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Robert Rapier: America Is Not Yet A Net Crude Oil Exporter

Production

Of all the developments to come out of the shale oil boom in the U.S., the idea that the U.S. could actually achieve energy independence seemed one of the most unlikely.

After all, in late 2005 weekly net imports of crude oil and petroleum products had hit an all-time high above 14 million barrels per day (BPD). This was the result of years of growing U.S. demand and falling U.S. production. U.S. oil dependence had never been higher, and seemed destined to remain that way.

Net imports — which represent the difference between the crude oil and petroleum products the U.S. imports and those it exports — continued to bounce around the 13 million BPD mark through 2007.

Even as U.S. crude oil production turned higher, the idea that net imports could fall to zero seemed impossible.

Each year of the shale boom, U.S. net imports of finished products — primarily gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel — declined. From a net import level of about 3 million BPD in 2008, that number fell to zero in 2011. By 2016, the net import level of finished products that had been 3 million BPD in 2008 had turned into a net export level of 3 million BPD.

This was aided by a crude oil export ban dating back to 1975. U.S. crude oil producers had to sell their product to U.S. refiners, who were happy to refine discounted U.S. crude and then export the finished fuel products.

But then in late 2015, President Obama signed into law the Consolidated Appropriations Act. One of the provisions of this law was that it repealed the crude oil export ban. U.S. oil producers could now seek the highest price for their product instead of being limited to selling it within the U.S.

U.S. crude oil exports began to rise soon after, reaching the 3 million BPD mark earlier this year. A year ago, Bloomberg reported that the U.S. had become a net crude oil exporter for the first time in 75 years, but that was inaccurate. I addressed it in an article last December — No, The U.S. Is Not A Net Exporter Of Crude Oil.

The bottom line was that the number Bloomberg reported was actually the sum of crude oil exports and finished products. That number had indeed gone negative, meaning this net import category had become a net export number (at least for one week).

The weekly number dipped into negative territory again a couple of times this year, but in October, the monthly number was negative for the first time. Based on the current trends, the yearly number will change from net imports to net exports within the next two years.

But what is the situation now with respect to crude oil imports? A year ago, in response to the Bloomberg article, I reported that the U.S. was still a net crude oil importer to the tune of about 4 million BPD. A year later, that number has fallen to about 3 million BPD, and sometimes falls even lower.

For all of 2018, the U.S. was still a net importer of crude oil to the tune of 5.7 million BPD. That number had fallen by 1.5 million BPD over the previous two years. Final numbers for 2019 aren’t yet available, but the average for the year so far is 4.0 million BPD.

That’s a remarkable year-over-year decline, but the U.S. is still very much a net importer of crude oil. Even if the current trends continue (particularly the robust growth of shale oil production), it looks unlikely that crude oil imports could turn into exports before about the middle of the next decade.

Forbes



47 Comments on "Robert Rapier: America Is Not Yet A Net Crude Oil Exporter"

  1. Nostradamus on Thu, 5th Dec 2019 6:39 pm 

    By the middle of the next decade, oil production will have peaked, and the world economy will be writhing in agony.

  2. Mark in St. Louis on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 3:22 am 

    Too bad Pres. Trump didn’t make incentives to take the excess soybean production (not sold to China) and convert it into biodiesel. That would have reduced US oil imports another 100k/day barrels or more.

  3. Boat on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 4:31 am 

    The month of Sept the US was net oil independent.

    https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42176

    So much for camel pee and the demise of shale oil. There has always been ample oil and gas resources much to the ire of the fake news for the last decade. How could so many be so wrong for so long. While my days proving idiots wrong on this site are few and far in between, rest assured I take pleasure in one of the few who had it right all along. Let’s not forget the predictions of a crashed world economy. I said that was silly and am still right.
    Someday many decades into the future an electric society will emerge cutting into the FF market. In a decade or so we will see peak oil. That prediction was posted here 5 years ago and still looks good.

  4. Davy on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 4:50 am 

    “Too bad Pres. Trump didn’t make incentives to take the excess soybean production (not sold to China) and convert it into biodiesel. That would have reduced US oil imports another 100k/day barrels or more.”

    That is a short-term problem the longer-term problem of lack of crush capacity likely makes unworkable. I don’t know the background on capacity but I doubt so much soy could be converted quickly to biodiesel. Maybe an increasing crush capacity for soy oil to biodiesel should be created even though it is not net energy positive fuel source. It might be economically better than other subsidy alternatives which are all bad. Longer term food shortages probably will make this issue mute anyway.

