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Page added on December 28, 2012
Don’t Be Surprised If There’s A War Between Japan And China In The Next Year
Chinese planes flew near Japanese airspace Monday to assert its claims to Japan’s Senkaku islands (China calls them the Diaoyu islands).
The move came just as Japan announced its new prime minister.
Hugh White, a professor at Australian National University and a former Australian defense official, believes this is the latest sign the two countries are heading to war.
And the U.S. will be dragged in.
Writing in the Sydney Morning Herald, White says we are now witnessing the types of conditions that have historically led to war — despite conflict being in no one’s interest.
THIS is how wars usually start: with a steadily escalating stand-off over something intrinsically worthless. So don’t be too surprised if the US and Japan go to war with China next year over the uninhabited rocks that Japan calls the Senkakus and China calls the Diaoyu islands. And don’t assume the war would be contained and short.
…
It seems almost laughably unthinkable that the world’s three richest countries – two of them nuclear-armed – would go to war over something so trivial. But that is to confuse what starts a war with what causes it.
The conflict is really about China challenging the U.S. in the Pacific, White says. President Obama has vowed a Pentagon “pivot to Asia,” itself a response to China’s growing strength.
Claiming the Senkaku islands, a series of small outcroppings in the East China Sea, is China’s way of testing America’s new posture, White says.
And it’s this kind of tit-for-tat that inevitably causes someone to open fire.
The risk is that, without a clear circuit-breaker, the escalation will continue until at some point shots are exchanged, and a spiral to war begins that no one can stop. Neither side could win such a war, and it would be devastating not just for them but for the rest of us.
No one wants this, but the crisis will not stop by itself.
17 Comments on "Don’t Be Surprised If There’s A War Between Japan And China In The Next Year"
Arthur on Fri, 28th Dec 2012 2:44 pm
I wonder how a defeat of China would look like? US military base in Shanghai? Fact is, modern warfare is far more brutal than it was before 1800. 1914 nothing less than unconditional surrender is acceptable, to be achieved, if necessary, after total destruction of the adversary. Mondern war is very difficult to stop once it erupts. Attempts for instance by Germany, both in WW1 and WW2 (sixteen times according the British Foreign Office between 1939-1941), to make peace, are seen as a sign of weakness and encourage the opponents to carry on.
PrestonSturges on Fri, 28th Dec 2012 4:44 pm
China does that and the US declares war in China, and all we do is declare that their bonds are now worthless. China is vaporized with a stroke of the pen. Would it hurt the dollar? Maybe a little, but the rest of the world woudld be too busy applauding.
Rick on Fri, 28th Dec 2012 5:09 pm
@ PrestonSturges
Sorry, China owns the US. The US would be vaporized. No one wins if this happens.
Arthur on Fri, 28th Dec 2012 5:28 pm
Preston has it all figured out and in all earnest believes that the world will be applauding a mass murder to the tune of hundreds of millions. Wake up, the US government is not half as popular in the world as you think, not even in the UK. Concerning the ‘vaporization’ business, you are going to be vaporized with it… I will promise not to applaude that event.
http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/china-news/nuclear-arsenal-in-china-much-bigger-than-believed-says-expert-258565.html
China has more than enough nukes to take out every US city you can remember the name of. If China goes, you will be going with it.
Bor on Fri, 28th Dec 2012 6:48 pm
China is vaporized…
USA is vaporized…
What a beautiful conversation.
The intellectual level of a constantly
masturbating 12-year old.
Bravo.
MrEnergyCzar on Fri, 28th Dec 2012 7:45 pm
The US will be dragged in and quickly leave when China picks up the phone to dump our currency…
MrEnergyCzar
PrestonSturges on Fri, 28th Dec 2012 8:19 pm
>>>>Preston has it all figured out and in all earnest believes that the world will be applauding a mass murder to the tune of hundreds of millions.
No doofus, China goes “poof” when the US tells them we aren’t going to repay their loans beause we are at war with them.
PrestonSturges on Fri, 28th Dec 2012 8:32 pm
Also, China is less and less able to exert military might because they are dependent on foreign oil and foreign food. Lacking an effective deepwater navy, china would not be able to mount even a minimal response to a blockade. And invading Japan would not help them because Japan is notoriously poor in natural reseources.
