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Page added on May 7, 2019

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Is Deepwater In Permanent Decline?


No. At least according to a recent poll conducted during a presentation at the 2019 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas.

The majority of poll participants attending the presentation, which focused on offshore deepwater, answered no when asked if they considered the segment to be in permanent decline.

In a separate poll during the presentation, attendees were asked what they thought was the most promising technology innovation for deepwater in the next decade.

Almost half of the participants for this poll answered “machine learning”, with 38 percent of participants siding with advances in mechanical, materials and electronics (MME). Nine percent answered “drones” and six percent answered “other”.

Earlier this year, Rystad Energy revealed that it expects global deepwater liquid production to surpass 10 million barrels per day (MMbpd) this year, before rising further in 2020. The company confirmed to Rigzone back in February that global deepwater liquid production had never surpassed 10 MMbpd before.

“With new fields starting up in Brazil and Gulf of Mexico, we expect the total deepwater liquid production to reach 10.3 MMbpd in 2019. This is an increase of 700,000 bpd compared to 2018,” Rystad said in a statement posted on its website in February.

Angola, Norway, Nigeria, Brazil and the United States are the largest deepwater producers, Rystad Energy highlighted earlier this year.

During a presentation at the OTC on Monday, Murphy Oil Corporation President and Chief Executive Officer Roger W. Jenkins stated that it’s a great time to be investing in the offshore business.

The OTC is celebrating its 50th year in 2019. Over 61,000 people from more than 100 countries attended the 2018 version of the event, according to the OTC’s website.


14 Comments on "Is Deepwater In Permanent Decline?"

  1. Anonymous on Tue, 7th May 2019 10:01 pm 

    GOM production hit 1.9 for a couple months last year. At POB, there are a couple of peak oilers who do extensive field by field surveys (sort of like the old megaprojects TOD effort). They know way more about the details of GOM than I do. They laughed at EIA projecting growth. Said GOM would decline (expected 1.5s this year). But EIA proved to be right.

    Just something to watch out for if you consume too much of your oil and gas news from the peakosphere. You end up with people that do science-y projections (Berman, Hughes, Patterson, Coyne, Kaplan, Verwimp). The stuff looks mathematical. But it has a habit of being wrong…and in one direction. Just something to watch for. If anything EIA (that they laugh at) is much closer, and is actually too conservative not too optimistic.

  2. Robert Inget on Wed, 8th May 2019 7:32 am 

    China’s Apr crude oil imports rebound to record high 10.68 mil b/d

    “China’s crude oil imports in April hit a record high of 10.68 million b/d, rebounding from 9.3 million b/d in March, preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs showed Wednesday.

    On a barrels per day basis, the volume represented a 14.9% month-on-month jump, and rose 10.8% from April 2018.
    The previous record high was 10.48 million b/d in November 2018 and the country’s crude imports were hovering above 10 million b/d for four months until March, when the volume fell to 9.3 million b/d.

    Meanwhile, China’s oil product exports retreated 14.4% to 6.17 million mt from the record high of 7.21 million mt in March due to tight export quotas and maintenance of exporting refineries in April, GAC data showed.

    As a result, net oil product exports fell 36.8% on the month to 2.66 million mt in April, the data revealed.

  3. Robert Inget on Wed, 8th May 2019 7:43 am 

    India’s crude oil production for the financial year 2018-19 dropped 4.15 per cent to 34.2 million tonne (MT), compared to 35.68 MT during the financial year 2017-18. On the other hand, natural gas production during the same period showed a marginal increase of 0.69 per cent.

    Cumulative natural gas production during April-March period of the last financial year was seen at 32873.37 million metric standard cubic meter (MMSCM), compared to 32649.31 MMSCM during the same period in 2017-18.

    Among the public sector undertakings, state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) saw 5.4 per cent drop in its crude production during April to March 2018-19 to 21.04 MT versus 22.25 MT during April-March period of 2017-18. Natural gas production by the company during April-March, 2018-19 was 24674.65 MMSCM, 5.31 per cent higher than the production during the corresponding period of the last year. Some of the reasons for lower production include decline in pressure or potential in GS-4 Gas cap reservoir in Gandhar field.

    Another public sector major Oil India Ltd (OIL) saw a decline in its crude oil production by 2.46 per cent to 3.3 MT during the last fiscal compared to 2017-18. Natural gas production by OIL during April to March period of 2018-19 also declined 5.54 per cent compared to the previous year. Interestingly, crude oil and natural gas production by the private sector and joint ventures were also down 1.9 per cent and 13.59 per cent, respectively during the period under review. The reason for drop in private sector gas production includes the closure of two wells in D1D3 field by Reliance Industries (RIL).

  4. Robert Inget on Wed, 8th May 2019 7:54 am 

    I’ll post EIA Inventory Repore rat here @ 10:30
    Pacific Time.

