan to achieve that vision, in the capitalist and democratic system such directions are more bottom up determined based on commercial and popularity considerations.

Of course, the world’s largest hedge fund manager avoids directly slamming America’s ‘dream’ or supporting China’s central planners:

I’m not saying which system is better. Each culture/system has its pros and cons that I’m not going to get into now.

I believe that the important thing to know are that while there will be trade wars and trade truces they aren’t the most important things.

However, Dalio signals the following seven things as the most important to follow:

1) China has a culture and system that has worked well for it for a long time so it shouldn’t be expected to change much,

2) the U.S. has the same,

3) these systems (and those of other countries) will be both competing and cooperating, and how well they do that will be an important influence on global conditions,

4) how well each system works in practice will have a far greater influence on where each country stands in the future than the terms of the deals that they strike with each other, so each would do well to examine its own weaknesses and come up with reforms to rectify them, and

5) there is a lot to respect about the Chinese culture and approach that led to its remarkable accomplishments,

6) we would do well to learn from each other, cooperate and compete to bring each other up rather than to tear each other down, and

7) China is a place we need to continue to evolve with and invest in.

And while Dalio took 2,500 words to summarize why America’s ‘end of empire’ is looming, we managed it in just three words… in 2014:

Nothing lasts forever!

zerohedge



83 Comments on "Hedge Fund Manager Sees Dollar Losing Reserve Currency Status"

  1. makati1 on Sun, 6th Jan 2019 7:12 pm 

    The dollar’s collapse is happening faster and faster. At some point it will lose all value as a trade currency. At that point the US will be openly 3rd world. Buckle up Americans. Reality will not be a nurf bat when it hits you between the eyes.

  2. Outcast_Searcher on Sun, 6th Jan 2019 9:07 pm 

    mak, looking at the dollar (DXY), it’s strong over 1 year and 5 year periods, and about even over 20 and 30 year periods.

    That’s the furthest thing from “collapsing faster and faster”. You talking about reality is really funny. Do you know what ironic means?

    But let’s listen to the almost always wrong zerohedge, because: constant doomer FUD. Let’s listen to a random hedge fund manager because they generally underperform stock mutual funds over time.

    In the modern world, where there is about $5 trillion traded daily in the FOREX markets, and anyone with a brain and means can easily build a net currency position of and liquid currency they want — by all mean’s, let’s endlessly squawk about the reserve currency, as though it mattered the way it did in the 70’s. Sure.

  3. makati1 on Sun, 6th Jan 2019 9:39 pm 

    Outcast, history is no promise of tomorrow.

    I am watching the decline of the dollar from far shores, not inside the propaganda box. I read and observe what is happening all over the world, not sucking up US MSM Koolaid. I exchange USDs as soon as I get them into Philippine Pesos so I am well aware of the dollar’s varying value.

    The dollar could collapse tomorrow. It is built on “faith” not solid things, like gold, that everyone values all thru history. Faith is vapors not reality. As are any of the hundreds of religions in the world today. They ALL have faith that theirs is the only true religion and their god is the only true god. Obviously that is impossible. So is the forever value of the US dollar. Vapors that will vanish someday.

    “Dollar Decline Versus Dollar Collapse” (2018)
    https://www.thebalance.com/dollar-decline-or-dollar-collapse-3306090
    “When Will the U.S. Dollar Collapse?” (2018)
    https://www.thebalance.com/when-will-the-u-s-dollar-collapse-3305691
    “What the Decline of the Dollar Means’ (2017)
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/20/business/dealbook/what-the-decline-of-the-dollar-means.html

    The rest of the world is seeing that the US dollar god is not real. It is only a means to enslave and destroy countries and people. Those countries that can, are moving away from the dollar as fast as possible. I think it will take only one more crash like 2008 to start the stampede to the exit and into other currencies. Will 2019 be that year? We shall see.

  4. Cloggie on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 12:17 am 

    No dollar reserve currency means loss of gdp of 35-40%.

    US falling back to Slovakia levels. The US already has the matching ‘FLOTUS’.

