Peak Oil is You

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The Peak Oil Plateau Is Close


Oil demand growth is flattening rapidly.

Peak oil demand is likely to happen in the next five to 10 years.

Borrowing has become very difficult, production is limited to cash flow.

Oil prices are likely to rise in the intermediate term.

Higher oil prices will spur the adoption of EVs and alternative energy.

This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Margin of Safety Investing. Get started today »

For what it’s worth, I do not vilify the use of fossil fuels in the past. For a very long time, using coal, oil and natural gas were the only options for improving global standard of living. I believe we need to keep that in context, even as the fossil fuel age ends.

With one recent exception, that might prove to be early, but not wrong. My analysis of oil has been spot on since around 2000 when I first bought Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) and a while later Petrobras (PBR) just after its IPO. In 2011, on MarketWatch, I predicted the shale boom a few months ahead of research reports from Goldman Sachs (GS) and Citigroup (C). In June of 2014 on MarketWatch, I forecast a large decline in the price of oil, possibly extremely lower. Extremely lower occurred.

Since then, we have seen one substantial rally in the price of oil which I also forecast. We also have seen the most recent drop of oil prices become a far more pronounced crash in oil (and gas) stocks – an occurrence I thought would be a mere correction, but that turned into a collapse.

The short run for oil is going to see more pain for most high debt oil companies that hold second best energy plays. The majors are not only overweight dead assets, but face a unique problem of litigation related to their climate change-related activities.

When the short-term carnage is over, the coming “plateau” could be very profitable for those who can pick the survivors. Most of the survivors have two things in common: Low-cost conventional assets and a major Permian presence.

What Is The Peak Oil Plateau?

As I define it, the “peak oil plateau” is the period during which oil supply and demand growth flatten and will be roughly in balance. Here’s a simple chart I scratched together a couple years ago extending then EIA projections.

As you can see, my projections have peak oil demand a bit over 105 million barrels per day in the next several years. That is fudgable by a few million barrels and a few years, but I believe generally about right based on different sets of extrapolations I have compared.

Demand Destruction For Oil Is Closer Than You Think

Over the next several years, demand growth for oil will come to a halt. That flies in the face of projections by OPEC, most oil companies and especially amateur oil permabulls. Here’s a summary of graphics from BP’s (BP) Peak Oil Demand And Long-run Prices report.

Peak Oil DemandExxon Mobil (XOM) in their 2019 Outlook For Energy state that “demand growth slows beyond 2030.” Their projections assume EV and alternative energy adoption near the low-end of projections I’ve read and 16 million barrels per day of increased oil demand from emerging markets by 2040.

Oil Demand ExxonEven with those assumptions, Exxon never sees oil demand exceed about 112 mbd. This is a dramatic shift from just a few years ago when their projections had oil demand increasing handily through 2040 to well over 120mbd. OPEC has seen a similar shift in outlook.

Let’s use BP’s chart again with some annotations and explanation. Note that the EIA and IEA have similar projections based on current policies. Those policies include energy production policies, such as clean air and clean water requirements as well as climate change policies.

Oil Decline To 2040What you see is that I believe that the IEA Sustainable Development will be the true impact on oil demand. I will take that a step further – I believe it’s the base case. Why?

My analysis points me to four rapidly moving developments:

  • Climate change policy at the government and corporate level is offsetting oil demand growth now. Changes to law and business practices to fight climate change are becoming more pronounced. China and India are in the early stages of massive clean energy pushes. Many emerging markets are skipping right over fossil fuel based electricity grids. As soon as a Democrat becomes president (which I put at over 85% likely in 2021), policy changes will become even more pronounced in the United States.
  • Technology improvement in battery technology for EVs (electric vehicles), hybrid vehicles and energy storage is happening quickly. My projections are that in roughly four to six years, passenger EVs will be completely cost competitive with ICE vehicles. Recent improvements and deals by Tesla (TSLA) indicate that at least the high end of the market will get there. However, the unveiling of the new Ford (F) Mustang demonstrates the entire market might be there very soon. GM (GM) plans to launch 20 fully electric vehicles within four years. Toyota (TM) hybrids are already cost competitive with ICE. Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY), Volvo (OTCPK:VOLVY), BWM and others are on the way as well.
  • Demand for petrochemicals is wildly overstated. There’s already technology to replace much of the petroleum used in plastics. One company at the forefront is Newlight Technologies with their AirCarbon technology. Coca-Cola (KO) and Ikea already have used AirCarbon plastics.
  • Solar breakthroughs seem to occur each week. Efficiency is getting so high that solar is being used to power oil fields (that’s ironic isn’t it) and to replace coal fired power plants. It’s even accelerating past wind power now. One use for solar is being developed by a Bill Gates funded startup that just showed the ability to reduce fossil fuels for cement and other industrial uses by up to 60%.

Here’s where I think even the International Energy Agency data is light. The IEA projects over 130 million EVs on the road by 2030. I think this projection is extremely low. The U.S. alone could make up close to that number with minor improvements in adoption rates once Ford and GM come to market.

U.S. EV AdoptionGreentech Media

China and Europe remain the leaders in EV adoption. If China should reach the 30% market share for EVs they are seeking, then EV adoption by 2030 would exceed 250 million. It should be clear the pressure exerted by EVs on oil demand.

Ships (driven by IMO 2020 standards) also are becoming more efficient. This is in an age of tariffs that’s running into machine learning also moving supply chains. The moving of supply chains means that ocean container travel is likely to be lower for longer, and maybe forever, in addition to using less petroleum per mile.

Airplanes also are becoming more efficient, though delays in deployment are difficult to project. We have seen the Boeing (BA) 737 MAX grounded for months now. Even with growth in air travel, a recession or two in the 2020s, and aging of the global population could cause a flattening in air travel growth. My projections for jet fuel use are more flat than falling over time, but this does offset the general growth bias of most investors.

