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How Will USA Oil Production Evolve to 2023?


U.S. crude oil supply will only marginally increase this summer.

That’s according to Rystad Energy’s latest analysis, which forecasts that U.S. crude output is forecast to grow by 60,000 barrels per day to 11.51 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in July and remain at the same level in August.

A dip is then expected in September and October to 11.34 MMbpd and 11.41 MMbpd, respectively, followed by a constant, slow growth trajectory commencing in November 2021, when crude output is expected to rise back to 11.55 MMbpd, Rystad Energy revealed. December will see 11.62 MMbpd, and, from January 2022 onwards, output will continue to rise, breaking the 12 MMbpd monthly average from October that year, Rystad Energy projected.

U.S. monthly output in 2022-2023 is not expected to match the record 12.9 MMbpd achieved in 2019, as WTI prices are not forecast to remain at the current high levels, Rystad Energy noted. The company added, however, that there is some upside potential if volatility continues.

Texas and New Mexico are expected to drive nearly all oil production growth from the second half of 2021 through 2023, while the rest of the country is set to remain in a maintenance mode, producing around 5.3 MMbpd to 5.4 MMbpd over the coming years, Rystad Energy predicted.

In its latest analysis, Rystad Energy highlighted that a lot of 2021 crude output by public producers in the U.S. is hedged at much lower price levels than in the $70s, meaning operators book a financial loss which partly offsets physical gains, ultimately disincentivizing extra production. The company also outlined, however, that below 40 percent of the total expected shale oil output in 2021 is hedged, meaning there are many operators that would be highly incentivized by higher WTI prices, especially private producers. Rystad Energy noted that, for them, there could in theory be some upside to production if the higher prices are perceived as a structural change rather than short-term rebalancing.

Nevertheless, no major supply response is possible for both types of producers before the second quarter of 2022, Rystad Energy pointed out. The industry is still heavily relying on DUCs completion and to see a serious ramp up in fracking volumes operators would first need to increase drilling, Rystad Energy said. The company also highlighted that operators in 2021 are remaining committed to capital discipline and on returning dividends to shareholders after the previous tough year.


11 Comments on "How Will USA Oil Production Evolve to 2023?"

  1. Duncan Idaho on Fri, 16th Jul 2021 4:06 pm 

    White House: Florida accounts for 20 percent of all new COVID-19 infections

    Well, at least they are good a something, other than ripping people off.

  2. FamousDrScanlon on Sat, 17th Jul 2021 3:51 pm 

    Fracked to Death

    “[I have been writing in this space since the beginning of the fracking “revolution” that it was a con aimed at lenders and investors. Search The Daily Impact for the word “fracking” and you can see for yourself.]

    The confusion here arises from the fact that the operators brag about the profits from individual wells but never mention that the wells, which are fiendishly expensive to build and operate, play out in about three years instead of the normal 20+ years for a traditional well. Not only do the profits not pay for the well, but they don’t fund the construction of the next well which must be up and running in 36 months to maintain the company’s revenue stream. So when you factor in the capital spending necessary to stay in business, nobody’s making any money.

    But for 15 years, lenders and investors have been throwing money at the frackers like they used to do for dot-coms and substandard mortgages. Like the continued hysterical buoyancy of the stock market, the whole thing’s a mystery until we realize that the financial world of today is driven by the one percent of people who are awash in cash, so much that they cannot possibly spend it, but who nevertheless demand of “wealth managers” and “hedge funds” that they go out and find double-digit returns for investing their obscene surpluses. With typical investments returning a couple of percent per year, the money guys are desperate, and like all the people conned through all of history, desperately want to believe the con.”

  3. Ted Wilson on Sun, 18th Jul 2021 8:58 pm 

    By end of 2021, 99% of world population must have received at least 1 dose and by middle of 2022, 99% must have received both doses.

    So expect world oil demand to hit the max starting in 2022. However by 2021-12, the lithium battery price will go down from $137 / KWh to $110 / KWh which will further reduce price of electric vehicles.

    So any sudden increase in oil demand will be met with electric vehicles in addition to hybrids. I dont expect foolish wall street to step in to lend.

  4. Duncan Idaho on Tue, 20th Jul 2021 7:58 pm 

    Bitcoin lower than 3–
    Was 6.5

    Something worth nothing gradually getting to its true value.

