Register

Peak Oil is You


Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)


Page added on March 25, 2020

Bookmark and Share

COVID-19: How Corona Broke the System

COVID-19: How Corona Broke the System thumbnail

By Marc Saxer
International Politics and Society

No one knows how long the pandemic will last, how many people will fall ill, how many lives the coronavirus will claim. But the economic and political consequences of the outbreak are already emerging. Measures to contain the pandemic are disrupting public life around the world.

Starting with China, production has come to a standstill in one country after another. Global supply chains are broken. You don’t need a lot of imagination to see a wave of bankruptcies approaching in many industries where every last cent counts.

In the past few days, panic buying has dominated media coverage. However, anxious consumers tend to postpone larger purchases. When shortages appear, consumption also drops. These upheavals are likely to cause the already sluggish European economies to slide into recession.

The sudden slump in Chinese demand has shaken the commodity markets. After the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could not agree with Russia to cut production in order to stabilise prices, Saudi Arabia changed its strategy and flooded the markets with cheap oil. As a result, the oil price plummeted to historic lows. In the short term, this might provide a measure of relief to industry and consumers. However, oil price wars, fears of recession and calamities on the bond markets are causing the stock markets to crash. Only a far-reaching intervention by all major central banks has so far staved off a financial crunch.

The Economic Response

Some countries, Germany in particular, have quickly launched extensive packages of measures to cushion the impending economic crisis. After some initial wavering, the United States is also planning a comprehensive economic stimulus, including the unprecedented dispersal of helicopter money. Whether these and other potential immediate measures are sufficient to stop the economic downturn depends on how deeply the crisis eats through the system. After past epidemics, a brief, sharp slump, the economy was usually followed by a quick return to growth. Whether this will also be the case with the corona crisis depends on many factors, not least how long the pandemic lasts.

However, of greater concern are the shock waves that are now running through the ailing financial systems, where they are accelerating worrying longer-term trends. Many American industries and households are over-indebted. In China, shadow banks, real-estate enterprises and state-owned companies, along with the provinces, are all straining under the debt burden. The European banks have not yet recovered from the previous financial crisis. The economic collapse in Italy could cause the euro crisis to flare up all over again. The way in which investors are fleeing for the safety of government bonds indicates the deep fear that these houses of cards will collapse. The corona crisis could set in motion a chain reaction that would end in a global financial crisis.

A Republic of Korea Army Soldier assists a U.S. Army soldier in donning personal protective equipment before sanitizing a COVID-19 infected area during a joint disinfecting operation in Daegu, South Korea, March 13, 2020. (U.S. Army, Hayden Hallman)

Unlike the 2008 crisis, however, this time the central banks are not in a position to save the day. To date, interest rates have been at historic lows in all major economies. The US Federal Reserve has therefore started to provide liquidity directly to the markets through repo transactions. The new head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, initially stumbled on the European crisis response, thereby provoking speculation against the cohesion of the the euro group. By means of a coordinated intervention, however, all major central banks have now shown their determination to take a stand against the panic in the markets. The crucial question, however, is whether the Corona crisis can be overcome with monetary policy instruments at all. That very much depends on the nature of the crisis.

Democracies Now Have to Deliver

This is because the crisis is by no means limited to the economic sphere. The ability of states to protect the life and limb of their own citizens, is also being put to the test – and the stakes are nothing less than the fundamental legitimacy of the Leviathan.

In the authoritarian regimes of Eurasia, the main issue is the legitimacy of the strongmen, whose claim to power is based on the central promise “I protect you.”. Chinese President Xi Jinping has understood this and, accordingly, is taking drastic measures against the spread of the virus regardless of the costs. However, his counterparts in Thailand, the Philippines and Brazil have treated control of the disease lightly and are now being lashed out at by their own supporters. The question of whether, in the eyes of his voters, President Donald Trump lives up to his central promise to protect America from external threats is likely to have a decisive impact on the outcome of the American elections.

An international pandemic cries out for a coordinated global response. So far, however, each nation has pursued a solo effort.

While the corona crisis may be disenchanting populists in government, it could be just what their counterparts in opposition have been waiting for. In the eyes of many citizens, the democratic states already lost control in the crises of 2008 and 2015. Decades of austerity policies and of health care systems cut back to the absolute minimum have hollowed out state structures; many people worry whether their nations will still be able to cope with major crises. In many countries, the public mood is turning against the free movement of money, goods and people.

Many Italians have long feared to be among the losers of globalisation and the euro. Now come the emergency measures, the economic shock and yet another refugee crisis. The Lombard right-wing populist Matteo Salvini is not the only one who knows how to use the ingredients of “open borders, dangerous foreigners, corrupt elites, and defenseless states” to mix a toxic brew. Make no mistake, the liberal democracies of Western Europe are under scrutiny. In the midst of a right-wing populist revolt, democrats must now prove that they can and will protect the lives of all citizens.

But how far can individual liberties be restricted? How long should the state of emergency last? Would Western societies tolerate drastic measures like those in China? Should they, like the East Asians, give priority to the collective over the individual? How can the rate at which the disease is spreading be slowed down if citizens do not adhere to the recommendations on “social distancing?” And what does solidarity with others mean when the only thing we can do is to isolate ourselves?

Each Nation on Its Own

An international pandemic cries out for a coordinated global response. So far, however, each nation has pursued a solo effort. Even within Europe there is a lack of solidarity. As in the euro crisis and the refugee crisis, Italy in particular feels that its partners have let it down. China cleverly took advantage of the lack of European solidarity and sent a plane to Italy, its Belt and Road partner country, loaded with medical supplies. In the meantime, Berlin has recognized the geopolitical dimension of the dual crises – coronavirus and refugees – and is concerned about the attempts by external powers to divide Europe. The export ban on medical protective equipment was eased again and Italy was assured of emergency aid in the form of one million face masks. More importantly, the European Stability Pact was suspended to give Italy enough fscal breathing room to save its economy.

