Peak Oil is You

Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)

Page added on June 3, 2015

Bookmark and Share

World Oil Output Last 3 Years

World Oil Output Last 3 Years thumbnail

The EIA publishes every possible energy stat for the USA and hardly anything for the rest of the world. Well, anything current for the rest of the world anyway. Their International Energy Statistics is already five full months behind and working on six. December 2014 is the last international oil production data we have.

Anyway during this lull in other data I decided to look at the last three years of international data, from December 2011 to December 2014. All data is in thousand barrels per day.Post 1

World C+C production was flat for most of 2012 and 2013 but in late 2013 production took off and has increased by about 3 million barrels per day above the average for 2012 and 2013. December C+C production was 79,300,000 BPD.

Post 4

While total C+C production has increased by 3,000,000 BPD over the last three years the top ten gainers have increased just over twice as much, 6,200,000 BPD.

And just who were the big C+C production increasers for the last three years. Keep in mind this is the total change, or increase, over the last three years, not total production.

Post 2

The largest gainer, by a wide margin, was the USA. Iraq and Canada were runners up and the rest were also rans.

Almost everyone else had declines.

Post 3

Here are the 20 biggest decliners. Iran of course declined the most but surprisingly the second largest decliner was Mexico, not Libya. Saudi, the fourth largest decliner has, since December, increased production by about half a million barrels per day.

Post 5

World C+C production minus the top ten gainers has declined by 3,100,000 over the three years 2012 through 2014.

Post 6

Just for kicks I decided to include production change per geological area over the three years, 2012 through 2014. As you can see it is no contest, North America wins by a large margin. However if we had the last 5 months data this chart would look somewhat different as the Middle East has had a pretty good increase over that period.

And on another subject under the “Do You Believe This” category:

Post 7

This is the US weekly C+C production for the last 52 weeks with the last data point May 29th. And no, I flat don’t believe it. Here are a few reasons why.

Crude Oil Carload Update

The AAR also reported U.S. Class I railroads originated 113,089 carloads of crude oil in the first quarter of 2015, down 17,982 carloads or 13.7 percent from the fourth quarter of 2014.

First Quarter crude oil shipped by rail is down 13.7 percent from the first quarter of 2014.

Sikorsky to Cut 1,400 Jobs, Citing Falling Oil Production

Sikorsky Aircraft Corp. says it’s cutting 1,400 jobs in the coming year as the helicopter manufacturer faces declining demand for shuttling workers to offshore oil platforms.

A helicopter maker cuts employment by 9.2 percent due to falling offshore oil production. Of course this is all over the world but definitely includes the Gulf of Mexico.

And our neighbor to the north:

Canada’s crude oil production fell in May to lowest level in almost 2 years, Barclays says

Investment bank Barclays  says a “perfect storm” of events including wildfires and upgrader maintenance in Alberta are expected to have cut average national production to 3.98 million barrels of oil a day in May after peaking at an average of 4.59 million barrels a day in January.

In May Canadian crude production was 610,000 BPD below January production. But apparently even January production was not all that great.

Alberta oil production dropped by 8% between Q3 2014 and Q1 2015

Production of conventional oil and gas in Alberta — excluding oil sands projects – fell by 8% between the third quarter of 2014 and the first quarter of 2015, when oil prices crashed as a result of OPEC’s fight for global market share.

According to research firm CanOils, production fell by 56,880 barrels of oil equivalent a day during the period, primarily because of falling global commodity prices, though pipeline constraints and maintenance also played a role. 

Alberta conventional liquids fell by well over half a million barrels per day during the first quarter 2015 compared to the third quarter 2014. And this was before the wildfires.

One more point:

Post 8

Annual net imports of crude oil plus petroleum products had been on almost a linear decline until late 2014. Now imports have almost flattened out indicating a decline in US crude oil production.

peak oil barrel

10 Comments on "World Oil Output Last 3 Years"

  1. Plantagenet on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 4:40 pm 

    The graphs show how 3 million bbls of new US oil produced by fracking tight shale produced a global oil glut and a price collapse.

    Drill baby drill combined with frack baby frack turned out to work pretty darn good.

  2. Speculawyer on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 4:49 pm 

    The graph makes it look impressive but we are really talking about a 3% increase world-wide over a 2 year period. That is hardly the ‘flood’ of oil we’ve heard about.

    But very small prodcution changes in the oil market can cause big changes in price.

  3. GregT on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 4:51 pm 

    “Drill baby drill combined with frack baby frack turned out to work pretty darn good.”

    Again planter, not a freaking clue. You are ignoring the 10,000 lb elephant in the room.

    “The U.S. and world economies are slowing down So much for the great 2015 economic pickup.”

    In March, the OECD was projecting 4% global economic growth for 2015. On Wednesday, it slashed that to 3.1% — which would be less than the 3.3% growth the world saw last year.

    Outlook for America: The projection for 2016 has been cut from 3.0% in March to 2.8% in the OECD report.

    Outlook for the world: Much of the rest of the world looks equally shaky, if not worse.

  4. shortonoil on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 5:07 pm 

    The last run up of 2014 occurred “after” prices fell. It resulted from producers attempting to maximize revenue in the lower price environment. It was a very predictable occurrence, and can not be sustained. By February of 2015 production had already begun to fall. The increase from shale is coming as the result of wells drilled, but not completed. That should end by this fall.

    The Etp Model informs us that demand can never again be equal to production. Prices are in a long term downward trend, and production will maintain a substantial permanent inventory hang over. This should be clearly evident to the market by early 2016, and producers will then begin to shut in their highest cost production.

  5. Dredd on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 5:34 pm 

    Those graphs look like some other troubling graphs about acceleration (The Question Is: How Much Acceleration Is Involved In SLR – 6?).

    The need to inject poison is getting more and more popular.

  6. Plantagenet on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 7:01 pm 


    “only” 3 million new bbls of oil per day doesn’t sound like much, except if there were only, say, 2.9 million bbls of new demand.

    Do the math—thats an overhang of 1 million bbls every 10 days, or 3 million EXTRA bbls per month or ca. 20 million bbls in six months, i.e. the makings of a very real oil glut.


  7. dave thompson on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 8:17 pm 

    I did the math Plant and all signs point to a world “glut”of oil that is about 10 to 12 days worth of wiggle room over the past years “glut”. 3 mil(oversupply) x 365 is 1095 divide by 93 mil per day that is used world wide.

  8. GregT on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 8:57 pm 

    Demand for unaffordable oil is slowing planter, as is economic growth.

  9. Revi on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 9:13 am 

    I wouldn’t worry. All that oil will get used eventually. If it’s cheap everyone will buy some Ramcharger or gigantic truck or ATV or something and it will get all used up. That’s the way it works around here.

  10. shortonoil on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 10:13 am 

    “Demand for unaffordable oil is slowing planter, as is economic growth.”

    That is about the situation. The world is now producing at least 3 to 4 mb/d of liquid hydrocarbons that can only serve as feedstock material. They won’t process into fuels. Feedstock needs an economy that is strong enough to use it. That we don’t appear to have?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *