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Europe Looks Set for Energy Rationing After Russian Gas Cut

Public Policy

Energy rationing in Europe this winter is starting to look all but inevitable.

German officials on Saturday insisted that security of supply was guaranteed, at least for now, after Russia’s Gazprom PJSC made a last-minute decision not to turn the crucial Nord Stream pipeline back on after maintenance. Storage is filling up and new sources of gas are being procured.

But Klaus Mueller, president of the Federal Network Agency energy regulator warned last month that even with gas storage 95% full, there would only be enough for 2-1/2 months of demand if Russia switched off flows. German storage now stands at about 85%.

“The EU is now in the red zone as further demand destruction needs to take place,” said Thierry Bros a professor in international energy at Sciences Po in Paris. He estimates an extra 3% of demand needs to be cut.

The European Union has already created a voluntary 15% demand reduction target for gas, with the option of making it obligatory if needed. As energy ministers prepare to meet for an emergency meeting on Sept. 9, steps that seemed unthinkable before are now likely to be considered, according to EU diplomats.

Germany has its own emergency plan mapped out. The last stage — yet to be enacted — includes rationing.

Share of natural gas imports coming from Russia, 2020

Source: Eurostat, U.S. Energy Information Administration

Note: Data for 2020 are not available for the U.K. and Bosnia-Herzegovina, 2019 data are shown in those countries. Norway imported 10 million cubic meters of gas from Russia in 2020, but as a net exporter is not dependent on Russian imports

Europe’s politicians have been bracing for the prospect of supply cuts for weeks, and scrambling to find ways to cut demand. Industry is already shutting down and the euro is sliding because of the economic damage inflicted by Moscow’s energy war. As winter progresses, Europe’s resolve to keep backing Ukraine against Russia may be tested.

While the 15% gas demand cut that the EU is pushing for could allow the bloc to avoid rationing, governments have so far been slow to act to reduce consumption. The European Commission warned in July that an unusually cold winter or lower gas imports from alternative sources would boost the risk of “further drastic reductions.”

Gas prices had been dropping last week as traders increasingly expected Gazprom to reopen the link after signals from Moscow that a reopening was on the cards. Then in a last-minute move, just hours after the Group of Seven agreed to pursue a price cap on Russian oil, Gazprom said the link would stay shut as a fault had been found during maintenance.

Already at four times the level of a year ago, prices are set to jump on Monday, piling more pressure on industries and households — and on policy makers to act.

The complete halt of Nord Stream, which runs under the Baltic Sea to Germany, leaves only two major routes supplying gas to the European Union: one via Ukraine and one via TurkStream through the Black Sea. Flows through Ukraine have also been severely curbed, with only one of two legs operating.

Losing the key pipeline indefinitely also ramps up pressure on Germany to keep the nuclear power plants it had planned to close this year open for longer — a decision that would be controversial. The government says it’s still waiting for the results of stress tests before making a decision, but the move looks increasingly likely.

Extending two nuclear plants would save 2.3% of gas demand, BNEF calculates. That’s 5.4 million cubic meters a day.

“Nuclear extension is a no-brainer for Germany and it will definitely make a difference,” said Kesavarthiniy Savarimuthu, an analyst at researcher BloombergNEF. “Every mcm of gas is critical for security of supply and to continue reducing gas demand in power sector.”

With Nord Stream shut and flows via Ukraine curbed, much now depends on the weather.

October, the start of the winter heating season, so far looks set to be mild with above normal temperatures expected in the north and west of Europe, according to Maxar Technologies LLC. How soon it gets cold will determine how quickly Europe burns through its supplies of gas in storage.

Asia and Europe compete for liquefied natural gas and if winter is particularly cold in both regions, there’s a risk gas in European storage could run out toward the end of winter. Policy makers will be hoping for Spring to come early.