China isn’t going to do anything except maybe grab some little islands.
And in a real shooting war, Chinese megacities and megainfrastructure projects are all huge bullseyes. What would happen to Hong Kong if the power were simply cut for a couple months? What would happen if the Three Gorges Dam got knocked down?
Arthur on Fri, 28th Dec 2012 9:19 pm
“And in a real shooting war, Chinese megacities and megainfrastructure projects are all huge bullseyes.”
Sure, and for some mysterious reason the US megacities would be exempt from a retaliation. Call their bluff… China has too many people anyway, even according to their own leadership. Blockade? The Russians would be more than happy to have China embroiled with the US (and so would secretly Europe) and they would make sure that the Chinese would have enough fuel to at least wage war against the US. And as I have said numerous times before, fleets in 2013 are completely USELESS with Chinese MACH5-10 missiles around, so forget your blockade. How about these famous ‘boots on the ground’? LOL. Remember Vietnam, Somalia, Iraq/Greenzone, Afghanistan, Lebanon? Get real, Americans are consumers, not warriors. China has all the cards, not the US, that will behave like a cry baby from 40,000 deaths onwards (Vietnam). America will simply fall apart when the going gets tough. Forget about Mexican invaders being willing to die for Washington, they will secede. China can dump the dollar. I wonder who will side with the US. Israel? Probably. Marshall Islands? Sure!
Happy Kwanzaa and dream on!
Andrew DeWit on Fri, 28th Dec 2012 9:33 pm
Don’t be absurd. This isn’t an American movie. If there’s a war, then it will be contained and the Japanese will have to eat vast plates of youknowwhat. Neither the US nor China want escalation. The key will be whether the Americans can find some loophole out of being dragged into a mess that former Tokyo Gov Ishihara (now head of the Restoration Party) set up with his effort to buy the Senkaku Islands. He’s the guy who wrote the “Japan That Can Say No.” He’s helping to build a Japan that will have to say “Yes,” “Uncle,” and anything else the Chinese and Americans say.
Pretty dumb for an ageing, indebted society to elect nationalist ideologues and turn itself into a no-man’s land between two contending powers.
ken nohe on Fri, 28th Dec 2012 10:39 pm
Amish, Luddites, warmongers, anxiously awaiting for the end of civilization… Interesting lot!
Whatever a lone Australian specialist may think, a war between Japan and China remains unlikely. To have war in the 21st century you need escalation and the economic consequences would quickly give plenty of food for thoughts and chances to stop the madness before it goes too far.
But the main reason why we won’t have war is that neither country is prepared for one. China does not have a navy to speak of and Japan has no offensive capabilities. So Japan cannot attack and China would loose every skirmish over Japanese land. And even if escalation happened in spite of cooler tempers, an embargo on raw materials would starve both countries very quickly. This said, you can do a lot of economic damage without a war and especially in a world heading into another economic recession… Doomers rejoice, all is not lost!
PrestonSturges on Sat, 29th Dec 2012 12:06 am
America spent itself into a stupor during the Cold War because they were afraid of Russian super weapons (many of which were later discovered to have never existed) and a Russian economy that was supposedly at least three times larger than it really was. So we were all shocked when the USSR collapsed. Then we went to iraq in pursuit of WMD that did not exist.
Having run out of reasons to bankrupt ourselves, the defense industry needs to gin up another nonexistent threat. That brings up Iran and China, and if Romney had been elected, plans for war with Iran would be rolling inexorably forward. But Mittens lost, so now we have to hear about how the Chinese are 12 feet tall, breath fire, and shoot laser beams from their eyes.
PrestonSturges on Sat, 29th Dec 2012 12:15 am
Too much humor here to pass up:
“……Sure, and for some mysterious reason the US megacities would be exempt from a retaliation. Call their bluff…..”
And that would happen how?
“…. Blockade? …. And as I have said numerous times before, fleets in 2013 are completely USELESS with Chinese MACH5-10 missiles around, so forget your blockade….”
Can they shoot all the way to the Philipines and Australia? Because our allies would not be loading Chinese ships with the goods China desperately needs.