  5. Cloggie on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 12:19 am 

    Slovakia should read Slovenia.

  6. Davy on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 4:44 am 

    I am not particularly mainstream with my collapse process meme my view of the dollar diverges with both camps. I see the dollar continuing a gentle decline in line with a rising basket of other major currencies. US policy is going to push other nations to increasingly use bilateral trade arrangements avoiding the dollar. These are not yet significant but will over time accrue. The US financial condition is not good with no good in sight so there the safe haven effect of the dollar will decline. Yet, I do not see the dollar ever losing a significant place as a primary reserve currency. Instead the dollar along with others currencies will see a multipolar financial world reflecting the global economy and military. The dollar will end with globalism. Euro and Yuan are going down in a similar way but for different reasons As time goes on their financial position has declined more making the talk about alternative reserve currencies even more just talk.
    “King Dollar?”
    https://tinyurl.com/y82d3nc4

    Over the past two years, we have seen the most powerful set of circumstances for a sustained dollar rally that we have seen in many years, including: interest rate differentials, flight capital from China, substantial capital repatriation due to new tax laws, faster US GDP growth rates, QT vs. QE globally, tariffs making US products more attractive to purchasers, net US oil imports collapsing, etc.

    “Is This Downturn A Repeat Of 2008?”
    https://tinyurl.com/y9zzszfn

    “The long-term result of this global dollar shortage and emergency Fed policies of providing trillions of dollars in short-term USD credit and USD currency swap lines is that the dollar is more dominant now than it was before the crisis. The USD is now the anchor commercial currency for countries representing 70% of global GDP, up from 60% in 2000. As Tooze explains, “The world’s central banks effectively became offshore divisions of the Fed, conduits for whatever dollar liquidity the financial system required.”

  7. Davy on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 5:04 am 

    “The Eurozone Is In A Danger Zone”
    https://tinyurl.com/y79xcjg2

    “It is easy to conclude the EU, and the Eurozone in particular, is a financial and systemic time-bomb waiting to happen. Most commentary has focused on problems that are routinely patched over, such as Greece, Italy, or the impending rescue of Deutsche Bank. This is a mistake. The European Central Bank and the EU machine are adept in dealing with issues of this sort, mostly by brazening them out, while buying everything off. As Mario Draghi famously said, “whatever it takes.”

    “A side effect of the ECB’s asset purchase program has been the reduction of Eurozone bank lending to the private sector, which has been crowded out by the focus on government debt.”

    “The fact that banks are not serving the private sector helps explain why the Eurozone’s nominal GDP has stagnated, declining by 12% in the six largest Eurozone economies over the ten years to 2017. Meanwhile, the Eurozone’s M3 money increased by 39.2%. With both the ECB’s asset purchasing programs and the application of new commercial bank credit bypassing the real economy”

    “Our second danger sign is the massive TARGET2 interbank imbalances, which have not mattered so long as everyone has faith that it does not matter. This faith is the glue that holds a disparate group of national central banks together. Again, it comes down to the maintenance of asset values, because even though assets are not formally designated as collateral, their values underwrite confidence in the TARGET2 system. Massive imbalances have accumulated between the intra-regional central banks”

    “The ECB Itself is a Risk As stated above, the ECB through its various asset purchase programs has caused the accumulation of some €2.5 trillion of debt, mostly in government bonds. The euro system’s central banks now have a balance sheet total of €4.64 trillion, for which the ECB is the ringmaster. Most of this debt is parked on the NCBs’ balance sheets, reflected in the TARGET2 imbalances. The ECB’s subscribed equity capital is €7.74 billion and its own balance sheet total is €414 billion.3 This gives an operational gearing on core capital of 53 times. Securities held for monetary purposes (the portion of government debt purchased under various asset purchase programs shown on the balance sheet) is shown at €231 billion (it will have increased further in the current year). This means a fall in the value of these securities of only 3% will wipe out all the ECB’s capital. If the ECB is to avoid an embarrassing recapitalization when, as now seems certain, bond yields rise, it must continue to rig euro bond markets. Therefore, the reintroduction of its asset purchase programs to stop bond yields rising becomes the last fling of the dice. The debt trap Eurozone governments find themselves in has also become a trap for the ECB.”