The theory that emerging markets will prop up oil demand also is proving to be a fallacy. Essentially all demand growth for oil is coming from the U.S., China and India. All three are looking to curtail that growth and reverse it by 2030. China and India already have passed legislation and California, which is one-sixth of the U.S. economy, is on the leading edge in America.

Global Oil Demand Growth

McKinsey provides a graphic that essentially labels my “base case” for oil use as their “new normal.”

McKinsey New Normal Oil

Extending this section into a book would not be difficult. Investors must accept that pressure on oil demand is real and accelerating.

Oil Supply Investment Is About To Crash Again

Capital budgets among U.S. oil producers have been flattening for a year now. Barclays (BCS) has estimated at least a 2% drop in capital spending this year and up to 7%. Cowen & Co has suggested total spending compared to last year to be down 10%-11%.

As it stands, borrowing to increase production is almost non existent for the industry. Refinancing debt that’s due has become difficult as well. At the DUG Midcontinent conference this week, as reported by Hart Energy, Guggenheim Partners managing director Subash Chandra said the industry is “in a full-blown liquidity crisis on top of our capital intensity issues.”

Projections for next year’s capital spending range as extreme as a 30% decrease. I don’t think that is likely, not yet. Here’s why.

As I said above, I think it’s very likely that a Democrat wins the presidency in 2020. All of them are saying they will end new drilling on public lands and offshore. Under this scenario, it would behoove companies to “drill, baby, drill” next year on public lands and offshore with every dime they have.

If by about March we do get a signal that the President Trump is floundering, I would expect companies to revise their annual capex as high as they can afford for 2020. They would drill and frack, quite possibly capping where they can.

Interestingly, Russia just stated they would be waiting until March to make an announcement about whether or not to change output. There could be a significant glut of oil next year only to fall off rapidly after the election.

What Can A Democrat President Do To Fracking?

Several Democratic presidential candidates also are saying they will ban fracking. Here’s what to know about that. Legally, that’s not something that can be done with an executive order – at least not without an immediate legal challenge that would like result a ban being at least temporarily halted.

In addition, the Republican tax cut bill included an underreported section that opened up oil drilling in large portions of the 19 million acre Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. And President Trump has been selling leases on public lands at a record pace with prices as low as $2 per acre. That throws a monkey wrench into undoing the leases.

What the executive branch can do and would do is work through existing air and water regulations to control fracking activity. This is an opinion that Wood Mackenzie also shares.

Gov. Gavin Newsom just imposed a moratorium on drilling and new leases on California due to spills and leaks. As somebody who has been to all the major shale plays except the DJ since 2011, I can tell you, there’s leaks and spills everywhere. The flaring of natural gas also is pervasive – take a look at any night time satellite image of America, you can see the oil fields glaring bigger than the megacities.

Environmental regulations strictly enforced would make certain oil projects uneconomical and those would stop for business reasons. In the intermediate term, that would in fact drive oil prices back up – a likelihood that Harold Hamm alluded to this week at DUG.

Democrats of course want to drive the price of oil and gas up at least from the current rock bottom levels. Driving up oil prices would spur the adoption of EVs and alternative energy even faster, which of course is a climate change policy goal.

Killing The Oil Zombies

In the next year, oil prices look likely to look weak and range bound, unless there’s a greater conflict in the Middle East, which could certainly happen.

The most recent decline in oil and natural gas prices already has been nothing short of cataclysmic for many exploration and production companies.

I outlined on Seeking Alpha the reasons “why oil stocks are priced for Armageddon.” Among the chief causes are an early stage shift away from fossil fuels, poor financial management in the shale patch, a remarkably strong divestment movement for oil and gas stocks, and general disinterest by Millennial investors.

Also, from what I can see, most oil executives and boards of directors did what they could to line their own pockets at the expense of shareholders. Many should face clawbacks as far as I’m concerned, and a few should get criminal charges (I felt the same way about bank executives and bank boards of directors during the “Great Recession”).

So far, we have seen the prices of many companies down well over 50% from rebound highs in 2018. Chesapeake Energy (CHK), a company I believed would survive, is on the verge of a reorganization that will likely wipe out or nearly wipe out current shareholders.

Larger, more oil focused companies, such as ConocoPhillips (COP), EOG (EOG) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are down 30-45% from 52-week highs. Even majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron (CVX) are down 17% and 5% from 52-week highs.

Clearly, some of this is piling on. Throwing out the babies with the bath water. That said, the bath water is very dirty.

If the price of oil (and gas – which is almost certain) remains low in 2020, then it’s almost assured that bankruptcies among companies not operating out of cash flow skyrockets. Bankruptcies already have ticked up in 2019:

Oil Company Bankruptcies

In Q1 of this year, I showed members of Margin of Safety a screen I run that showed only about a dozen shale companies were operating out of cash flow. A recent Rystad study of the 40 largest shale producers show that they had turned cash flow positive as a group by $110 million over capex.

What should be understood is that it’s the performance of a bit more than a dozen companies that drove that positive cash flow. I covered most the companies that turned cash flow positive earlier this year in an article titled the The Dirty Dozen Oil Stocks For 2019 and another discussing Permian players, ripe for M&A activity.

In the short-term, the next year or two, only a dozen or so companies in the shale patches and maybe Total (T) in my opinion among majors are sure survivors of the coming zombie apocalypse coming the next year or two. The rest of the batch, be careful of.

The Bullish Intermediate Term For Oil

So, if oil investment declines after 2020 due to regulations, then the intermediate term for survivors looks good.

Consider, fracked wells have fast decline rates, losing at least a third of production sometime in year 2. A dramatic drop in fracking could be interpreted as a supply disruption. I think that disruption would be short lived however, as Saudi Arabia would return to the “drill, baby, drill” mentality and cap oil prices under $100 per barrel.

Oil Price Scenarios

Companies with lease holds on public lands already are getting to them at a faster rate because they know those are the one most likely to go away. Oil executives with drilling rights on public lands are very likely to drill those in 2020. That is in fact already happening.