    #Crude +2.806, Cushing +0.618, #Gasoline -2.833, #Distillate -0.834

    I’ll be more interested in consumption numbers.
    (over 20.2 M B p/d)

  5. Robert Inget on Wed, 8th May 2019 9:32 am 

    10:35 EST

    Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending May 3, 2019

    U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.4 million barrels per day during the week
    ending May 3, 2019, which was 41,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s
    average. Refineries operated at 88.9% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline
    production increased last week, averaging 10.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel
    production decreased last week, averaging 5.1 million barrels per day.

    U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.7 million barrels per day last week, down by 721,000
    barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports
    averaged about 6.8 million barrels per day, 15.6% less than the same four-week period
    last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline
    blending components) last week averaged 1,114,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel
    imports averaged 111,000 barrels per day.
    U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum
    Reserve) decreased by 4.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 466.6 million
    barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the five year average for this time of year.

    motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.6 million barrels last week and are about 2%
    below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending
    components inventories both decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by
    0.2 million barrels last week and are about 5% below the five year average for this time
    of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels last week and are
    about 17% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum
    inventories decreased last week by 1.7 million barrels last week.

    Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.2 million barrels per
    day, down by 0.3% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor
    gasoline product supplied averaged 9.5 million barrels per day, up by 0.3% from the
    same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.8 million barrels per
    day over the past four weeks, down by 9.7% from the same period last year. Jet fuel
    product supplied was up 6.7% compared with the same four-week period last year.

  6. Robert Inget on Wed, 8th May 2019 9:37 am 

    Comments from someone other than myself?

    Diesel consumption is DOWN again 9.7 from last week. Any ideas as to why?

    Jet fuel, a good economic indicator, flys in the face of lower diesel consumption?

  7. Robert Inget on Wed, 8th May 2019 10:28 am 

    If your interested, this link spotlights OPEC and NOPEC imports.

    Note Venezuela (0) will be the last we see
    of Venezuelan exports for this year, almost certainly. W/O Venezuelan crude, attacking Iran
    is out of the question. In fact holding Iran to zero
    exports would bankrupt the planet. This would make this Trump’s largest BK, like HUGE.

    I’ll admit I was premature on this score. I believed
    Venezuela would be stuck repaying Chinese loans
    with oil. They didn’t, & are now utterly in hock to Russia and China.

    Russian oil personal are in VZ now, with more expected soon. Venezuela represents Russia’s chance to re vitalize its economy. In this case, Russia’s (and China’s) gain is America’s loss.

    The negative for the US remains Chinese and Russian control of the biggest known stash on HEAVY crude in the world.
    Two DAYS sail from Texas refineries REQUIRING
    VZ’s heavy crude.

    People here don’t need to be reminded, Canada’s
    exports are pipeline limited.
    By banning Keystone XL we are at the mercy of Russia and China for diesel fuel.

    Only EXISTING pipelines are safe investments. Early GW onset will put a kibosh on LT PL, drilling investments.

    California may ban further drilling off and in shore. Other states may follow.

    My theory. When the automobile, invented at the turn of 20th century, horses remained a principal
    mode of transport for 15 to 20 years.

    Electric cars, aircraft, shipping, AG certainly are in infancy. Diesel and pipeline shortages, geopolitical risk, will FORCE us to go renewable
    like it or not. Including nuclear, geothermal, tidal etc.

  8. Robert Inget on Wed, 8th May 2019 10:38 am 

    There’s no ‘shortage’ of Victorian houses in San Francisco. It just depends on how much one is willing or able to pay.

  9. I AM THE MOB on Fri, 10th May 2019 5:42 pm 


    EIA Vastly Overstates Oil Output Forecasts, MIT Study Suggests

    Hear is the former EIA head

    Permian Won’t Be Enough — Prepare for Supply Gap and ‘a Decade of Disorder’

  10. I AM THE MOB on Fri, 10th May 2019 5:42 pm 

    The Shale Boom Is About To Go Bust

  11. I AM THE MOB on Fri, 10th May 2019 6:49 pm 

    MyPillow Lays Off 150 Workers Months After CEO Credited Trump Tax Cuts for Economic Boom

  12. I AM THE MOB on Fri, 10th May 2019 7:33 pm 

    Vladimir Putin scores at least eight goals in hockey exhibition, then falls on face

    Russian president Vladimir Putin scored at least eight goals in an exhibition ice hockey game with former National Hockey League players at Sochi’s Bolshoy Ice Dome, then took a face-first spill while waving to the crowd during a post-game victory lap.

  13. I AM THE MOB on Fri, 10th May 2019 7:51 pm 

    Nigel Farage ‘fled’ after his Range Rover smashed into Jaguar carrying a toddler

  14. Cloggie on Sat, 11th May 2019 6:26 am 

    Deepwater oil maybe in decline, undeepwater solar could be on the rise:

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