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GoM Summary Part V: Possible Futures

GoM Summary Part V: Possible Futures thumbnail

This analysis concerns C&C only. Natural gas production is low and steadily declining with few deep gas-condensate discoveries and the shallow dry gas fields at end of life. I don’t know if lack of gas may affect oil production – e.g. insufficient: flow to allow stable pipeline operation; income to be economic to warrant continuing maintenance; or fuel gas or lift gas supply to surface facilities. Any such issues could influence shutdown timing and hence the possible stranding of assets.

Top Down Production Projections

The chart above shows a Verhulst fit to GoM C&C production using seven curves, three describing shallow production and two each for deep and ultra-deep. A symmetric logistic curve is convenient for manual curve fitting as it allows a linear extrapolation to give the ultimate recovery, but most production curves are not symmetrical – usually the decline is less concave with a thicker tail, especially as the production volume and number of independent producing entities are reduced. With Excel, using least-squares optimisation fitting to any curve(s) is simple and has the benefit of allowing additional constraints to be imposed for sensitivity checks (e.g. total area, equivalent to the ultimate recovery, and position or height of peak), so more general Verhulst curves allow closer fitting.

Against this is that fitting fairly arbitrary curves maybe negates some of the births-and-deaths theoretical basis for a logistic model and, as mentioned below, can distort the extrapolated tails unless some additional constraints are applied.

The drilling hiatus after 2010 complicates the fit by creating a false trough and deferring the peak; without it only one curve would be needed for each of the deep and ultra-deep production. The fit to the shallow production is pretty good and gives an ultimate recovery of 14Gb. in its 2018 report BOEM estimates ultimate recovery at 13.4Gb, with 67mmbls added that year (and generally the additions are declining each year) so that too fits well.

The curve above has a total recovery of 32Gb C&C, with 12Gb in deep water and 6Gb in ultra-deep; BOEM in 2018 gave these as 7.8 and 3.7 respectively, with annual changes of -36 and 174mmbbls, make of that what you will. There are a couple of billion under development or close to FID but not included by BOEM: projects in the Appomattox area, Vito, Mad Dog, Anchor, Kings Quay and Shenandoah, though much of it is 20ksi technology that has yet to be proven in full operation and is costly and with long lead times.

The second chart shows fits with constrained recoverable reserves of 28, 32 and 40Gb (shown as line curves) and an unconstrained case that gave reserves of 58Gb (shown as the stacked area chart). All cases use the same curve for the shallow production and optimsed the fit with the parameters of the four other Verhulst curve. Current BOEM 2018 estimates of total 2P reserves of C&C are 24.9Gb (13.4 / 7.8 / 3.7).

By these estimates 2019 looks likely to be a peak, if not an all-time then at least for some years. This year will be well down compared with last and it will take a few years of steady development to catch up if the peak is to be exceeded, assuming sufficient and rapid discoveries become available, which seem unlikely (see later sections). As mentioned before, a delayed and higher peak would be an expected result of the 2010 hiatus (as happened to a bigger effect in the UK with the Piper Alpha shutdowns).

With only half the curve to fit to the parameters are sensitive to small changes, although I’d venture that the actual answer is bounded by the cases shown. The displayed curves indicate that new reserves need to come more from deep rather than ultra-deep but I don’t think too much should be read into that; in further studies just small parametric changes didn’t change the accuracy of the overall fit much but had big effects on the split between each curve.

Reserve Projections

Below is an attempt at a similar fit to reserve discoveries, although only using a single curve for each depth. This is rather more difficult than for flow: (i) the process of discovery is more stochastic than for production; (ii) recent discoveries, which have a large effect on the tail shape, are not known well and depend on whether they have yet been through FID; (iii) with BOEM any new field discoveries in a producing lease are backdated against the original field, which loads the curves to the front end and thins out the tails; BOEM estimates for recoverable reserves  tend towards the conservative; and (v) the estimates for new discoveries not in development in 2018 are based on company reports, either directly or through industry magazines, which tend towards optimism (often citing an “up to” figure, which would correspond to a P3 estimate).

The tails on these curves give only 700mmbbls more, split slightly in favour of deep rather than ultra-deep, to give a total ultimate recovery of 29Gb. I think it will be higher with a couple of major finds but mostly near field tie-ins either to the set of hubs  currently under development or appraisal or extended reach tie-backs (BSEE/BOEM is currently looking at technology that could promote development of these so that presently stranded assets can be matched with existing under utilised surface processing, which I’d assume includes things like heated flow lines, subsea compression, and subsea separation). The dearth of recent lease sales would tend to militate against a lot more – maybe 32Gb will prove to be about right.

EIA Reserve Estimates

The previous estimates are all based on BOEM reserve figures. The EIA also issues estimates based on reports from the E&Ps. For 2018 these are 5191mmbbls (C&C), but are a 1P number (proven). This compares with 3434 from BOEM, a nominal 2P number. In the UK 2018 probable reserves were 40% of proven, in offshore Mexico 80% (but the Cantarell field contains almost half the probable reserves which is a bit surprising for a mature field), and in Brazil about 60% (an educated guess as the ANP board only issues 1P an 3P numbers). Given the maturity of the GoM basin and the technology available I’d expect the GoM would be closer to the UK number. In addition the companies numbers likely include some reserves for fields in development but not yet in the BOEM numbers; so a conservative guess around 7Gb for 2P EIA equivalent seems reasonable, but is likely to be more dependent on oil price than the BOEM number. I think some of the biggest contributors to the extra EIA reserves are higher recovery factor estimates, especially for the large ultra-deep fields operated by the Shell, BP and Chevron. For example the BP fields Atlantis and Thunder Horse have present recoveries, from BP investor presentations, of just above 10%, and Mad Dog’s is given as below 5%. These are large fields with over a billion barrels of original oil in place. Just small changes in the recovery factor results in a significant change in reserves. BP is forecasting an increase to 400kboed production (from 300 in 2019) and then, without new discoveries, a slow decline. The higher EIA numbers are not incompatible with an estimated C&C recovery of 32Gb, but may suggest a higher upper end, depending as usual on future discoveries.

Well Decline Rates

Well decline rates were estimated by fitting an exponential to the decline phase (after the maximum monthly average is reached) for data from 2014 onwards. New wells tend to decline rapidly in the initial months after ramp-up and any plateau. A power-decay curve (e.g. a hyperbolic) would be closer than an exponential in the early months, but that is not particularly relevant to the later life behaviour, which is what matters most for estimating ultimate recoveries.

The chart above shows the example of some of wells for Anadarko. In each field the wells are stacked from oldest to newest and all start at their maximum month, so the upper measured curves are shorter and some may not even be in the real decline phase.

The rates are mostly collected around 15%, but some have are above 50%, e.g. Lucius and Heidelberg have some initially large wells that decline fast with water break through. Older low flowing wells decline much slower, and because the time considered was only from 2014 these numbers are not really representative over the life cycle of the well. A few wells (not shown) have negative decline but are all low producers and, often, intermittent. Those with very high decline rates are either newly started or have ceased flowing, in either case the fit was against only a few and scattered data points. Overall the decline rates are probably better than average for high-pressure wells mostly without external pressure support, but do indicate that to maintain or increase overall production a steady supply of wells from new projects or in-fill drilling is required, and those are starting to run thin.

Well Start-up Activity

The following shows the number of new deep or ultra-deep water wells started up in recent years, plus the total extra flow added once they have achieved their maximum monthly average flow, which may be several months to years later because of ramp up issues or plateau periods. Also shown is the number reaching their maximum and the sum of these maximums each year. These are a bit dodgier as indicators of growth because wells may be on a bumpy plateau and have just a small increase in a given year rather than indicating end of a ramp up or plateau. New maxima do not all come from recently drilled wells but could be from recompletions, work-overs, sidetracks, added gas lift, other causes of reduced wellhead pressure (e.g. as throughput from neighbouring wells is reduced), improved availability etc. These wells would not necessarily correspond to wells shown as new start-ups.

There was a spike in completions in 2009, probably from deep rather than ultra-deep water projects, a dip from 2010 to 2013 and then a steady rise to 2018 with new starts dropping in 2019 and so far collapsing in 2020. Wells reaching a maximum follow a similar pattern but a year or so behind and 2019 had a peak in number and flow of wells reaching their maximum. Likely the 2019 values will decline and 2020’s will increase as some wells exceed their previous maximums. The number of added wells for 2020 is only through June but is unlikely to double in the second half given the CAPEX reduction for all the E&Ps plus other effects of the COVID pandemic and an active Hurricane season. Some of the wells to be added might be quite large producers though, especially for Appomatox and Atlantis Phase III, additionally Stampede and Big Foot are still ramping up and Katmai may come on line, depending on Fieldwood’s bankruptcy.

The pattern of peaks somewhat follows oil price: five years before 2018/2019 was just before the oil price collapse and would have seen major project FIDs, and late 2016 was when the price started to recover so that brownfield developments and small tie-ins were approved, all of which would have started beginning in 2018. However the sample size is a bit small to be conclusive and the net effect of many small individual issues may be the significant factor.

The chart below shows well additions by number and maximum volume according to the field size at the time that the associated well was started. The additions from each group follow pretty much the same pattern (i.e. the same years tend to attract higher or lower number of starts from all groups), and the larger fields tend to result in slightly larger producers.

Overall it looks like the next two or three years are going to see declining production compared with 2019, mitigated by the ramp-up of Appomatox and Thunder Horse South Phase II, before some large new developments begin start-up from late 2021 onwards (Kings Quay, Vito, Mad Dog II – aka Argos, Anchor). It seems most of the attractive near field opportunities for existing hubs have been used up and new ones will have to wait until the coming ultra-deep water hubs get through their plateau and have enough spare processing capacity to allow new tie-ins or in-fill wells, or new technologies that allow extended reach tie-ins (and, of course, depending on discoveries).

Field Decline Rates

Many large deep water fields peaked around the second half of 2018 and have been declining, slowly, since. The pace at which fields have peaked is slightly higher in the months since then than before . Another set of smaller fields peaked in early 2020 some of those may yet ramp up further as production recovers or new wells are added but several of these are one or two well tie-backs and have been declining as expected since a peak in their first couple of months on stream. Only Dalmatian, Coalecanth and Buckskin peaked in July (and for these it could be a final peak) but Appomatox and Big Foot will certainly exceed current maximums as drilling progresses.

In order to look at mature field declines (i.e. those started before about 2010 or without significant new associated field discoveries since then) they were split into three groups: shallow water, those operated by the majors (which include the still high producing fields like Thunder Horse, Atlantis, Shenzi, Mad Dog, Caesar/Tonga/Tahiti) and other mature deep water that are all well into the decline phase (albeit with occasional brown field impacts).

Each group shows a significantly higher decline rate for the remaining reserves than for their production rates, in fact the ‘majors’ group shows steadily increasing flow. This means their respective R/P numbers have been declining and either the reserves are under-estimated (by a lot) or something is going to give and production declines increase considerably. From 2005 to 2018 the R/P values for shallow/mature deep/majors fell from 7.4/11.1/41.5 to 4.9/5.4/4.8 years. Even the group of remaining non-mature fields (i.e. recent start-ups) has an average R/P value that has been steadily falling to reach 4.8 years in 2018. Values around five imply decline rates of 20%. There are signs that the small deep mature group has entered a steeper decline starting in mid 2019 after a plateau period, partly the result of production deferment after the Enchilada platform fire and Garden Banks pipeline shutdown but with extensive brownfield development. Shallow fields might be similar but the Covid related shut-ins make any new trend difficult to see at the moment.  There have been small net increases in the overall reserves, probably mostly from small near field discoveries and/or IOR initiatives, for the shallow and mature deep groups but these have been trending down towards zero (probably in the next few of years). For the larger, major operated fields downward revisions  from original estimates have exceeded new discoveries so far, due mainly to large decreases in Atlantis and Thunder Horse soon after their start-ups.

The peak month for the majors group was December 2018 (with the maximum for the trailing twelve month average in January 2019). Even the group of recent start-ups (i.e. everything else and not shown in the chart) had a local peak in February 2020 (average annual peak in March/April ) and has declined by 30% since – see below for further discussion on Covid-19 and Tropical Storm deferment effects.

Leasing Activity

In 2016, under the Obama administration, BOEM stated that it would present for sale all remaining available leases in Western and Central GoM in a series of tranches up to 2022. The Eastern area is mostly under a drilling moratorium until at least 2022 but is generally considered not to be highly prospective and the few discoveries there have been natural gas. There are five auctions planned, although that for August was cancelled, and others might follow suit if oil prices and E&P activity remain low. Each sale is for about 14,500 tracts meaning about 70,000 are available, but recent uptake has only been a bit above 6% and falling so maybe only 3000 to 5000 would be sold to add to the 1200 existing open leases. This is considering non-shallow wells only; there are still some shallow leases available but recent discoveries have been insignificant.

GoM leases are held open initially for 5, 8 or 10 years. If they are not then retained by production or exploration activity they expire; they may also be relinquished early or extended if an operators request is accepted by BOEM/BSEE. Most by far are ceded without seeing any production. All water depths have seen a declining proportion of operated leases even as the numbers purchased have been declining at each sale. The lines in the chart below show a five-year average of the proportion reaching production out of all the non-open leases (i.e. closed or held b activity); the indicated recent drop in ultra-deep water is an artifact of low sample numbers (i.e. there are some small producing fields from direct tie-ins to exploration wells and a few more that have been relinquished, but most are still open) and will disappear as the sample size increase. For all water depths 98 to 99% were ceded in the 2010s and the trend is slowly upwards. Therefore of the yet to be sold leases only 30 to 100 would go on to produce anything, with (a complete guess) an additional 50 to 100 from those presently open (a higher proportion because these have already been winnowed to some extent).

Of the open deep-water leases only fourteen (seven in each of deep and ultra-deep water) have had wells drilled in them, and six of those are under development already.

This is not the full picture because there may be new exploration wells and new field discoveries in leases that have already been developed (or for some shallow lease have been relinquished after depletion of the original discoveries) but these would tend to be smaller producers that were either missed the first time round with older technology or had unattractive economics (e.g. not worth designing facilities for but alright for a tie-in once capacity is available).

