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Page added on August 25, 2016
5 Factors That Could Turn America Into Another Collapsed Empire
Nations are just as likely to unravel after periods of prosperity as afte periods of depression
Have you ever met an Ottoman? Or a Habsburg? Neither have I.
Like a chopped-up Magritte painting, all that is left of the Habsburgs is a homburg hat. Yet in the 1800s, the Ottoman and Habsburg Empires controlled a huge chunk of the modern world. One in 10 Americans can trace his or her heritage to Habsburg lands, which spanned most of middle Europe from Poland down to Dracula’s castle in Transylvania.
Many people have written about poor countries that have fallen apart. But rich nations fall apart, too. In fact, nations are just as likely to unravel after periods of prosperity as after periods of depression. The 2016 presidential campaign appears so bitter precisely because so many Americans worry that the “other” party’s candidate will annihilate the nation.
I have found five forces that undermine nations after they achieve economic success – and they are biting down on the U.S. today. We have little time to spare to renew the nation. Whichever candidate wins in November better come up with tough and effective solutions.
Falling birthrates
As countries grow rich, people have fewer babies. (The average American women now gives birth to just 1.89 children.) To keep up their lofty standard of living, citizens need new workers to serve them, whether as neurosurgeons in hospitals or as manicurists. This requires immigrants. But immigrants can splinter the dominant culture. So countries face either declining relative wealth or a fraying cultural fabric. Great empires of the past, from the Roman to the Venetian to the British, have faced this challenge — and failed to surmount it.
Globalized trade
Nations cannot grow and stay rich without trading. Countries that fold themselves into a self-contained bubble grow fetid, like a badly aerated terrarium. Or a dank prison, which pretty much describes North Korea. South Koreans, who believe in trade, are 17 times richer, live 10 years longer, and stand several inches taller than their neighbors. South Korea produces super-sharp Samsung flat screens, fine Hyundai cars and charismatic K-pop singers.
But there’s a downside to trade. It shakes the customs and character of the nation. Donald Trump has skillfully tapped into this anxiety and is right to ask whether trade deals like the Trans-Pacific Partnership are vigorously negotiated to boost the incomes of typical Americans, or simply to boost the ego of the president.
Rising debt loads
As countries grow richer, they build bigger bureaucracies and inflate their debts. Here’s a puzzle I call “The Paradox of Theft:” As a family grows wealthier, it is less likely to fall into deep debt, default and bankruptcy. But the opposite is true of individual countries — wealthier nations may pile up proportionately more debt than poorer nations.
Amid the Great Recession of 2010, developing countries like Mexico and Russia had smaller debt burdens than Japan, the U.S. and the eurozone. Why do we borrow more? Because we can! And because today’s politicians aren’t held responsible for the debts they leave for our children and grandchildren.
Eroding work ethic
When a rich nation shatters, people don’t go hungry. They just stop waking up early. The proportion of adults who want to work has been sliding over the last 17 years. In West Virginia, only half of working-age adults have a job. Between 2000 and 2013, disability claims across the country surged 43%. Even though jobs have grown less dangerous, the chances of a judge approving a disability claim has jumped 50% since 1980.
We are seeing a structural shift: Millions have decided they just don’t care much for the idea of showing up for work in the morning and staying on the job until the end of the day.
To prod the unemployed back to work, I propose they receive a signing bonus if they accept a new job before their unemployment compensation payments run out.
The challenge of patriotism in a multicultural country
Unless rich nations discover and embrace their national characters, they won’t survive. In many schools, the Pledge of Allegiance and “My Country ’Tis of Thee” have been pushed aside in favor of self-esteem chants. Characters like Columbus, the Pilgrims and George Washington have been disdained as pillagers, rather than as symbols of exploration, religious freedom and courage.
To help ensure that all learn America’s story and values, all immigrants and any U.S. student applying for a federal loan be required to get their passports stamped at no fewer than five historical monuments or museums around the country.
Is it too late?
Should the U.S. and European nations simply hold a “going out of business sale” while the wealthiest individuals sneak off to private islands or to New Zealand? The odds are against us, as the Spartans, Romans, Ottomans, and Habsburgs would attest — if they were still around.