  5. Davy on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 4:56 am 

    “There has always been ample oil and gas resources much to the ire of the fake news for the last decade.”

    Boat, you did not prove them to be highly profitable now did you? They are a marginal economic oil resource that requires expensive production and processing. Shale oil and gas has been a game changer at some levels but that does not mean the shale industry is a solid resource of growth.

  6. REAL Green on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 5:13 am 

    “An introduction to the state of energy storage in the U.S.”
    https://tinyurl.com/srgs2b6 yale climate connection

    “Battery storage and microgrids Along with their utility-scale functions, batteries are emerging as key elements in microgrids – small-scale power systems that can supplement or substitute for grid-supplied electricity. The recent spate of hurricanes and wildfires knocking out grid-supplied electricity has caused civic leaders and contingency planners to focus on ways to ensure basic power to schools, community shelters, healthcare facilities, and public safety providers. Military planners are also looking at microgrids as safeguards against the growing specter of cyber-attacks. Creating “energy islands” by pairing battery storage with solar arrays can create a degree of local energy autonomy if grid power is lost. In the aftermath of the fall 2017 Hurricane Maria, the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority has mapped out plans for a network of eight microgrids reliant on solar plus storage that could function independently of the island-wide grid during outages caused by major storms…A sampling of services provided by battery storage. Battery storage offers a variety of services that can reshape utility infrastructure and ease the way toward greater renewable energy reliance. For instance Frequency regulation: Ensuring a constant voltage very close to 60 Hertz is essential to grid stability – a challenge that will become harder as wind and solar power’s contribution to the power supply grows. It’s no surprise that 88% of utility-scale U.S. battery storage is already dedicated to ensuring this stability. Shifting energy to match daily peaks: “Solar after Sunset,” an initiative of Arizona’s biggest utility, Arizona Public Service, will rely on 850 megawatts of new battery storage to ensure that solar-generated power will be available during hours of peak electricity demand, from the late afternoon to early evening. Accelerated closure of coal and gas plants: In the Mountain West, the 2019 Integrated Resource Plan of utility giant PacifiCorp calls for the retirement of 16 coal-fired units by 2030, substituting large-scale battery storage along with multiple gigawatts of new solar and wind power. In Florida, the 409-megawatt Manatee Energy Storage Center will be paired with solar power to allow Florida Power & Light to close two of its older, under-utilized natural gas plants. Deferral of new transmission: In Massachusetts, battery storage will supply at least 10 hours of back-up electricity to three Outer Cape Cod communities often hit with power outages. This project will make it possible to suspend plans for a new transmission line that would have run along 13 miles of Cape Cod National Seashore.”

  7. REAL Green on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 5:15 am 

    Storage is starting to take off as a niche for many utility needs as solar and wind increase their presence in the total grid. This is a great story of increasing the impact of renewables. What is not seen yet is the game changer for storage to allow a 100% renewable energy system. I doubt that will ever happen just as I doubt enough solar and wind devices can be produced and installed. I am promoting behavioral changes as the next frontier. Large areas could be made to accommodate intermittency in a kind of micro grid of use. Industries and communities could learn to adapt to intermittency leveraging wind and solar. Hydrogen is another new avenue for storage and one that will increase the depth of renewable storage strategies.

  8. REAL Green on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 5:19 am 

    “Renewables Can’t Offset Growing Need For Fossil Fuels”
    https://tinyurl.com/sqclp6w oil price

    “Solar and wind power are among the renewable energies forecast to spike in 2020, accounting for two-thirds of the new power generation capacity comings on line, a new report shows. Experts from The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU), forecast energy consumption from non-hydro renewables to rise by 14 percent next year, while oil-generated energy would grow by just 1 percent, even with prices remaining range-bound despite political tensions in the Middle East. “Global energy supply is still a long way from being decarbonized,” says Peter Kiernan, chief energy analyst at the EIU. “The world will still depend mainly on fossil fuels in 2020, with rising use of natural gas and oil more than compensating for a slight decline for coal.” Natural gas will lead growth among the fossil fuels, with a 2.6 percent increase, the report says. Such growth will also put it ahead of hydro power and nuclear energy. Coal consumption, in turn, is expected to edge down slightly.”