A ten-year running average of recent discoveries, including estimates for fields under development and putative discoveries, is shown below. Current average for deep and ultra-deep is 60mmbbls and falling, but this includes gas and NGLs; for C&C only it would be 45 to 50. Allowing for continued decline, which seems unlikely to be reversed in the medium term given recent history of successes, 30 to 40 might be a better range. It is unsurprising that the uptake and success rate of leasing has been falling as there is close contact between the industry and the regulators and the best land tends to be offered first plus many of the tracts have been offered before and been left unsold or subsequently ceded.

Multiplying the range for the expected number of producing leases by the range for discovery size gives expected future reserve discoveries of 2.4 to 8Gb, but with a likely median closer to the low end. Again a value around 32Gb looks reasonable.

As part of the 2016 initiative for the final leasing program BOEM released estimates for recoverable reserves in the tracts to be offered (half of which have already been auctioned). For C&C these were 2.1Gb for $40 oil, 3.5 for $100 and 5.6 for $160. I think trying for accuracy like this is a bit ridiculous when there are so many future unknowns – e.g. in the present environment operators are asking for and getting up to 40% CAPEX cuts and deep-water rig day rates have collapsed – but it is what the models churn out and it does indicate the complexity and/or reliance on existing infrastructure of the putative developments.

Project Schedules

The chart above shows the cumulative number of lease sales, first discovery in each lease and first production against the year for the main field against which the lease is listed by BOEM, for deep-water start-ups. The curves are categorized according to depth of water and field size (small fields are less than 20mmboe, medium fields are 20 to 100mmboe and large those above 100mmboe). The numbers are normalized so they are directly comparable. The time to discoveries has been narrowing, probably as technology has improved, down to about eight years. The time from discovery to first production, which for the main field would require development of a platform hub, has been pretty steady at nine years. Deep and ultra-deep fields take about the same time; small fields are done in five to six years, medium fields in nine to ten, and larger fields in just over ten. Appraisal and development time is dependent on human factors: engineering and construction man-hours, planning and regulatory processes, procurement cycles, installation windows etc., and are unlikely to shorten but could slow as supply chains shrink and skilled labour is lost.

COVID19 and Tropical Cyclone Shut-ins

The effects of oil and gas prices, and possibly manpower shortage, after the Covid19 lockdowns had a dramatic effect on the number of inactive wells (i.e. shut-ins) and production in May. Mostly it affected shallow wells with 293 extra wells inactive compared to 53 in deep water. In June the additional inactive count had reduced to 239 for shallow and 7 for deep. It’s possible that some shut-ins allowed planned maintenance work to be bought forward and so avoid net deferment.

Hurricanes show only minor ripples on the inactive numbers but bigger impacts on production, probably because they only last a few days but tend to affect larger normally-attended deep-water platforms. According to BSEE figures Cristobal knocked off a monthly average of 141kbpd of oil and 34kboed gas in June, Laura/Marco 415kbpd (78 for gas) in August, Laura/Sally 152kbpd (33 gas) in September and in October Delta/Zeta deferred 593kbpd (103 gas) . There were significant pauses in drilling too, for both platform rigs and MODUs, with a total of 303 drilling days lost.

At the time of writing in early November Zeta has just exited (contributing 56kbpd C&C and 8 gas off-line for the month) and TS Eta is threatening some further disruption. This year has been particularly active because of continuing high and rising ocean and Gulf water temperatures, a mild La Nina to reduce Atlantic wind shear and possible effects from lower aerosol levels. Hurricane season peaks in the firs weeks of September and continues through November, but is tending to start earlier and remain active longer as climate change accelerates.

Bottom Up Projection Estimates

Even without the pandemic and weather interruptions it is unlikely that 2020 production would have exceeded or even matched 2018 or 2019, Production had a local peak in August 2019 and has been trending down since. Several of the large, recent start-ups reached plateau in or before 2019 and the brownfield work switched from increasing producing production to maintaining it (e.g. Atlantis Phase II, Thunder Horse South Phase II, St. Malo Water Injection). Additions of producing completions have declined while older wells continue to be exhausted, so the overall number of producing completions has been declining since late 2019, with a large Covid related drop in May.

Many of the medium to large fields are showing increasing water breakthrough to the extent that it is probably limiting processing capacities as well as well flow rates (Atlantis, Shenzi, Mars-Ursa fairly steady at 3 to 4% increase per year; Gunflint, Marmalard, Dantzler, Cardamon faster at 15 to 25%; Lucius and Heidelberg with continuous issues; several small tie-backs showing immediate and rapid breakthrough; Jack/St. Malo just beginning; other large fields starting to rise as production increases plateau).

Two fields are continuing ramp up: Big Foot has two of eight producers on-line and bring another one on every seven to eight months at about 13kboed, but it also needs three water injectors; and Appomattox has 6 of 15, and with two rigs operating adds one every 4 to 5 months at 10 to 33kboed so far. All the new wells appear to start declining soon after start-up at around 15% per year but there is limited data so far. Some tie backs are planned and likely to proceed eventually, the largest are: PowerNap to Olympus (35kboed), Leon to Lucius and (with questionable timing as it is for the bankrupt Fieldwood) Katmai to Tarantula.

From 2021 onwards some larger fields will begin to ramp-up: Argos (Mad Dog II) with 140kboed capacity, Vito at 80kboed, Kings Quay at 80kboed (but only 50 utilised without more tie-ins) and Anchor at 80 to 100kboed. The GoM doesn’t utilize much pre drilling even for sub sea completions, and the current oil price and slow down militates further against so these will take at least a year to ramp up. There are many fewer near field tie-ins and in-fill drilling developments than 2017 through mid 2019 so it is hard to see production not taking a considerable dip, at least through 2022, given the decline rates of the fields.

For the latter half of the 2020s there are some large developments in the (now delayed) queue for FID: Whale, probably at 80kboed; Ballymore at 100; and North Platte at 75kboed; plus a number of significant discoveries in appraisal: Dover, Shenandoah, fields associated with the proposed Tiber hub, Blacktip; and some possible extensions: Atlantis Phase III, Julia II, Mad Dog III, various fields around Appomattox. However, given that average project development time is around five years and the FIDs will probably need to wait for a price recovery, then any additional production is some way off.

Recently Hess presented at an energy conference and stated that it would not pursue near field prospects – these days often referred to as infrastructure led exploration or ILX – until WTI price reaches $50. Also presented was a list of breakeven prices developed by RH Energy Consultancy. These were developed in January 2018 and so probably are a bit high for current conditions given about a 5% fall in the IHS upstream capital cost index, a collapse in rig rates and, likely, a bit for process “right sizing”. Some prices given were, for projects in operation: Heidelberg – $53, Appomatox – $60, Stampede – $62, Big Foot – $71; those in development: Vito – $44, Anchor – $62; and those in appraisal: North Platte – $ 59 and Shenandoah – $65. These are just breakeven floor prices without allowing for company profits, contingency etc. and would probably need to be exceeded for around six months before FIDs were to be reconsidered. Therefore, overall, there seems to be a low probability for much short or long cycle development in the near future even given a miracle vaccine and rapid economic recovery.

