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The decade that blew up energy predictions

Production

America’s energy sources, like booming oil and crumbling coal, have defied projections and historical precedents over the last decade.

Why it matters: It shows how change can happen rapidly and unexpectedly, even in an industry known to move gradually and predictably. With a new decade upon us, let’s look back at the last one’s biggest, most surprising energy changes.

Where it stands: The following five charts show the U.S. Energy Information Administration projections for the future from a decade ago, along with current EIA data to compare those projections with what actually has happened.

Driving the news: The stark differences are driven by myriad factors not included in the decade-old projections, including policy changes and ever-more efficient technology extracting oil and gas.

Oil production and prices

In 2010, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected that in 2019, the U.S. would be producing about six million barrels of oil a day. The reality? We’re now producing 12 million barrels of oil a day.

  • Meanwhile, EIA projected oil prices would be more than $100 a barrel. They’re currently hovering around $60 a barrel.

What’s happening: A pair of extraction methods — horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing — have unlocked far more oil and gas than experts had predicted, and companies have gotten hyper-efficient extracting more oil from each well.

EIA actual and projected data; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Oil imports

EIA had projected in 2010 that the U.S. would be importing a net eight million barrels of petroleum by now, which includes crude oil and petroleum products like gasoline. In September, the U.S. actually exported a net 89,000 barrels of petroleum.

Flashback: A driving reason behind this is Congress lifting the 40-year-old ban on crude oil exports in 2015, a policy change few thought possible a decade ago.

EIA actual and projected data; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Natural gas production

In 2010, EIA projected that the U.S. would be producing about 20 trillion cubic feet of natural gas by now. In 2018, the last full year of annual data, we produced more than 30 trillion.

What’s happening: Horizontal drilling and fracking are the key drivers here too — though oil is typically more valuable than gas, so the increase has been greater with oil than gas.

EIA actual and projected data; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Electricity

The EIA had projected that coal electricity would remain dominant in the U.S. and natural gas would remain relatively stable — even drop slightly in its share of power supply. The opposite is happening. Coal-fired power is plummeting and natural gas has risen significantly.

Renewables tracked a bit higher than where projections were a decade ago. This is due to the low base on which wind and solar started from, the sporadic nature of federal tax subsidies for these industries and continued support among states.

What happened: Stringent environmental regulations issued during the Obama administration, combined with the surprisingly plentiful supplies of cleaner-burning natural gas, drove these unexpected changes with coal and gas.

Congress remains in an on-again-off-again relationship with renewable-energy subsidies, but many states are ramping up even more clean-energy goals and wind and solar costs continue to drop. So I expect wind and solar to keep growing, which goes against EIA’s 2010 projections.

EIA actual and projected data; Note: Rooftop solar was included in the renewables data starting in 2014; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Greenhouse gas emissions

EIA had projected in 2010 that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions would continue rising, albeit at a slower pace. In fact, they dropped.

What happened: The same one-two punch that drove natural gas to dominate over coal in the electricity mix has driven this change. More recently, the growth in wind and solar, which don’t produce emissions, is accelerating this trend.

Yes, but: Emissions have ticked back up, however, due to a growing economy and the fact that natural gas, although it emits half the CO2 as coal, is still a fossil fuel. It can also emit methane, which is a potent greenhouse gas. EIA does project emissions to decline slightly in the coming years.

EIA actual and projected data; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

What we’re watching: What we all might get wrong in the next decade.

AXIOS



94 Comments on "The decade that blew up energy predictions"

  1. The Board on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 2:13 pm 

    All the JuanP, I AM THE MOB, REAL Green, and Davy comments originate from the same IP address.

    Please, do not feed the Davy troll.

  2. fwsmj on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 2:37 pm 

    The Board on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 2:13 pm
    Supertard please if you’re a muzzie then report to nearest muzzie anti rape machine immediately

  3. Endless Stupid from JuanP on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 2:40 pm 

    Stupid is being a jerk. Just ignore him and maybe someday he will just disappear like a bad smell.