If I am an oil exec, I’m also drilling and fracking as many wells as I can afford to, even if I have to cap them short term. I expect that most companies with cash will come in at the very high end of their capital budgets in 2020 or slightly exceed.

That means the price of oil, short of a greater Middle East conflict and disruption, likely does not reach $80 per barrel in 2020 as I had previously thought. There’s huge uncertainty of course.

After 2020 though, I think the price oil rises are likely to rise due to changes in policy, financing tightness, decline rates and requirements by investors to operate within cash flow and return money to shareholders. The death of the oil zombies will make the survivors big winners off of bottom fishing prices.

The Bottom Line On The End Of The Oil Age

Regardless of what you want to believe, the end of the oil age has started. We are no longer in batting practice. We are into the game and working our way through the line-up.

No doubt there will still be trading scores to make. And that’s how to think about oil now as an investor, if you want to play in the oil patch at all. Oil investing is dead, but long live oil trading.

I continue to believe that the Permian players are the best bets. I don’t like companies focused on California, Colorado or Oklahoma. The Bakken will have some legacy winners, but several are on long-term run outs of their businesses and without large dividends are of little interest.

Also, as I said a couple years ago, deep water drillers are doomed, even if oil prices surge. Bankruptcies and the collapse in projects has proven that out and there is no return. Exxon will learn that in Guyana soon (more on that in coming weeks).

Some of the oil companies will move into the next era of low carbon energy, making them highly attractive on share price crashes. Incorporating carbon control technology and alternative energy is the next logical step for long-term focused companies. I will cover these in coming articles.

Contact Kirk Spano by direct message to receive your first year with Margin of Safety Investing for half price – only $249.50. Find out how our team can help you beat the markets in up and down cycles. Our approach could prove very valuable in a slowing economy with flat earnings and international risk rising.

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141 Comments on "The Peak Oil Plateau Is Close"

  1. Richard Guenette on Sat, 23rd Nov 2019 6:56 pm 

    Turn all discarded plastics back into oil. If we can send a human being into space, then we can use current technology to break plastic down into fuel (to fuel our fragile economy). Remove the components of plastic and turn it into liquid fuel.

  2. Cloggie on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 3:47 am 

    “Demand Destruction For Oil Is Closer Than You Think”

    The real reason that the oil plateau is near.

    I’m betting on peak oil 2025.

    Note, this is not the peak oil Richard Heinberg and othjers were dreaming about, namely sealing “the fate of industrial societies”.

    Peak oil will bury two (Anglo) centuries of fossil fuel exploitation. Solar panels, wind turbines, solar collectors, hydrogen, seasonal storage, rigid conservation, solar cars, car-sharing via autonomous on-demand driving, are next.

    Nothing to despair about.

    The standard 5-seater sedan should be replaced by something like this, the e-carver for normal all-weather commuting, in Holland (and probably elsewhere) 34 km/day on average.

    Price 8,000 euro. Range 100 km, top speed is 45 kmh, but this has been limited on purpose, not to have to register as a car (yet), can easily be increased to 80 kmh. Battery 3.8 kWh, in other words you can drive 25 km on a single 10-20 cent kWh. Too cheap to meter. 200 working days per year, that’s 6800 commuting km, that is 272 kWh. That can be produced with a SINGLE SOLAR PANEL in grey, rainy Holland.

    A family can own such a 1-2 person vehicle and for the rest you have to rent an autonomous driving car “from the cloud” via your mobile phone. No need to not drink that glass of wine during your restaurant dinner.

    No more parking problems, no more congestion, no more exhaust fumes, much lower energy footprint. Much lower transport cost.

    Win, win, win.

  3. Cloggie on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 3:52 am 

    The video sucks, here is a slightly better one:

    This is a high-quality video of the original (gasoline) Carver:

    An electric one could be similar and drive 100 kmh.

    Two carvers could occupy a single lane next to each other.

  4. Cloggie on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 3:56 am 

    This is a better e-Carver video:

    Again: 25 km for 10 $ cent or 20 euro cent “fuel” cost, depending on where you live.

  5. Davy on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 5:08 am 

    “Peak oil will bury two (Anglo) centuries of fossil fuel exploitation. Solar panels, wind turbines, solar collectors, hydrogen, seasonal storage, rigid conservation, solar cars, car-sharing via autonomous on-demand driving, are next. Nothing to despair about.”

    Poor cloggo believes consequences can be brushed under the carpet like bad debt of the last financial crisis were. He thinks all our many problems that are a predicament are solved with energy engineering. He calls himself an energy engineer but really he is a writer of fiction for emotional consumption. He simplifies things down so the solutions seem so possible. He cherry picks the best and disregards the worst then massages the mix into a great story anyone could love. He makes the costs low or says they are free. He throws in his white greatness and manifest destiny and walah we have a transcendental golden age ahead. LMFAO

  6. Cloggie on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 6:35 am 

    Poor empire dave, all dressed up for collapse but nowhere to go. He is hiding out in the Ozarks with his goats, believing that peak oil is real or even significant and will happen “soon”, honest! Empire dave is like these Japanese soldiers, holding out in the jungle of South-East Asia in the seventies, in the belief that WW2 was still raging.

    We’re almost in 2020 and according to the resident 2011 collapsniks we should already be deep into industrial collapse.


    The truth is less prosaic. Fossil fuel will be replaced by renewable energy without much fanfare, let alone “millions killed”.

    I admit this opinion is not as “scenic” as the grandiose collapse panorama the boards regulars have been painting for a decade now, but at least it will be much closer to the truth.

  7. Cloggie on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 6:44 am 

    Sanitized the info above in a Carver post:

  8. I AM THE MOB on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 6:51 am 

    Don’t you love how CLogg has so much blind confidence in his beliefs based on amateur youtube videos, dailymail, and info wars. Oh and don’t forget a diary that was found that disproves the holocaust entirely. I bet he thinks the bible is a historical document as well.