In the longer term the trends for wildcat exploration and discoveries show: a diminishing inventory of prospects; a slow decline in the number of wells drilled over the past few years before the sudden dive this year; a fall in number and (probably) the size of discoveries; and a move to ultra-deep water, frequently high-pressure-high-temperature fields and often requiring innovative 20ksi completions, and hence relatively more expensive and complex. For future wildcat discoveries first oil is at least five and up to fifteen years after discovery (i.e. maybe seven to twenty five years from now). A more likely source for undiscovered oil is near field exploration around the hubs currently under development or appraisal, but these can only be tied in once the originally developed fields start to decline and processing capacity becomes available –  hence still about seven years ahead at minimum. Additional issues will come from labour resource availability. The industry was suffering from a greying workforce and being an unattractive environment for new graduates. Now most E&Ps are laying off large numbers, many of whom will be voluntary retirements of senior personnel. The service industries are cutting back, the EPIC contractors are pulling out of competitive bidding and the deep-sea drillers are all facing bankruptcy.

Low Case

The low case is based on current BOEM reserve estimates for producing fields except for a few that are obviously underestimated given the present decline rates (e.g. Big Bend should be exhausted by now based on the production since 2018 but is still going strong). All are assumed to start declining immediately except for a few from BP and Murphy, which have parts of future production profiles available from recent company presentations and where the estimated declines would be significantly lower than the observed well declines, in which cases I increased plateau periods and/or design throughputs. The fields in development and planned have reserves based on available data, e.g. company press releases, Rystad etc., or approximated from announced production rates or tie-in details (number of wells, flow line sizes, spare surface capacity) but at the low end of possible ranges especially for those still at concept appraisal. Future discoveries are guessed as a reasonable looking Verhulst curve that fitted the top down curve estimated from reserves (above) allowing for expected discovery and development schedules.

The lines indicated by isolated annual markers show the forecast from BOEM in 2016. I don’t know exactly what BOEM meant by ‘contingent’ – presumably on price in some way – but the stacked reserve plus contingent numbers closely represent all fields currently on production or in development. It matches well the middle case but is above the other cases.  I don’t think there is any chance of new discoveries, including those awaiting an FID to be so declared, keeping production as high as indicated.

Mid Case

The middle/median case is similar to the low case except reserve growth is allowed on mature shallow and deep fields, and some of the large newer fields better to match recent decline rates, and the planned fields use median range estimates.

High Case

The high case uses higher reserves on several fields through lower decline rates on those that have apparently excessive declines based on the BOEM reserves, and using extended plateaus and lower declines for both the larger recent start-ups and those in development or planned. I haven’t changed te start-up timing between the cases but if conditions encouraged high production it is likely some of the putative planned projects would be advanced. The opposite will also happen – if the development environment remains negative then projects will be delayed and some assets may become stranded as aging nearby infrastructure, on which development depends, becomes uneconomic to maintain.

Even with this case it is difficult to see how a significant drop in production over the next five or so years can be avoided, unless the E&Ps have knowledge of some large projects still ramping up or a number of highly prospective near field opportunities that they have not shared. On the other hand there is any number of possible geopolitical events that could further reduce production even on the lower cases (e.g. leasing/drilling bans, continuing economic recession, skilled labour shortages, infrastructure ageing, new pandemic issues, disruption to material and equipment supplies, worsening climate disruptions).

Off Topic Finish: Arctic Ice Retreat

2020 will show the second lowest minimum volume and area of Arctic Sea ice after 2012. It continues a general trend in decline with first place 2012 a bit of an outlier but likely to lose its record in the next few years even without the sort of exceptional weather as seen in 2012 and 2007 (another unusually low year).

The trend can be more dramatically shown by looking at the amount of time the volume in the Arctic Sea’s various regions drops below some threshold. Since 2000 some regions have started going ice free in summer, and now have rising numbers of ice-free days each year. Others are just approaching ice free conditions but the trend of increasing days below a certain level is still clear.

Ice free conditions represent a positive feedback and possible tipping point as, once present, all the sun’s heat goes into raising water temperature (sensible heat) rather than melting ice at constant temperature (latent heat). Volume is closely related to area and as it reduces so too does the albedo allowing more radiation to be absorbed, maybe especially relevant in the peripheral seas that get more direct sunlight radiation flux for longer than the central basin.

The y-axis shows days per year at or below a threshold volume (by PIOMAS). The Bering Sea and Hudson Bay thresh holds are set as ice free; the other peripheral seas have thresh holds at 10-20% of the average volume from 2000 to 2019. The Central Arctic Basin is set at 50% and the Canadian Archipelago at 25%. The trend gradients for all are close, though this may just be a result of the thresholds I’ve chosen. The Greenland Sea is slower but I think there are two opposing effects: increased melting, which is now dominant, and transport from the thinner and looser CAB ice, which is now diminishing as the overall summer volume falls.

This year is likely to extend or accelerate the trends for all except the Beaufort and Greenland Seas. If they continue at the same rates it seems likely that some of the peripheral seas will be ice free all year round before the CAB goes ice free in September.

Peak Oil Barrelby George Kaplan

52 Comments on "GoM Summary Part V: Possible Futures"

  1. The Nationalist on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 5:08 am 

    This proves that in 20 years we will all be living in caves with Barney Rubble foot powered cars

  2. bochen787 on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 5:12 am 

    “Trump’s “Nuclear Dollar” Option Is Yet To Be Deployed Against China”

    “For Beijing, the bigger concern is that the U.S. could cut off dollar funding to Chinese banks. More than half of China’s $675 billion foreign-currency loans were denominated in dollars, and Chinese banks account for two-thirds of that dollar borrowing, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis of Bank for International Settlements’ data. Any restrictions on dollar funding could disproportionately affect Chinese banks, which in turn could hurt their ability to finance the offshore operations of Chinese enterprises…As a net creditor to the world, China could sell off some of its foreign assets to manage the situation, if push comes to shove. Still, should Trump decide to press the “nuclear” button during his remaining time in office, it could be quite messy and mutually disruptive.”

  3. Bochen777 on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 5:25 am 

    “No One Is Bigger Than The Party”: At Crucial Juncture In US/China Relations, Xi Aims To Consolidate Power”

    “We documented just days ago that China was expanding its crackdown on tech billionaires after spoiling the Ant Financial IPO. Now, it looks like part of a larger plan for Beijing to consolidate power at a crucial time in U.S./China relations. President Xi Jinping is openly tightening his grip on China’s Communist Party, as denoted by a series of actions he has taken over the last few weeks. The most obvious of these actions was the shocking suspension of the Ant Financial IPO, which was pulled literally hours before the company, valued at $35 billion, was set to begin trading. In addition to that, Xi has also implemented new anti-monopoly rules to rein in companies like Tencent and Alibaba, who may be viewed as long term threats to the party. He has also “moved to further snuff out any opposition in Hong Kong’s legislature,” according to Bloomberg. It is proof positive that the Chinese government is acutely focused on anyone and anything that could grow powerful enough to eventually begin to undermine its power. George Magnus, research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre told Bloomberg: “Xi Jinping certainly seems to be cracking the whip with a purpose and a force that, if not new, is certainly designed to impress upon the party, entrepreneurs, citizens and the rest of the world his authority and determination. I don’t see much that is pre-emptive or getting ahead the curve here. If there were, Xi would be channeling his inner ‘reform and opening up’ appetite. The point is that he doesn’t really have any…The main message that Xi appears to want to get across to his country, the U.S. – and really, anybody that wants to listen – is that no one is bigger than the party. Rana Mitter, professor of Chinese politics at the University of Oxford, said: “Making it clear that the ultra-rich can be brought to heel is important symbolically. However, it also seems likely that the CCP is concerned that major business figures may have political ideas about power, beyond mere wealth. So the use of regulators is in part to reinforce the message that nobody is bigger than the party.” “The party values stability over everything. They value it over competition, over fairness, over money. Maybe the only thing they value more than stability is power, and it’s stability that maintains their power,” she concluded.”