    This is from stupid:
    The Board said All the JuanP, I AM THE MOB, REAL Green, and Davy…

  4. JuanP is stupid on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 2:42 pm 

    superturd tell your master he is a jerk! lol

    This is from stupid:
    fwsmj said The Board on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 2:13 pm Supertard…

  5. The Board on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 3:15 pm 

    ‘Endless Stupid from JuanP’ and ‘JuanP is stupid’ both originate from the same IP as the Davy troll.

    Please, do not feed the troll.

  6. Sissyfuss on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 3:21 pm 

    The holiday season really has the socks blowing in the wind at PeakOil.com. Too much spiked punch perhaps.

  7. full woke supremacist muzzies jerk low English on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 3:28 pm 

    Sissyfuss on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 3:21 pm
    Supertard peace be upon you
    Muzzies occupy college Indonesia is taught
    “Kufar greeting has all ill will attached so you say wassa alykum (same sh*t back at you)”
    If muzzies infestations happen it is due to muzzies hivemind

  8. JuanP is stupid on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 4:05 pm 

    Stupid has no life so he trolls PO dot com. What a low life

    This is from stupid:
    full woke supremacist muzzies jerk low English said Sissyfuss on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 3:21 pm Supertard…

    Sissyfuss said The holiday season really has the socks blowing in…

    The Board said ‘Endless Stupid from JuanP’ and ‘JuanP is stupid’…

  9. makati1 on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 4:16 pm 

    Sissyfuss, being Amerikans, it is likely something illegal from Mexico. The site has been ruined by the bullshit started by Davy and continued by the others.

    Davy’s arrogance, immaturity and deeply washed two brain cells, are also typical America today. Disney’s “Amerikan Dream” is being turned into Dante’s Hell by the very citizens who have to live there.

    The “exceptional/indispensable” country is going down. Too bad it is taking so long. I suspect that 2020 is going to speed up the process. It needs to be isolated and it’s military driven back to the 50 states soon.

  10. Davy on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 4:26 pm 

    makato, your two boys are the trolls, JuanP and Anonymouse. You yourself are an idiot old man who is increasingly senile and situationally unaware. In other words you are a joke just like you stupid friends. You and your shrunk group of extremist low IQ individuals are almost totally discredited. It is wonderful you are rarely here anymore and when you are you say the same thing over and over like very old people do.

  11. makati1 on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 5:13 pm 

    Once again Davy, you prove our assertion that you are nothing but an arrogant, delusional, uneducated, immature bully. No one gives a damn what you think. YOU started this many years ago and it is finally destroying the site.

    But then, Amerikans are good at destruction because they are not able to do anything else. I’m watching the US collapse and die. 2020 is going to speed up the process. It should be a great year for those of us outside the Amerikan police state. Pass the popcorn.

  12. Davy on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 5:24 pm 

    “Once again Davy, you prove our assertion that you are nothing but an arrogant, delusional, uneducated, immature bully. No one gives a damn what you think. YOU started this many years ago and it is finally destroying the site.”
    Stupid, I am not going to repeat my last comment but you can tag that on to this one. Remember what I said about your jabbering redundancy?? LMFAO. Do you have a problem with your lower jaw moving uncontrollably, stupid??

    “But then, Amerikans are good at destruction because they are not able to do anything else. I’m watching the US collapse and die. 2020 is going to speed up the process. It should be a great year for those of us outside the Amerikan police state. Pass the popcorn.”
    My God, there goes that old man jabbering again. You are probably drooling too.

  13. shortonoil on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 5:30 pm 

    “But then, Amerikans are good at destruction because they are not able to do anything else. I’m watching the US collapse and die.”

    May you live so long; or not!

  14. I AM THE MOB on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 5:39 pm 

    Hey everyone, is anyone else having troubles getting their $oros payments this month?