  9. REAL Green on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 5:29 am 

    “World food prices surge in November, lifted by meat, vegetable oils: U.N. FAO”
    https://tinyurl.com/tfvc2l8 reuters

    “The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) food price index, which measures monthly changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat and sugar hit a 26-month high in November, averaging 177.2 points, up 2.7% on the previous month and up 9.5% year-on-year. FAO also predicted that cereal production would reach an all-time high of 2.714 billion tonnes in 2019, up 0.4% from its last forecast. The cereal price index fell 1.2% to 162.4 points, with large export supplies and strong competition among world producers weighing on wheat prices. Rice prices fell to six-month lows as new crop arrivals added pressure. The vegetable oil price index rose 10.4% to 150.6 points, reaching its highest point since May 2018, led by firmer palm oil prices, which strengthened on robust import demand, increased biodiesel use and concerns over possible supply shortages. The meat price index registered its largest month-on-moth increase since May 2009, rising 4.6 percent from October to 190.5 points, with beef and sheep meat rising most strongly, lifted by demand from China and year-end holiday demand.”

  10. REAL Green on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 5:32 am 

    Food cost will increasingly be problematic with both supply and demand issues. Climate change and population growth will increasingly be issues tugging prices. Economic problems but also resource inflation will hammer farmers who may or may not benefit from higher prices. We are likely going into a perfect storm of food problems along with so many other problems. Now is a time to grow your own food for those who can. At least learn how to because the future does not look good for food security. Vertical and urban garden are just a niche when it comes to the big picture. Marine resources are in decline and the worlds vast monocultures will suffer from climate change and economic dislocations. REAL Green says personal food and energy production should be a central effort even if currently it is just a hobby or interest for many.

  11. REAL Green on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 5:36 am 

    “Natural gas drives record CO2 emissions in 2019”
    https://tinyurl.com/tew7df8 digital journal

    “Global carbon emissions boosted by soaring natural gas use are set to hit record levels in 2019 despite a decline in coal consumption and a string of countries declaring a climate emergency, researchers said Wednesday. In its annual analysis of fossil fuel trends, the Global Carbon Project said CO2 emissions were on course to rise 0.6 percent this year — slower than previous years but still a world away from what is needed to keep global warming in check. In three peer-reviewed studies, authors attributed the rise to “robust growth” in natural gas and oil, which offset significant falls in coal use in the United States and Europe. “We see clearly that global changes come from fluctuations in coal use,” said Corrine Le Quere, from the University of East Anglia, an author on the Carbon Budget report. “In contrast the use of oil and particularly natural gas is going up unabated. Natural gas is now the biggest contributor to the growth in emissions.” Atmospheric CO2 levels, which have been climbing exponentially in recent decades, are expected to hit an average of 410 parts per million this year, Le Quere said.”

  12. Davy on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 6:48 am 

    Many of us would be dead by now if Killery would have been elected. A NUK war with Russia was in the making. I would like to see Gabbard be the alternative to Trump but stupid blind lying deranged extremist liberals and their ideology and identity politics and politically “incorrect” correct bullshit will not allow that. Fuck Democrats and their socialistic farce and rainbow of shit. They are the real threat to the US constitution and civility in this country.

    “Pelosi: “Civilization Itself Is At Stake” If Trump Wins Re-Election”
    https://tinyurl.com/w8ya25s summit

    “Nancy Pelosi has ludicrously claimed that “civilization itself is at stake” if President Donald Trump wins re-election. The Speaker of the House made the comments during a town hall on CNN last night. “Civilization as we know it today is at stake in the next election, and certainly, our planet,” said Pelosi. “The damage that this administration has done to America, America’s a great country. We can sustain. Two terms, I don’t know,” she added. The remarks followed Pelosi’s outburst yesterday when she snapped at a reporter, telling him, “don’t mess with me!” The notion that civilization itself is at risk if Trump wins a second term in office is of course completely absurd. After more than three years, Democrats still refuse to accept that they lost the 2016 election. They have gone from screaming in the streets to seriously claiming that humanity as we know it will cease to exist if Trump wins re-election. Trump Derangement Syndrome knows no bounds.”

  13. Davy on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 6:51 am 

    Oops, sorry Boat. Ignore my above comment directed at you. It’s real hard for me to except the truth, but All your predictions were right. And all my predictions were wrong. Your obviously much more smarter than me.