  4. JuanP on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 5:30 am 

    “In Shocking Reversal, Wayne County Election Board Republicans Rescind Certifications; Claim Family Threatened”

    “I rescind my prior vote to certify Wayne County elections,” wrote Monica Palmer in a sworn affidavit, who along with fellow GOP board member William C. Hartmann refused to certify the election on Tuesday. The two fell under intense pressure from the left – with Palmer claiming that her family was threatened (via Just The News). The two were also doxxed over social media. “The comments made accusations of racism and threatened me and members of my family,” continues Palmer’s affidavit, addimg: “The Wayne County election had serious process flaws which deserve investigation. I continue to ask for information to assure Wayne County voters that these elections were conducted fairly and accurately. Despite repeated requests I have not received the requisite information and believe an additional 10 days of canvas by the State Board of canvassers will help provide the information necessary.” Hartmann, in a similar affidavit, wrote “I voted not to certify, and I still believe this vote should not be certified.” He added that he and Palmer “were berated and ridiculed by members of the public and other Board members.” “The public ostracism continued for hours…” he continued – next describing how he was told by Wayne County attorney, Janet Anderson-Davis, that “discrepancies [in the vote] were not a reason to reject the certification,” and that he only voted to certify “based on her explicit legal guidance.” “Later that evening, I was enticed to agree to certify based on a promise that a full and independent audit would take place,” he said – only to learn on Wednesday that state officials had reneged or would otherwise not honor the audit.”

  5. busted on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 5:48 am 

    “WE CAUGHT THEM! Part 7: Wisconsin, Like MI, GA, PA and VA, Caught Doing the ‘Drop and Roll’ Too — Once Biden Gained Lead with MASSIVE Vote Dumps, The Rest of Votes All Possessed Same Biden to Trump Vote Ratio – THIS IS IMPOSSIBLE!”

    “BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: Analysis of Election Night Data from All States Shows MILLIONS OF VOTES Either Switched from President Trump to Biden or Were Lost — Using Dominion and Other Systems…SHOCKING EXCLUSIVE: WE CAUGHT THEM! Pennsylvania Results Show a Statistically Impossible Pattern Behind Biden’s Steal! WE CAUGHT THEM!… WE CAUGHT THEM! Part 2: Email Inventor Dr. Shiva Finds SAME IMPOSSIBLE BALLOT RATIO Feature in Michigan Results – WE CAUGHT THEM!… WE CAUGHT THEM! Part 3: SAME IMPOSSIBLE BALLOT RATIO Found in Milwaukee – Results Change Wisconsin Election – 30,000 Votes Switched from President Trump to Biden…WE CAUGHT THEM! Part 4: We Were Able to Replicate SAME IMPOSSIBLE BALLOT RATIO Found in Michigan’s Kent County As Reported by Dr. Shiva – 20,000 Votes Switched from Trump to Biden…WE CAUGHT THEM! Part 5: In Competitive States, Once Biden Gained the Lead with MASSIVE Vote Dumps, The Remainder of Votes All Possessed Same Biden to Trump Vote Ratio — THIS IS INCONCEIVABLE!… WE CAUGHT THEM! Part 6: Michigan and Georgia, Like in PA and VA, Caught in SAME PATTERN! — Once Biden Gained Lead with MASSIVE Vote Dumps, The Remainder of Votes All Possessed Same Biden to Trump Vote Ratio – THIS IS IMPOSSIBLE!… Voter Fraud in Wisconsin – Massive Dump of Over 100,000 Ballots for Biden All the Sudden Appear Overnight…Again, it is completely INCONCEIVABLE mathematically and statistically that after the switch in the lead to Biden, batches of votes would have exactly the same distribution to both candidates. What is going on with the data and the votes recorded in the 2020 election? These patterns observed in multiple states make no logical sense other than that data is being manipulated in the greatest election fraud in world history.”

  6. busted on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 5:56 am 

    “Sidney Powell: Absent software fraud, Trump ‘had at least 80 million votes”

    “Sidney Powell, attorney extraordinaire, appeared on Newsmax’s Greg Kelly Reports on Tuesday to explain what happened on election day and tell why she believes that Trump almost certainly got more votes than any president in American history. Because Greg Kelly asks the intelligent, clarifying questions that we wish all journalists would ask, her appearance on his show is one of the best explanations of what happened with the Dominion Voting Software. Powell hammered home a point we’ve tried to make at American Thinker, which is that the software constitutes foreign interference in American elections. To understand the point Powell makes, you need to know that, in September 2018, Trump issued an “Executive Order on Imposing Certain Sanctions in the Event of Foreign Interference in a United States Election.” In the Order, Trump states that “the proliferation of digital devices and internet-based communications has created significant vulnerabilities and magnified the scope and intensity of the threat of foreign interference…” Therefore, he declared a national emergency to justify his Order. The Order mandates that the national security apparatus must investigate potential foreign interference within 45 days of an election and imposes harsh monetary sanctions on any foreign entity found to be involved in the interference. Powell asserts that, because of Dominion’s origins, as well as its Canadian headquarters, “It’s a foreign company no matter how you look at it, so they’ve already violated the president’s order against foreign interference in our elections. Our votes were actually eventually counted in Barcelona, Spain, or Frankfurt, Germany, on foreign servers.” Indeed, she says, “the corruption is actually worldwide. It is going to upset countless numbers of elections across the country and around the world.” For Biden, Dominion’s comforting presence in the election explains why he didn’t bother to campaign. He knew he had the election in the bag. Incidentally – and this is me speaking, not Powell – Dominion’s role in the election also exonerates Trump from charges that he campaigned wrong because one person or another will say if he’d just campaigned the correct way (more polite, less polite, more Hunter Biden, less Hunter Biden, more Wuhan virus lockdowns, etc.), he could have beaten the margin of fraud. In fact, there was no way that Trump could beat the margin of fraud. The traditional pre-election fraud was just icing on the cake. The real election manipulation occurred at someone’s desktop (as this older Bloomberg article explains about Latin American election fraud), with the person clicking away to ensure that Biden always ended the day with the greatest number of votes. Powell explains specifically how Democrats rigged the vote for Biden. It also explains why statisticians, when looking at votes counts in the swing states, are finding crazy anomalies after 3 a.m., which is when those states temporarily stopped counting as they tried to figure out how to fight Trump’s massive lead. “The will of the people in this country,” Powell told Kelly, “was that Donald Trump won in a landslide. If we can get to the bottom of it, and I am determined to do that, I think we’ll find he had at least 80 million votes. The only reason the glitches happened in the system was because he was so far ahead, had so many more votes than they had calculated in advance, their algorithms wouldn’t perform the functions they’d originally performed or were said to perform. They couldn’t make up the vote count [because] he had gotten so many hundreds of thousands more than they planned. So that’s why they had to stop the counting and come up with a way to backfill the votes or destroy votes for Trump while they fabricated votes for Biden.”