    I keep checking my account and they haven’t posted yet. I am getting really nervous because I have been shilling for open borders during the holidays and haven’t seen a dime yet. If I don’t see some money soon I am about to hang up my Antifa mask.

  15. I AM THE MOB on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 5:44 pm 

    Eurozone reform deadlock reflects deep malaise over integration: The stalemate is symptomatic of a deeper malaise in European integration. Whether it be migration policies, attitudes to Russia or the size and focus of the EU’s 2021-27 budget, the Europeans are divided.

    https://www.ft.com/content/8ffa04c6-1815-11ea-8d73-6303645ac406

    It should be easy peasy to start another European civil war like WW2.

  16. Mohammadtheoilman on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 6:08 pm 

    God willing the will burn and the goats will still be warm!!

  17. Mohammadtheoilman on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 6:10 pm 

    *oil will burn and the goats will keep me warm at night!
    Inshallah!

  18. JuanP is stupid on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 6:12 pm 

    Stupid has a new mindless sock.

    This is from stupid:
    Mohammad the oilman said God willing the will burn and the goats will still…

  19. JuanP is stupid on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 6:13 pm 

    JuanP is a jerk

  20. JuanP on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 6:13 pm 

    Ask me about my hernia

  21. I AM THE MOB on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 7:49 pm 

    Germans think Trump is more dangerous to world peace than Kim Jong Un and Putin: survey

    https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/475998-germans-think-trump-is-more-dangerous-to-world-peace-than-kim

  22. I AM THE MOB on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 8:39 pm 

    No, ask me about my anal leakage. I have nothing to talk about really, might as well talk about my ass drip.

  23. Cloggie on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 10:06 pm 

    “It should be easy peasy to start another European civil war like WW2.”

    This sounds like the ravings of a sadistic criminal lunatic, but this is how the US deep state really thinks. And the Brexiteers.

    How did Voltaire put it once?

    “I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if these people (jews) would not some day become deadly to the human race”

    https://www.nytimes.com/1990/09/30/books/l-voltaire-and-the-jews-590990.html

    Thank God Russia and China exist and have become too strong, while the US is descending into third world impotence and conflict and dragging the English with them into the abyss.

    And China and Russia will become stronger until they are in a position to liberate Europe from the nightmare of multicultural self-destruction.

    This graph says it all:

    https://deepresource.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/fall-empires2.jpg

    In 1915, the US overtook the British empire and after 1933 could begin to plot for the destruction of the European world, incl. the UK.

    The difference with now is that the rise of China goes much quicker than that of the US in the run-up to WW2. It is going to be some firework, there in the South China Sea and feel sorry for these poor deplorables, negroes and spics on these proud, but very sinkable carrier bath-tubes with a huge banner on it, saying: “hit me here with your super-sonic missiles”. It is going to be a long swim home.

  24. Cloggie on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 10:12 pm 

    “Germans think Trump is more dangerous to world peace than Kim Jong Un and Putin: survey”

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2019/02/09/germans-prefer-eurasia-over-america/

    Macron has long his agreement in place with Russia and China of how the world should look like after empire and the upcoming WW3. He called NATO “brain-dead”, received Putin with all egards and has a Chinese invitation for an alliance in his pocket.

    What the US, UK and USSR did to Europe, can the EU, Russia, China, muslims and US white nationalists do to US-UK.

  25. Davy on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 11:57 pm 

    LOL at the cloggo natzi.

    Go Trump!

  26. JuanP is stupid on Fri, 27th Dec 2019 2:56 am 

    nightly stupid

    This is from stupid:
    Davy said LOL at the cloggo natzi. Go Trump!