“It will be a challenging for Germany to get through the winter,” said Penny Leake, a research analyst at consultancy Wood Mackenzie Ltd. “It will undoubtedly result in demand curtailments.”

bloomberg


11 Comments on "Europe Looks Set for Energy Rationing After Russian Gas Cut"

  1. this is looking like holomodor of europe and this war is promoted by elite whitey (((supertards))) and a few useful idiots elite whitey supertards like supertard KAT on Mon, 5th Sep 2022 6:56 am 

    elite whitey (((supertard))) stalin killed millions of elite whitey supertard UKE

    elite whitey (((supertard))) Stalin killed 60 million elite whitey supertards

    modern elite whitey (((supertards))) will cause elite whitey supertards in the EU to freeze to death.

    it’s all the same.

    supertards please change ur undies after 3 days

    please feel at ease among friends we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here

  2. if elite whitey supertards cant detach from the virus theory of the covid then how can elite whitey supertards detach from (((supertard))) theory of the nukular bomb for the convid and hiv we see how the flawed PCR test which was developed by on Mon, 5th Sep 2022 8:40 am 

    elite whitey supertard kary mullis

    now elite whitey (((supertards))) say a phone app will detect convid using sound frequency

    the reason i urged immediate amputation of elite whitey supertard thunderf00t back in 3/2020 is because this supertard went on self imposed quarantine for convid when it first started

    supertards please change ur undies after 3 days

    please feel at ease among friends, we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here

  3. Theedrich on Mon, 5th Sep 2022 5:11 pm 

    Eurocrazies say Russia is causing their problems. The fact that the U.S. and its European vassals decided they needed to seize global power at Russia’s expense has nothing to do with the quagmire Europe now finds itself in, claim the virtue-signalers.

    This determination to commit civilizational collapse cannot be deterred by reason or facts. America’s political elites, knowing that peak fossil fuel was closing in on their glory days, are making a desperate attempt to conquer the world using every techical, propaganda and economic means at their disposal. In the old days, they would simply have nuked their prey using some quasi-religious excuse, as they have always done. But when the prospective targets have nuclear weapons, the vicars of Christ and Moses decide to use other ways to achieve their ends. Hence NATO’s encroachment on Russia and the U.S. overthrow of governments by allegedly “democratic” means.

    The U.S. electorate prefers to remain blissfully ignorant of its government’s corruption and mass murders. Consequently, a demented, morally rotting figurehead now occupies the Washington throne.

    The result must necessarily be the demise of the Imperium Americanum.

  4. makati1 on Mon, 5th Sep 2022 5:13 pm 

    Stalin’s death toll: 9 to 60 million. No accurate figure.

    US death toll in their wars of choice: 20+ million and ongoing. Not to mention debt servitude and starvation.

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/us-has-killed-more-than-20-million-people-in-37-victim-nations-since-world-war-ii/5492051

    Currently taking down Europe/NATO.

  5. why elite whitey supertards useful idiots in phils and the west pour gasoline in ukraine theater for the industrial war slaghter of elite whitey supertards on Mon, 5th Sep 2022 6:26 pm 

    elite whitey (((supertard))) stalin killed 60M elite whitey supetards, who cheered for this back then? easy to google search

    present time we know elite whitey supertards who cheer for this slaughter.

    this war is modern deadly and industrial. elite whitey supertards should’d learned from WW1 UNO and stop this project of elite whitey (((supertard)))

    supremetard won’t be plesed

    supertards please change ur undies after 3 days

    please feel at ease among friends we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here.

  6. On This Day... Sep 05, 2016: Kabul, Afghanistan Suicide bombers strike a charity for children: 41 Killed on Mon, 5th Sep 2022 6:31 pm 

    supertards please change ur undies after 3 days

    please feel at ease among friends we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here.

  7. makati1 on Tue, 6th Sep 2022 5:52 pm 

    I live in the real world, Not the person who hides behind long avatar bullshit names and is likely high on illegal drugs. But then, they deserve what is coming. So be it.

  8. FamousDrScanlon on Wed, 7th Sep 2022 12:35 pm 

    The only Green is money because money is…

    Europe Is Sacrificing Its Ancient Forests for Energy

    Governments bet billions on burning timber for green power. The Times went deep into one of the continent’s oldest woodlands to track the hidden cost.