    Time to grow up buddy. Stop being a loser NEET. Nobody is every going to listen to anything you say. Especially when they see how often you are on here.


  9. I AM THE MOB on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 6:54 am 

    Two Russian spies were arrested in Catalonia carrying a grenade

    Russia is spreading terror now. They are trying to destabilize the world.

  10. Cloggie on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 7:06 am 

    “Two Russian spies were arrested in Catalonia carrying a grenade”

    There is no MSM referring to this article, only this shabby obscure Turkish site. Suspicious to say the least.

    I know how much you love to sick western whitey into war against Russian whitey. That’s all you do for a living, if your kind doesn’t rape white girls:×2-700×467.jpg

    Your kind needs a severe haircut and rest assured it is underway. Don’t believe me, ask Sascha Baron Cohen.LOL

  11. Cloggie on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 7:07 am 

    “Nobody is every going to listen to anything you say.”

    I have you around to prove the contrary.

  12. Cloggie on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 7:12 am 

    Terbaksis probably read the grenade story in the stars:

    A fokking horoscope!

    That’s the kind of garbage our mobsters hangs out with in his transparent attempt to instigate war.


  13. Davy on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 7:28 am 

    “Poor empire dave, all dressed up for collapse but nowhere to go. He is hiding out in the Ozarks with his goats”
    Geeze, on the one hand you extremist say I am a hick hiding in the hills with goats and the other I am the jet setter with the Italian wife. I don’t think you binary extremist caught in agenda traps know what to think of me so you just attack me however. LOL.

    “believing that peak oil is real or even significant and will happen “soon”, honest!”
    My god, you blather on and on about the energy transition at hand and act like that is not primarily because of peak oil and by extension the carbon trap, and path dependencies of globalism. Mind you I am not talking Huberts PO. I am talking the evolved view of Peak Oil with its many different fascist of effects. Peak oil is solidly in charge just not the immediate danger peakers fail miserably on. Cloggo, you are a techno optimist who lives and breaths fantasy. Each new so-called break through has you more drug addicted then the last. You cannot even keep your agenda straight anymore you are so lost in the running from the truth of a collapse process. You go in one direction then swing to another like a windsock on a blustery day

    “Empire dave is like these Japanese soldiers, holding out in the jungle of South-East Asia in the seventies, in the belief that WW2 was still raging. We’re almost in 2020 and according to the resident 2011 collapsniks we should already be deep into industrial collapse.”
    Old news cloggo, peakers are licking their wounds but not those who now see the multiple predicaments of human civilization as a force of a collapse process beyond solutions. We are firmly caught in a carbon trap along with the behavioral trap of path dependencies. No amount of your stupid finely prepared cloggo word press junk can eliminate that reality. You are here so often because your reality is such a failure. You are here daily like the Dutch boy putting his finger in the dyke.

    “The truth is less prosaic. Fossil fuel will be replaced by renewable energy without much fanfare, let alone “millions killed”.”
    Any time someone says “will” then I immediately disregard their message. You have no friggin clue what is coming down the road cloggo. It most certainly is not your agenda realized.

    “I admit this opinion is not as “scenic” as the grandiose collapse panorama the boards regulars have been painting for a decade now, but at least it will be much closer to the truth.”
    LMFAO, the cloggo acts like he is closer to the truth!!!!

  14. Cloggie on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 7:40 am

    “Scrap Trident and I will put you in Number 10: Nicola Sturgeon confirms getting rid of UK’s nuclear weapons would be a red line for the SNP during talks to prop up a minority Labour government led by Jeremy Corbyn”

    Excellent idea Nicola! Leave those toys to the PBM guys.

  15. Cloggie on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 8:09 am 

    “Geeze, on the one hand you extremist say I am a hick hiding in the hills with goats and the other I am the jet setter with the Italian wife.”

    I never called you a jet-setter, just an Ozark hick with an escape route into European safety.

    “My god, you blather on and on about the energy transition at hand and act like that is not primarily because of peak oil and by extension the carbon trap, and path dependencies of globalism.”

    The EU-renewable energy policy is exclusively tied to climate change worries. The EU recognized earlier than my nothingness that “there is enough to fry us all”.

    “Peak oil is solidly in charge just not the immediate danger peakers fail miserably on.”

    Meaningless sentence, smoke screen. Peak oil is dead, long live peak oil.

    “peakers are licking their wounds but not those who now see the multiple predicaments of human civilization as a force of a collapse process beyond solutions.”

    Another one of those typical empire dave sentences, designed to look intellectual. Word salad devoid of any meaning.

    P.S. could you please insert empty lines between quotes and your comments. Would make your posts much more readable.

  16. Sissyfuss on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 8:42 am 

    Clolapse, collapse is a process already begun, manifested in protests around the globe with most revealing the anger of people who’s standard of living is in a slow motion circling of the drain. And all you’re offering is drain plugs that leaks. The Jet Stream, now unleashed, will not return to its normal pattern for perhaps millions of years. When the harvest cycles start producing a fraction of the bounty they once supplied, be sure to enlighten us on the nutritional value of lithium.

  17. Davy on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 8:57 am 

    Sorry for lying again cloggo. It was me that said I was a hick hiding in the hills with goats and it was me that said I was the jet setter with the Italian wife. I’m so sorry to for always righting stupid shit that isn’t even readable. I need to lurn me about punctualisation and how to right stuff that actually makes sense. I no my wordsalads are real stupid but I can’t help myself and i’m A hypocrite to.

  18. JuanP ID theft on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 9:10 am 

    LOL, all stupid can do is ID theft me relentlessly and to no effect. His effect has long ago dissipated into stupidness. He is triggered so bad he can’t stop. He is a classic case of a mentally ill untreated individual who now looks absurd.
    I mean come on 2 years of this mindless shit?? LMFAO. Hey stupid give us some muzzie trash. double lol.

    This is stupid:
    Davy said Sorry for lying again cloggo. It was me that said…

    Davy said Oops, sorry for losing my widdle temper again y’al…

  19. Davy on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 9:12 am 

    “Another one of those typical empire dave sentences, designed to look intellectual. Word salad devoid of any meaning.”

