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Page added on January 16, 2020

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OPEC December 2019 Oil Production Data

OPEC December 2019 Oil Production Data thumbnail

All OPEC data for the charts below are from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report https://momr.opec.org/pdf-download/

OPEC crude oil production continued to slide in December.

 

OPEC production was down 161,000 barrels per day in December but that was after November production had been revised upward by 54,000 barrels per day.

Angola had the largest gain in December, up 125,000 barrels per day.

This will be Ecuador’s last month with OPEC. In January it will be the OPEC 13. This will not cause a drop in OPEC production as Ecuador’s historical production will be removed from all OPEC data.

Gabon was up 22,000 barrels per day in December, a big jump for them.

Iran continued its slow decline. Political problems have increased in the area but I expect they will have little effect on oil production.

Iraq is still producing flat out. They reached 4,642,000 barrels per day in December 2016 and have been close to that number every month since.

Expect Kuwait to hold at close to this level until their share of the Neutral Zone comes online. Whenever that might be.

Libya is exempt from OPEC quotas due to political problems. However I doubt they could produce much more if they didn’t have any such problems.

It’s hard to tell what’s going on with Nigeria.

Saudi Arabia seems to be settling at around 9,750,000 barrels per day, a point which they reached in April 2019. They were down 111,000 barrels per day in December.

The UAE was down 46,000 barrels per day in December.

Venezuela has been holding fairly steady at around 700,000 barrels per day, a level they fell to in March 2019.

According to the OPEC Secretariat, World oil production saw a huge increase during the last three months of 2019. They say December 2019 total liquids production will be 1.55 million barrels per day above December of 2018. We only have World data through September 2019 so it’s hard to see where this increase will come from. This would require over a 4 million barrel per day increase over September production. And they got this information via direct communication from the UK, Norway, Canada, Mexico, and the US. I don’t believe it. But we shall see.

The above OPEC 13 is just OPEC yearly average from 2001 less Ecuador. Not much difference. But you can see that OPEC has been relatively flat since 2005. In fact, they are now well below their 2005 level. Yet they claim to have almost 80% of the world’s proven reserves.

The above chart is from the EIA and is through September 2019. C+C has only a small increase since the last quarter of 2015 but is now below that late 2015 level. Total liquids have had a slightly better increase.

Russia through December 2019. They are at the point they said they hope to hold for the next 4 years.

Canada according to their National Energy Board. The last few months are a projection made in November 2019.

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