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US Oil Production 9% higher than peak in 1970 and will be about 20% higher next year


US oil production set a new record back in February, 2018 to surpass the previous oil production peak set in the 1970s.

EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in June. EIA projects that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.8 million b/d in 2018, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017, and will average 11.8 million b/d in 2019.

The US is also exporting some oil and natural gas.

The US is exporting 2.5 million barrels of crude oil, oil products and natural gas products in 2018. This is about 8000 barrels per day.


next big future

28 Comments on "US Oil Production 9% higher than peak in 1970 and will be about 20% higher next year"

  1. Plantagenet on Tue, 3rd Jul 2018 7:21 pm 

    The new peak oil is the same as the old peak oil, just at a higher peak. Cheers!

  2. Fred on Tue, 3rd Jul 2018 7:56 pm 

    Source: US EIA. Nuf said.

  3. MASTERMIND on Tue, 3rd Jul 2018 8:05 pm 

    EIA may have overestimated US production by one million barrels a day for 2018-2019.

  4. Newfie on Tue, 3rd Jul 2018 8:07 pm 

    US is exporting 8000 barrels per day. Uh… But it is importing 10,000,000 barrels per day. Duh-oh!

  5. twocats on Tue, 3rd Jul 2018 8:22 pm 

    EIA monthly numbers are reliable – but predictions? hahahahahah!!

  6. Boat on Tue, 3rd Jul 2018 8:29 pm 


    Your source must be from mm. His reports are peer reviewed and years old.

  7. Boat on Tue, 3rd Jul 2018 8:34 pm 


    US production will be over 11 mbpd in 2018. Drastic underestimate as they have been behind all year and can’t catch up. I think shortonoil works for them. Lol

  8. dave thompson on Tue, 3rd Jul 2018 8:36 pm 

    The idea that the stuff being produced today is comparable in volume numbers to what was produced in 1970 is ridiculous.

  9. twocats on Tue, 3rd Jul 2018 9:14 pm 

    12.5 mbpd average in 2019? are you in that soup-mix? you’d be good for at least a barrel.

  10. deadly on Tue, 3rd Jul 2018 9:18 pm 

    The positive side:

    Source rocks, as oil and gas producing reservoirs, are largely a North American activity today, but most of the world’s source rocks reside in other countries, which are undeveloped. Wise development of the world’s source-rock reservoirs will require the attention of the best and brightest of our grandchildren.

    Great source rocks make great source rock-reservoirs.

    Search and Discovery

    Still plenty of oil out there, you can sleep with no worries, just count your blessings.

    The day to begin to worry is the day after the day everybody finds out that oil has run short. Today is not that day.

    Until then, drive your pickup to gas up the fishing boat and spend 500 dollars on gas, beer, food, bait and tackle to catch fifteen pounds of fish, you fish. lol

  11. Boat on Tue, 3rd Jul 2018 9:34 pm 


    I am force to defend energy potential by only telling the truth gleaned from what I consider reputable sources. However we rarely discuss the chance to actually produce them over the next 100 years. Between mother nature,overpopulation and geopolitics the chances are slim. My doomer bit for the year. Lol

  12. tommywantshismommy on Tue, 3rd Jul 2018 10:44 pm 

    Doesn’t bother me. Just buys us some time. Enjoy it while you can. Hopefully other oil producers can up their game.

  13. Makati1 on Tue, 3rd Jul 2018 11:04 pm 

    Correct dave. Not to mention the energy content of today’s burnable liquids loosely called “petroleum” is way lower. The net energy level of a barrel does not even come close to that of 1950s petroleum.

  14. Makati1 on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 3:16 am 

    Perhaps this will clarify the situation:

    “The Petroleum Age”

    Take a good look at the pretty picture of the barrel of oil and the words beside it…

  15. Anonymous on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 3:58 am 

    If you look at the Hubbert 1956 paper, page 32 (figure 21), his “most likely” case had US producing about 1 MM bopd this year. His upside case has us producing 2 MM bopd this year. So we are doing 10 times his base case and 5 times his upside case. This is a classic peak oil failure. And very similar to the failures that happened before Hubbert. The problem is the initial resource estimates being too low. The industry finds more.

    In many cases, the finding is more from known areas. California Kern River has produced many times more than it was ever supposed to. In addition, offshore oil was known at the time of Hubbert and included in his projections (just underestimated). Regarding flashy US plays, initial verticals had been done by the time of Hubbert. The first ND well was in 1951 (the first ND Bakken well in 1953). The first Spraberry well was in 1943, with shows. The first successful Spraberry well was in 1949. It just took time, technology, and price, to drive utilization of the resource. Hubbert screwed up. Let that be a lesson peakers.

  16. Anonymous on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 4:01 am 

    The 8000 bpd is a typo or glitch of some kind. They mean 8000 thousand (units of the EIA table). Or 8 million if you want to be simple. About 5.5 MM product exports and about 2.5 MM crude exports. And it bounces around week to week because individual ship loadings can slide a day or two from week to week.

  17. Bob Jones on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 4:54 am 


    That was a fantastic article. It really helped me understand, economically, why the future BAU is doomed for the United States.

    The future may be bleak, but at least I can understand it in logical and practical terms, that I can explain to others my age.

    The USA is simply too unproductive to continue consuming oil at current rates without some kind of economic disaster in the next few years.

  18. Cloggie on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 5:27 am 

    $5B Chinese creditline for Venezuela to get the oilproduction going again:

  19. twocats on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 8:26 am 

    “The Hubbert Linearity method was fairly accurate before the age of creaming. As long as conventional wells were used, the Hubbert method gave you a pretty good estimate of URR. And you could also calculate the probable decline rate with the Hubbert method. But no more. A field is creamed by massive infill drilling with horizontal wells that skim the very top of the reservoir. The decline rate is then drastically reduced while the depletion rate is drastically increased. Things will go just great until the water hits those horizontal wells at the top of the reservoir. Then production will drop like a rock.” – ron patterson

    this is what happens when those wells finally get hit with water:

    so all this talk about reliable sources or EIA estimates is complete and utter waste of time. PO has been masked trading decline for depletion. and why not – given the reverse scenario that oil might not have been recovered in a potential collapse situation.

  20. MASTERMIND on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 9:14 am 

    Shale might have peaked

    BP questions pace of US tight oil growth as productivity fades –Platts
    “It does perhaps suggest that the very rapid increases in tight oil productivity that characterized much of the initial phase of the shale revolution may be beginning to fade,” Dale said.

    “More recently, increasing bottlenecks within the supply chain, together with signs that investors are becoming less willing to finance continued high levels of investment, suggest there may be some limits to the speed with which tight oil can grow going forward,” he said.

  21. print baby print on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 9:17 am 

    I supose in those 9% included corn ethanol -OOIIILLL hahhaha used cocked restaurant oil manure methane oil coal ooiiilll etc…

  22. print baby print on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 9:19 am 

    and with all of that ‘ oil’ we can use more of it

  23. MASTERMIND on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 9:21 am 

    The shale industry has more debt than Venezuela and Saudi Arabia combined

  24. Duncan Idaho on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 9:41 am 

    “EIA projects that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.8 million b/d in 2018”

    Too bad we use 19-20 million b/d. Got to import!

  25. Shortend on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 10:18 am 

    Good thing there isn’t Global Warming or we would be really fucked.

  26. rockman on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 2:36 pm 

    deadly – “Great source rocks make great source rock-reservoirs.” Actually, the reservoir conditions in sources rocks that create viable reservoirs is rather rare. There are numerous source rocks even in the US that have yet to prove significant producers. Even in areas of good producing source rocks as the Eagle Ford Shale: there are source rocks both above and below the EFS that have yet to be proven viable.

    In fact, consider the largest oil field in Texas: the East Texas Oil Field. I doubt anyone here can name the source rock that fed it without looking it up. Obviously not familiar since no one is trying to develop that shale. I could go with the Monterey Shale. At least some folks are familiar with I after the USGS had to retract the ridiculous potential recovery from it they has initially reported.

    In fact, it’s been shown that even the Eagle Ford Shale only a portion of the formation is a significant producer. Obviously there are dozens of oil source rocks in the US: all one has to do is look at the distribution of oil fields across the country: can some name the source rocks for those in Mississippi? Colorado? Wyoming? Lots of oil produced in those states so there must be source rocks associated with them, right? And yet no big horizontal frac’d shales plays going one in those areas.

  27. print baby print on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 12:43 am 

    I heard if you squzze a sea peble hard enough you can get oil and goldp

  28. Rocfurth on Fri, 6th Jul 2018 8:54 am 

    Peak oil was 1970. Nuf said.

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