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The Shocking Outlook For US Oil Production

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Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its World Energy Outlook 2017. The report identified four large-scale shifts underway in the global energy system:

  • The rapid deployment and falling costs of clean energy technologies
  • The growing electrification of energy
  • The shift to a more services-oriented economy and a cleaner energy mix in China
  • The resilience of shale gas and tight oil in the United States

All of these shifts have implications for investors, but it was the projections on the U.S. shale boom that garnered most of the headlines.

A New Oil Superpower?

The report projected that the U.S. would be a net exporter of oil within a decade, and is set to become the world’s dominant oil and gas production leader for decades. The IEA further projected that the U.S. will be responsible for 80% of the world’s new oil production through 2025, and that will keep downward pressure on oil prices.

On the other side of that argument are those who either believe shale oil production can’t rise much more before peaking, or that electric vehicles (EVs) will grow rapidly enough that additional oil production won’t be needed.

The Argument for Energy Independence

In response to the IEA report, last week I published a pair of articles in the Wall Street Journal and Forbes that took the position that the U.S. can achieve energy independence. But, it depends on how energy independence is defined. There are also several important caveats.

I won’t recreate all of the arguments here, but I will link them for readers who want to drill deeper into the subject.

The Wall Street Journal article is: Is the U.S. On Track for Energy Independence? In that article, I defined energy independence:

“Our level of energy dependence is a function of much oil we consume versus how much we produce. Energy independence would be achieved if the amount of petroleum products we consume is equal to or less than what we produce.”

The Forbes article — Is U.S. Energy Independence In Sight? — is more focused on numbers and trends.

Never Say Never

In 2005 I was asked whether the U.S. could achieve energy independence. I basically answered that there was a near zero percent chance of that.

At that time, U.S. net imports of crude oil and finished products like gasoline had reached a record 12.5 million barrels per day (BPD). U.S. energy dependence had never been higher, and the outlook was for more of the same.

I then proceeded to watch U.S. shale oil ramp up rapidly over the next decade. U.S. refineries started exporting finished products and U.S. net imports fell by nearly 8 million BPD. My certainty began to waver year after year.

In fact, prior to the oil price crash of 2014, the U.S. was on a trajectory to reach zero net imports by 2019:

Anyone predicting such a sharp decline would have been laughed at in 2005. Yet that’s exactly what happened. So, I have learned to be careful about what I declare to be impossible. I think it’s preferable to outline scenarios and apply caveats.

The Caveats

Oil production doesn’t occur in a vacuum. Capital investments are made on the basis of the outlook for oil prices. An outlook for higher prices will lead to greater access to capital markets, and a higher level of capital spending.

But the IEA believes the surge of U.S. production will keep oil prices in check. An outlook for low oil prices will discourage capital spending. It will also tighten up credit for the oil producers.

History is full of examples of certain projections for oil prices that turned out to be 100% wrong. Perhaps the most famous example is the 1999 cover story of The Economist that projected the “new normal” for oil would be $5-$10/bbl:


Underinvestment followed over the next few years, and by 2005 there were shortages that would ultimately drive prices well above $100/bbl. Thus, if enough oil companies accept the projection by the IEA of low oil prices, the result could be just the opposite.

Peak Shale Oil?

Meanwhile, U.S. oil producers are exploiting the sweetest spots in the shale plays first. Over time, those sweet spots will deplete, and production will have to move to spots with poorer returns.

The implications are that unless oil prices rise, shale oil production growth will stall. We saw that in 2015 when oil prices crashed. Production retreated from the marginal areas, and U.S. production declined for the first time since the shale boom started.

A return to $50/bbl oil in 2017 has caused production to bounce back. Over the past 12 months, oil production has risen by nearly one million BPD. But that growth rate can’t be maintained unless oil prices rise.

Energy Independence Could Prove Fleeting

I would conclude that even if shale oil production enables us to achieve energy independence, it will likely be fleeting. In other words, had we reached zero net imports by 2019, we would still be facing a shale oil peak at some point. Then, the U.S. would once again start to become dependent on foreign producers for our oil.

The only way around that is if oil demand can be curbed. This could be achieved, in theory, by a shift to electric vehicles, more fuel-efficient vehicles, and widespread adoption of ride-sharing.

