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Page added on August 28, 2019

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Permian Basin Scenarios

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Seems we don’t know what future completion rates will be in the Permian basin or anywhere.  There are many different opinions on whether the completion rate might increase, decrease or stay the same.  In my view, the conservative assumption is to assume they will not go up or down, but that the completion rate will remain constant.   I have created three different scenarios: in the first, the completion rate increases; in the second, the completion rate decreases; the third scenario has a constant completion rate.

For all three scenarios the URR is about 37 Gb which is about 50% of the USGS mean TRR estimate for the Permian basin.  I assume the price of Brent oil remains $70/b in 2017$ or less from 2020 to 2080 in these scenarios, the price rises from $55/b in mid 2019 to $70/b in mid 2020.  The low completion rate scenario peaks in 2028 at 4400 kb/d, the constant completion rate scenario peaks at 5600 kb/d in 2028 at 5600 kb/d, and the high completion rate scenario peaks at 6600 kb/d in 2028.  I expect reality will fall somewhere between the high and low scenarios.  The completion rates are shown in the next chart, clearly in the past the completion rate was highly variable, this will continue in the future in some unpredictable way.  Simply imagine random squiggles around these stylized scenarios to get an idea what the future might bring.

Peak Oil Barrelby Dennis Coyne

9 Comments on "Permian Basin Scenarios"

  1. makati1 on Wed, 28th Aug 2019 7:04 pm 

    “In 2018, the United States imported about 9.93 million barrels per day (MMb/d) of petroleum from about 86 countries. Petroleum includes crude oil, hydrocarbon gas liquids, refined petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel fuel, and biofuels including ethanol and biodiesel. May 14, 2019”

    Energy independent? LMAO!

  2. Famlin on Wed, 28th Aug 2019 9:22 pm

    US imported 9.93 million b/d and exported 7.59 million b/d and the net imports is 2.34 million b/d.

    Whole lot of Natgas liquids are extracted from natural gas and those are blended with the heavy crudes to make gasoline/diesel and exported.

    As long as shale revolution continues this will work. Last week a new production record of 12.5 million b/d has been set per the weekly oil production report.

  3. print baby print on Thu, 29th Aug 2019 12:55 am 

    Yes true it is working at the moment. How ? It is in explainable perhaps print baby print who knows. Of course we can’t drive as much as we would like ( peak demand- bullshit stories).

  4. qutbthehatermuzziealameriki-akafmr on Thu, 29th Aug 2019 12:59 am 

    this is a very expensibe bike which doesn’t have two wheel drive.

    a good bike would be a trike with two front wheels so you never have to get off of it.

    pedal assist so you can mount a weedwacker engine to charge enough for intermitten power demand

    ‘lo i’m a superior muzzie monkey and allah has created me the best of humanity’

    i’ve seen grown men humbled by superior muzzie monkey IRL. the monkey is stupid as a mule but he dominates many men

  5. qutbthehatermuzziealameriki-akafmr on Thu, 29th Aug 2019 1:06 am 

    muzzie shot 6 cops in philadelphia and cops responded with 6 fold love muzzie
    muzzie wanted to blow up NYPD and cops response with love muzzie
    imam supertard big muzzie beard pbuh reported

  6. makati1 on Thu, 29th Aug 2019 2:03 am 

    The oily business only surviving because of low/zero interest on their trillion dollars of debt. The end is near. Prepare now.

  7. Robert Inget on Thu, 29th Aug 2019 10:11 am 

    Automation, AI, is permitting oil companies to
    stay in bidnes despite current break even oil price. Highly paid oil field workers are being canned daily.

    Just ten years ago tech in place today was considered airy fairy.

  8. Duncan Idaho on Thu, 29th Aug 2019 10:15 am 

    Greta seems to making the wingpawns livid.
    It is interesting to watch.
    Poor bastards are a confused and ideological mess.

  9. Anonymous on Fri, 30th Aug 2019 11:59 am 

    Another Dennis Coyne mindless string graph. Instead of trying to examine his assumptions (like EUR) all he does is make the same area under the curve chart with different shapes. And when challenged on any assumption instead of defending or changing it, all he does is say, “I’ll make another simulation as a variation”.

    He’s also got a bad record of predicting oil production in the past. Too peaker-ish. Not as bad as the other loons (who dis him). But still bad.

    His record on predicting price is also miserable. Butt miserable. And he doesn’t seem to have learned anything from it. But when you look at things price adjusted, then his volume prediction misses are even worse.

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