The crisis is another stress test for the already heavily burdened transatlantic partnership. Trump’s decision to isolate the United States from its European allies without consulting them has sent a clear signal. The American attempt to take over CureVac, a company based in Tübingen, to secure the vaccine exclusively for the United States, even escalated into a heated dispute with Berlin. Any joint, coordinated crisis response is hardly conceivable under these conditions. In the West, the byword so far has been ‘Every man for himself.’

Curevac in Tübingen. (Dktue, CC0, Wikimedia Commons)

At the global level, the new conflicts between major powers are fuelling the crisis even more. The oil price war in particular is driven by geo-economic motives. The conflict between Saudi Arabia and Russia raises questions about the survival of the OPEC cartel. The big loser in the historic drop in prices could ultimately be the heavily indebted American shale oil industry. So if cheaper prices at the petrol pumps are really a blessing, as the US President promised, depends on who can endure this war of attrition the longest. In any case, Russia and Saudi Arabia have a key interest in knocking out their debt-financed American competitor.

Whatever the outcome of the oil price war, the balance of power in the oil markets will be readjusted. The debate about “peak oil,” which has been raging for decades, should also experience an interesting turn. In the end, it might not be a dwindling supply of fossil fuels that will seal the decline of the oil industry. With permanently low prices, it might simply be no longer economically viable to exploit the remanining reserves. Could a geo-economic conflict unintentionally herald the end of the fossil age?

The crisis is also fueling the U.S.-China hegemony conflict. For some time now, there is a bipartisan consensus in Washington to decouple the American from the Chinese economy so as not to strengthen the competitor for global supremacy by supplying Beijing with its money and technology. Globally positioned companies now need to re-assemble their supply chains overnight. Will all of these corporations return to China when the immediate crisis is over? Corporate executives would then have to think twice whether to willingly ignore the geopolitical marching orders from Washington.

And how will Europe’s companies reposition themselves after the crisis, after the costs of being overly dependent on Chinese supply chains have become all too clear? In the debate over whether the Chinese company Huawei should be excluded from the expansion of the European 5G infrastructure, Europeans already had a taste of how great American pressure can be. The corona crisis could then accelerate a development that has been going on for some time: deglobalisation. As a result, the global division of labor could disintegrate into competing economic blocs.

Overnight, the Age of Neoliberalism Coming to an End

Markus Söder in 2012. (Michael Lucan, Lizenz: CC-BY-SA 3.0 de, Wikimedia Commons)

Suddenly everything is happening very quickly. Within hours, such large sums are being pumped into the markets that make the “radical” promises of Democratic presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders seem like pocket money in comparison. German politicians, who yesterday had gotten heated up by the intellectual musings of young socialist Kevin Kühnert, are now seriously considering the nationalization of corporations. What was dismissed in the climate debate as the naive dreams of children is now a sad reality: global air traffic is coming to a standstill. Borders that were considered unclosable in the refugee crisis are now indeed closed. And along the way, conservative governor of Bavaria, Markus Söder has abandoned the German fetish of balanced budgets, announcing, “We will not be guided by accounting issues, but by what Germany needs.”

The age of neoliberalism, in terms of  the primacy of market interests over all other social interests, is coming to an end. Of course, all of these measures are due to the state of emergency. However, citizens will remember them when they soon again are told ‘There is no alternative.’ With the crisis, long-dormant sphere of politics has been set into motion. After four decades of neoliberal scepticism about the state, a long forgotten fact is coming to the light: that nation states still have enormous creative power, if only they are willing to use it.

The corona crisis amounts to an enormous field test. Millions of people are experimenting with new ways to organise their everyday lives.

Like a spotlight, the corona crisis is illuminating the geopolitical, economic, ideological and cultural fault lines of our time. Might this crack in the edifice even signal an epochal break? Does the age of turbo-globalisation end with the decoupling of the major economic blocs? Are the oil price wars heralding the end of fossil industrial economies? Is the global financial system changing into a new regime? Is the system guarantor’s baton going from the United States to China, or are we experiencing the breakthrough of the multipolar world?

What is certain is that the Coronavirus could lead to a breakthrough of a number of trends that have long been hidden. All of these developments are mutually influencing each other at breathtaking speed. This complexity suggests that this crisis will go deeper than the 2008 recession. The pandemic could be the burning fuse on the powder keg of a global system crisis.

Window to Future Wide Open

The corona crisis amounts to an enormous field test. Millions of people are experimenting with new ways to organise their everyday lives. Business travellers are switching from flights to video conferences. University teachers are holding webinars. Employees are working from home. Some will return to their old patterns after the crisis. But many now know from personal experience that the new way of operating not only works, but is also more environmentally and family-friendly. We have to use this moment of disruption, the immediate experience of deceleration, to generate long-term behavioural changes in the fight against climate change.

British journalist Jeremy Warner cynically sums up the neoliberal view of the crisis: “From an entirely disinterested economic perspective, the COVID-19 might even prove mildly beneficial in the long term by disproportionately culling elderly dependents [sic!].” In stark contrast to the lack of solidarity shown by its governments, people are experiencing a wave of solidarity in their neighbourhoods, at work, and within their circles of friends. When was the last time the capitalist machine was halted in order to protect the old and the sick? We can build on this experience of solidarity to make society as a whole more cohesive again. If we manage to overcome the crisis together, we are creating a symbol at the dawn of a new era: a community that stays together can meet any challenge.

However, reacting to the crisis also poses dangers. Borders are being closed around the globe, visas are cancelled, and entry bans are imposed on foreigners. The record number of orders for industrial robots indicates that the production chains will be made more resilient to breakdowns through a decisive step towards greater automation. Both trends threaten to accelerate the spiral of job losses, fear of social exclusion, resentment of immigrants, and political revolts against the liberal establishment.

