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Page added on August 17, 2019

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OPEC July Production Data


All data below, unless otherwise specified are from the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. All data is through July and is thousand barrels per day.

OPEC crude oil production was down 246,000 barrels per day in July’

There is often a difference between what secondary sources say OPEC produces and what the countries themselves say they produced. Nigeria said they were up 146,000 bpd while secondary sources said they were down 21,000 bpd.  Similar differences can be found in the Saudi and Venezuela data.

Iran’s decline, due to sanctions, has slowed slightly but they were still down 47,000 bpd in July.

Iraq’s crude oil production was up 32,000 bpd in July. That is a new all-time high for them. They are totally ignoring their OPEC quota request.

Saudi crude oil production was down 134,000 bpd in July.

Venezuela’s crude oil production decline appears to have reached a bottom.

Libya, Iran, and Venezuela are exempt from OPEC quotas. Iraq is totally ignoring their quota as they are producing 241,000 barrels per day above their quota. I believe Nigeria and Angola are both producing flat out. Angola is producing 86,000 bpd below their quota while Nigeria is producing 101,000 bpd above their quota. Kuwait may be producing flat out as well as they are 46,000 bpd below their quota.

Saudi Arabia is the big question. Are they choosing to produce 613,000 barrels per day below their quota? Or perhaps there is another reason?

I am a bit skeptical of OPEC’s estimate of World total liquids supply of 98.7 mb/d. Also, their statement that OPEC crude share of global production is just not correct. OPEC production, crude only, has averaged 39% of world C+C. OPEC does not publish C+C data but if they did their C+C data would be well over 40% of all C+C production.

Russian C+C production was down 11,000 bpd in July according to the Russian Minister of Energy.

OPEC plus Russia C+C production averages over 55% of total world production.


Peak Oil Barrelby Ron Patterson

7 Comments on "OPEC July Production Data"

  1. Robert Inget on Sat, 17th Aug 2019 10:44 am 

    First of all. Thanks for publishing these self explanatory charts.
    With Venezuela out of the game almost completly, with Chinese and India’s demand increasing almost expodentially,
    it’s difficult to keep up a glut propaganda offensive.

    Properly, adequately, supplied is not a definition of ‘GLUT’.

    I’ve said it before. Say again. China and India with almost 2.4 BILLION people to feed, house, transport, will soon be in position to take EVERY available export barrel on offer.

    FYI. Google: 2019 India, crude oil domestic demand. (Y over Y)
    Now, do the same for S. Korea, Vietnam, Japan, China.

  2. Robert Inget on Sat, 17th Aug 2019 11:28 am 

    Bolton caught beating his war-drum again.
    #BREAKING US announces warrant to seize Iranian supertanker Grace 1

    AFP news agency
    #UPDATE The US Justice Department issues a warrant for the seizure of the Iranian oil supertanker Grace 1, one day after a Gibraltar judge allowed the release of the detained vessel

    ‘Grace’ is carrying 2.5 Million Barrels of Iranian crude.
    I’m betting China is waiting with open arms.

    Now, you can take this as just another conspiracy theory, it doesn’t matter.

    Arresting ships at sea is piracy. (Fact)
    Look up the difference between “blockade” and “embargo”.

    (under embargo)
    Iran is allowed to load crude oil onto tankers and set sail.
    US ’embargo’ sanctions BUYERS of Iranian oil much the same way tariffs punish American buyers of in our case Chinese goods.

    A ‘blockade’ OTOH is an act of war or ‘casus belli’
    A blockade attempts to stop shipping, export or import.

    Tanker “Grace 1” will doubtless be escorted by Iranian Navy ships.
    US Navy may try to arrest “Grace 1” and it’s 2.5 M Barrels.
    Stay tuned.

  3. Robert Inget on Sat, 17th Aug 2019 12:00 pm 

    Authorities in Saudi Arabia have brought a fire under control at a major oil field after Houthi rebels in Yemen fired drones at the facility

    Damage at Saudi gas field ‘limited’ after Houthi drone attack, says minister
    The attack is not the first to hit vital petrochemical infrastructure, although supply has not been interrupted

    OK, Now we get a greater understanding of why Saudi Oil exports have slowed.

    It was only a matter of time before game changing
    drone technologies, like the cross-bow became
    an every-man’s weapon.

  4. Robert Inget on Sat, 17th Aug 2019 12:10 pm 

    India’s DOMESTIc demand . When will it exceed Chinese?

    Giovanni Staunovo

    #India: July oil demand +3.3% Y/Y to 17.6mt

    Gasoline +8.8% y/y
    Diesel +3.3%
    LPG +9.0%
    Naptha -5.3%
    Petcoke -12%

    May consumption revised from 18.3mt to 19mt


  5. Robert Inget on Sat, 17th Aug 2019 2:53 pm 

    Recent Graduates, forget about those pesky student loans.

  6. Robert Inget on Sat, 17th Aug 2019 2:56 pm 

    Att. WestCoast Residents!

    To avoid being eaten by Zombies;
    Coat entire body with gluten.

  7. Anonymous on Sun, 18th Aug 2019 6:07 pm 

    In the comments section, there is the usual beating on Dennis for being too optimistic. In fact, he has consistently UNDERestimated shale, not overestimated it. He doesn’t need to compromise and come closer to Ron Patterson. He needs to examine his own bad calls and learn from those (and up his projections).

    Ron has been miserably wrong over the years and learns nothing from it. Just grumps along like some crusty old man. To his credit, at least he’s numerical and recognizes price effects (barely). Even to the left of him, you have the batshit conspiracy types.

    All in all, it’s a crew that never learns. Heck, you have “Guy” who was repeating the old trope of RRC data showing a peak (long since even Ron had learned that was lag). And you have the crew making projections and saying EIA is too optimistic. But none of these losers examine the 2MM+ that US grew in 2018. Back when they were similarly saying EIA was too optimistic (it was not optimistic enough).

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