Could that happen? I don’t foresee it for at least a decade, but now I know not to say “never.”

investing daily

27 Comments on "The Shocking Outlook For US Oil Production"

  1. fmr-paultard on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 8:50 am 

    you know it’s hard to promote women in combat but whatever my efforts amount to, they will attribute it to “zionist conspiracy”. that’s why I thank President Trump each and every day for refusal to grab the bumpski so we can shoot SENTAPBs with it.

    This news looks like the demise of the dollar is fake news. Thanks ZH, snsnews, mercola. I’m still glad to report that alt-tard media just disappeared from the face of the earth and the people who gave us Pravda had to register as foreign agent.

    I’m still celebrating eurotard’s early retirement. I’m sure he’s watching with itchy fingers from mom’s basement.

  2. rockman on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 9:22 am 

    fmr – Are you too lazy to find an appropriate thread for your comment or just too f*cking stupid to know how to start one? I’ve been frustrated for a while with folks high jacking threads. From now on I plan to call out folks when they stray too far from the subject matter. Appropriate side issues are OK.

    So if you can explain how your post fits the subject of this thread have at it.

  3. fmr-paultard on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 9:31 am 

    roc dollar will not demise was my intention to be relevant. i meant to say if we export oil then it would be in the dollar. apologies if i didn’t make the connection clear.


  4. MASTERMIND on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 9:37 am 

    The IEA is grossly overestimating shale growth

    The US Shale Business is “not profitable” and can’t fund itself whether oil is at 100 or 50 dollars a barrel

    MIT Technology Review: Shale Oil Will Boost U.S. Production, But It Won’t Bring Energy Independence

    The world’s largest oil trader Vitol says US oil production will peak in 2018

  5. Richard on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 10:06 am 

    Ten years ago, anyone who knew about the energy subject, thought that the society they lived in would be different ten years later and beyond, which is true as of now. There is now more mobile computing and the slow shift to electrical vehicles.

    So one can’t ever say never as a concrete fact, nothing is guaranteed.

  6. Sissyfuss on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 10:47 am 

    Rock, let me correct your syntax. ” Am frustrated with folks that are high while jacking our threads.”

  7. paulo1 on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 11:00 am 

    I will go on (for what it is worth)record that the US WILL NOT achieve anything close to energy independence in a normal economy.

    Now, if the whole house of cards falls down and the bulk tanks are full with limited places to sell and use the oil, then perhaps there will be some realistic exports.

    Then, production will crash big time.

    When these feel good hype articles occur I look to make sure a big shoe isn’t looming over our family’s heads.

  8. deadlykillerbeaz on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 11:19 am 

    Future Global Crude Oil Supply

    L. F. Ivanhoe

    Inexpensive crude oil fuels the world’s economies and armies. In 1986, for the first time, the global production of crude oil and natural gas liquids exceeded new reserves added. Proved oil reserves at the end of 1985 stood at 707.6 billion bbl (BBO), but declined to 703.1 BBO by the end of 1986. The 1986 reserve decrease–4.5 BBO–was 20.4% of total global production of 22.0 BBO. This handwriting on the wall is very bad news.
    The world’s recoverable crude oil and natural gas liquids discovered through 1985 totaled 1,258 BBO, including cumulative production of 551 BBO and 707 BBO of reserves. At current production rates, half of all discovered oil will have been burned up by 1989. Timing of the end of our oil age can be extrapolated from a modified “Hubbert curve,” with future production resembling a mirror image of past production. The watershed beginning of the inevitable decline in global crude oil supplies can be expected in the late 1990s, although the date may be over 30 years later in some “super-oily” Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

    Clearly the day of reckoning will be postponed by any new oil discoveries. These will probably be distributed much as are the present global reserves (e.g., 68% OPEC; 11% USSR and China; 21% rest of world). Of this, 56% will be in the Persian Gulf area. “Giant” fields (more than 0.5 BBO reserves) contain 75% of the world’s reserves. Discoveries of oil in the globe’s 320 known giant fields peaked at 125 BBO during the period 1961-1965, after which giant field discoveries plunged to only 10 BBO during 1981-1985. Henceforth, we should expect to find few giant whales (but many minnows) in the non-OPEC world’s fished-out basins.