But as Bill Murray said in Stripes: “We’re not Watusi. We’re not Spartans. We’re Americans, with a capital ‘A”…that means that our forefathers were kicked out of every decent country in the world. We are the wretched refuse. We’re the underdog. We’re the mutts.”
And we can win again.
19 Comments on "5 Factors That Could Turn America Into Another Collapsed Empire"
Hello on Thu, 25th Aug 2016 7:58 am
I hope to see the wretched EU dissolve.
onlooker on Thu, 25th Aug 2016 8:20 am
Only one reason cited is a salient one. Debt overload. Basically, the US empire overextended itself with over spending and debt overload. In the background Overshoot and limits to growth and its symptoms FF depletion, AGW and environmental degradation though is what will truly bring down empires and countries alike
Cloggie on Thu, 25th Aug 2016 8:24 am
The most important reason why countries fall apart is not mentioned: shifting demographics (Yugoslavia), c.q. dictators whose power base is a minority ethnicity/religeous group (Iraq, Syria).
If you look at the US you see that between 0-5, Europeans are already a minority. This is going to have enormous repercussions. The old US up until the crash of 2008 was based on: “this is a white country and minorities making trouble can be bought off with handouts and affirmative action”.
Then came the Lehmann crash, aka “subprime crisis”. It is a pretty well guarded secret until today that most of these Fanny May loans were handed out to so-called minorities, from whom you could know in advance they would never be able/willing to service all that mortgage and car loan debt. But it was politicis that exerted pressure on banks to hand these loans out anyway.
Fortunately for these bankers there was a way out: Eurofools with an unlimited faith in the strength of the American economy and hence European pension funds bought these worthless debt by the bucket load.
After the crash, duped European institutions were somewhat compensated with fresh printed trilliions of dollars.
Back to the original point… after Lehman came Obama care, yet another wealth transfer from the white achievers to the underclasses, white or colored.
To make a long story short, just like with a lifeboat situation, paddles can be used to draw more drowning people on board, but if the boat becomes too full, the paddles will be used to hit the hands of those trying to climb on board as well.
https://youtu.be/Zy2Kjnu_k_o
Look at the people behind Trump… there are all white, but still unwilling to stress their whiteness. Nobody in the audience, including Trump, has any intention yet to partition the US. But for the first time in a hundred years, European America is rising up, are rejecting globalism, rejecting the “establishment” (globalists hijacked Dems and Reps alike + sanhedrin lording above them), are openly rejecting political correctness and are demanding a wall, and no, not with Canada.
Making America Great agains doesn’t mean a global empire with Russia and China in a subservient position, it means an America that minds its own business, with shining cities, roads and bridges in tip-top state, even trade balance, low debt, full employment, smaller government, job security.
Is this going to happen? No.
When a real crisis arrives like an imploding global financial system or a war with Russia and/or China, white America in the heartland will seize the opportunity and leave the union.
ghung on Thu, 25th Aug 2016 9:29 am
“We are seeing a structural shift: Millions have decided they just don’t care much for the idea of showing up for work in the morning and staying on the job until the end of the day.”
Doesn’t mention a demographic shift. And it isn’t that all of these folks don’t show up for work. Maybe they grew tired of standing in service to a failing paradigm that has a declining work/reward ratio. They don’t care if they are counted among the official worker bees in official statistics, or not. They’ve made other arrangements.
Having been in parts of the world in ‘decline’, I’ve seen robust “gray” economies/markets; trade, barter, “under-the-table” transactions. And why pay the increasing overhead, ripe with intermediaries, unnecessary regulations, and taxes on every exchange of goods and services, when one can simply do many of these things for one’s self? Again, when the overall economy stops serving a large portion of its participants in an equitable manner, folks tend to make other arrangements; become more local in their interests, and simplify their efforts to a manageable level.
I, personally, have been compelled to do many of these things. Remaining in service to an overly complex economy that sees me only as statistic to be exploited “for the greater good”, seemed like a helluva way to waste a life. Side benefits have been a lower tax liability (reduced subsidies to government actions I consider morally objectionable and to people I find quite insane), lower stress levels, greater resilience beyond the simple economic “wealth” factor, reduced consumption (always resented being dubbed “consumer”), and, I think, a clearer view of our overall collection of predicament. When something isn’t working, on a personal, and macro, level, it’s silly to not do something else. No point in trying to convince everyone else. They’ll either get it, or they won’t.