    I stand by every word of it cloggo and enjoy making you look like the fraud you are. No need for a reply beyond that.

  20. Davy on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 9:21 am 

    To be clear cloggo. I stand by every word in my word salads that are devoid of any meaning. That’s just the kind of guy I am. A dumbass.

  21. JuanP ID theft on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 9:40 am 

    Hi stupid.

    this is stupid:
    Davy said To be clear cloggo. I stand by every word in my wo…

  22. More Davy Stupidity on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 9:49 am 

    this is stupid:

    Hi stupid.

    this is stupid:

  23. Cloggie on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 10:54 am 

    Stop the presses! Multicult isn’t working in China either!

    “Inside China’s concentration camps holding up to three million Muslim prisoners subjected to a regime of modern surveillance and old-fashioned torture – as one survivor recounts how you can be executed for laughing”

    Expect the ADL to withdraw it’s support for multicult. Oh wait…

    Now where IS multicult working, I’m asking you?

    Israel? (Palestinians and Jews, ouch)
    Turkey? (Turks and Kurds, ouch)
    Ukraine? (Russians and Ukrainians, ouch)
    Syria? (Alewites and Sunni Arabs, ouch)
    Iraq? (Shia, Sunni, Kurds, ouch)
    Yugoslavia? (Serbs, Croats, Bosnians, ouch)

    And then there is America (ca. 50 new CW2 links at the bottom)


    People who invented multicult must be the world’s greatest haters and misogynists.

    Now who again invented multicult?

  24. Richard Guenette on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 11:17 am 

    Our leaders should stop pandering to the environmentalists (who are paid to spread doom and gloom). Nobody is going to save the planet. Renewable energy isn’t “clean” energy and it won’t last that long.

  25. I AM THE MOB on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 12:32 pm 


    What about Singapore?

    One of the most prosperous countries in the world.

    Nice try cherry picking. You will always be a loser NEET

  26. Cloggie on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 1:14 pm 

    “ What about Singapore?
    One of the most prosperous countries in the world.”

    Yeah, what about it?
    Singapore has 74% Chinese.
    The second ethnicity is Malay with 13%
    Hence Singapore is a dominant Chinese city state, not a multicult shithole.

    But you do not deny that the multicult societies I mention, are indeed disasters..


  27. Duncan Idaho on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 1:35 pm 

    What about Singapore?

    About the same size as Denmark, which has 12 Nobel prizes–Singapore?
    None, 0, zero
    And don’t speed or chew gum———-

  28. I AM THE MOB on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 4:46 pm 


    “if non-residents were counted, nearly 43% of the total population were foreign born.[338][339]”

    Dumbass. And you I doubt someone who spams info wars and daily mail speaks for the entire worldwide white man.

    If you are so smart why don’t you get a life and stop spamming a meaningless doomer blog?

  29. Richard Guenette on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 4:51 pm 

    No one has to listen to Greta Thunberg! She has no right to tell anyone how to live. It’s up to the person, not Grumpy Greta!

  30. Richard Guenette on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 4:56 pm 

    Fact: Holland, Italy, Turkey, Belgium and Germany have American nukes on THEIR soil because of a “weapons-sharing” program! They’ll probably just sit there and decay.

  31. Richard Guenette on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 4:57 pm 

    The EU is hollow and useless.

  32. JuanPee sock nonsense on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 5:01 pm 

    This is mindless stupid shit from stupid

    Richard Guenette said The EU is hollow and useless.

    Richard Guenette said Fact: Holland, Italy, Turkey, Belgium and Germany…

    Richard Guenette said No one has to listen to Greta Thunberg! She has no…

    Richard Guenette said We are not running out of sand. Look at the Sahara…

    Richard Guenette said Mining here on Earth should continue. Nuclear powe…

    Richard Guenette said There are a lot of untapped oil and gas reserves i…

    Richard Guenette said If the green movement gets its way, our jobs will..

    Richard Guenettre said America would benefit from either a multi-party po…

  33. I AM THE MOB on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 5:08 pm 

    Top US General: It’s “very possible” Iran will attack again

    False flag incoming…

  34. Cloggie on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 5:10 pm 

    “if non-residents were counted, nearly 43% of the total population were foreign born.”

    Most in China.

    What part of “74% Chinese” do you (pretend to) not understand?

    You are Chinese, not because you happen to live in Singapore, but because your ancestors were Chinese for centuries.

    But you are evading the real issue. Why don’t you comment multicult in Palestine, Yugoslavia, Ukraine, Syria, Iraq?

    Because you have no case. You and your tribe are advocating the ruin of their host societies. As always. Nothing has changed since the thirties. Expect the same results.

    “Europe is finished” indeed, namely with being the property of the Tribe. They will need all hands on deck to at least keep the US and perhaps the UK.

  35. Richard Guenette on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 5:21 pm 

    I just shit my pants in pity

  36. I AM THE MOB on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 5:42 pm 


    Europe’s economy is finished. That is what is fueling the far right. Just like during the great depression.

    I have showed you the data a million times.

  37. I AM THE MOB on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 5:43 pm 

    Brexit: stage one in Europe’s slow-burn energy collapse

  38. I AM THE MOB on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 5:51 pm 

    Elon Musk is having a complicated week.

    On Wednesday, a prototype of the Starship rocket—designed by his company SpaceX to eventually fly humans to the Moon and Mars—suffered a large explosion while it was being loaded with super-cooled fuel in Texas.

    State planning is the only way to go with Space. Along with everything else.

    Sorry Clog, looks like we aren’t going to mars. LOL

  39. I AM THE MOB on Sun, 24th Nov 2019 7:32 pm 

    White nationalists are openly operating on Facebook. The company won’t act

  40. Cloggie on Mon, 25th Nov 2019 1:49 am 

    “White nationalists are openly operating on Facebook. The company won’t act”

    Because Trump is in the White House and Facebook is afraid of provoking CW2. It’s too late anyway.