    Every new field will help as global crude oil supplies dwindle. Therefore, it is essential that all large prospects outside the Persian Gulf be tested promptly, so the oil-importing nations will know what size of non-OPEC reserves are available.

    I know I will make comments that are obtuse, irrelevant, however, are anecdotal and tangentially related to the subject.

    I remember over at the Broken Oil Drum that the total daily production for the Bakken was estimated to be 317,000 bpd. Actually, it became 1.2 million barrels per day.

    Predictions can be and often are wrong. You can pencil it out until the cows come home, if it’s wrong, it’s wrong. Everybody makes mistakes.

    Also, saw in one of the comments back then ‘very good oil’.

    At anywhere between 900,000 and a million barrels per day, 365,000,000 barrels per year, in ten years there will be 3.65 billion barrels more depleted.

    Should be close to the mark of 5.67 billion recoverable by current estimates and predictions.

    Of course, those predictions and estimates could go wrong.

    I see some ten new oil wells in a sixty year old field, the oil is not gone yet.

    Just too much Everclear in the Harvey Wallbangers.

  9. Shortend on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 11:30 am 

    The shock will come by the actual flooding from AGW by burning all those fossil fuels.
    No free lunch, fellas

  10. Revi on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 12:06 pm 

    Good luck with having the US become the new swing producer.

    We have done it with lots of investment, but that may soon end.

  11. Apneaman on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 12:13 pm 

    The barrel counting circle jerk continues.

    The humans have already triggered massive planetary forces that barrel counting retards and most humans are too cognitively limited to comprehend.

    I say there is already enough inertia coming to change the environment past the point that humans can adapt. Many positive self reinforcing feedbacks are well underway and they cannot be stopped. Technically they can be slowed down, but that would require the humans to slow down to a level that would mean much death and suffering. Humans will never voluntarily slow down.

    Even if I’m wrong at this point, a few more years of insatiable reward seeking will do it.

    Fossil-fuel emissions to reach an all-time high in 2017, scientists say — dashing hopes of progress

    New projections are a disappointment to those who hoped that worldwide emissions levels had peaked.

    It appears that the humans are in a hurry to bring on their doom, but appearances can be deceiving. They are simply following their biological programming and are really just puppets whose strings are being pulled by the Maximum Power Principle.

    “The maximum power principle(MPP) in ecology states that self-­organizing systems, especially biological systems, capture and use available energy to develop network designs that maximize the energy fluxes through them, which are compatible with the constraints of the environment, and that those systems that maximize the throughput will endure. Thus, the MPP governs expediencies or efficiency in both the ecosystems functional and structural development. In this way, MPP can be used as a macro-level alternative model to interpreting evolution as a process whereby elements within an ecosystem are selected based upon their contribution to the processing of energy through the ecosystem, thus working to maximize the overall energy throughput.”

    No creature has ever captured and used available energy quite like the cancer apes have.

  12. Apneaman on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 12:39 pm 

    Hey kids, let’s take a look at some recent AGW Jacked consequences and what’s next..

    Firestorm: Fort McMurray wildfire is a warning, book claims

    ‘This isn’t going to go away; it’s going to get a lot worse’

    “Fort McMurray was a harbinger of what’s coming down the pipe and I think that this year demonstrated that it’s maybe coming a lot faster than a lot people anticipated,”

    coming a lot faster than a lot people anticipated, indeed.

    Fort McMurray, Alberta, Gatlinburg, TN & Santa Olga, Chile all burn up in a 10 month period in 2016 and almost no one except me connected the dots.

    2016 Great Smoky Mountains wildfires

    “The 2016 Great Smoky Mountains wildfires were a complex of wildfires which began in late November 2016. Some of the towns most impacted were Pigeon Forge and Gatlinburg, both near Great Smoky Mountains National Park.[2] The fires claimed at least 14 lives,[3][4][5] injured 134,[6] and are one the largest natural disasters in the history of Tennessee.[7][8][9][10][11][12]

    By December 12, the fires had burned more than 10,000 acres (15 square miles) inside the national park, and 6,000 acres in other parts of the area. At least 14,000 area residents and tourists were forced to evacuate, while over 2000 buildings were damaged and/or destroyed.[4][6]

    One of the largest wildfires was the Chimney Tops 2 Fire, which burned more than 10,000 acres, and closed the Chimney Tops Trail.[13]

    The Great Smoky Mountains wildfires were the deadliest wildfires in the eastern U.S. since the Great Fires of 1947, which killed 16 people in Maine.[14][15] In addition, the fires were also the most deadly and destructive of the 2016 Southeastern United States wildfires.”