Sissyfuss on Thu, 25th Aug 2016 9:52 am
Falling birthrates is a rational response to someone living in a stressed deteriorating natural environment. But from a market perspective it makes no sense. Like the conquerors that followed Columbus, they could only laugh at the values of indigenous people who didn’t believe in land ownership or a nonspiritual relationship with their Mother Earth. Our reality is perceived through our character as well as our senses.
eugene on Thu, 25th Aug 2016 10:08 am
No mention of out of control military spending, a military conquest minded population, a rapidly deteriorating infrastructure, the worst educational system in the industrialized world, the worst/most expensive health care system in the industrialized world, a corrupt governmental system and the list is long. The work ethic disappeared some time ago. Most of all, after WWII we were the only intact industrial system in the world which we, quickly, came to believe we were the best, smartest and superior people anywhere. Called arrogance. Coming off our pedestal is a tough go and like spoiled children, we are pitching a fit while screaming it’s somebody else’s fault.
Go Speed Racer on Thu, 25th Aug 2016 10:25 am
Five Factors that could turn American into a Collapsed Empire
1. Donald Trump
2. Hillary Clinton
3. Barack Obama
4. Fat tattoo’d pigs, throwing garbage out their car windows
5. Smirking hate-filled selfish greedy republican entitled fraternity-boy right-wing pig, named Justice John “Walmart” Roberts
http://netrightdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/roberts.jpg
Yep, see ya later America. Rotted out like a termite filled main beam.
Anonymous on Thu, 25th Aug 2016 11:15 am
Another garbage article, but Eugene has it right. Imperial over-stretch, (resources directed to war and oppression), is a major factor in empires collapse. And the amerikan empire has been doubling down on war, wealth concentration and oppression in a serious way of late. Collapse is not a matter of ‘could’, but when.
Falling birth rates – Do not necessarily imply collapse.
Trade – Amerika ‘trades'(steals its resources actually) with the world, but is on track to collapse anyhow. Might want to look elsewhere.
Rising debt load – The only relevant point in the entire article. 1 outta 5 aint bad, I guess.
Eroding work Ethic – It is undeniably true amerikans are fat, lazy and not the worlds hardest workers in the world. But ‘Work Ethic’ and its relation to national wealth is difficult to quantify and measure. There is plenty of fake uS dollar ‘wealth’ and ‘production’ in the empire. Most of it is mal-distributed or pointless production. Which is far more important that individual workers attitudes. The idea the uS workers don’t get up ‘early’ enough or file too many comp. claims, is dubious at best.
Patriotism? – LoL. Has little to do with anything. The ‘patriotism’ of the amerikan empire is an entirely synthetic thing. Many amerikans still subscribe to its manufactured imagery and ‘ideals’, yet the empire continues to decline, but for reasons far more important than ‘patriotism’. Romans remained committed to the idea of Rome as superpower, the ultimate civilization, all through its decline, while they ignored the structural problems causing it. How’d that work out for them?
JuanP on Thu, 25th Aug 2016 12:49 pm
Have we reached Global Peak Trade? http://wolfstreet.com/2016/08/24/world-trade-falls-second-quarter-in-a-row/
HARM on Thu, 25th Aug 2016 1:47 pm
Yet another garbage right-wing populist screed laying blame on traditional right-wing bugaboos of so-called “white genocide” (falling birthrates only among whites, of course), creeping socialism and erosion of “traditional values”, so-called work ethic, personal responsibility, etc.
No mention at all of the mathematical impossibility of endless growth, the capture of government at all levels by the banking & finance cartel, oil & gas cartel, MID, and big Pharma. Superficial lip service ranting against rising “debt” (presumably government?) but nothing about ZIRP or the yawning and growing chasm in wealth and influence between the .1% and the rest of us.
joe on Thu, 25th Aug 2016 4:57 pm
Falling birth rates are a symtom of success, not failure, history is bery much in evidence. Roman citizens and Spartan citizens as well as most so called great civilisations practiced infanticide whereby children were thrown onto trash heaps to die if they were unwanted due to affordability or health. We live in the age of the mother, her will be done. The result is wealthy children grow up wealthy, successfful, selfish and copy their mothers and dont procreate.