“…..How about these famous ‘boots on the ground’? LOL. Remember Vietnam, Somalia, Iraq/Greenzone, Afghanistan, Lebanon? Get real, Americans are consumers, not warriors. China has all the cards, not the US, that will behave like a cry baby from 40,000 deaths onwards (Vietnam). America will simply fall apart when the going gets tough.”
Thank you Bagdhad Bob.
“….China can dump the dollar.”
Yes and they can go back to eating tree bark and stray children, because the Yuan is not a viable reserve currency. The rest of the world would be happy to prop up the dollar and let China collapse while reabsorbing all the manufacturing jobs and enjoying a general collapse in commodities prices. It could be a global economic boom for everyone except China.
Arthur on Sat, 29th Dec 2012 12:38 am
I do not believe in all out war between China-Japan-US either over a few rocks. Maybe some skirmishes, but that will be it. The real action will start in the Gulf, if something is going to happen at all. Let’s first see if Obama can outmaneuver AIPAC and get Hagel appointed, maybe he can contain the kosher gang. My fear is that internal unrest (OWS 2.0) triggered by inescapable austerity measures, will force the US leadership to follow a war path. After all, the US or the dollar or US finances are not important for the Eternal Reolutionaries… world government is.
BillT on Sat, 29th Dec 2012 4:36 am
Apparently Preston has a fatal case of ‘patriotic flag waving’ and no idea of reality.
1. China has missiles and subs that can fire them and hit most American cities with multi-head nukes. No need for obsolete aircraft carriers.
2. Yes, they can easily hit the Philippines and since the Chinese are already in Australia, no need for them there.
3. No American or NATO troops will get close to China’s shores. The Navy knows this and will not try a landing. All other avenues of approach are through either China’s allies or over terrain that America cannot penetrate because of distance.
4. As for the dollar. What do you think keeps the Empire at bay? The very fact that they could dump the dollar and absorb the loss easily. They already trade in other currencies AND gold with their major trading partners. (The US is no longer one of them.) That phone call to Bennie would destroy the WEST in a few days or weeks at most.
Preston, China is not what you pretent to think they are. They are a major power in today’s world and are more in control than the want to believe. Sorry. I have the vantage point of living in the Philippines and get news you only dream about.
LT on Sat, 29th Dec 2012 5:38 pm
I do not take side, just observe and see as follow:
If there is a war tomorrow between China and the US, I think, the US will win.
If there is a war tomorrow between China and Japan, both countries will suffer heavily. Japan will suffer because Japan has less weapons than the US. China will suffer because most important targets in china lie along the coast. Ten of millions of poor china migrant workers have been longing for opportunity to lynch those greedy communist officials. Only a few missiles land in each cities: shanghai, Beijing, Hongkong, Tienjin, Nanjing, Wuhan, Chongqing, will make China implode with social unrest caused by the rich and poor gap, injustice, and land grasp.
But if Japan or the US or both ever want to fight with china, they will not fight it alone. It is simply unwise to do so. Instead, they will find a way to first overthrow Vietnam communist regime. Gaining a foot hold in VN and 90 million Vietnamese souls who are willing to fight the chinese to death provided that they are equiped and supplied is a big advantage for a Sino-US campaign or Sino-Japan campaign.
As for Russia, the Russian are known world wide for their chess-playing capability. All the Russian want is “give me a respect” if you are a superpower whoever you are. Therefore, if china and us go to war, Russia will only do lip service to help china. That’s all. Why create an extra powerful enemy when one doesn’t need to?
The bottom line is, I think, war between China and US only occurs when uncle Sam feels the world system (himself included) has been rotten beyond repair, and in need a new life, he (uncle Sam)will press the reset button. And I feel it is more likely to happen during the first half of this century than the second half.
Arthur on Sun, 30th Dec 2012 12:22 am
I doubt that Uncle Samuel will make it until the second half of this century. Pat buchanan could be right on this one.
http://www.amazon.com/Suicide-Superpower-Will-America-Survive/dp/B007SRWKXS
Not sure about reset… contraction more likely. Expect people to attend church again, just like in the ME after 1980, once economic growth is no longer possible. All that remains is the Spirit… and I do not mean the bottle.