Liberal economist Philippe Legrain rightly warns: ‘The Coronavirus crisis is a political gift for nativist nationalists and protectionists. It has heightened perceptions that foreigners are a threat. It underscores that countries in crisis can’t always count on their neighbours and close allies for help.” We must not leave the right to interpret the crisis to right-wing populists. The answer to global challenges must not be isolation and national selfishness, but rather solidarity and international cooperation. As opposed to 2008, progressives cannot afford again to lose the battle over interpreting what is happening, and what needs to be done. Over the next weeks, the groundwork of the new world order will be laid. We must make sure we will shape the debates over how it will look like.

A Stronger Democratic State Can Emerge

Many, especially young people, are for the first time experiencing a national emergency. Within days, their freedoms are restricted to an unimaginable extent. Not only in China, but in the middle of Europe, technologies are being used on a large scale to monitor and regulate the behaviour of citizens. As the “fight against terrorism” taught us, many of the emergency regulations now enacted will remain in force after the crisis has ended. One does not need to sense a hidden agenda behind the normalization of the state of emergency, the way Giorgio Agamben and Naomi Klein do, which is to make individuals docile for disaster capitalism. However, we must prevent our fundamental rights from being permanently eroded.

Naomi Klein, a key critic of “disaster capitalism,”  on Oct. 6, 2011, Day 21 of Occupy Wall Street, when she led an open forum. (David Shankbone, CC BY 3.0, Wikimedia Commons)

Slavoj Žižek hits the nail on the head when he warns that people rightly consider state power to be responsible: ‘you have the power, now show what you can do! The challenge for Europe is to show that what China has done can be done in a more transparent and democratic way.’ The East Asian democracies of South Korea, Taiwan and Japan have so far impressively demonstrated how to do this without unduly restricting citizens’ freedoms. Their approach seems more compatible with Western democracies than the draconian Chinese way. Still, successful management of the crisis would also strengthen confidence in the democratic state. In a crisis, people tend to rally around competent, hard-working and protective governments.

The global crisis has raised awareness of how vulnerable hyperglobalisation has made us. In a globally networked world, pandemics can and do spread across borders at high speed.

After years of austerity programmes have cut health care systems back to a bare minimum, now every effort must be made to enable the system to cope with the many sick people. The closure of municipal clinics, the chronic undersupply of nursing staff and the pitiful state of technical equipment are now taking their toll. Seldom has the demand to reverse the privatisation of health care received greater public support. In the crisis, Spain has quickly nationalized all of its private clinics and health services. In France, the President openly questions the wisdom of neoliberal privatisation and vows to shift course. In Germany, too, the debate has begun as to whether it was really prudent to subject our social life to the dictates of the market. In future, it must no longer be the individual’s interest in profit, but the common good of all that will be the central focus of public services.

The reconstruction of public services requires investments in the order of billions. Chancellor Angela Merkel has affirmed that the constitutional debt brake does not apply in exceptional situations like these: “What the budget balance will look like in the end of the year is not the issue for us.” In the current situation, the German government is opening a historically unprecedented rescue umbrella for the economy, covering everyone from small self-employed and freelancers to large corporations. “We will do everything possible,” assured Federal Finance Minister Scholz. The framework for providing guarantees, in a total amount of half a trillion euros, is only the beginning, states Federal Minister of Economics Altmaier.

Thus, in the crisis we are all Keynesians again. Unlike after the 2008 recession, we must not return to austerity after the crisis. After decades of austerity policies, many services are exhausted: health and education, local government, transport infrastructure, the German armed forces, and the police. In order to counter widespread fears of losing control, to prepare the economy and society for the digital revolution and, last but not least, to combat climate change, investments of historic proportions are necessary.

Social Democracy Can Save Us from the Crisis

The global crisis has raised awareness of how vulnerable hyperglobalization has made us. In a globally networked world, pandemics can and do spread across borders at high speed. Global supply chains are all too easily cut. The financial markets are vulnerable. Right-wing populists want to close the borders and isolate themselves from the world – but that is the wrong answer to the global challenges of epidemics, wars, migration, trade and climate change. Rather, our goal should be to address the root causes of these crises. To do this, the global economy must be placed on a more resilient foundation.

Image from U.S. history textbook used in Catholic primary schools in 1915. Text appearing with image: “They wanted to have their own assemblies levy the tax.” (Internet Archive Book Images, Flickr)

In the wake of the Corona crisis, global supply chains are already reorganizing. Shorter supply chains, for example, with American production facilities in Mexico and European facilities in Eastern Europe, create more stability. Technologically, Europe must become sovereign again. To do this, we need to cooperate much more closely in research and development. The global financial system, which is held together by not more more than duct tape, urgently needs re-ordering. For over a decade, central banks have not been able to counter deflationary trends through monetary policies. In the crisis, governments with expansionary fiscal policies are jumping aside. Politically, this means a return to the the founding logic of parliamentarianism, the principle of “No taxation without representation.” In other words, the financial systems must be put back under democratic control.

Conflicts arise from excessive interdependence. These conflicts must be cushioned by international norms and multilateral cooperation. The World Health Organization’s competent crisis management demonstrates the effectiveness of multilateral cooperation in combating the pandemic. Unlike the 2008 financial crisis, however, this time there is no coordinated response from the twenty largest economies. The geopolitical rivalry of the great powers on the one hand and the right-wing populist call for isolation on the other hand stand in the way of greater international cooperation. The existing elements of multilateral governance need to be strengthened with concrete contributions. This can begin by providing more solid funding to the World Health Organization and continuing with a G20 meeting to coordinate economic crisis management. Here the Alliance of Multilateralists can prove its value added.

The crisis has made it drastically clear to the populace that the status quo cannot continue. The desire for a fundamental reorganisation of our economic activity and collective life has never been greater. At the same time, existential dangers must be fended off without disproportionately restricting democracy and freedoms. Which political power can negotiate the necessary social compromises to pull this off? The American political scientist Sheri Berman has posed an anxious question: “Can social democrats save the world (again)?” Let’s get it done.

Marc Saxer heads the Asia department of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES). Previously he worked in the FES regional office in India and Thailand and he coordinated the project Economy of Tomorrow in Asia.

Consortium News.

 



69 Comments on "COVID-19: How Corona Broke the System"

  1. FamousDrScanlon on Wed, 25th Mar 2020 9:37 pm 

    COVID-19: How Corona Exposed A Broke Ass System

  2. Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 6:55 am 

    Do you really want to be in an ICU?

    The treatment takes place under high air pressure and can’t be held out while being awake; people are therefor artificially put to sleep. The treatment takes weeks.

    https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6039703/intensivist-denk-na-of-je-opname-op-ic-met-coronavirus-wel-moet-willen.html

    “Do you really want to be in an ICU”

    The article doesn’t draw the explicit conclusion, but suggests between the lines that the alternative is to fight it out on your own strength, consciously, in a week or so, probably the worst week in your life.

  3. Davy on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 7:17 am 

    The energy skeptic is very hard on wind power. I tend to see wind as a useful tool to mitigation of net energy decline ahead. Unlike the cloggo, I see wind as not having that great of EROI when all the other attachments to its power are factored in. Yet, it is a great source of energy to replace declining fossil fuels in sweet spots. We need to build them while we can because it won’t be long and the money won’t be there IMO.

    “1688 Tons of material to build just 1 windmill”
    https://tinyurl.com/ufkmxzl energy skeptic

  4. Cloggie on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 7:44 am 

    “The energy skeptic is very hard on wind power.”

    The energy skeptic is a laymen buffoon. Here I trashed her “41 arguments against wind energy”:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2018/12/28/prejudices-from-amateurs-against-wind-energy/

    The energy skeptic is the best proof for the the thesis that America is rapidly becoming a third world country, where people no longer can be expected to all be able to read an write, let alone have a basic understanding of science and technology.

    Europe and China are on a much higher level and are simply building the 100% renewable energy future, where America remains stuck in its fossil fuel past, unable to understand that the fossil fuel era is over and certainly unable to build an alternative.

    /shrug

  5. Cloggie on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 8:02 am 

    “I see wind as not having that great of EROI when all the other attachments to its power are factored in.”

    That’s interesting, empire dave! Could you elaborate a little on how high, in your estimation, wind EROI really is and why it is “not so great”.

    I mean, you are a collapse expert, you know these kind of things.

    All ears.

  6. Davy on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 9:07 am 

    “The energy skeptic is the best proof for the the thesis that America is rapidly becoming a third world country, where people no longer can be expected to all be able to read an write, let alone have a basic understanding of science and technology.”

    Following the EU and China down, cloggo, so give me a report of what is like. LMFAO

    “Europe and China are on a much higher level and are simply building the 100% renewable energy future”

    Bullshit, cloggo, both China and EU are stalling and the US is close to both pre-virus. You are a loud mouth fraud like juanPee.

  7. Davy on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 9:12 am 

    That’s interesting, empire dave! Could you elaborate a little on how high, in your estimation, wind EROI really is and why it is “not so great”.

    Simple cloggo, add in transmission, storage, intermittent backup needs, and material/labor/capital cost, replacement cost. Labor is a big cost ignored by the cloggo. EROI is nothing like you cheerlead.

  8. Cloggie on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 10:08 am 

    “Simple cloggo, add in transmission, storage, intermittent backup needs, and material/labor/capital cost, replacement cost. Labor is a big cost ignored by the cloggo. EROI is nothing like you cheerlead.”

    Empire dave bluffing himself into the EROI business, of which he hasn’t a jota of understanding.

    I want EROI numbers, empire dave. You are being evasive again, as always, just to mask that you haven’t a clue.

    No worries, I have the answer here for you. You can be relieved and lean back, world safe again:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/09/05/eroi-of-offshore-wind-power-continued/

    The EROI of offshore wind is perfect.
    Case closed.

  9. JuanP on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 11:19 am 

    “Simple cloggo, add in transmission, storage, intermittent backup needs, and material/labor/capital cost, replacement cost. Labor is a big cost ignored by the cloggo. EROI is nothing like you cheerlead.”

    So true Davy so True

  10. Anonymouse on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 11:22 am 

    “The maximum ice extension may not be that bad, but how about thickness and total volume? Most of that ice is very thin ice that could melt very fast if recent record hot global temperatures continue. Maximum winter ice extent is one of the least important numbers regarding this issue. It’s the Summer ice that is most important. I guess we will see what the minimum Arctic sea ice extension looks like in a few months. I expect Arctic sea ice to melt almost completely any year now, and the albedo from that will seriously melt the little multi year thick ice remaining.”

    Duh, what a stupid fuck. We know this now for years so you just repeat the obvious. At least juanPee is posting this obvious stuff over on the moderated side where everyone is ignoring him.

  11. I AM THE MOB on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 11:33 am 

    US Brings Drug Trafficking Charges Against Maduro, Labels Venezuela A “State Sponsor Of Terror”

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/politics/venezuela-trump-administration-terrorism/index.html

    Its always come back to oil

    Keep your eye on the prize cloggy. Watch and learn.

    Never let em go to waste!

  12. JuanP on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 11:45 am 

    Delusional Davy “At least juanPee is posting this obvious stuff over on the moderated side where everyone is ignoring him.”
    I really love the fact that I can actually win one argument after another on the moderated forums, and all the fools have to swallow it because they are not allowed to do what you do here. ROFLMFAO! That is why you don’t go there, you couldn’t win a single argument.