    “People buy wood pellets thinking they’re the sustainable choice, but in reality, they’re driving the destruction of Europe’s last wild forests,” said David Gehl of the Environmental Investigation Agency, a Washington-based advocacy group that has studied wood use in Central Europe.

    The industry has become so big that researchers cannot keep track of it. E.U. official research could not identify the source of 120 million metric tons of wood used across the continent last year — a gap bigger than the size of Finland’s entire timber industry. Researchers say most of that probably was burned for heating and electricity.

    The E.U. consumes more wood pellets than any other region

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/07/world/europe/eu-logging-wood-pellets.html

    Everybody is lying except the nations and people who have nothing

    It’s all the humans care about. Wash off the sugar coating and money is……..

    https://youtu.be/JXy6tuetD-k

  9. Hello on Wed, 7th Sep 2022 1:26 pm 

    >>>> they’re driving the destruction of Europe’s last wild forests

    Wood (or lack of) was an issue for europe already 200 years ago. But then came coal and then came oil to the rescue. Without coal and oil, europe is back at scraping. But this time with way more population and a population who feels entitled.

    A good energy and economic shock will do europe good. Maybe, just maybe, they will start thinking twice about importing sludge.

  10. FamousDrScanlon on Wed, 7th Sep 2022 5:18 pm 

    Ancient slash-and-burn in Europe

    New study reveals hunter-gatherers in Europe used slash-and-burn cultivation methods.

    “Researchers from the University of Tübingen have drilled cores into the Ammer Valley in southern Germany to study ancient fire usage and the extent that climate change and anthropogenic activity changed the local environment. Using plant pollen and charcoal fragments, they showed that between 10,100 and 9,800 years ago, open and moisture-rich vegetation was burnt by natural fires. These fires attracted herbivores, also the growth of hazel trees with their nutritious nuts.

    About 9,500 years ago, the hunter-gatherers in the region began to use slash-and-burn methods to modify the environment. Deciduous trees were now dominant and easily controlled with small, but frequent, fires. This allowed the hunting bands to encourage the growth of hazel and other nut-bearing trees, whose harvests yielded significant amount of easily storage winter food. The fires also led to the growth of young grass and other vegetation, much favoured by forest game of all kinds, making hunting easier, especially when carried out with bows-and-arrows equipped with the razor-sharp small barbs known to archaeologists as ‘microliths’.”

    https://www.archaeologyworldwide.com/post/ancient-slash-and-burn-in-europe

    “..also the growth of hazel trees with their nutritious nuts.”

    Ah ha! that is why the Europeans have so much Hazelnuts & put them in cookies, chocolate bars and Nutella and other Hazelnut spreads.

    If you love hazelnuts, thank way back hunter-gather granddad in your prayers.

    Ice Age hunters burned down Europe’s forests by starting wildfires

    This may be one of the earliest examples of humans altering their natural environment.

    “For years, researchers have tried to model what Europe may have looked like during the last Ice Age, which peaked about 21,000 years ago and ended about 11,500 years ago. They have reconstructed the vegetation using pollen and plant fossils, showing that most of the continent may have been characterised by steppe and tundra-like landscapes.”

    https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ice-age-hunters-burned-down-europes-forests-by-starting-wildfires-1595077

    …..

    Earliest human-made climate change took place 11,500 years ago

    The earliest geological indication of humans’ impact on the environment discovered in the Dead Sea

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/06/170605110059.htm

    It would go a lot better for the humans if they could just let go of their delusion of free will.

    Give up the fight and, like beavers, except that unending destructive behavior is in your nature. Human nature.

    Want to Solve Wildfires and Drought? Leave it to BEAVERS!

    https://youtu.be/6lT5W32xRN4

  11. peakyeast on Sun, 11th Sep 2022 2:35 am 

    As our politicians said: Its a sacrifice we are willing to make… Like the politicians are sacrificing anything….

    But actually… as a citizen – I am willing to sacrifice our leaders since they at the very best provide about the same value as throwing a dice.

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