    Deadly wildfire razes entire town in Chile: ‘Literally like Dante’s Inferno’

    “An entire town has been consumed by flames in Chile as unusually hot, dry weather undermined efforts to combat the worst forest fires in the country’s recent history.

    Chile battles devastating wildfires: ‘We have never seen anything on this scale’

    More than 1,000 buildings, including schools, nurseries, shops and a post office were destroyed in Santa Olga, the biggest of several communities to be reduced to ashes in the Maule region.”

    Wildfire 2017: A look back at the worst fire season in BC’s history

    “Over 1.2 million hectares of land burned… just over $561,000,000, just in suppression costs alone… and just the amount of people displaced by this year’s fire season, over 65,000 people were evacuated over the course of the summer.”

    It all seemed to come at once, as a result record high temperatures in early July and a lack of precipitation; just two factors that made 2017 the worst fire year on record.”

    & California 2017

    42 Dead, 8,400 Structures Burned, More Than $1 Billion in Damage: the Devastating Toll of California’s Wildfires It was one of the worst natural disasters in the state’s history.

    Claims losses from California’s wildfires top $3 billion; state says some insurers may exit

    European wildfire numbers explode in 2017:

    Since the humans will never stop and the hammer will continue to fall with ever more frequent and powerful blows, what are y’all doing to protect your children and loved ones?

    Tough choice for hardcore conservatards who know it’s going down but must continue to play the denier game to show tribal loyalty.

    Further denial only leads to even greater unpreparedness, more avoidable deaths and suffering.

    All the big oil and corporate scum and political class that denial protects and enriches will sacrifice you and your kids on the alter of profit and abandon the entire populous – see Puerto Rico for a look at your future. They don’t give a fuck about you and yours at all.

    Hardcore liberals and environmentalists are fucking idiots too. For the tribe that claims to revere science they have totally missed the boat on many counts and their fantasy ideals of a green civilization are dangerous in their own right.

    Happy barrel counting.

  13. Outcast_Searcher on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 1:03 pm 

    Apneaman said:
    “Hardcore liberals and environmentalists are fucking idiots too. For the tribe that claims to revere science they have totally missed the boat on many counts and their fantasy ideals of a green civilization are dangerous in their own right.”

    It’s worse than that. The liberals, who claim to care about the earth and AGW, will NOT pass even a small CO2 tax — even in liberal strongholds in the US. Not even close.

    You see, it’s easy to yap at the GOP, but to actually make even a small sacrifice and DO SOMETHING meaningful to cut CO2 production would mean some economic pain. And at the end of the day, the vast majority of even the “hard core” liberals don’t want to do THAT — they just want to randomly bark at the GOP to win elections.

    So in practice, they’re really no better than the AGW denialists. Both sides are pathetic.

  14. Davy on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 2:01 pm 

    OS, it is a problem of overal human nature in a clash with the reality of a catch 22. Survival requires development and that development is destroying the planet. Fake greens think we can have development and save the planet. They want green affluence. The only real affluence is natural affluence in the cycle of life. We have broken that connection and we are now too far to recover. Answers and solutions???? I feel only individual and local. Yet, there are techno solutions just not “the” solutions. These solutions are only an orderly retreat. The greater civilization is on an crash gradient somewhere ahead. Let’s hope we can delay that painful end.

  15. Apneaman on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 4:57 pm 

    Outcast_Searcher, if I thought it was a tie, I would say so, but as I have been trying to hammer away, the denial leaves the country and it’s citizens almost completely unprotected. Professional deniers and semi professional like rockman do indeed have blood on their hands.

    Let’s take a look at some of the victims faces and stories.