  13. Duncan Idaho on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 11:46 am 

    “COVID-19 has done in a deadly way what steady-state economists would prescribe in a healthy way: putting the brakes on a runaway economy. In fact, the pandemic has slammed on the brakes and jammed the GDP gearstick into reverse.”

  14. JuanP on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 11:49 am 

    Long live COVID-19!
    I hope everyone in the world catches this disease. Let the chips fall where they may.

  15. Davy on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 11:50 am 

    I can’t win a single argument here eather juanPee.

  16. JuanP on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 12:09 pm 

    We all know that, Davy, but it is good that you can admit it! You surprised me; you are more humble than I thought.

  17. JuanP on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 12:15 pm 

    Delusional junPee

    “At least juanPee is posting this obvious stuff over on the moderated side where everyone is ignoring him.”

    I really love the fact that I can actually win one argument after another in my mind on the moderated forums. Nobody want to deal with me because I am a lunatic, and all the fools have to swallow it because they are mindless and I hate them. ROFLMFAO! That is why I go there, I can’t win a single argument.

  18. JuanP on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 12:16 pm 

    I can’t win a single argument here eather juanPee that is why I go to the moderated side where I am ignored.

  19. Anonymouse on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 12:16 pm 

    We all know that, juanPee, but it is good that you can admit it! You surprised me; you are more humble than I thought.

  20. JuanP on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 12:19 pm 

    Your multiple personalities are getting confused, Davy! ROFLMFAO!

  21. JuanPee on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 1:29 pm 

    Your multiple personalities are getting confused, juanPee.

    ROFLMFAO!

    Pink poodle 2020!

  22. Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 2:22 pm 

    US Brings Drug Trafficking Charges Against Maduro, Labels Venezuela A “State Sponsor Of Terror”

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/politics/venezuela-trump-administration-terrorism/index.html

    Haha, admission of defeat. So who will bring Maduro “to justice” and cash in 15 million?

    Putin?
    Xi?

    ROFL

  23. Davy on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 6:47 pm 

    Were number one now! Were number one!

    USA! USA! USA!

    GO TRUMP!

    America is ciavirus capital of the world!

    WOOO WOOO!
    WOOO WOOO!

    we all gonna die…

  24. cloggie on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 7:08 pm 

    America should abructly and permanently abandon solidarity because it’s the language of muzzies and muzzies lovers and commie.

    with the advent of the interweb we’re being conned becuase social media sites herd us there to make money, to feed at the trough if you will.

    solidary has done us too much damages and stifle deliberations and speech for defending liberty and whitey supertard president paul repbulic and the constituion.

    it makes us susceptible to teh tyranny of medical industrial complex supertards.
    don’t think this is the work of some machievilant agent but a bunch ofwhitey supertard in power attempting to intervene to help.

    problem is this sort of concerned troll is destructive and stifle constructive criticsm

    the lack of deliberation unfortunately means the planes don’t fly and won’t in the future, and airbus will win

    please respect supertard
    please love grater supremacist muzzies more

  25. JuanP on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 7:17 pm 

    Pink poodle here. I am fucking crazy

    I am number one now! I am number one!
    USA! USA! USA!
    GO TRUMP!
    Miami is ciaviruscapital of the world!
    WOOO WOOO!
    WOOO WOOO!
    we all gonna die…

  26. Duncan Idaho on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 7:38 pm 

    ‘keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner’

    The Fat Boy speaks—

  27. Duncan Idaho on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 7:41 pm 

    “We Are Watching What Happens When a Failed Businessman Who Wanted to Be a Mobster Tries to Run a Country”

    Yep, it’s the Fat Boys wishes.

  28. JuanP on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 7:46 pm 

    Duncan, the libs are not saying much about open borders these days. What’s up with that. Funny how the worst virus infections are in blue areas.

  29. FamousDrScanlon on Thu, 26th Mar 2020 7:57 pm 

    Broke the System?

    A house of cards system built on top of a fault line.

  30. Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 27th Mar 2020 4:24 am 

    Suspicion is rising in Italy that the corona “Wuhan-virus” could have been around much longer, like since Q4-2019, when the number of pneumonias had already risen significantly:

    https://www.focus.de/gesundheit/news/signifikante-zunahme-der-krankheitsfaelle-coronavirus-schon-2019-in-europa-ausgebrochen-wissenschaftler-hat-eine-neue-theorie_id_11819332.html

    Also there are signs that the real death toll in Italy is much higher than the official numbers, think a factor of 3-6 more deaths.

  31. Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 27th Mar 2020 4:39 am 

    US military will no longer publish data about corona in its own ranks, not to give information to the enemy.

    https://www.focus.de/gesundheit/news/coronavirus-news-nrw-droht-kollaps-vereinzelte-angriffe-auf-deutsche-im-ausland_id_11576018.html

    Germany may enjoy a low death, so far, in the state of Nordrhein-Westfalen things are slightly different and the authorities speak of a possible temporary collapse of system-critical infrastructure.

    https://www.focus.de/gesundheit/news/die-welt-koennte-zusammenwachsen-vier-szenarien-denkbar-forscher-beschreiben-wie-der-virus-die-welt-veraendern-kann_id_11812019.html

    German researchers came up with likely post-corona scenario’s. Common denominator: less globalization, less global trade, renationalization, more localisation.

    Ready for a multi-polar world?

  32. Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 27th Mar 2020 5:18 am 

    Famine in the UK?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8157809/Britains-fruit-veg-fields-filled-produce-need-dig-victory.html

    “Who will dig for victory today? Britain’s fruit and veg fields are filled with the produce we’ll need, but there is just one problem – there are FAR too few people to pick it this year… and farmers are in despair”

    Recently the BoJo government called for 250k NHS volunteers and no less than 400k applied, an encouraging sign for the cohesion of the British society. It looks though as if a lot of those people will be more useful in the fields of Britain than in the hospitals.