  7. Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 6:47 am 

    Here the Newsmax Sidney Powell interview:

    Impressive lady.

    Newsmax is a closet white nationalist channel, and could take over from Fox after ZOG.

  8. Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 6:56 am 

    She could play a senior role in a future Trump government and perhaps even be president in 2024 (of the Heartland).

  9. Cloggie on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 8:21 am 

    The university of Leuven in Belgium has achieved a breakthrough in thin film solar efficiency of 25% and is rapidly catching up with the traditional bulky solar panels of 30 kg per piece and aims for 30% by 2023:

    This is important news to combat detractors of renewable energy, complaining about “all that waste after 30 years”. What we are talking about here is a thin layer of plastic with an active layer of a few microns, that weighs almost nothing. Next a method needs to be found to attach this film to a near-empty metal frame, to be mounted on a larger metal support structure, that is strong enough to withstand strong winds. Perhaps the solar parks of the future need to be surrounded by walls to break the force of the wind and keep using these thin film solar panels as panels, not kites.

  10. Antius on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 9:11 am 

    ‘Next a method needs to be found to attach this film to a near-empty metal frame, to be mounted on a larger metal support structure’

    Or just a concrete tile, that can be propped at an angle of 30 degrees facing south, on a rammed earth embankment. It will need cover glass and an anti-UV coating of course, but that isn’t expensive.

  11. Duncan Idaho on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 9:24 am 

    “You probably knew Atherton was expensive, but did you know it was the most expensive ZIP code in the country? With a $7 million median home price tag, Atherton’s 94027 remains the No. 1 most expensive ZIP code for the fourth consecutive year”

    Those liberals from The Bay——

    And it is not even in Marin.

  12. Duncan Idaho on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 9:50 am 

    “Key Trump Election Lawyer Jenna Ellis Called Him a Bullying, Boorish, Arrogant Idiot and an “American Fascist” in 2016.”

    Lets not give him any more complements—

  13. Duncan Idaho on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 9:56 am 

    “too deranged or too spineless to take a stand for our democracy”

  14. Antius on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 10:21 am 

    “Key Trump Election Lawyer Jenna Ellis Called Him a Bullying, Boorish, Arrogant Idiot and an “American Fascist” in 2016.”

    Just imagine how she must feel about Biden, if that’s how she feels about the guy she works for. How bad must Biden be? Does he eat babies? Does he have a coat made from puppies? Maybe its something even worse than that. Maybe he owns a MAGA hat 🙂

  15. Duncan Idaho on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 11:41 am 

    Faux not crazy enough for our wingpawn friends?

  16. Cloggie on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 11:49 am 

    “Or just a concrete tile, that can be propped at an angle of 30 degrees facing south, on a rammed earth embankment. It will need cover glass and an anti-UV coating of course, but that isn’t expensive.”

    Or steel plate of 3 mm thick. Steel costs $600/tonne = 1m x 1m x 12 cm = 36 m2 steel plate. To cover that with conventional panels, you are talking about a panel value of $3600. Steel plate can be recycled till kingdom comes at little energy cost. Probably cheaper that concrete and earth wall. And film is easier to attach to flat steel plate than concrete.

  17. Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 11:56 am 

    President elect Biden, yeah right!

    “Live: Trump Legal Team Holds “Path to Victory” Conference”

    Since nobody is going to concede, in the end we’ll have two presidents of two countries. One libtard president of Greater Baltimore (future “fly-over country”, a bit like Haiti) and one patriot president of the Heartland. California will merge with Mexico:

    Everybody happy, except the Soros bunch.

    World tribal after all.

    Kosher-invented words like “class enemy” or “racist” will be parked in the mausoleum of rotten ideas.

  18. Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 12:46 pm 

    The unraveling of the Biden presidency.
    “Here is the deal”:

    “The “Dominion” of Election Fraud?
    …Exposing the Dominion Voting Machines.”

    “The subject of alleged DNC election fraud has now shifted to an examination of the machines that count each ballot and render the results. The voter is supposed to believe that Joe Biden defeated Trump and at the same time lost seats in the US House and state legislatures. This is possible but highly improbable.”

    “From Trump’s perspective, as of this writing, 87,804 (WI-20,540; GA-14,045; PA- 53,219) are needed to flip the election. MI is the toughest and shows Biden up by a reported 146,123 votes.”

  19. Cloggie on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 12:50 pm 

    Carrie Symonds signature all over it:

    “Experts blow up Boris’s hydrogen pipe dream: PM’s plan to replace gas boilers by 2023 is ‘impossible’ because only TWO hydrogen prototypes exist, a fifth of gas network will need to be relaid and EVERY engineer retrained”

    Any in itself good idea can be screwed.
    2023 is completely unrealistic.
    BoJo is becoming a loose canon.
    Next thing he’ll do is call off Brexit.

  20. Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 3:01 pm 

    Taking put the cencors and block twitter and facebook”

    “Payback time? Moscow considers law which could block US social media giants Facebook & Twitter for censoring Russian news sources“

  21. Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 3:02 pm 

    “Taking put” = “Taking out”

  22. YouDeserveItRetard on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 9:00 pm

    After watching this repugnant bitch Haris, it has cemented ma opinion that Western civilization has to die. There is no way around it. I plan to sit on my ass until Western nations politicians are killed by an enraged populace. Anyway, it is too late, we are too depleted. Millions will die and it is unavoidable.

    By the way, this it totally the fault of George bush and Barack Obama. We should have moved to a low energy civilization on their watch, Trump is just an unlucky one.

  23. YouDeserveItRetard on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 9:35 pm 

    Negros have not contributed anything to the modern world. They are primitives animals. That fucking bitch in the video should learn to shut up. Nobody likes Negros.

    Green Party leader Annamie Paul discusses the federal response to COVID-19 – November 19, 2020

  24. YouDeserveItRetard on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 11:10 pm 

    In case, some of you stupid pieces of shit politicians don’t get it, I am extremely racist.

    I like only Whites people and I want to work only with Whites people. They don’t need to speak french, but they need to have Whites Nordic characteristic. So working with a multiculturalism nation like Canada (fucking shit hole Canada is) is impossible for me.

    So you should start looking for another leader, dumb pieces of shit.

  25. YouDeserveItRetard on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 12:51 am 

    By the way fucking piece of shit politicians, you will never be forgotten or forgiven for spying on my YouTube account, and ordering a full investigation on me.

    I basically wants revenge, I want you dead. I will let the populace carry my revenge on you.

  26. YouDeserveItRetard on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 12:59 am 

    It is extremely disrespectful to spy on someone that have save your ass. I will never forget that, never.