  8. Davy on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 5:43 am 

    “Chinese Professor Censored After Admitting Real GDP Growth Is Below 2%”
    https://tinyurl.com/y7ec62qu

    “To the consternation of Chinese censors, a presentation delivered by an economics professor at Renmin University in Beijing sparked a controversy last month when the professor claimed that a secret government research group had estimated China’s growth in gross domestic product could be as low as 1.67% in 2018, far below the official rate. Even experts who are skeptical of the official data dismissed the presentation, delivered by a professor Xiang Songzuo, as unrealistic. Yet despite being scrubbed from Chinese social media and the mainland Internet, the presentation has been viewed 1.2 million times on YouTube (clip above), suggesting that Xiang’s warnings are resonating with everyday Chinese consumers, who are struggling with one of the worst-performing stock markets of 2018, a collapsing shadow lending sector, a crackdown on China’s vast online peer-2-peer lending infrastructure, and a currency that has weakened significantly over the past 12 months. To be sure, (almost) nobody is forecasting a recession in China or even a slowdown to sub-5% growth over the next two years (for the simple reason that Beijing would never allow such an admission due to social instability fears). But regardless of whether the presentation is accurate, it doesn’t change the fact that China’s economy has slowed…”

  9. Davy on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 5:50 am 

    “China has a dangerous dollar debt addiction”
    https://tinyurl.com/yau2wtqw

    China’s foreign debt has been rising rapidly, and that’s becoming an increasingly big problem — for the country and, potentially, the world. Officially, China lists its outstanding external debt at $1.9 trillion. For a $13 trillion economy, that’s not a major amount. But focusing on the headline number significantly understates the underlying risks. Short-term debt accounted for 62 percent of the total as of September, according to official data, meaning that $1.2 trillion will have to be rolled over this year. Just as worrying is the speed of increase: Total external debt has increased 14 percent in the past year and 35 percent since the beginning of 2017. External debt is no longer a trivial slice of China’s foreign-exchange reserves, which stood at just over $3 trillion at the end of November, little changed from two years earlier. Short-term foreign debt increased to 39 percent of reserves in September, from 26 percent in March 2016. The true picture may be more precarious. China’s external debt was estimated at between $3 trillion and $3.5 trillion by Daiwa Capital Markets in an August report. In other words, total foreign liabilities could be understated by as much as $1.5 trillion after accounting for borrowing in financial centers such as Hong Kong, New York and the Caribbean islands that isn’t included in the official tally.”

    “Beijing’s policies have exacerbated the buildup of foreign debt. To promote Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative, the president’s landmark foreign policy endeavor, China has been borrowing dollars on international markets and lending around the world for everything from Kenyan railways to Pakistani business parks. Bulls have long argued that China’s financial risks are contained because of the country’s low levels of external debt and large foreign-exchange reserves. That has changed. China’s external debt has been increasing by an average of $70 billion per quarter since the beginning of 2017. If it keeps rising, Beijing will have the unpalatable choice of burning through its reserves or letting the yuan fall, both of which would carry additional risks. China and the world need to think clearly about this growing dollar debt dependence. Any cessation of funding could have severe and unforeseen consequences.”

  10. Fat bastard on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 6:02 am 

    You been a busy boy Davy that’s a lot of posts are your fingers tired?

  11. Mick on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 6:08 am 

    Have you noticed how normal this forum becomes as soon JuanP is gone.

  12. Antius on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 6:32 am 

    Chinese dollar debt appears to be soaring and current account reserves are falling.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-06/china-s-dollar-debt-is-surging-and-that-spells-trouble

    There are also reports that real GDP growth rate has fallen beneath 2% pa.

    Regarding recent Chinese aggression over Taiwan and the South China Sea; could it be that Xi has realised that he faces a ‘now or never’ moment as his country stares into the abyss of a deflationary depression?