    “State planning is the only way to go with Space. Along with everything else.
    Sorry Clog, looks like we aren’t going to mars. LOL”

    Collecting stones from Mars, that is ESA + NASA, indeed state planned. I’m not against that. The last thing you want is that a big-nosed oligarch organises an inter-planetary trip.

    “Brexit: stage one in Europe’s slow-burn energy collapse”

    For Britain perhaps. We have Russia and Nord-Stream next month. And of course 600,000 km2 of shallow water (larger than France) where we can harvest 3-5 times more wind energy than we will ever need and no NIMBYs around to sabotage the effort.

    “I have showed you the data a million times.”

    All you showed was you wishful projections. Unlike you, we are around for thousands of years and have no plan to go any time soon.

  41. Cloggie on Mon, 25th Nov 2019 1:55 am 

    Land-slide victory for sitting president in Romania:

    Strongly pro-Europe, but also pro-strong external borders and reluctant to follow the loony West immigration and gender idiocy. That’s typical Eastern Europe, the great hope for the rest of Europe.

  42. Cloggie on Mon, 25th Nov 2019 2:04 am

    “Romanian centrist president re-elected by a landslide”

  43. Davy on Mon, 25th Nov 2019 3:58 am 

    “Here Is What The Horowitz Report Should Conclude” zero hedge

    “Authored by Larry Johnson via Sic Semper Tyrannis blog, You do not have to wait for the Horowitz report. I can give you a preview of what he should have found if he conducted an honest audit. The following is not my opinion. It is based on the flood of information that has come out over the past two and a half-years surrounding the plot to destroy the Presidency of Donald Trump. When you read these facts it is easy to understand how dishonest and corrupt the FBI were in presenting a FISA application to spy on Carter Page… The American people must wake up and understand how dishonest and stupid the FBI was in writing and submitting this baseless application to the FISA court. And we are not talking about low level flunkies who changed an email. Jim Comey signed off on these lies. Andrew McCabe signed off on this lies. I will reiterate, if Inspector General Horowitz fails to highlight these clear and pervasive lies then it will be up to Attorney General Barr and Prosecutor John Durham to set things right.”

  44. Davy on Mon, 25th Nov 2019 4:07 am 

    “Chinese Media Stunner: China Will Be The Next Country To Cut Rates To Zero” zero hedge

    “One week ago, we showed in one chart why the global economic recovery that so many expect is just a few months away, won’t happen: as the chart below shows, China’s credit intensity since 1994 has exploded. This means that before the Global Financial Crisis, China needed on average one unit of credit to create one unit of GDP. Since 2008, 2½ units of credit are required to create one unit of GDP. In other words, that China needs much more credit than 10 years ago to have the exact same amount of GDP. Injecting more credit in the economy is not the miracle solution it used to be, and the disadvantages of credit push tend to surpass the advantages. This explosion in China’s credit intensity in the past decade has directly fueled China’s debt engine, the same debt engine that single-handedly pulled the world out of a global depression in 2008/2009. Alas, this will not happen again: China’s public and household debts are at their highest historical levels, respectively at 51% of GDP and 53% of GDP, and the private sector debt service ratio is becoming a burden for many companies, reaching on average 19.7% This records an increase from 13% before the crisis. Overall, China’s debt to GDP is fast approaching an unprecedented 320%!…And while we doubt that the PBOC will be able to cut enough to bring about ZIRP, or NIRP, any time soon especially due to the ongoing hyperinflation in pork prices, if and when those do stabilize the Chinese central bank may well follow in the footsteps of every other developed central bank. In doing so, it will only infuriate Trump who has been kicking and screaming at Jerome Powell, demanding that the Fed do just that…What we find most remarkable about the op-ed is how simply, matter-of-factly and correctly, the author explains away why zero rates are coming: Mounting debts and the financing problems in the real economy will promote China to a zero rate condition Structurally, China’s non-financial corporate debt ratio is too high, and interest rates are too high. Considering that the repayment burden of existing debt has squeezed out the effective demand for new credit, and China is likely to become the next zero interest rate country”

  45. Davy on Mon, 25th Nov 2019 4:16 am 


    “Here Is What The Horowitz Report Should Conclude”

    1. Obstructing Justice

    The trail of evidence starts with Trump’s attempt to get James Comey, the FBI director responsible for overseeing the investigation into Trump’s relationship with Russia during the 2016 election, to drop an investigation into National Security Advisor Michael Flynn.
    When Comey refused, Trump fired him.
    Trump made two more attempts at stopping the investigation by trying (unsuccessfully) to fire Robert Mueller, Comey’s predecessor. Then, Trump ordered White House Counsel Don McGahn to create a false record indicating that no attempts took place – McGahn refused.
    Trump has repeatedly attempted to intimidate or influence witnesses in proceedings against him.
    In all, Robert Mueller’s investigation revealed multiple instances where there was “very substantial” evidence that Trump had committed obstruction of justice.
    Read more about Donald Trump’s obstruction here.

    2. Profiting from the Presidency

    The Constitution’s Foreign Emoluments Clause prohibits the president from accepting personal benefits from any foreign government or official.
    Trump has retained his ownership interests in his family business while he is in office.
    Thus, every time a foreign official stays at a Trump hotel, or a foreign government approves a new Trump Organization project, or grants a trademark, Trump is in violation of the Constitution.
    Trump has repeatedly pushed his properties as avenues to secure his favor, and multiple foreign officials have stayed at his properties while lobbying his administration.
    Saudi officials and an Iraqi Sheik stayed at his hotel when lobbying for their interests.
    China approved multiple trademarks for his family’s brands while negotiating trade policies.
    Trump promoted his club in Doral Florida for the 2020 G-7 Conference, and then the White House announced the multi-million dollar contract was awarded to Trump’s own resort after Trump’s suggestion. Ultimately, this contract was canceled despite his attempts to abuse his position.
    And every time he goes to golf at a Trump property, he funnels taxpayer money into his family business—violating the Domestic Emoluments Clause.
    To date, Trump has spent over $100 million taxpayer dollars to golf and vacation at his own properties.