  14. Davy on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 6:56 am 

    Inconvenient for the cloggo narrative of a golden eurotardland

    “German Industrial Production Crashes By Most In A Decade”
    https://tinyurl.com/vltxxra zero hedge

    “Just when you thought – based on all the talking heads and administration officials constant jawboning – that it was safe to buy stocks because global growth was troughing, Germany’s auto sector has to spoil the party. Thanks to a 5.4% MoM plunge in auto production in October, German Industrial output fell 1.7% in October, that’s the steepest since April and compared with estimates for a 0.1% gain. This unexpected drop sent industrial output down 5.3% YoY – the biggest drop since November 2009. Source: Bloomberg Additionally, a new source of weakness has also emerged, with production of capital goods excluding cars now down 5.9% on its August level. As Bloomberg notes, this means the sector is starting the fourth quarter on a very weak footing and could again place a heavy burden on the economy in 4Q. The weakness also adds downside risk to forecasts for manufacturing to stabilize this quarter (weighing down on GDP growth in 4Q by 0.59ppt). It would appear that the damage U.S.-China trade tensions and Brexit uncertainty have done to the economy that once was Europe’s powerhouse remains high, as German factory orders also unexpectedly slipped in October amid weak demand for investment goods within the country and outside the 19-nation euro area, and business confidence – while stabilizing – remains subdued. The Economy Ministry acknowledged on Friday that industrial momentum is weak, but also offered a more optimistic take on the outlook. “Recent developments in orders and business expectations signal that a stabilization trend could take hold in the coming months,” it said.”

  15. JuanP ID theft on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 6:58 am 

    LMFAO, stupid is up. Stupid you got up way to late to effectively troll. Stupid fuck.

    this is stupid not Davy:
    Davy said Oops, sorry Boat. Ignore my above comment directed…

  16. Davy on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 7:01 am 

    Oops. Sorry for getting all triggered and losing my widdle temper again y’all. The truth makes me real upset is all. I try real hard to ignore it.

  17. JuanP on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 7:20 am 

    Oops sorry for getting up late to do my mindless trolling I was masturbating. Sorry for getting all triggered and losing my mind

  18. Richard Guunette on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 7:21 am 

    People who troll forums should be banned

  19. JuanP on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 7:22 am 

    Sorry Richard but I don’t give a shit. I enjoy trolling and mindless socks. I am a fucked up individual and don’t care

  20. Davy on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 7:24 am 

    I love thinking about JuanP masterbating. It makes my widdle panties real moist.

  21. full woke supremacist muzzies jerk maximum newspeak I love cocks I love every kind of cocks so anyway I'm a cock lover and I love to run sorry I'm being emotional I'm thinking about cocks again i just love cock said SAW SAWS pbuh swt juanPee on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 7:24 am 

    Superturd see I therapist before your cyber stalking drives you to go postal.

  22. Richard Guunette on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 7:25 am 

    South Americans are arrogant and uneducated

  23. Richard Guunette on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 7:26 am 

    Illegals should be deported and their ill gotten property confiscated.

  24. Boney Joe on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 7:26 am 

    This is crazy

  25. Davy on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 7:26 am 

    Oops, sorry y’all. I spelt Guenette rong again.

    I’m such a dumbass.

  26. Truth Buster on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 7:27 am 

    JuanP is crazy for sure

  27. Gaia on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 7:27 am 

    Miami Beach is a hell hole

  28. T. Tobias on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 7:28 am 

    Yea and stupid lives there in a condo he ripped off from some poor bastard

  29. Boney Joe on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 7:29 am 

    Juan and I enjoy anal sex

  30. Davy on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 7:30 am 

    Has any body seen my widdle mind? I can’t seem to find it anywhere.

  31. JuanP sock insanity and ID theft on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 7:30 am 

    Obviously stupid is going off the deep end

    Boney Joe said Juan and I enjoy anal sex

    T. Tobias said Yea and stupid lives there in a condo he ripped of…

    Gaia said Miami Beach is a hell hole

    Truth Buster said JuanP is crazy for sure

    Davy said Oops, sorry y’all. I spelt Guenette rong again. I…

    Boney Joe said This is crazy

    Richard Guunette said Illegals should be deported and their ill gotten p…

    Richard Guunette said South Americans are arrogant and uneducated

    full woke supremacist muzzies jerk maximum newspeak I love cocks I love every kind of cocks so anyway I’m a cock lover and I love to run sorry I’m being emotional I’m thinking about cocks again i just love cock said SAW SAWS pbuh swt juanPee said Superturd see I therapist before your cyber stalki…

    Davy said I love thinking about JuanP masterbating. It makes…

    JuanP said Sorry Richard but I don’t give a shit. I en…

    Richard Guunette said People who troll forums should be banned

  32. REAL Green on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 7:36 am 

    We need to go see the doctor real bad Davy. The Internet is only making our widdle problems worse.