    Davy said That’s why we made REAL Green are PR side. He’s RE…

    REAL Green said Not just smart Davy. But REAL smart. BTW. Y’all ne…

    Davy said Speeder. We are JuanP and JuanP is us. It’s all a…

    full woke supremacist muzzies jerk low English said The Board on Thu, 26th Dec 2019 9:23 pm Please ev…

    The Board said Please everyone. The troll thrives on conflict. Do…

  27. Davy on Fri, 27th Dec 2019 3:07 am 

    “Chinese Ambassador Threatens EU With “Disastrous” Consequences If It Launches Curbs Against Chinese Companies”
    https://tinyurl.com/swrtn29 zero hedge

    “The envoy’s remarks highlight the growing tensions between China and Europe as the EU makes what critics see as “a belated effort to respond to Beijing’s strategic ambitions, nationalistic trade policies and behavior to western enterprises” according to the FT. EU companies and governments have long complained that China greatly restricts access to its own market and heavily favors domestic businesses, while demanding full access to foreign markets. EU countries are expected in January to publish final recommendations for tougher security checks on 5G equipment companies, where China’s Huawei is a world leader and highly active in Europe. The bloc is also looking at tighter procurement rules and stricter screening of foreign investments, including of businesses that use government backing to gain an advantage when acquiring European rivals.”

  28. Cloggie on Fri, 27th Dec 2019 3:15 am 

    There you go:

    https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/brexit-david-sassoli-erinnert-grossbritannien-daran-was-es-durch-den-eu-austritt-verliert-a-1302836.html

    The Italian president of the EU-parliament insists that Britain shouldn’t be given any presents after Brexit.

    Expect the EU to quietly sabotage the trade negotiations and let walk BoJo into his own deadline-31-12-2020-knife and for the EU to win the blame game. They are going to use the UK to set an example of what happens if you leave the EU. And the worse the conditions in the UK after Brexit, the greater the temptation for Scotland and Northern Ireland to leave the UK and come back.

    And then there is London:

    https://www.eurocanadian.ca/2016/11/multicultural-separatism-will-london-leave-england.html

  29. Cloggie on Fri, 27th Dec 2019 3:21 am 

    “Chinese Ambassador Threatens EU With “Disastrous” Consequences If It Launches Curbs Against Chinese Companies”

    https://tinyurl.com/swrtn29 zero hedge

    No serious MSM is reporting this.

    Here is something an MSM DOES report:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-military-russia-china/russia-china-iran-start-joint-naval-drills-in-indian-ocean-idUSKBN1YV0IB

    “Russia, China, Iran start joint naval drills in Indian Ocean”

  30. Davy on Fri, 27th Dec 2019 3:46 am 

    “No serious MSM is reporting this.”

    of course not cloggo, lol. MSM reports fake news or propaganda. This is the kind of stuff you cherry pick daily according to your latest story. The story from zero hedge shows the EU is wary of a Chinese tech Trojan horse and it prefers to stay in a balanced orbit between China and the US.

  31. Cloggie on Fri, 27th Dec 2019 4:11 am 

    “of course not cloggo, lol. MSM reports fake news or propaganda.”

    Complete BS. US media would love to point at a rift between Europe and Russia/China and so do you, hence your grasping at straws.

    Give me a Reuters pointer and I believe it.

  32. Davy on Fri, 27th Dec 2019 4:18 am 

    “Complete BS. US media would love to point at a rift between Europe and Russia/China and so do you, hence your grasping at straws.”

    Show me some news that shows the report is false, cloggo. Show me a report that says the ambassador did not say that!! You are so full of shit cloggo. Anytime news hits that cracks your fantasy you deny it like it is unreal.

  33. Cloggie on Fri, 27th Dec 2019 4:19 am 

    The source apparently is FT:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/britain-press-ft-idUSL4N29107E

    Dec 27 (Reuters) – The following are the top stories in the Financial Times. Reuters has not verified these stories and does not vouch for their accuracy.

    Headlines

    – Beijing envoy warns EU against ‘disastrous’ curbs on China companies on.ft.com/363Pz5m

    From the phrasing the Chinese ambassador is warning against the EU imposing disastrous curbs on Chinese companies. He doesn’t say that China will retaliate in a disastrous manner.