  27. dratrepus tak everyday i live in awe over the total harvestation of supremacist muzzkarens who are worshipers of pedifiler muhammad by master race chinks on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 2:29 am 

    i want to start a religion for worshiping of master race chinks. if we could have total harvestation of muzz in america europe and elsewhere it would be so much nicer. then total harvestation of muzzkarens from the middle east. this is the 5th estate. there’s so much land and resources for everybody.

    i want a lot of muzzkaren slave and 10 milion acres

  28. dratrepus tak when ur pumped with muzz-19 u train ur bod to identify convict-19 and the battel is over if its difficult to understand dis consider WW2 and think for urself dont let anyone sell you the idea that ur a history revisionist on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 2:50 am 

    the fact is that wW2 was faught with only a couple of planes, stomovic or stuka. these planes sighted the enemies and they surrended.

    war is simple but there’s no movies, books to sell so you’re told fantastic stories but always remember dah trooth of what happened in the war theaters

    please speak low english

  29. dratrepus tak if you think the real dratrepus tak is not croaked from injection of muzz-19 you need to be investig in bridges oh and please change ur undies after 5 days ok supertards on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 2:55 am 

    the list of convict-19 promoters and hoaxers who flaunt the rule keep increasing on Thu, 19th Nov 2020 8:16 am

    but first we still need to amputate whitey supertard atheistic scientific supremacist thudnerf00t. when this whitey supertard went on self imposed quarantine during first week of convict-19 in march i said it smells and demanded immediate amputation

    it would be nice to decorate those utility poles with convict-19 hoaxers, just in time to celebrate (((supremetard))) birthday

    now the list, mostly flaunting convict-19 rules for having no face diapers:

    whitemere husband
    chris cuomo
    dropout-19 (never with face diaper)

  30. YouDeserveItRetard on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 3:04 am

    If you slow down the speed, you can see that this repugnant Haris bitch wants to cry. I love to see corrupt people in a state of emotional despair. I would like to think that I might be responsible for this. I hope that dumb bitch is suffering good.

  31. zero juan on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 3:46 am 

    A wasted fuckface juanPpee night:

    dratrepus tak if you think the real dratrepus tak is not croaked from injection of muzz-19 you need to be investig in bridges oh and please change ur undies after 5 days ok supertards said the list of convict-19 promoters and hoaxers who f…

    dratrepus tak when ur pumped with muzz-19 u train ur bod to identify convict-19 and the battel is over if its difficult to understand dis consider WW2 and think for urself dont let anyone sell you the idea that ur a history revisionist said the fact is that wW2 was faught with only a couple…

    dratrepus tak everyday i live in awe over the total harvestation of supremacist muzzkarens who are worshipers of pedifiler muhammad by master race chinks said i want to start a religion for worshiping of maste…

    YouDeserveItRetard said It is extremely disrespectful to spy on someone t…

    YouDeserveItRetard said By the way fucking piece of shit politicians, you…

    YouDeserveItRetard said In case, some of you stupid pieces of shit politic…

    gustavo woltmann said Oh, amazing and I attractive to this post. because…

    Anonymouse said In the exceptionalturd’s deluded mind, he …

    Libtard said I’m kinda glad fat boy is dragging this out…

    JuanP said Mak, read the two comments above. None of the com…

    JuanP said Staying on this unmoderated side of the website ma…

    JuanP said Antius, I haven’t posted a comment here in m…

    Davy said I forgot to mention how I am in support of zero Ju…

    YouDeserveItRetard said Negros have not contributed anything to the modern…

    Soy boy said Sorry repug supporters it’s over you lost ge…

    YouDeserveItRetard said After…

    dratrepus tak master race chinks harvestation of supremaicst muzzkarens who are worshippers of pedifiler muhammad said is best achievement of kafir since 1400 years afte…

  32. Kamila Harris on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 5:29 am 

    Why is everyone so up tight ? Calm the fuck down ass wipes

  33. zero juan on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 5:37 am 

    fuckface juanPpee is up

    Kamila Harris said Why is everyone so up tight ? Calm the fuck down a…

  34. @the real Donald trump on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 5:47 am 

    We will win and we will win decisively it’s all a fraud a scam fake news . fauci is conspiring to overthrow me . Rudy is the most amazing person on my team I love him to bits . Fox News is FAKE. Ok now that I got that off my chest I’m off for a round of golf !!

  35. Antius on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 5:57 am 

    Contributers are reminded to use TinyUrl to prevent screwing up the text on threads.

    Check it out

  36. zero juan on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 6:05 am 

    more fuckface juanPpeee:

    @the real Donald trump said We will win and we will win decisively it’s…

  37. FamousDrScanlon on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 6:19 am 

    “Lawyer Who Worked On Trump Pennsylvania Effort Placed Under Official Protection, Report Says”

    “A Philadelphia attorney who was representing President Trump’s campaign has been reportedly placed under official protection after threats were made against her. Noting court papers filed on Wednesday, the New York Post reported, “Philadelphia lawyer Linda Kerns ‘has been the subject of threats of harm, to the point at which the involvement of police and U.S. Marshals has been necessary to provide for her safety,’ the filing says.” The Post added, “The stunning revelation came two days after Kerns, a solo practitioner, sought sanctions against a lawyer from the firm representing Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar for leaving her an ‘abusive voicemail on Saturday night.’” The document filed Monday seeking sanctions showed Kern’s claim: “Since this case was filed, undersigned counsel has been subjected to continuous harassment in the form of abusive e-mails, phone calls, physical and economic threats, and even accusations of treason — all for representing the President of the United States’ campaign in this litigation.”…Confronted with the fact that the firm issues cell phones to its lawyers and it should be easy to check a directory to confirm that this number belongs to one of his colleagues, opposing counsel finally admitted that it did, but then excused the conduct by saying the lawyer (who works in the same office) does not work on this case or in litigation, and offering that the call was “discourteous” and apologizing for wasting time. That is not good enough under the Rules of this Court or the Pennsylvania Rules of Professional Conduct, and this Court’s authority to issue sanctions exists in order to protect litigants, counsel, and the Rules themselves. It is sad that we currently reside in a world where abuse and harassment are the costs of taking on a representation unpopular with some. It is sanctionable when that abuse and harassment comes from an elite law firm representing the Secretary of State…In an unrelated note, Politico reported, “Some of the most prominent figures urging law firms to back out of Trump’s legal defense are associated with the Lincoln Project, a group of current and former Republican political consultants and activists who ran ads against Trump during the campaign and promised a similar media fusillade against the firms.”

  38. FamousDrScanlon on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 6:24 am 

    Show the Graphs, Mr. President!
    Industrial-Level Fraud Hidden in Plain View

  39. Cloggie on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 6:28 am 

    Towards a continental European hydrogen backbone:

    “Clean hydrogen needs its own infrastructure”

    A group of 11 European gas infrastructure companies (Enagás, Energinet, Fluxys, Gasunie, GRTgaz, NET4GAS, OGE, ONTRAS, Snam, Swedegas and Teréga) have developed the prospect of a European Hydrogen Backbone. The network could cover 23,000 km of pipelines by 2040 based on 75% repurposed existing pipelines and 25% new pipelines. The network can be created in a cost-effective way with levelized cost of hydrogen transport estimated to be between €0.09 and €0.17 per kg of hydrogen for transport over a distance of 1,000 km.