  33. Cloggie on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 8:25 am 

    Increase German luxury car sales Mercedes, Audi and BMW:

    https://m.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/mercedes-benz-bmw-audi-deutsche-premiumhersteller-steigern-absatz-a-1300070.html

    Forget davy and his ZH fake news.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-10-08/german-industrial-production-unexpectedly-improves-in-august

    “German Factories Feed Unexpected Rise in Industrial Output”

  34. supremacist muzzies jerk on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 8:38 am 

    Im happy supertard boat is back
    Happy (((supremetard))) birthday supertard

  35. Davy on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 8:56 am 

    “German Industrial Production Crashes By Most In A Decade”
    https://tinyurl.com/vltxxra zero hedge

    “Source: Bloomberg” 12/6/19

    “Forget davy and his ZH fake news.https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-10-08/german-industrial-production-unexpectedly-improves-in-august“German Factories Feed Unexpected Rise in Industrial Output”

    forget the cloggo’s attempt to use out of date news as a rebuttal. Typical fraudulent behavior out of the cloggo

  36. ull woke supremacist muzzies jerk maximum newspeak I love cocks I love every kind of cocks so anyway I'm a cock lover and I love to run sorry I'm being emotional I'm thinking about cocks again i just love cock said SAW SAWS pbuh swt juanPee on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 8:57 am 

    superturd troll juanPee why are you such a stupid idiot?

  37. Davy on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 9:00 am 

    Cloggo, is this fake news too?

    “November Payrolls Smash Expectations: 266K Jobs Added, As Mfg Workers Soar”
    https://tinyurl.com/s5wxyg4 zero hedge

  38. full woke supremacist muzzies jerk on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 10:05 am 

    Davy on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 9:00 am
    Above supertard obv.

    I can’t find the thread about lib urns. I need some lib urns myself but it’s not in store shelves. All gone

    I grabbed a couple lib orbs but I really wanted lib urns

  39. Full woke supremacist muzzies jerk maximum newspeak I love cocks I love every kind of cocks so anyway I'm a cock lover and I love to run sorry I'm being emotional I'm thinking about cocks again i just love cock said SAW SAWS pbuh swt juanPee on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 10:14 am 

    above superturd JuanP obv

    superturd why are you so stupid and trolling?

  40. full woke supremacist muzzies jerk on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 10:32 am 

    Muzzie rep in Philadelphia charged with crimes.
    Jizya in America to filthy FGM NASTY muzzie
    Muzzie in Philadelphia shot 6 cops
    Cop loved muzzies 10000x

  41. Duncan Idaho on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 11:08 am 

    1865 — US: 13th amendment ratified, abolishing slavery. Sorry, does not include wage slavery.

  42. full woke supremacist muzzies jerk maximum newspeak I know some wrong when a pretty little white girl ran to a black man arms dead giveaway deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeed giveaway on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 11:13 am 

    Muzzie FGM NASTY cockroach sasour eats pork and got fat. Still inner struggle hard against (((tards, supertards)))
    ‘Lo allah make muzzies fight jews until they hide behind gardhar trees”

  43. Duncan Idaho on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 11:15 am 

    1957 — US: Got Viagra? The first American attempt to launch an artificial satellite, a sphere fully 6.4 inches in diameter, fails as the Vanguard rocket rises less than five feet before it topples over & explodes. Like many American males, except for the five feet & the exploding part.

  44. Duncan Idaho on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 11:20 am 

    1989 — Canada: Fourteen female students are assassinated at a L’ecole Polytechnique in Montreal by a man vowing to kill feminists. Worst Canadian mass murder wouldn’t even earn the McDonald’s McMass McMurder title in the McUSA.

  45. Full woke supremacist muzzies jerk maximum newspeak I love cocks I love every kind of cocks so anyway I'm a cock lover and I love to run sorry I'm being emotional I'm thinking about cocks again i just love cock said SAW SAWS pbuh swt juanPee on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 11:38 am 

    full woke supremacist muzzies jerk maximum newspeak I know some wrong when a pretty little white girl ran to a black man arms dead giveaway deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeed giveaway , why are you so stupid and trolling?

  46. Davy Sock Puppetry and Projections on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 12:20 pm 

    I love cocks I love every kind of cocks so anyway I’m a cock lover and I love to run sorry I’m being emotional I’m thinking about cocks again i just love cock

  47. full woke supremacist muzzie cock sucker maximum newspeak I know some wrong when a pretty little cock sucker ran to a cock sucker names juanpeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeedead giveaway deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeed giveaway on Fri, 6th Dec 2019 12:39 pm 

    superturd juanPee, why are you so stupid and trolling?

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