    The EU has no intentions on imposing ‘disastrous curbs’ on Chinese companies, the major concern is with Huawei and the potential for massive Chinese spying.

  34. Davy on Fri, 27th Dec 2019 4:32 am 

    “From the phrasing the Chinese ambassador is warning against the EU imposing disastrous curbs on Chinese companies. He doesn’t say that China will retaliate in a disastrous manner.”
    LOL. Cloggo, what do you think they are going to do, hug you guys and say lets not fight?? Big boys do trade battles and even trade wars. You want so bad for your Anglo derangement to be reality that you can’t afford Chinese problems. The biggest threat to the EU industrially is problems with China. Both the EU and China have economies built upon export. The BRI is one big trojan horse into the heart of the EU. You guys are going to run into conflict cloggo. That is just the reality of the situation

    “The EU has no intentions on imposing ‘disastrous curbs’ on Chinese companies, the major concern is with Huawei and the potential for massive Chinese spying.”
    The EU will put curbs on China soon especially with all the investment China is doing in the EU. It is just a matter of time before Chinese nationalism bumps up against euro nationalism.

    Reality and the cloggo don’t mix.

  35. Stupid where are you? on Fri, 27th Dec 2019 4:35 am 

    Where is stupid?

  36. JuanP on Fri, 27th Dec 2019 4:37 am 

    Guys I am really depressed so I am not going to be up to trolling today. I am sad and fetal today.

  37. Cloggie on Fri, 27th Dec 2019 4:51 am 

    German industry upbeat about 2020:

    https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/umfrage-deutsche-industrie-blickt-positiv-auf-2020-a-1302819.html

    No recession in sight.

  38. Davy on Fri, 27th Dec 2019 5:00 am 

    “No recession in sight.”

    You are in a recession now cloggo. The reason it is not talked about as a recession is your leadership and fake news MSM is putting lipstick on a bad situation. You are Anglo Deranged, cloggo so you can’t admit to this bad situation. If you dig deeper honestly the signs are everywhere. The real thing “Bexit” is going to be a real shocker for you cloggo. You have spent 2 years constantly harping this but unfortunately it did not turn out like you had planned. LMFAO.

  39. Cloggie on Fri, 27th Dec 2019 7:34 am 

    “You are in a recession now cloggo.”

    Proof? None whatsoever.

    2010-2020 was a golden decade for most of Europe.

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/12/27/european-golden-decade-2010-2020/

    That golden decade is now slowly coming to an end. Trump and Brexit, trade wars, the rise of China, the consolidation of the EU and Russia applying for membership of the European world, where at the same time America will be a third world country by 2024, bringing the country on the verge of CW2.

    The weakness and disunity of the US will provoke insurrections from Eurasia and ultimatums from China to the US to get lost from the SCS or else. Europe and Russia will grow together. The New Silk Road is going to be the economic backbone of the planet, replacing the Atlantic.

    The empire/Anglosphere/USA/UK will be taken apart in the coming not so golden decade, Down-under will be absorbed by China.

  40. The Board on Fri, 27th Dec 2019 10:28 am 

    We all know how much fun it is Cloggie, but would you mind please not feeding the Davy troll.

  41. The official Board on Fri, 27th Dec 2019 11:14 am 

    Stupid is up.

    Crowd fund ban JuanP. Let’s rid this place of skum.

  42. The REAL Board. on Fri, 27th Dec 2019 1:50 pm 

    Stupid is up.

    Crowd fund ban Davy. Let’s rid this place of skum.

  43. rockman on Mon, 30th Dec 2019 11:46 am 

    Sorry…late to the babbling.

    FYI: first clue that someone making long term energy prediction is full of shit: they are making a long term energy prediction. Regardless if positive or negative. That opinion is based on 40+ years in the oil patch watching one idiot after another bring financial ruin to their company betting big on such a prediction. LOL

  44. JuanP on Mon, 30th Dec 2019 1:39 pm 

    Rock is my hero and mentor

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