Poverty drives socialism and high birth rates because a large family has a slightly better chance, strength in numbers.
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Thu, 25th Aug 2016 6:57 pm
The USA will collapse because it’s full of fucking retards. The loud old angry white guys are the most retarded of the bunch. If you want to see the most retarded folks in America just go to a Trump rally and/or obseve the regular commenters on this blog. The natural instinct of the angry old retarded white man is to blame immigrants and/or poor people. I can’t wait to see USA collapse hard and all the retards fight it out. My money is on the young and hard immigrants. Fat old lazy white dudes will be quick work. I hope they slowly cut you into one ounce pieces while you’re alive and feed you to the pigs.
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Thu, 25th Aug 2016 7:04 pm
White America is a bunch of fat lazy retards that couldn’t run a mile without having a heart attack and birth rates are down cuz girls don’t wanna fuck fat ugly white guys whose dick is underneath their pendulous belly flab. Even the kids white america is having are fat little fucking losers. If you’re curious to know which race in America is the most fit and athletic just look at the skin color of dudes in elite professional sports. After the collapse white america will be mostly fertilizer.
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Thu, 25th Aug 2016 7:08 pm
Garbage in, garbage out
https://youtu.be/23BJNveKMRI
Makati1 on Thu, 25th Aug 2016 8:16 pm
Truth, you are and expert on garbage, producing it that is. And who are the “old white guys” you like to put down? You? If you are lucky you too will be an “angry old retarded man” some day. LOL
Reality is a bitch and then you die. Even the young are to blame for the US situation. They have no idea what is coming because their nose is inches away from the latest propaganda, on their I-screen, that replaced their brain, while ear phones are pumping bullshit into their heads for most of their waking hours.
The middle aged are couch potatoes that cannot even get up to change the propaganda channel. “Ma! The remote quit! We need to warm up the SUV and go to Walmart for a new one! Git out the credit card with something still on it. Let’s buy a 72 inch one this time and stop at the Snak Shak for a barrel of chicken.”
<40% of US eligible voters will vote. Less than 20% will determine the Liar-in-Chief for the next four years. They do not deserve democracy and will soon not even have the faux one they live under now. Yep, us old guys are a bitch for pointing out the lies and bullshit in America. Buckle Up!
Survivalist on Thu, 25th Aug 2016 8:42 pm
Collapse will occur due to peak oil/decreasing ERIO and climate change. Increased Immigrants, decreased nationalism/patriotism and shoddy work ethic might be symptoms of collapse but they do not cause collapse.
To remark on Truths point about Trump rallies. I went to a trump rally once. I’m not a trump supporter but I was curious to see. It’s safe to say none of the people I saw there will be splitting the atom or wining a Pulitzer Prize. It was an odd assortment of misfits and fuck ups with not a prospect amongst them that I could detect. It was quite like a Tea Party rally from a few years ago. What struck me was the anger. An anger that will no doubt erupt before too long.
litesong on Fri, 26th Aug 2016 9:21 am
Complaining about lazy Americans is a sign that a rich boss can’t get enough work out of “worker bees”, while destroying retirement & support packages for “worker bees”. Complaining about falling birthrates is another sign the boss worries it won’t have enough “worker bees”. Overall, the article is ‘re-pubic-lick-un” diatribe supporting racist, sexist, xenophobe Trump, without condemning trade with dictators in communist china(always small letters). Quoting Bill Murray…. now there’s patriotism that will save the U.S.
Boat on Fri, 26th Aug 2016 9:49 am
Truth,
It’s people like you that need to be pulled from the streets and thoroughly analyzed. On the surface you seem an obvious threat to any society. After any particular violent crime you are a poster child for the description, “the signs were there, why didn’t anybody stop him”.
Cloggie on Fri, 26th Aug 2016 1:04 pm
Talking about collapse, regime change, etc…
Breaking, according to reliable sources, Turkish president Erdogan has been overthrown!
https://youtu.be/DbahxJuPPHw