  13. Fat bastard on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 6:33 am 

    Yes Mick and seeing as you pinched my user name I’ve had to come up with another.

  14. Here we go again on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 7:31 am 

    Ahhh, like no one is concerned about trillions in deficit spending?
    Nope..not at all…sheeple are safe and sound while the wolves pounce

  15. Dredd on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 9:32 am 

    Who knew? (First Shots Fired In The Currency Wars, Monday, March 23, 2009)

  16. Duncan Idaho on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 10:18 am 

    “At that point the US will be openly 3rd world.”

    Eliminate California, Boston, and a few other places, it already is.

  17. JuanP on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 10:24 am 

    You sound more and more like Davy, Antius. Isn’t exceptionalism wonderful. You should focus on your own colapsing nation, England. China is just fine! LOL!

  18. Antius on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 10:56 am 

    “You sound more and more like Davy, Antius. Isn’t exceptionalism wonderful. You should focus on your own colapsing nation, England. China is just fine! LOL!”

    The United Kingdom certainly does have severe problems. In my own small way, I am making an effort to help resolve them. What I can achieve of course is limited and much of it is aimed towards undermining the government. It may indeed collapse; it is heavily indebted, real prosperity is falling; it is ruled by a paranoid totalitarian elite; and it has gone out of its way to import millions of third world parasites that prey upon its people and suck up its resources.

    But back to China. I personally doubt that China is just fine, given its soaring debt levels, declining domestic energy production and increasingly totalitarian regime. Its real GDP growth is much smaller than official figures suggest and it borrows ~30% of GDP each year – much higher than any economy in the west. It is literally eating itself. The declining EROI problem continues to push all industrial economies towards collapse, but the more rigid and totalitarian the ruling elites are, the more vulnerable they become.

  19. Davy on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 11:52 am 

    Antius, you can ignor JuanP. His comments reflect his emotions and mental state de jure.

  20. Davy on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 11:54 am 

    “Eliminate California, Boston, and a few other places, it already is.”

    The world would be a better place

  21. Davy on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 12:12 pm 

    Oops, sorry. I meant to say ‘du jour’ AND I was projecting again. Nobody on this board is as much of an emotional mental case as me.

  22. Davy on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 12:18 pm 

    “You been a busy boy Davy that’s a lot of posts are your fingers tired?”

    It’s not that hard really. I just go over to the hedge and copy and paste everything I can find that says bad things about China and Europe. The hardest part is making the tinyurls.

  23. Identity theft alert on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 12:38 pm 

    Pecker head juanp is mad again

  24. JuanPee Sock Puppeteering on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 12:54 pm 

    Identity theft alert on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 12:38 pm

  25. Davy on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 1:13 pm 

    Oops, sorry again. I also meant to say ignore. Not ignor.

    Does anybody no how I can turn the spell checker on on my stupid phone?

  26. JuanP on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 1:52 pm 

    It suck being me with nothing of value to say. I do the repetitious censorship efforts that just ruin this forum with childish activity. How stupid is sock puppets and identity theft especially when I am unable to make intelligent comments! I am wound tight and pissed off. I hate this!!

  27. More Davy Identity Theft on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 2:14 pm 

    JuanP on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 1:52 pm

  28. More Davy Identity Theft on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 2:18 pm 

    Mick on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 6:08 am

  29. More Davy Sock Puppetry on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 2:20 pm 

    Identity theft alert on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 12:38 pm

  30. More Davy Projections on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 2:22 pm 

    How stupid is sock puppets and identity theft

  31. Anonymouse on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 2:44 pm 

    Juan, give it up you are a loser and a fraud just like I am. I just don’t paint the board shit daily with my insecurities like you do. It is obvious you have manhood issues. Did they mistakenly neuter you when you had your much trumpeted vasectomy?