    Because 98% of the manual harvesting in Britain was done so far by Eastern Europeans, ca. 90,000. But since Brexit, corona and improving economic conditions in Eastern Europe (thanks to the EU), they ain’t coming anymore, so who is going to bring in the harvest.

    That’s where our resident Brexiteer joe esquire comes in. Although joe prefers to stare at financial news all day, now the time has come for him to prove his real worth for England and pick a cherry or two, or strawberries:

    Let me take you down
    ‘Cause I’m going to Strawberry Fields
    Nothing is real
    And nothing to get hung about
    Strawberry Fields forever

    Joe can expect 10 GBP per hour (if he is really good) and can expect on site housing, together with other laborers. Perhaps they can even sing socialist songs at night.

    No worries though, in a couple of years, joe esquire will be phased out by a robot…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elyTlluCwoU

    …so he can return to his monitor to study the state of the world’s financial system again, or what’s left of it.

  33. Davy on Fri, 27th Mar 2020 5:23 am 

    “German researchers came up with likely post-corona scenario’s. Common denominator: less globalization, less global trade, renationalization, more localisation. Ready for a multi-polar world?”

    REAL Green was talking about theses changes years ago but people dismissed the talk as radical green.

  34. Davy on Fri, 27th Mar 2020 5:25 am 

    “Famine in the UK?”

    Actually the UK has some of the strongest permaculture and localism forces I have seen. The problem with the UK is overpopulation. Many of the people want a change it just will be tougher with so many people.

  35. Davy on Fri, 27th Mar 2020 5:37 am 

    “Prof Who Predicted 500K UK Deaths Now Says Under 20K Will Die, Peak In Two Weeks”
    https://tinyurl.com/qslyaw8 zero hedge

    “Imperial College London’s Neil Ferguson – who originally estimated 500,000 deaths in the UK due to Coronavirus, now says that the virus will peak in just two or three weeks, and that UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, according to NewScientist…New data from the rest of Europe suggests that the outbreak is running faster than expected, said Ferguson. As a result, epidemiologists have revised their estimate of the reproduction number (R0) of the virus. This measure of how many other people a carrier usually infects is now believed to be just over three, he said, up from 2.5. “That adds more evidence to support the more intensive social distancing measures,” he said. -NewScientist 3/ Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased – which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize – which in turn implies it is less dangerous…Meanwhile, a report from Oxford University suggests that the UK may have already achieved herd immunity because more than 50% of the population has likely had the virus and recovered. This has caused the British government to downgrade Coronavirus from being an acute, deadly, infectious disease, as noted by Armstrong Economics.”

  36. Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 27th Mar 2020 6:26 am 

    British prime-minister Boris Johnson has corona:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8159701/Boris-Johnson-tests-positive-coronavirus-crisis-grips-UK.html

    Jeez…

    I wish for his speedy recovery.

  37. REAL Green on Fri, 27th Mar 2020 6:47 am 

    Wide ranging changes are sure to be ahead but not completely like a social democrats thinks. It will be a compromise of globalism and nationalism also populism and socialism. One thing is certain about the future and that is the world will be much less affluent. This is because no economic engine generates economic activity like full blown globalism. Globalism will be adapted to shorter value chains and less activity. There will be a reduction in growth both proactively in an attempt for more resilience and passively systematically by physics of a system doing less. Resilience is expensive because sustainable activity means less hyper productivity and more activity that has backup and locally grounded. Hyper efficiency that is focused on more with less will be adapted towards less means more of less activity but more stocks of things. Behavior will be adapted by fear and reality. No longer will the traditional social narratives stand after they have been means tested by the pandemic. The best practices and knowledge will be easier to pinpoint because a new wisdom will have emerged to show just how fragile the system of the past was.

    That said competing interest will have to negotiate their way through this. The give and take of cooperation on multiple levels will occur settling on those that show the most strength with a basis in science but also political will. This of course must be weighed in on by the turbulence of decline with economic abandonment, dysfunctional systems, and irrational policy. That will actually be raw and exposed leading to crisis efforts that will naturally be good and bad. The rich will take the biggest hit because globalism was about a huge amount of economic activity but much of that was malinvestment and bubbles. With the advent of a poorer world bubbles have been popped and malinvestment will be less affordable. Digital wealth will evaporate in both deflation of less things made but also inflation of fiat wealth that will be a stealth haircut. The poor will get poorer but with the possibility of a different life more tuned into a localism of economic activity. Localism will increase by default.

    These changes will not be easy and the results will be less things and more hard work. Yet, there can be more spiritual benefits of meaning that comes with better human scale. This all could be shattered by war and conflict which often happen in these historically defining moments. I don’t think war will happen because the whole world has been wounded. I see a consensus within nations for retraction that will force the deep states in all nations to lose influence. Military activity is hugely expensive and will not be sustainable but don’t expect that to change immediately. There will be a time of a very dangerous vacuum. Poorer equals less so this will be an accelerated decline process that could cascade out of control or better it might be a pathway to a more stable level of world governess and economic activity. This could mean a smaller more sustainable world but still too much for the reality of planetary health. Further declines will be ahead but maybe not for some years.