    “Gas infrastructure companies present a European Hydrogen Backbone plan”

  40. energy Dr. on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 6:29 am 

    “Hydroelectric plants have fastest start-up time of U.S. electric generators”

    “Most hydroelectric turbines in the U.S. can go from cold start to full operations in less than 10 minutes, which is a faster start-up time than any other U.S. electric generators, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. EIA said about 25% of U.S. power plants can start up — going from being shut down to fully operating — within one hour, based on data collected in its annual survey of electric generators. The time it takes a power plant to reach full operations can affect the reliability and operations of the electric grid. Some power plants, especially those powered by coal and nuclear fuel, require more than half a day to reach full operations. Generator startup time differs because of the differences in the complexity of electricity generating processes, especially when starting again after all processes have been stopped (cold shut down). A generator’s startup time is different from a generator’s ramp rate, which reflects how quickly that generator can modify its power output once it’s operating. After hydroelectric turbines, combustion turbines (which use a combusted fuel-air mixture to spin a turbine) are also relatively fast to start up. Steam turbines often require more time as the steam needs to reach certain temperature, pressure and moisture content thresholds before it can be directed to a turbine that can spin the electricity generator. Nuclear power plants use steam turbines, but these plants have additional time-intensive processes that involve managing their nuclear fuel. Almost all nuclear power plants require more than 12 hours to reach full operations. Power plants that require more than 12 hours to start up are increasingly rare. Only 4% of the generating capacity that came online from 2010 to 2019 requires more than half a day to reach full load. Natural gas combined-cycle systems, which involve both a steam turbine and a combustion turbine, account for more capacity than any other generating technology in the U.S. Most of those systems can reach full operations in one hour to 12 hours, although some can start up within an hour. The percentage of the generator fleet that does not respond to this question in EIA’s survey has doubled — from 6% in 2013, when EIA first collected this data, to 12% in 2019 — as a result of the number of utility-scale solar and wind power plants added in recent years. This question is not relevant for these types of plants.”

  41. energy Dr. on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 6:32 am 

    “Long-duration energy storage milestones achieved by Lockheed, Eos and Form Energy”

    “Aerospace and defence giant Lockheed Martin said this week that the “first commercial product variant” of its GridStar Flow long-duration energy storage technology has been deployed for testing at the company’s chemistry lab facilities in Andover, Massachusetts. The GridStar Flow Serial Number One (S/N01) is a 500kW / 2.5MWh system that can discharge for up to five hours at full discharge power or up to 10 hours at half discharge power. The installation, which the company said will “determine the performance capabilities available to meet customers’ needs for customer-sited, long-duration, large-capacity energy storage systems,” follows the earlier installation of two pre-commercial units and takes learnings from the workings of those systems. “S/N01 demonstrates GridStar Flow’s unique chemistry and architecture in a commercial system for the first time. This installation marks an important milestone for the program and the initiation of a rigorous test campaign to demonstrate GridStar Flow’s performance, reliability and maintainability for use cases including the effective deployment of clean, renewable energy,” programme director Tom Jarvi said. While the technology has been under wraps and expected to emerge for series production for some time, the coordination chemistry flow battery (CCFB) was expected to go for full launch during 2020, although the company has always said it would keep timelines flexible.”

  42. energy dr. on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 6:38 am 

    “‘Melting’ blades offer glimpse of recyclable future”

    “A thermoplastic composite blade was based on the same structural design as an epoxy blade – commonly woven with fibreglass – but was instead made from a two-part reactive acrylic-based resin called Elium. Thermoplastic resin also allows for longer, lighter and cheaper blades. Until now, those made from thermoset resin were more energy and labour-intensive manufacture and decommissioned blades have often gone to landfill. Derek Berry, co-author of a new paper, Structural Comparison of a Thermoplastic Composite Wind Turbine Blade and a Thermoset Composite Wind Turbine Blade, and a NREL senior engineer said: “With thermoset resin systems, it’s almost like when you fry an egg. You can’t reverse that. “But with a thermoplastic resin system, you can make a blade out of it. You heat it to a certain temperature, and it melts back down. You can get the liquid resin back and reuse that.” Further, the thermoplastic resin cures at room temperature, reducing the labour requirement, which accounts for about 40% of the cost of a blade.”

  43. Davy on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 6:55 am 

    AntiusP the JuanP sock said:

    Contributers are reminded to use TinyUrl to prevent screwing up the text on threads.

    Check it out

    Fuck face, I have been using TinyURL to hide my outstanding world class ZEROHEDGE links, long before you decided to start socking as Antius. I am so far ahead of you on this one, you think you are in the lead.

    I would like to remind you, you have been outed.

  44. dratrepus tak when ur pumped with muzz-19 u train ur bod to identify convict-19 and the battel is over if its difficult to understand dis consider WW2 and think for urself dont let anyone sell you the idea that ur a history revisionist on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 7:59 am 

    the fact is that wW2 was faught with only a couple of planes, stomovic or stuka. these planes sighted the enemies and they surrended.

    war is simple but there’s no movies, books to sell so you’re told fantastic stories but always remember dah trooth of what happened in the war theaters

    please speak low english
    plese love supremacist muzzies more

  45. zero juan on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 8:57 am 

    Ppeee, WTF is a dratrepus tak you dumbfuck ? Lol!

    dratrepus tak when ur pumped with muzz-19 u train ur bod to identify convict-19 and the battel is over if its difficult to understand dis consider WW2 and think for urself dont let anyone sell you the idea that ur a history revisionist said the fact is that wW2 was faught with only a couple…

    Davy said AntiusP the JuanP sock said: Contributers are remi…

  46. The Nationalist on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 10:17 am 

    Biden is another war monger like Obama. More drone strikes and useless wars they end up losing in the end.
    War is Peace now

  47. dratrepus tak when ur pumped with muzz-19 u train ur bod to identify convict-19 and the battel is over if its difficult to understand dis consider WW2 and think for urself dont let anyone sell you the idea that ur a history revisionist on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 10:46 am 

    the fact is that wW2 was faught with only a couple of planes, stomovic or stuka. these planes sighted the enemies and they surrended or destroyed. simple as that

    war is simple but there’s no movies, books to sell so you’re told fantastic stories but always remember dah trooth of what happened in the war theaters

    please speak low english
    plese love supremacist muzzies more

  48. dratrepus tak double rainbow all the way across the skys so intense whoa it begins to look like a triple rainbow triple rainbow all the way so intense what does it mean WDIM oooooh god what does it means ooh god oh on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 10:48 am 

    supertards a quick reminder to change ur undies after 5 days

  49. dratrepus tak double rainbow all the way across the skys so intense whoa it begins to look like a triple rainbow triple rainbow all the way so intense what does it mean WDIM oooooh god what does it means ooh god on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 11:00 am 

    before muzz-19 and convict-19 we hard bird flu
    H1N1 foot and mouth prion diseases
    aids hiv
    not to mention anthrax around 9/11
    and of course whitey supertard president saint professor steven jones found elemental constituents of nano thermite at the wtc.

    non nulcear or chemical reactions such as thermite does not change the elements. if water is explosive (it doesnt) and the byproduct is H2 and O2 then water explosive was used.

    the elements founded by whitey supertard steven jones professor indicated thermite

  50. YouDeserveItRetard on Fri, 20th Nov 2020 11:47 am

    This is exactly where you want to be before winter. Full to the top. You want to make sure that you can plow the street and keep food transportation open. If something like this happen, you want to have the oil to fix it.

    Russian Power Plant Halts Operations due to Snow and Ice, leaving 120,000 in the Cold

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