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Page added on November 13, 2018

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US Expected to Produce Half of Global Oil and Gas Output by 2025

Production

Relentless American shale development is set to allow the U.S. to leapfrog the world’s other major oil and gas producers, with the potential for the country to account for roughly half of global crude and natural growth by 2025, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday.

In its annual World Energy Outlook report, the IEA said its main projection scenario through to 2040 foresees the U.S. accounting for nearly 75% and 40% of global oil and gas growth, respectively, over the next six years. Growth is expected to…

WSJ



15 Comments on "US Expected to Produce Half of Global Oil and Gas Output by 2025"

  1. I AM THE MOB on Tue, 13th Nov 2018 7:52 am 

    The IEA is grossly overestimating shale growth

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-IEA-Is-Grossly-Overestimating-Shale-Growth.html

  2. Ghung on Tue, 13th Nov 2018 10:45 am 

    What an idiotic headline. Output = growth? Have these people really gotten that dumb or is it just a clickbait attempt. Either way, I’m betting a lot of idiots fall for it.

  3. rockman on Tue, 13th Nov 2018 11:17 am 

    Ghung – So true. One has to at least have an accurate forecast of future oil prices in order to accurately predict future US shale production. But even that would not be a guarantee. And since no one has a CONSISTANT history of predicting future oil prices (in particular the IEA) that production prediction is rather worthless IMHO.

  4. Mark Ziegler on Tue, 13th Nov 2018 11:21 am 

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/impactpartners/2018/11/13/how-to-prepare-for-retirement-using-the-three-bucket-approach/#675fffdc757d

    When global output drops from 100 million barrels a day to 40 million or so then maybe.

  5. Outcast_Searcher on Tue, 13th Nov 2018 12:28 pm 

    Ghung, you’re right. In the old days before computers were involved in day to day things (say, before the 80’s), you could blame the editors. They were generally responsible for titling the news stories in papers, etc.

    Today, there’s no such excuse. I quit subscribing to the WSJ years ago because its pages were so often biased or poorly written re science and scientific issues. This kind of nonsense was another quality deterioration I noticed. Of course THAT is true with pretty much all papers, as revenue becomes a greater challenge.

  6. Outcast_Searcher on Tue, 13th Nov 2018 12:30 pm 

    Good old mob. And we should use the ever prescient Cassandra projections of constant economic doom and mayhem and oil shortages, etc? LOL

    Just like price, output in the short term is hard to predict. The overall trend, re technology (and admitting oil products don’t care where they come from when consumers use them) is rather obvious over time, OTOH.

  7. makati1 on Tue, 13th Nov 2018 5:17 pm 

    “US Expected to Produce Half of Global Oil and Gas Output by 2025”

    Hahahahahaha!

    The US will be in a great depression by 2025. Tell the suckers/investors anything to keep them on board the sinking SS Petroleum that was broadsided by the also sinking USS Debt.

  8. Davy on Tue, 13th Nov 2018 5:26 pm 

    While I do not buy into the excessive optimism in this article I will acknowledge the amazing journey of the American Shale effort. Quite a change from what you have been preaching now for years huh, billy? Do you see why I told you all along your agenda gets in the way of reality? This is not the only example of your failed agenda.

  9. Anonymous on Wed, 14th Nov 2018 10:17 am 

    The headline is mistaken (growth versus overall) but if you read the very first sentence of the article itself, this is corrected. So let’s not get distracted.

    US being half growth is not so crazy given recent performance.

    Yes, of course price will matter (and both economic growth and OPEC can affect this, not just non-OPEC supply). However, the detailed study does have the price assumptions listed.

    FWIW, it is useful to look at past predictions. A year ago, the NOV STEO said US oil would go up from 9.2 to 9.9 bopd in a year (AUG17 to AUG18). In fact it went up to 11.35. The funny thing is EIA was criticized for being too optimistic, here, and at POB (and even by many mainstream analysts). But actually they were far too pessimistic.

  10. deadly on Wed, 14th Nov 2018 7:58 pm 

    PRODUCING WELLS COMPLETE:
    #34484 – MARATHON OIL COMPANY, YELLOWFACE USA 13-23H, NESE 22-151N-94W, MCKENZIE
    CO., 6504 BOPD, 5714 BWPD – BAKKEN

    #32975 – MARATHON OIL COMPANY, JEROME USA 12-23TFH, NESE 22-151N-94W, MCKENZIE CO.,
    9166 BOPD, 7107 BWPD – BAKKEN

    Two wells that look ok for barrels per day.

    The water produced is rather high, though.

    Don’t know how long they’ll go like that, but the production should last into the future.

    It is going to help, so I can fuel up the truck one more time.

    Life is good.

  11. rockman on Thu, 15th Nov 2018 10:36 am 

    Deadly – Just had such a conversation with my engineer yesterday. A company that had drilled hz wells similar to ours began production at 800 to 1,400 bopd. We limited ours to 150 bopd but could have done as they did. They were trying to impress their investor base so they could get more capex from them. We now have details of their production to date. Our comparable wells will have a higher ultimate recovery and a better rate of return.

    Why? Easily understood by an experienced reservoir engineer. Which does not include the vast majority of the public and most here. I won’t waste space explaining it now. The term we use is OPR…optimum production rate. The OPR will never be the max initial production possible. Never. In fact, significantly exceeding the OPR will often damage the reservoir and even cause well failure. But many public companies will try to build as much enthusiasm in the market place as possible in an effort to increase stock prices. My company was privately owned. My billionaire owner didn’t give a crap about impressing anyone…only the ROR. In fact we never put out a press release describing our effort despite the fact that we were the first company (that most in the industry didn’t even knew existed) in the Gulf Coast to have a commercial success in the type of wells we were drilling. He didn’t want anyone trying to duplicate what we were doing and thus competing with us. To date only one other company has caught on.

    Almost no one here is aware of the activities of the private petroleum companies because they don’t put our press releases nor are they required by the SEC to make their data public. An industry insider can dig out some of those details but is not easy and very time consuming. Certain data has to be given to the regulators and that becomes public data…if you know where to look. Of course, that segment is much smaller then the publicly owned segment. But it is where much of the tech advances are first developed. Public companies don’t tend to try new “tricks” until someone else has success with them.

  12. Coffeeguyzz on Thu, 15th Nov 2018 1:57 pm 

    Cowboyistan!!!

    Fire up the big blocks, boys. We’re all gonna be cruising up and down main for years ta come.

  13. Dredd on Fri, 16th Nov 2018 4:29 am 

    US Expected to Produce Half of Global Oil and Gas Output by 2025

    Gives new meaning to “dreamers” …

  14. Antius on Fri, 16th Nov 2018 4:37 am 

    “with the potential for the country to account for roughly half of global crude and natural growth by 2025, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday”

    That is very different to: “US Expected to Produce Half of Global Oil and Gas Output by 2025”

    The first is talking about production increases; the second is about total production.

    The second would imply the US producing 50 million bpd within 6 years. Even the most optimistic sources are not predicting that.

  15. deadly on Fri, 16th Nov 2018 5:35 am 

    The Bakken petroleum system does have accumulated units, pools of oil.

    The oil isn’t all trapped in the shale.

    Now and then, when a pool is discovered, there will be a better than average well out there.

    More recent information about ‘lodgepole mounds’ in the Bakken shows plenty of oil at those spots. Very few have been discovered and is believed the Bakken has hundreds of those mounds.

    The drilling won’t stop for many years, exploration will continue to get zee oil. lol

    Lodgepole Mounds

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