    The 100% renewable world of eco-socialism will evaporate but not before an effort to utilize the best of it. Small scale renewables are an excellent enhancer of localism. Protection for locals will likely result from efforts to end the delocalization of globalism. Yet, populism will be a strong force to limit the extremes of migration found in globalism. Border will become harder. Traditional values will return that were once practiced like old fashion male female relationships with home economics and community activity of local people with shared boundaries. Less travel and movement by a poorer world means more respect for geographic uniqueness. These are just some possibilities but one thing is for certain the world has been upended and some kind of change is ahead good and bad. This is just the type of thing a green prepper will embrace.
    Realgreenadaptation.blog

  38. Davy on Fri, 27th Mar 2020 6:48 am 

    “COVID-19: How A Coronavirus Broke The System”
    https://tinyurl.com/wtt8m9t consortium

    “Overnight, the Age of Neoliberalism Coming to an End Suddenly everything is happening very quickly. Within hours, such large sums are being pumped into the markets that make the “radical” promises of Democratic presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders seem like pocket money in comparison. German politicians, who yesterday had gotten heated up by the intellectual musings of young socialist Kevin Kühnert, are now seriously considering the nationalization of corporations. What was dismissed in the climate debate as the naive dreams of children is now a sad reality: global air traffic is coming to a standstill. Borders that were considered unclosable in the refugee crisis are now indeed closed. And along the way, conservative governor of Bavaria, Markus Söder has abandoned the German fetish of balanced budgets, announcing, “We will not be guided by accounting issues, but by what Germany needs.” The age of neoliberalism, in terms of the primacy of market interests over all other social interests, is coming to an end. Of course, all of these measures are due to the state of emergency. However, citizens will remember them when they soon again are told ‘There is no alternative.’ With the crisis, long-dormant sphere of politics has been set into motion. After four decades of neoliberal scepticism about the state, a long forgotten fact is coming to the light: that nation states still have enormous creative power, if only they are willing to use it. The corona crisis amounts to an enormous field test. Millions of people are experimenting with new ways to organise their everyday lives. Like a spotlight, the corona crisis is illuminating the geopolitical, economic, ideological and cultural fault lines of our time. Might this crack in the edifice even signal an epochal break? Does the age of turbo-globalisation end with the decoupling of the major economic blocs? Are the oil price wars heralding the end of fossil industrial economies? Is the global financial system changing into a new regime? Is the system guarantor’s baton going from the United States to China, or are we experiencing the breakthrough of the multipolar world? What is certain is that the Coronavirus could lead to a breakthrough of a number of trends that have long been hidden. All of these developments are mutually influencing each other at breathtaking speed. This complexity suggests that this crisis will go deeper than the 2008 recession. The pandemic could be the burning fuse on the powder keg of a global system crisis.”

  39. Davy on Fri, 27th Mar 2020 6:49 am 

    “COVID-19: How A Coronavirus Broke The System”
    https://tinyurl.com/wtt8m9t consortium

    “Window to Future Wide Open The corona crisis amounts to an enormous field test. Millions of people are experimenting with new ways to organise their everyday lives. Business travellers are switching from flights to video conferences. University teachers are holding webinars. Employees are working from home. Some will return to their old patterns after the crisis. But many now know from personal experience that the new way of operating not only works, but is also more environmentally and family-friendly. We have to use this moment of disruption, the immediate experience of deceleration, to generate long-term behavioural changes in the fight against climate change. British journalist Jeremy Warner cynically sums up the neoliberal view of the crisis: “From an entirely disinterested economic perspective, the COVID-19 might even prove mildly beneficial in the long term by disproportionately culling elderly dependents [sic!].”

  40. Davy on Fri, 27th Mar 2020 6:50 am 

    “COVID-19: How A Coronavirus Broke The System”
    https://tinyurl.com/wtt8m9t consortium

    “However, reacting to the crisis also poses dangers. Borders are being closed around the globe, visas are cancelled, and entry bans are imposed on foreigners. The record number of orders for industrial robots indicates that the production chains will be made more resilient to breakdowns through a decisive step towards greater automation. Both trends threaten to accelerate the spiral of job losses, fear of social exclusion, resentment of immigrants, and political revolts against the liberal establishment. Liberal economist Philippe Legrain rightly warns: ‘The Coronavirus crisis is a political gift for nativist nationalists and protectionists. It has heightened perceptions that foreigners are a threat. It underscores that countries in crisis can’t always count on their neighbours and close allies for help.” We must not leave the right to interpret the crisis to right-wing populists. The answer to global challenges must not be isolation and national selfishness, but rather solidarity and international cooperation. As opposed to 2008, progressives cannot afford again to lose the battle over interpreting what is happening, and what needs to be done. Over the next weeks, the groundwork of the new world order will be laid. We must make sure we will shape the debates over how it will look like.”

  41. Davy on Fri, 27th Mar 2020 6:51 am 

    “COVID-19: How A Coronavirus Broke The System”
    https://tinyurl.com/wtt8m9t consortium

    In order to counter widespread fears of losing control, to prepare the economy and society for the digital revolution and, last but not least, to combat climate change, investments of historic proportions are necessary. Social Democracy Can Save Us from the Crisis The global crisis has raised awareness of how vulnerable hyperglobalization has made us. In a globally networked world, pandemics can and do spread across borders at high speed. Global supply chains are all too easily cut. The financial markets are vulnerable. Right-wing populists want to close the borders and isolate themselves from the world – but that is the wrong answer to the global challenges of epidemics, wars, migration, trade and climate change. Rather, our goal should be to address the root causes of these crises. To do this, the global economy must be placed on a more resilient foundation…In the wake of the Corona crisis, global supply chains are already reorganizing. Shorter supply chains, for example, with American production facilities in Mexico and European facilities in Eastern Europe, create more stability. Technologically, Europe must become sovereign again. To do this, we need to cooperate much more closely in research and development. The global financial system, which is held together by not more more than duct tape, urgently needs re-ordering. For over a decade, central banks have not been able to counter deflationary trends through monetary policies. In the crisis, governments with expansionary fiscal policies are jumping aside. Politically, this means a return to the the founding logic of parliamentarianism, the principle of “No taxation without representation.” In other words, the financial systems must be put back under democratic control…The crisis has made it drastically clear to the populace that the status quo cannot continue. The desire for a fundamental reorganisation of our economic activity and collective life has never been greater. At the same time, existential dangers must be fended off without disproportionately restricting democracy and freedoms. Which political power can negotiate the necessary social compromises to pull this off? The American political scientist Sheri Berman has posed an anxious question: “Can social democrats save the world (again)?” Let’s get it done.”