    The human cost of heat

    In 2016, 150 people in Maricopa County died of heat. Here are the stories of 30 of them. Click on a name or photo to read more.

    Phoenix’s heat is rising — and so is the danger

    Phoenix’s notorious heat is getting worse, ticking upward and sticking around longer as global warming sears the Southwest.

    “During the hottest week of the year in America’s hottest big city, 10 people died of heat-related causes.

    Another nine people died the following week in metro Phoenix, as June gave way to July, and authorities suspect heat may have contributed to an additional 27 deaths over those two weeks.

    The average temperature in Phoenix in that period was 113 degrees, peaking at 119 on June 20, the day of the summer solstice. On four days, the temperature never dropped below 90 degrees, even in the dead of night.
    A Southwest Airlines 737 appears as a mirage from heat

    By the first day of fall, Arizona’s notorious heat had contributed to more than 60 deaths in Maricopa County and was suspected in 119 more since the start of 2017.”

    Outcast_Searcher, I mostly agree with you on the lifestyle issue although to be fair there are many people who have made an effort albeit not enough to show up in the aggregate. Most, but not all are left leaning or middle of the road. I don’t think most realize how much they would have needed to reduce to actually matter and I’m using past tense because it’s too late for that and goes against human nature.

    Thing is, I am not even talking about reducing emissions & lifestyle (and never have) I am talking about the only choice left and that is protecting people and important infrastructure. The clock is ticking on this. Much of the suffering of the past few years worth of AGW Jacked disasters could have been prevented at a 10th of the cost of rescuing and rebuild after the fact.

    At this point, denial to protect profits and idealogical is beyond criminal.

    Any denier is no patriot and about as far from it as possible. I say they are traitors. Patriots do not profit or protect those who do at the cost of their own country and people.

    ‘I’m a patriot. I love my country…except for the land and the air and the water and half the people in it. Other than that I love my country’

    Tell yourself.

  16. Makati1 on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 5:29 pm 

    Propaganda by “Investing Daily” says it all.

    A sales pitch to keep the suckers from jumping off the sinking USS Fraked Petroleum.

    Too many “ifs” and “maybes” to be worth reading. Guesses and wishes.

  17. Anonymous on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 6:54 pm 

    0. Appreciate that there is a little less off topic in here. I actually enjoy a sprinkling of teasing and games and sidetracks, but the other threads are completely a waste in comments.

    1. This coming out from IEA is very interesting. Not sure if it will be right or wrong. But I appreciate they are trying to get in front of a big idea. Who would have predicted the growth of shale gas 10 years ago? Just because it is audacious does not make it wrong. Rapier has learned his lesson on that.

    1.5. In general, to date, the skeptics (whether strong or light peak oilers) have been wrong about shale oil and even more so about gas. They have had higher volumes at lower prices than “haters” predicted. I would include RR with the light peak oilers.

    2. Mark Papa (ex EOG CEO) had an interesting PPT that just came out saying that shale would disappoint. Of course HIS COMPANY will grow fast (EOG and CLR have been similar). PXD just doesn’t care and says their company will grow fast and so will the rest of the Permian and US.

    3. EIA had a webinar last Thursday on the disagreement on the 2017 forecast. Presentations from Hamm and from EIA give different points of view. Kind of a more near term issue than IEA, but still relevant. The presentations are on the EIA site. Transcripts to follow.

  18. Makati1 on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 7:28 pm 

    Anon, without bank/government subsidies coming out the kazoo, shale would never have lasted this long, or even gotten started. It is a loosing game. It is nothing more than a vast polluting agent in a land full of pollutants. A desperate last gasp to be “energy independent’ at a high ecological price.

  19. onlooker on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 7:38 pm 

    Shale is a fraud and scam similar to corn ethanol. That is all civilization has to offer us now. They are running out of ideas and resources. The exponential function and tipping points

  20. Davy on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 8:03 pm 

    Onlooker, what you say is true but until we get there Nony is right too. This is about getting from here to there which means for doomers like us walking a tight rope mentally. If you tip either way too much you lost it. What is it? “It” is reality and the truth. It takes more than honesty. It also takes vision.

  21. rockman on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 10:26 pm 

    Sissy – Perhaps we are both being too harsh on fmr. Mayb English is a second language because even with his eplanation I still don’t get the connection.

