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What OPEC+ Must Do for Oil to go Above $70 in 2019

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OPEC+ countries must cut 2019 supply growth by 1.5 million barrels per day if they want oil prices back above $70 per barrel next year, according to Rystad Energy.

“We believe a cut announcement that effectively removes anything less than one million barrels per day of 2019 supply would be interpreted negatively by the market,” Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil market research at Rystad Energy, said in a statement posted on the company’s website on Thursday.

“To surprise the market in a bullish fashion, we believe cuts approaching two million barrels per day would have to be announced,” he added.

“Should OPEC+ announce a 1.5 million barrel per day cut, we believe the market reaction would be neutral at first, but gradually pave the way for a recovery in oil prices above the $70 level for Brent in 2019,” Tonhaugen continued.

If OPEC+ decides this week not to cut production substantially, the market can “probably wave goodbye to any hopes of short term recovery in prices from current levels, and more likely say hello to even lower levels for parts of next year,” according to Tonhaugen.

The 175th ordinary OPEC meeting is scheduled to take place in Vienna, Austria, today. The fifth OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting is scheduled to take place on Friday.

In an emailed statement sent to Rigzone on Wednesday, Michael Burns, an oil and gas partner at law firm Ashurst said, “the outcome of the meeting in Vienna would seem to be finely balanced”.

“Whilst cuts in production look likely, the extent of the cuts would appear to be a striking of a balance between the needs of OPEC members, agreements made with non-OPEC members outside of Vienna and political discussions ongoing with the United States,” he added.

Rystad Energy is an independent energy research and business intelligence company.


3 Comments on "What OPEC+ Must Do for Oil to go Above $70 in 2019"

  1. Pete Bauer on Thu, 6th Dec 2018 7:44 pm 

    OPEC became OPEC+ when Russia joined.
    OPEC will become OPEC++ when America also joins.

    Big oil will be happy to join if given a choice.

    While media only talks about SUVs taking the market share of cars, the plugin vehicles chipping at the market is concealed. In october, 208,000 plugins were sold worldwide and it keeps increasing. Lets see what happens to share of oil.

  2. Free Speech Message Board on Thu, 6th Dec 2018 7:55 pm 

    Americans want to think that they live in a peaceful, free country with a balanced budget, but that belief is not true.

    Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.

    You know that you live in a police state when everything is illegal and you have no rights.

    You have no free speech rights, religious rights, gun rights, there is civil forfeiture, the government wiretaps your phone, records your web history, reads your email, takes away your right to silence, can torture you, and can extrajudicuallly assassinate you.

    Your taxes fund illegal immigrants, debt, endless wars, curfews, checkpoints, no fly lists, private prisons, mandatory minimums, 3 strikes laws, DNA databases, CISPA, SOPA, NDAA, IMBRA, FBAR, FATCA laws, TSA groping, secret FISA courts, and Jade Helm.

    The elites are obviously going all the way to destroy the world. Just look at history and Mao, Hitler, and Stalin.

    When Americans remain quiet about rising debt, Obamacare, food stamps, regulations, endless US wars, increasing taxes, illegal immigrants, nanny state laws, security cameras, license plate readers, checkpoints, redlight cameras, speed cameras, FBI facial and voice recognition, curfews, gun bans, NSA wiretapping, the end to the right to silence, free speech bans, searches without warrants, private prisons, mandatory minimums, 3 strikes laws, DNA databases, CISPA, SOPA, NDAA, IMBRA, private prison quotas, no knock raids, take down notices, no fly lists, terror watch lists, Constitution free zones, stop and frisk, 3 strikes laws, kill switches, National Security Letters, kill lists, FBAR, FATCA, Operation Chokepoint, TSA groping, civil forfeiture, CIA torture, NDAA indefinite detention, secret FISA courts, FEMA camps, laws requiring passports for domestic travel, IRS laws denying passports for tax debts, gun and ammo stockpiles, laws outlawing protesting, police militarization, chain gangs, boot camps, and Jade Helm what kind of message does that send to the elites?

    Do you think the 1% is just going to turn around and restore freedom? Do you think our overlords are just going to stop increasing tyranny on their own?

    Unless Americans start speaking out, resisting, protesting, getting out into the streets with pitchforks and torches, tar and feathering the elites, cops, soldiers, politicians, government workers, and media puppets, breaking windows, setting fires, and killing people, Americans will end up in the concentration camps.

    There’s no hope. The US will be lucky to last another 30 years.

    The best we can do now is to warn people to study history and prepare.

    The USA is a bankrupt warmongering police state.

    The line has been crossed. The Bill of Rights will never be restored. Even if the government said that they have ended NSA wiretapping, CIA torture, NDAA indefinite detention, and secret FISA courts, who would believe them?

    The 1% appears intent on causing an economic collapse, a civil war, and WWIII.

    Those fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

    A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves.

  3. Chrome Mags on Fri, 7th Dec 2018 10:11 am 

    “What OPEC+ Must Do for Oil to go Above $70 in 2019”

    Control volume sold.

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