  32. More Davy Identity Theft on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 2:48 pm 

    Anonymouse on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 2:44 pm

  33. I AM THE MOB on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 2:52 pm 

    Data mining adds evidence that war is baked into the structure of society

    https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612704/data-mining-adds-evidence-that-war-is-baked-into-the-structure-of-society/?fbclid=IwAR3iopBxkWjjaWZc2_vXkNJhISSPU9_JlnPGRnjYjQd260waRbftVLTekfc

    War is just human nature..Sorry MadKat!

    Now bring on the false flag and lets get WW3 started! We need to kill around 2 billion people quickly!

    China or Russia which one will it be?

    Only time will tell!

  34. JuanP on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 3:09 pm 

    Anon, you are a stupid Canadian kid who is infatuated with mak. Do yo have daddy issues? That’s what Boney Joe thought when we were hanging around last night.

  35. JuanP on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 3:11 pm 

    Boy, it is nice when the Nazi is gone. He makes me feel like shit because I am brown.

  36. More Davy Identity Theft on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 3:24 pm 

    JuanP on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 3:09 pm
    JuanP on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 3:11 pm

  37. Davy Racism on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 3:27 pm 

    “He makes me feel like shit because I am brown.”

  38. I AM THE MOB on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 3:38 pm 

    Self-Driving Cars Will Always Be Limited. Even the Industry Leader Admits it.

    Don’t believe me? Listen to the CEO of Waymo.

    Waymo’s CEO, John Krafcik, now admits that the self-driving car that can drive in any condition, on any road, without ever needing a human to take control — what’s usually called a “level 5” autonomous vehicle — will never exist.

    At the Wall Street Journal’s D.Live conference on November 13, Krafcik said that “autonomy will always have constraints.” It will take decades for self-driving cars to become common on roads, and even then they will not be able to drive in certain conditions, at certain times of the year, or in any weather. In short, sensors on autonomous vehicles don’t work well in snow or rain — and that may never change.

    https://medium.com/radical-urbanist/self-driving-cars-will-always-be-limited-even-the-industry-leader-admits-it-c5fe5aa01699

    Sorry Clogg..This will teach you lessen in “putting the cart in front of the horse”.

  39. Cloggie on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 3:58 pm 

    OMG, Waymo-Google has found something else that never works, apart from renewable energy. Google should stay with their one-trick indexing pony. Real car competence is working on autonomous driving everywhere in the world.

    Technology is already far enough advanced to operate on highways and what in France is called Route Internationale, ring-roads, etc.. Traffic in cities can be done like now with buses, that can bring travelers to stations outside the city center.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYyogi_Szak
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1t7wxOttWM

    This was one of my first IT-projects in the Rotterdam Harbor, 30 years ago:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUHWUIURqi0

    The autonomous driving container vehicle has worked flawless ever since.

    But it seems that in 21st century America, people are mostly busy “proving” that something won’t work. And in America it therefore won’t work indeed. Because there is no will to make it work.

  40. I AM THE MOB on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 4:04 pm 

    The 2010 secret German Army peak oil study that leaked online accurately predicted the future..

    From the report;

    “Historical OECD studies show that only an increase and rise in prosperity can lead to open and tolerant societies..And set backs in economic growth lead to a rise in nationalism and extremism.”
    https://www.scribd.com/document/387459134/german
    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG…

    They accurately predicted the rise of Trump/Brexit and the far right populist movements.

    What else does the report forecast?

    “Oil is used in the production of 95% of all industrial goods, so a shortage of oil would collapse the world economy & world governments”

    Wow! And the IEA, Saudi’s and Goldman Sachs have just recently warned about an upcoming oil shortage.
    https://www.wsj.com/…/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-re…
    https://www.wsj.com/…/saudi-minister-sees-end-of-oil-price-…
    https://www.cnbc.com/…/goldman-sachs-there-will-be-an-oil-s…

    The more you know!

  41. Cloggie on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 4:38 pm 

    The 2010 secret German Army peak oil study that leaked online accurately predicted the future.

    Show us the sequel report, mobster.

    Oh wait, there isn’t any. According these Jerries, who traditionally do not understand oil, we should be in the middle of collapse now.

    We aren’t.

    This is far more interesting:

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2019/01/07/the-good-news-zog-is-dying/

  42. JuanP on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 4:39 pm 

    Don’t you just love this shit? ROFLMFAO! Keep up the good work!

  43. Antius on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 4:49 pm 

    In another 20 years, self driving cars are the only way car travel is going to be affordable for most people. If it cannot be made to work, then the car is going to become the reserve of an increasingly hated wealthy elite.

    Peak oil has been and gone. Peak fuel oil and peak diesel are several years past. Peak gasoline is only a little further down the line. The classic automobile is on borrowed time. Autonomous vehicles allow short range vehicles powered by lower grade energy sources to meet the bulk demand. It also allows the cost of the car to be shared across a lot of passengers. Without that flexibility, all cars need hundreds of km of range, et la the Tesla and people would need exclusive ownership. Probably not affordable to most people.

  44. Antius on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 5:09 pm 

    “Oh wait, there isn’t any. According these Jerries, who traditionally do not understand oil, we should be in the middle of collapse now.
    We aren’t.”

    We are. The crappy economic performance of the past ten years attest to it. We are now a decade past peak conventional oil. There has been no real economic growth since then. Debt has ballooned to 220% global GDP – levels that can never be repaid. Disposable wealth is down since 2005 just about everywhere. This is what collapse looks like. I think some people were expecting the zombie apocalypse, Rick Grimes included.

  45. JuanP on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 5:22 pm 

    “Don’t you just love this shit? ROFLMFAO! Keep up the good work!”

    Not sure what I meant by that but it must be me complimenting myself for something.

  46. makati1 on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 5:51 pm 

    Antius, we agree on this one. The collapse is ongoing. It is now becoming more and more visible. I expect the slippery slope to only get steeper and more bumpy as we descend. Some ups, some downs, but mostly downs until we reach an equilibrium across the planet. I may be living at that point already. Not a bad lifestyle, but definitely not the “American Dream”.

  47. More Davy Identity Theft on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 7:43 pm 

    JuanP on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 5:22 pm

  48. Cloggie on Tue, 8th Jan 2019 1:05 am 

    “We are. The crappy economic performance of the past ten years attest to it.”

    Totally at odds with what I see happening in Europe:

    – EU public debt declining
    – German unemployment at 30 year low
    – Tourism is becoming highly problematic everywhere in Europe: too much
    – Verify airline traffic: growth whereever you watch

  49. makati1 on Tue, 8th Jan 2019 2:28 am 

    Blind to reality Cloggie?

    “Industrial Orders Fall in Latest Sign of German Economic Slowdown” Not to mention bankrupt banks. Ditto Italy, Spain, etc.

    https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2019-01-07/industrial-orders-fall-in-latest-sign-of-german-economic-slowdown

    “European Union Unemployment Rate: 6.70% for Oct 2018” As reliable as, well, the US lies. LOL The US has the “lowest unemployment in 50 years” according to US lies. Yet there are over 40 million on food stamps and most college grads cannot find a job. Not to mention welfare, medicaid, tax credits, etc.

    https://ycharts.com/indicators/reports/eu_labour_force_survey

    And, I understand the sale of Yellow Vests is still brisk. “Violence Surges as Yellow Vests Attack French Government Ministry”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/05/world/europe/yellow-vests-protests-france-paris.html

    “French Yellow Vest Protests Spread Through Europe To Belgium And The Netherlands”

    https://www.theorganicprepper.com/french-yellow-vest-protests-spread-through-europe-to-belgium-and-the-netherlands/

    “78% in Europe fear Muslim migration, want tighter borders”

    https://www.onenewsnow.com/culture/2018/04/01/78-in-europe-fear-muslim-migration-want-tighter-borders

    And on and on… Oh yes! The place I want to live! NOT for a million Euros!!!!

  50. Don't start the shit stupid on Tue, 8th Jan 2019 3:14 am 

    More Davy Identity Theft on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 7:43 pm JuanP on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 5:22 pm

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