  42. Davy on Fri, 27th Mar 2020 7:02 am 

    “covid-19-logarithmic-growth”
    https://tinyurl.com/tfbl8vb oil price commentary

    “The German and Dutch numbers now updated rose to 0.6% mortality. But they test by contact chain rather than triage testing to symptomatic patients only. Which is what most have been doing so far because there have been too few test kits available to test more broadly. They only tested one whole village. Antibody tests are showing up now and a home test kit similar to an HIV antibody test would allow mass testing to determine exposure and from that we can determine mortality rates. When the German research showing the virus was transmitted by surface contact where it could remain for 14 days if not cleaned or heated I figured that all dense cities in the world are screwed. And that the Chinese test numbers don’t come close to reflecting the reality of the spread of the disease in China. Just as their death numbers don’t reflect actual deaths by the virus because people who died at home (20k/week more than the year before according to crematorium activity rates in Wuhan at the crest of the epidemic, ~60k total likely unrecorded CV19 deaths in Wuhan, 160k by suddenly abandoned cell phone accounts over last year for China as a whole). Considering the severe quarantine measures in apartment buildings and neighborhoods where cases were found, Amounting to 780 million in quarantine at the peak of it, That meant that the disease was far more prevalent than the case numbers suggest. The high transmissibility of the virus would lead me to suspect that the population had all been infected but for those who work from home or retired or ill. So about 80% in Wuhan, about 9 million people. So an estimated 63k dead of 9 million or about 0.7% Worse than a bad flu season. But not hysterically bad, and in line with German and Dutch numbers. By my own attempt to gauge the transmission potential of a dense metro center, Essentially all the people that went on their daily lives would have been infected within a week. Only people who were not leaving their homes often llike retirees staycationers and the ill, or home based workers would not be exposed at a substantial rate. So in NYC it is likely 13-14 million of the 19 million population are infected – definitely all members of households with children or students. You can see the rates of positive vs negative tests in the various states. Big city states have a higher ratio of positive tests.”

  43. Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 27th Mar 2020 7:03 am 

    That was to be expected:

    “Government launches WWII Land Army-style Pick for Britain campaign asking students and laid-off hospitality workers to stop crops rotting in fields amid shortage of seasonal migrant workers”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8159051/Government-launch-Land-Army-Pick-harvest-Britains-rotting-crops.html

  44. Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 27th Mar 2020 7:23 am 

    KLM to prematurely phase out their oldest Boeing-747 that was in service for almost half a century and mechanically could have completed a full century. Those folks knew how to build solid planes in those days!

    https://www.nu.nl/economie/6040460/iconische-boeing-747-van-klm-landt-zondag-voor-het-laatst-op-schiphol.html

    Reason phasing out: corona and relatively poor fuel efficiency.

  45. Davy on Fri, 27th Mar 2020 7:39 am 

    “Stunning Visualization Reveals Where Spring Break Covidiots Traveled After Flooding Florida Beaches”
    https://tinyurl.com/wnkgwv4 zero hedge

    “In case you were wondering how far these spring break ‘covidiots’ traveled for their ill-advised debauchery data visualization company Tectonix used cell phone location data collected by company X-Mode to map out the travels of thousands of spring breakers, using special geo-spatial big-data analysis software. The data – provided by cell phone companies in near real-time, was anonymized. Watch: This shows the location data of phones that were on a Florida beach during Spring Break. It then shows where those phones traveled. First thing you should note is the importance of social distancing. The second is how much data your phone gives off.”

  46. Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 27th Mar 2020 7:47 am 

    “UK-EU talks on post-Brexit relations ‘in deep freeze'”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/covid-19-puts-post-brexit-relationship-talks-in-deep-freeze

    “EU sources also said the UK’s positions in the texts were in a “different galaxy” to those of Brussels.”

    You know in advance it is not going to work. EU interests are best served with NO DEAL whatsoever, as a basis. Later we can perhaps agree on smaller points that are in mutual interest.

    The only point of interest is to ensure for the history books that the UK gets the blame. Time works in favor of the EU because as long as the relationship is not cleared, the UK still has to pay contribution, which London would love to stop as early as possible.

    “We are sorry to see you go! We love you! We never asked you to leave!”

    …and “slam” says the door… and history is back again, in spades. Nice opportunity to kick-start the EU military function.

  47. Davy on Fri, 27th Mar 2020 8:05 am 

    “EU sources also said the UK’s positions in the texts were in a “different galaxy” to those of Brussels.”

    Brussels is in a different galaxy from what is ahead for the EU and that is balkanization.

  48. Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 27th Mar 2020 8:42 am 

    Air over the Netherlands MUCH cleaner since corona outbreak:

    https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6040748/knmi-lucht-boven-nederland-stuk-schoner-door-coronamaatregelen.html

    CO2/NOx 20%/60% less.

    China & Italy same story.

  49. Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 27th Mar 2020 8:46 am 

    “Brussels is in a different galaxy from what is ahead for the EU and that is balkanization.”

    That’s indeed what the Anglo adversaries of the white race will definitely aim for on behalf of their kosher masters.

    Our cards to counter that intention are Russia and China (and Iran). The latter two like Europe much better than Anglos. And then there is the white suicide in the US, thank God.

    Winning hand.

    In 2002 I was in a geopolitical and cultural depression.
    In 2020 I have never been more upbeat.

  50. Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 27th Mar 2020 8:48 am 

    Belgian cat has corona, got it from his owner, had trouble breathing:

    https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6040744/belgische-kat-raakt-besmet-met-coronavirus-alleenstaand-geval.html

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *