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Page added on November 16, 2017

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OPEC October Production Data

OPEC October Production Data thumbnail

All data below is based on the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

All data is through October 2017 and is in thousand barrels per day.

I have now included Equatorial Guneia although I only have data from January 2015 from OPEC’s secondary sources. The January 2015 E. Guneia data was extended back to January 2005. I know this is inaccurate but production from E. Guneia is so small it will make little difference.

OPEC crude oil production dropped by 151,000 barrels per day in October.


Algeria took a hit in October, down 38,400 bpd.

Angola was up almost 70,000 bpd in October.

Not much is happening in Ecuador. They were up 7,100 bpd in October.

I do not have historical data for Equatorial Guinea. The OPEC MOMR gives average annual production data for 2015 and 2016 and quarterly data for the first two quarters of 2017. But now we will have monthly data from now on. However, they produce the least of all OPEC countries and their production will make little difference.

Gabon, another of the also-rans. Any change in their production will have only a small effect.

Iran has clearly reached a post-sanctions peak.

Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, appears to have reached at least a temporary peak.

Kuwait’s crude oil production has been holding at just a tad over 2,700,000 bpd for all of 2017.

Libya has overcome most of their political problems. They should be producing a bit more than they are currently producing. Perhaps it will take them some time to repair their infrastructure.

I believe Nigeria will always have serious political problems. They are dramatically overpopulated and will always have rebel factions. Don’t look for any dramatic increase in production from Nigeria.

Qatar’s crude oil production peaked almost ten years ago. Their decline will continue.

Saudi produced exactly 10,000,000 bpd in October.

UAE’s crude oil production is holding steady at just over 2,900,000 bpd.

Venezuela’s crude oil production decline has accelerated in the last two months. Venezuela will very likely become a failed state in the next few years, or perhaps months. Their economy will totally collapse. This will hit their oil production even harder.

World oil supply has held steady for two years.

OPEC Head Says Oil Cuts ‘Only Viable Option’ to Stabilize Market

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries should decide at its meeting later this month whether or not to extend the cuts,…

Cuts? What cuts?


 Peak Oil Barrel by Ron Patterson


3 Comments on "OPEC October Production Data"

  1. Anonymous on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 5:46 pm 

    1. Good basic Ron article. Even when I disagree with him on interpretation of trends, like the presentation and content.

    2. He has toned down the peaker comments about every line going up being about to stop and every line being down being a sign of inexorable decline. Kudos.

    3. Commentary in the other thread (POB site)

    A. You have GuyM for the butt millionth time confused about recent RRC reports (which are always revised up). Even Ron knows the differnce now. But you have Mike, GuM, and EnergyNews continuing the stupidity.

    B. Fred has nice charts on the Bakken. Notes lower decline and GOR for out years in the Bakken. Just speculating, but this may be refracks. (See the discussion on QEP conference call, Seeking Alpha transcript.)

  2. Anonymous on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 6:29 am 

    3.b. could be flaring also. (Gas plants had maintenance issues and the Feds are STILL not getting their ass in gear to approve gas pipes…forked tongue serpents.)

    3.c. (new): As usual, Dennis tries to be less bat crazy than the crazies but also appeases them. There is not reason to think EIA monthlies are low, but he has to throw that to the hoi polloi. The Dean estimates are interesting but really less trustworthy nowadays since (a) he has two wildly different estimates, (b) the agreement of which one with EIA differs from gas to oil, (c) his corrections are not stationary over time (hence the need for two estimates, but still means really we have high uncertainty over the corrections at all, and (d) EIA has access to data not used by Dean (1) the “pending file” from RRC and (2) direct surveys of major producers.

  3. Anonymous on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 2:43 pm 

    By the way, EIA has long been aware of and referred to the data in the pending file (DI combines it for them with the normal RRC reporting:

    Plus for the last couple years they have done direct producer surveys, covering the vast majority of production (and allowing an estimate based on assumptions how the unsurveyed population behaves in comparision to surveyed producers).

    People referring to the EIA Texas data (and without even the pending file) are just out to lunch.

    And even pending plus posted has some missed production.

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