    But it was a fun ride by some—-

  5. Theedrich on Wed, 21st Jul 2021 1:23 am 

    Let’s think about the evolution of more than oil. As Professor Richard Lynn, Director of the Ulster Institute for Social Research, Coleraine, Northern Ireland, showed in his 1996 book, Dysgenics:  Genetic Deterioration in Modern Populations (London & Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers, p. 208), the average intelligence in Western nations has fallen by between five and eight IQ points in the last 1¾ centuries.  In other words, in spite of modern technology, we are on average becoming dumber and dumber. The less conscious are reproducing at a much faster rate than the more conscious.  And the Democrats now in power are accelerating this descent with their policy of importing subhumans (along with narcotics, crime, diseases and parasites of all types) through the southern border as fast as possible.  To the great benefit of the oligarchic elites and their marionettes.

    Further notes:
    Global Genotypic IQ Levels:
    IQ of the world in 1950:  92.75
    IQ of the world in 2000:  90.31
    “Decline of 2.44 in 50 years (two generations, i.e. 1.22 per generation)”
    Estimated world IQ for 2050:
    86.67 (decline of 1.29 points per 25-year generation, due to low-IQs outbreeding high-IQs)
    Bye, bye, United States of America

    Projection:  2.44 ⨯ 2 = 4.88 decline per century.  Thus in one millennium:  4.88 ⨯ 10 = 48.8 IQ (= ca. 50) points lower for the planet.  In other words, estimating for the year 3021, the global IQ would ≈ 90 – 50 = 40.  That is, humanity will have regressed to about the level of the chimpanzee or lower.

    Thank you, wokesters and all you “humane” philanthropists.

  6. Biden's hairplug on Wed, 21st Jul 2021 3:23 am 

    “To the great benefit of the oligarchic elites and their marionettes.”

    In the old days you had a club called NASA, remember them? That organization was populated by serious people, people with glasses and a deep frown. They organized the moon landings as a national effort, on orders of the government, not some oligarch.

    Today we have three oligarchs who are attempting to reach to the stars.

    In a certain sense, we’re back in the Middle Ages, that were owned by a few, who owned the castles and all the surrounding lands, that were leased to farmers, who were supposed to farm them and pay off the rent as a tax.

    That old aristocracy-by-birth has been replaced by a business “aristocracy”, that thinks globalist, has zero allegiance to its place of birth and considers every biped as a “resource”. Democracy? Has been bought and paid for, enabled by a complicit media, also in the hands of the oligarchs.

    Today, nobody openly attacks the oligarchs. Nobody tries to downsize them, instead they are all in bed with them.

    Here is the German Greens leader, Annalena Baerbock:

    No further questions, your honor!

    She loves to see herself as the summit of humanity, goodness, compassion, care for the environment. Oh, and she wants to arm the Ukrainian government, so they can fight the Russians in Donbass, just like the Greens were keen on joining the US in Iraq (which the socialist chancellor prevented). The Greens: the long arm of the US deep state.

    Socialists? They are in bed with the oligarchs, have abandoned the white under classes and began to embrace a new electorate, the darkies. As a consequence, the traditional anti-capitalists were decimated.

    The whole system needs to collapse first, like the USSR did, and it’s coming. And Trump, Brexit, Covid, China and climate are going to be a big help.

  7. Biden's hairplug on Wed, 21st Jul 2021 3:33 am 

    Zulu uprising in South-Africa:

    215 killed, 1 billion dollar damage, 1400 ATMs destroyed, 40,000 business implicated. It took 25,000 soldiers to restore order. A lot of damage has not yet been assessed (Johannesburg).

    If it had been a natural catastrophe, like the flooding in Germany, the damage would be repaired in a matter of weeks and that would be it. But in South-Africa, the real damage is far worse: social trust has been destroyed. Why rebuild malls if the chimps could come back any time? The precedent has been set.

  8. Duncan Idaho on Fri, 23rd Jul 2021 5:42 pm 

    “If you paid $120 for a pair of [Nike] shoes, you paid more to Nike than it paid in federal income taxes over the past 3 years, while it made $4.1 billion in profits.”

    You have to love it, no matter how bad it has screwed you—-

  9. makati1 on Fri, 23rd Jul 2021 6:46 pm 

    Capitalism is nothing but legal theft. Its time is about over. A is “democracy”. Adjust.

    BTW: Anyone who pays $120 for a logo is just stupid!

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