    3. Soliciting Foreign Interference in US Elections

    Federal law prohibits campaigns from soliciting or accepting anything of value from a foreign national.


    Donald Trump publicly called on Russia to find Hillary Clinton’s “missing” emails on July 27, 2016. Five hours later, Russian hackers attacked Clinton’s personal office for the first time.
    In the middle of the 2016 election, Trump’s son was invited to meet with a Russian national regarding “information that would incriminate Hillary and…would be very useful to” Donald Trump. Donald Trump Jr. was told it was “part of Russia and its government’s support for Mr. Trump.” Trump Jr., Jared Kushner, and Campaign Chairman Paul Manafort took the meeting.
    Paul Manafort and Rick Gates met with Konstantin Kilimnik, likely a Russian spy, multiple times in the summer of 2016 to provide him with internal campaign polling data detailing the Trump campaign’s midwestern strategy.


    Trump used U.S. military aid to pressure Ukraine to interfere in the 2020 elections and must be impeached because no one is above the law.
    He illegally withheld $400 million dollars of military aid to Ukraine and in a call with the President of Ukraine, asked them to “do us a favor” by investigating Joe Biden’s family and a debunked conspiracy theory (that has been pushed by Russian intelligence) alledging Ukraine hacked the DNC’s computer servers.
    White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney admitted in a press conference that Trump had withheld military aid to Ukraine to pressure them to investigate his rivals for the 2020 election. He told the public to “Get Over it” as the White House does this “All the time”. Other State Department officials made it clear to the Ukrainian government that the aide would not be released unless the Ukrainians investigated the Biden family for the purpose of helping Trump win re-election.
    Trump told the press that, in addition to Ukraine, China should investigate the Bidens specifically and said “If they [China] do what we want, we have tremendous power” in ongoing trade negotiations.
    After this occurred, a Trump aide claimed that the Chinese had, in fact, given him information on Hunter Biden’s business dealings in the country.
    Multiple witnesses confirmed in the public impeachment hearings before the House Intelligence Committee that Trump was attempting to bribe and extort Ukraine into helping his reelection.

    4. Advocating Political & Police Violence

    When Trump gave cover to the neo-Nazis who rioted in Charlottesville and murdered a protester, he violated his obligation to protect the citizenry against domestic violence.
    When Trump encouraged police officers to rough up people they have under arrest, he violated his obligation to oversee faithful execution of the laws.
    Trump and his rhetoric have been cited in numerous criminal proceedings as being the inspiration and justification for political violence.
    When faced with impeachment in the House, Trump has alluded to his supporters engaging in insurrection to keep him in power – a rallying cry readily picked up by his supporters.

    5. Abuse of Power

    President Trump threatened to withhold aid from Ukraine if its Prime Minister did not investigate former Vice President Joe Biden and his son. Using taxpayer dollars to manipulate an important ally against Russia and attack a political rival is a clear abuse of presidential power.
    Furthermore, this administration tried to conceal the whistleblower complaint that brought this corruption to light and label the civil servant who filed it as partisan.
    In addition, Trump’s decision to pardon Joe Arpaio, who was convicted for contempt of court after ignoring a court order that he stop detaining and searching people based on the color of their skin, amounted to an abuse of the pardon power that revealed his indifference to individual rights, equal protections, and the separation of powers.
    Pardoning this conviction goes against the Fifth Amendment, which allows the judiciary to issue and enforce injunctions against government officials who flout individual rights.

    6. Engaging in Reckless Conduct

    High-ranking administration officials involved in foreign affairs have signaled that Trump does not have the capacity to make informed decisions in the event of a military crisis.
    Even worse, his actions could spark a needless confrontation stemming from misunderstanding or miscalculation.
    We see this in full effect every time Trump tweets or makes a public statement taunting and threatening the North Korean regime.
    The president may be the “Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States,” but that does not give him the right to behave in reckless or wanton ways that put millions of lives at risk.
    If he is unfit to perform his duties as Commander in Chief, he cannot be allowed to remain in the position.

    7. Persecuting Political Opponents

    President Trump has repeatedly pressured the Department of Justice and the FBI to investigate and prosecute political adversaries like Hillary Clinton; now, the DOJ has reopened the Clinton email investigation in an attempt to scandalize his opponents.
    This is not based in concerns with national security, law enforcement, or any other function of his office—it is an attempted power play, plain and simple.
    Trump also pressured the Ukrainian government to investigate Joe Biden, his potential opponent in the general election, by leveraging US military aide to help his reelection prospects.
    Trump and Attorney General Barr have asked foreign intelligence agencies to assist in an investigation to discredit Robert Mueller, hoping to undermine the credibility of the damning Mueller Report.
    There’s no question that these actions constitute an outrageous and inappropriate abuse of executive branch powers and serve as clear grounds for impeachment.
    8. Attacking the Free Press

    President Trump has repeatedly attacked the concept of an independent press.
    He’s called critical coverage “fake news” and journalists “the enemy of the American people,” made threats to change libel laws and revoke licenses, and his battles with CNN led him to try to interfere in the AT&T/Time Warner merger.
    His Administration has repeatedly and baselessly revoked press credentials for critical coverage.
    He has dismissed the murder of a critical journalist, citing the economic partnership the US has with the offending nation.
    This demonstrates his unwillingness to respect and uphold the Constitution, and disdain for the crucial foundations to our free society.
    Thanks to Free Speech for People, whose white paper, ‘The Legal Case for a Congressional Investigation on Whether to Impeach President Donald J. Trump,’ served as the basis for this list.

