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Page added on September 29, 2014

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Australian Government tries to hide its own peak oil report

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I find myself somewhat surprised some local peak oil activists managed to get the odious Piers Akerman at the awful Daily Telegraph to print this story, but I guess stranger things have happened – TOD ANZ points to the story – Australian Government tries to hide its own peak oil report.

The Daily Telegraph has revealed how the Australian government has attempted to suppress its own report on peak oil. The response from the New Zealand government had been equally secretive and obfuscating.

The Report by the Australian Bureau of Infrastructure Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) is called “Transport Energy Futures; long-term oil supply trends and predictions” and can be downloaded as a pdf

The 470 page report concludes that world oil production will peak in approximately 2016 and then begin to decline for the rest of the century and beyond.

“Given the growth in deep and non-conventional oil balancing the shallow decline in conventional production, it is predicted that we have entered about 2006 onto a slightly upward slanting plateau in potential oil production that will last only to about 2016-eight years from now (2008).

After that, the modelling is forecasting what can be termed ‘the 2017 drop-off’. The outlook under a base case scenario is for a long decline in oil production to begin in 2017, which will stretch to the end of the century and beyond. Projected increases in deep water and non-conventional oil, which are ‘rate-constrained’ in ways that conventional oil is not, will not change this pattern.”

The report has never been published on an Australian Government website (unlike all other BITRE reports), but has now mysteriously appeared on a French website (leaked?) and from there has now gone mainstream.

12 Comments on "Australian Government tries to hide its own peak oil report"

  1. ohanian on Mon, 29th Sep 2014 4:37 am 

    Here is the URL

  2. shortonoil on Mon, 29th Sep 2014 8:17 am 

    We concur. On model predicted that conventional peaked in late 2005, just as the EIA data indicates. It also predicts that all liquid hydrocarbon production will peak in late 2016, at $117/barrel.

    Like the 2005 prediction, the 2016 one is based on the energy dynamics of the petroleum production process. It is the point where the two curves: the maximum affordable price of petroleum to the economy, and the production cost curves cross. The world has reached the limit to the amount of high cost production oil it can absorb. Development of high cost production petroleum will be curtailed after that point, and in conjunction with legacy field decline, total production will fall.

  3. toolpush on Mon, 29th Sep 2014 9:40 am 

    To be fair, I think it was Mat on TOD first mentioned this report several years ago. Of course that doesn’t change the conclusions, but in hindsight, the US LTO has not been included, so a few adjustments will be required to make it totally relevant to today’s situations.

    One other point this report was not released by the Labour Government in power at the time(2009), read leftwing. The report was commissioned during 2007. The govt changed in Jun 2007, so it is hard to determine whether it was a Liberal report, squashed by Labour, or a Labour report and they squashed their own report.

  4. Northwest Resident on Mon, 29th Sep 2014 9:57 am 

    Of course the Australian government would try to hide any information they may have regarding the true nature of peak oil. It is the same thing America and all the other national governments are doing around the world. Reason why, is once the truth gets out and commonly known/accepted, chaos will erupt. From a national government’s point of view, when would you rather deal with chaos? Now, or later, or perhaps not at all if you can wait it out long enough? I think we all know the answer to that.

  5. pat on Mon, 29th Sep 2014 10:02 am 

    the downhill rollarcoaster ride may begin even much earlier than 2016 around mid late 2015 as the world is fast approaching the limits of everything. the dynamics of the world functioning are changing very fast and for the worst..

  6. CrisisMaven on Mon, 29th Sep 2014 11:17 am 

    Those manicore links don’t work anymore, but has the document still, see: (PDF and other formats in the column to the left).

  7. Apneaman on Mon, 29th Sep 2014 11:48 am 

    “when would you rather deal with chaos? Now, or later..”

    This is no different than how many individuals react or don’t react to their problems and the problems will not go away (not at all).

    Unfortunately, there is no alternative plan for anyone in “The Five Eyes” countries. All the leaders and managers are graduates of various neo-liberal seminary schools. For them BAU is a matter of faith. They will prosecute economic growth with the fervor of a medieval inquisitor. It is what they believe is right in their hearts. It is how they were raised. It is what they trained for.

    John Key- New Zealand, degree in commerce, former employee of Merrill Lynch & The Fed.

    Tony Abbott- Australia, degrees in economics and law and studied professional Catholicism.

    Stephan Harper- Canada, degrees in economics, former employee Imperial Oil.

    David Cameron- Great Britain, Bachelor of arts Economics with Politics. Worked in politics.

    Barack Obama – US, Constitutional liar.

    All of these men are the high priests of neo-liberal economics, BAU, and the status quo. True believers and useful idiots. The damage they have done so far is nothing compared to what is coming. Like all high priests throughout history, they are the legitimizers of the elite. Any heretics that are considered a REAL threat will be eliminated.

  8. Northwest Resident on Mon, 29th Sep 2014 12:40 pm 

    Apnea — No argument with those points you just made. Knowing and believing info like that might make you lose a little sleep — it is a clinical condition called “Doomer Apnea”.


  9. Apneaman on Mon, 29th Sep 2014 4:59 pm 

    I think I may have been born with it or at least a strong leaning towards pessimism. Funny, I only really gave up about two years ago. Something about cynics and closet idealists so they say.

  10. Davy on Mon, 29th Sep 2014 5:10 pm 

    If you are a pessimist life can always shake out better then expected so in a round about way you are a optimist wanna-be. I find I am more satisfied with better than expected than less than expected. This situation is true in the markets. Disappointments can be crushing and pleasnt surprises rewarded. Humans are a strange species.

  11. tahoe1780 on Mon, 29th Sep 2014 5:26 pm 

    “Realists are optimists with life experience.” Unknown

  12. toolpush on Tue, 30th Sep 2014 6:12 am 

    This report was NOT buried by Tony Abbot, it was buried by Kevin Rudd in 2009. It was a report generated by his govt or the previous right wing Howard govt.

    But don’t let facts get in the way of a good story.

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