  22. onlooker on Wed, 22nd Nov 2017 3:12 am 

    Davy this is the “vision” I believe in the most. We are going to experience a huge die off. Our modernity as it stands will be lost. That to me seems now inevitable. So maybe some smart people will figure out how and where to ride out the “Storm”. If this site helps even one of them to do so, it was well worth having it up. In the meantime I feel it my obligation to shoot down bogus solutions similar to what you and others do, in pointing out fallacies uttered by some. I do know I have no patience for those intentionally or not, living in fantasy worlds

  23. Davy on Wed, 22nd Nov 2017 6:13 am 

    We are mostly on the same page onlooker other than the company we keep and really does that matter to survival. We play our political games here on this board and it is just a distraction. Lots of mental cases here that makes us all mental cases together because families live with dysfunction.

    I am a doomer since 2000. I have already been through one near collapse in 08. I started preparing for that moment in 05. I did some extreme prepping and adapting that ended up costing me some money. I don’t regret it because we almost didn’t make it and I was at least mentally and partially physical prepared to ride the collapse gradient down better than others. I say partially “physically” because no one that will be fully ready for it. Not even the so called elites. Real longer term survival is “ALL” about a functioning community of some kind in the local you choose to reside in when the down turn comes. It is also about “LUCK” because we have no idea where the storm is going to make landfall only its possible course.

    My point is as doomers we are living in the status quo and trying to leave it because we see its inevitable end. Those who are honest about science see this can’t continue. Many today are honest about the science but then dishonest about the fantasy futures. I call them fake greens and techno optimist. Many are not even honest about the future and only use science as needed to support their narrative of manifest destiny. All kinds of sky daddies out there we can wish to. I call them browns status quo’ers. We as honest doomers have to walk a tight rope of living for an unknown world ahead in the here and now. This could continue for years but we still have to live with the honesty of knowing this can’t last. To do this you can’t become overly doomish and you can’t live in that techno optimistic stupor that so many today live in. The delusional browns science deniers have no future except for dumb luck. They are the blind going to slaughter. It becomes a matter of becoming a hybrid.

    I am talking of a game of yielding with focus. It is about collapsing in place. It is about living a little pain and suffering now because you know it is ahead and you want to get fit for it. It means stoic living and downsizing with dignity. It means yielding to forces with no future. It is about the wisdom of embracing “less” instead of “more” and saying “no” instead of always “yes”. That is easier said than done because the global narrative is about yes and more. Why protest the status quo for status quo solutions when the status quo has no future. WTF, some of these young people today think this is going to continue? Well I guess if you are young and full of vigor you have to channel it. I guess the human nature of revenge and retribution has a degree of satisfaction. You can be sure when SHTF there will be some lynching’s. There always is. I am saying leave that and work on a covey hole like the little mammals did as the dinosaurs died off. Be ready to scavenge and be opportunistic. If you try to leave the status quo now you will be bankrupt in a year except in those rare cases of success. We all know of the guy that goes off into the wilderness and lives off the land so to speak. Most normal people have no choice but to pay bills. I am saying pay bills but avoid the baggage that comes with becoming a sheeple.

  24. Anonymous on Wed, 22nd Nov 2017 1:31 pm 

    Oil rigs up 9 this week. Maybe IEA is right. US growing again!

  25. george on Wed, 22nd Nov 2017 3:06 pm 

    The more we pump the more we use.

    We are a happy go shopping nation.

    The KSA is preparing for the inevitable.

    Happy motoring.

  26. Boat on Wed, 22nd Nov 2017 8:36 pm 

    A mouse, told ya a few weeks ago along with other attempts that rig count don’t mean shut. Well completion is the real news along with the number of drilled but uncompleted wells. US production will grow as fast as fracking crews can be throwntogether.

  27. Anonymous on Thu, 23rd Nov 2017 11:20 pm 

    Rigs drilling lead to completions. It is just delayed. They are not drilling holes in the ground for no reason. Costs money to book a rig. Producers do so because they have projects to invest in. When rigs rise it means activity is going up and when the drop the reverse. You can look at 2014 high, then the 2016 and back up now. So…of course rig count is an important metric.

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