    9. Violating Immigrants’ Right to Due Process

    Enforcing its new “zero tolerance” policy, the Trump administration separated as many as 3,000 immigrant children from their parents at the southern border. This policy was meant to deter families from attempting to cross the border.
    The children and their families have been held in internment camps and cages with what lawyers call “inhumane conditions.”
    Due to negligence, the Trump administration has no plan to reunite all children with their families, even deporting some parents while their children remain detained.
    Currently, the Trump administration is in court trying to enforce a policy allowing the administration to detain migrants indefinitely in violation of their constitutional rights.
    Thanks to Free Speech for People, ‘New ground for impeachment hearings: cruel and unconstitutional imprisonment of children and their families,’ served as content for this impeachable offense.

    10. Violating Campaign Finance Laws

    Donald Trump knew disclosure of his extramarital affairs with Stephanie Clifford (A.K.A. Stormy Daniels) and Karen McDougal could hurt his chances at winning the 2016 election.
    At the direction of Trump, Michael Cohen and American Media, Inc. (AMI), the publisher of the National Enquirer bought the rights to the women’s stories and forced them to sign Non-Disclosure Agreements to prevent them from going public for the purpose of protecting his campaign.
    Cohen admitted to making illegal, hush-money payments to hide Trump’s affairs in the fall of 2016, just weeks before the election.
    Federal prosecutors, and Trump’s co-conspirators Cohen and AMI, all say that Cohen made the payments at Trump’s direction, “in concert with the campaign,” and with the intention of helping Trump win.
    Trump made illegal reimbursements to Michael Cohen for this crime while President, discussing the illegal scheme while in the Oval Office.
    Trump is an unindicted co-conspirator because he directed Cohen to “cause an unlawful corporate contribution” and an “excessive campaign contribution” by paying the two women hush money with the intent to influence the election.

  46. makati1 on Mon, 25th Nov 2019 4:24 am 

    Davy, you do realize that ZH is a Sinophobe site? 99% of posted China articles are warped to accommodate the USMSM China bashing propaganda.

    China will still be an active country long after the US disappears. 5,000+ years of experience and a system of choosing leaders that makes the US system look like a circus sideshow of freaks and mongoloid idiots.

    Ah, but you cannot contemplate a world where the US is not the world bully, just as you cannot accept that you are a bully who is now being laughed at.

  47. Davy on Mon, 25th Nov 2019 4:29 am 

    “Economic Recovery Narrative Doomed: Fathom’s China Momentum Indicator Signals More Downside Ahead” zero hedge

    “In the last 30 days, we’ve noted that China’s credit growth rapidly decelerated to the weakest pace since at least 2017 as a continued collapse in shadow banking, weak corporate demand for credit and seasonal effects all signaled that a massive rebound in China’s economy, nevertheless the global economy, in early 2020 is questionable. Though investors around the world have bought stocks in preparation for a massive 2016-style rebound in the global economy. We’ve discussed that because of China’s credit impulse has rolled over, the probabilities of a massive rebound in China’s economy or even the rest of the world remains low — though it’s possible the global economy could stabilize, it’s just the idea that a huge rebound is unlikely…China is undoubtedly at “crossroads,” as Fathom suggests, because of its inability to stoke economic growth via credit, this means China isn’t going to bail out the world again like it did in 2008 and 2015/16. Global stocks are expecting China CMI 2.0 to soar in the coming months, but if that doesn’t happen, global stocks are likely to see a significant correction in the months ahead. And with China’s economic activity decelerating, China’s CSI 300 Index could retest around the 3,000 level. Commodities remain depressed because China’s economic activity continues to decelerate. Without China – which has created 60% of all new global debt over the past decade – there can be no global recovery. In other words, enjoy the current growth delusion while it lasts… some time into Q2 2020 when the Fed’s NOT QE will fade to nothing.”

  48. Davy on Mon, 25th Nov 2019 4:29 am 

    I highlight the above two articles to offer a conclusion we may be near the inflection point of stranded economic efforts of stimulation that have gone on now for a decade. We have talked about these dangerous efforts with unknown consequences for years on this forum. They have occurred first by the Fed then EU and finally the greatest blowout in the history of man in China. It is all ending now. There is talk of negative rates and MMT policies but these are more with apprehension because the global economy has stalled. Going forward into the new decade I am now personally convinced an accelerated decline process will dominate the news. There will be all kinds of corrections and with them broad based conflict of people lied to and deceived. This is even though people should have seen it coming. These pissed off people will do what people do and that is finger point and play the blame game. The techno forces of change with energy will likewise stall mainly because economic decline means less energy is needed and that means less money to invest in new capacity. It is now a downward spiral of decay and decline. Peak oil will be back with demand destruction driving peak demand.

    Expect the key elements of destructive change to revolve around economic abandonment, dysfunctional networks, and irrational policy that will propagate without effective corrective policy from central banks and governments. There will still be growth and likely optimism here and there because you know, the world is delusional with techno optimism but reality will now continually signal decline where it is allowed. We are there. It took a decade but it finally got here. It is unknown how this will play out because these are uncharted waters. The timeframe is unknown because this could end tomorrow with a bifurcating status quo or it could wind down for years. I would error on the short term but I have been fooled in the past. Who knows but it definitely is a new frontier that is dark and dangerous.

  49. Davy on Mon, 25th Nov 2019 4:34 am 

    poor makato, the news has turned sour for his anti-American message with Asia is great overtones. He is one failed message after another and now all he can do is whine Sinophobe this and Sinophobe that. He has turned away from one of his favorite sites Zero Hedge that is firmly anti-American because now it is exposing his decaying Asia. He is increasing turning to nutter sites like global research. Makato is now pissed off and not sure why. I know why.

    Reality is a bitch isn’t it makato. Your 2×4 is planted in your head now.

  50. JuanP ID theft on Mon, 25th Nov 2019 4:43 am 

    Stupid is now frustrated and livid with anger at how his extremist liberal personality has now become a complete failure. This extremist personality is just one of his multiple personalities. He is being crushed by reality because that is what reality does.

    This is stupid:

    BTW, stupid where is your reference and it is a bit long isn’t it??

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