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Glimpse into dynamics of post-pandemic oil industry

Glimpse into dynamics of post-pandemic oil industry thumbnail

CAIRO – 21 January 2021: Since its discovery in 1859, oil has been the main source of energy, and main source of income for many countries. The finite resource was subject to major hits in the past three decades. The last of which took place last year. However, the sector has begun recovery paving the way for figuring out demand levels, and hence, estimating supply and investments in the sector.

 

Speculations on the Short, Medium, and Long run

 

In an event held by Reuters in December, President and CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources Scott Sheffield showcased that negative rates did not just appear in 2020 but also in 1991, 1996, 2008, and 2014. He underlined that last year’s crisis occurred due to two reasons, which are the price war and the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

With regard to demand, Sheffield argued that people are ready to travel, which will generate demand on fuel. He estimated that in 2021 Brent Crude oil can record $45 per barrel. However, it is currently nearing $55 per barrel.

 

The CEO stated that the break-even used to be $50 per barrel, and that $30 per barrel covers the dividends. Furthermore, he noted that stabilizing Brent Crude oil at $50 per barrel will require two years, so it can be achieved in either 2022 or 2023.

 

The same speculation about recovery by 2022 is shared by Executive Vice President Upstream of Cenovus Energy Norrie Ramsay.

 

Sheffield added that the market will be tighter between 2023 and 2025 because of little spending in exploration and because it will take two years to regain investors’ trust. As for access to capital, the CEO said that the private equity market is going through tough time. He also speculated that consolidations will take place.

 

President and CEO California Resources Corporation Todd Stevens said that a main factor that pushes down demand on oil is climate change and eagerness to reduce the use of fossil fuel products. Nevertheless, natural gas is still needed as well as petroleum projects, Stevens pointed out.

 

President of BHP Petroleum Geraldine Slattery estimated that demand on oil will reach a plateau in the 2030s on the medium-run. She added that the price of oil will be shaped by the supply side on the medium and long run given it is a depleting resource, and that demand still plays a pivotal role on the short run. The BHP Petroleum president highlighted that heavy vehicles compose 14 percent of demand on oil so as such percentage will fall when they are electrified. She also predicted that oil supply will decline by three percent on the short run post the pandemic.

 

Speaking of gas, Slattery showcased that gas prices will come back to balance by no earlier than 2020s as they have been declining. In that sector, there is demand on the long run, the BHP Petroleum president stipulated saying that gas “exists in abundance but good infrastructure is needed to optimize the supplying process.”

 

The Bumpy Road of Oil Corporations

 

Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Political Science and Economics at Beni Suef University Mohamed Rashed tells Business Today Egypt that the impact on oil exporting countries whose income mainly depends on the resource is embodied in the rise of budget deficits. “As a consequence, they will have to rely on their reserves causing them to deplete fast, if the duration of the lockdown is prolonged in many countries all over the world until their peoples are vaccinated,” Rashed explains.

 

The economics professor speculates that demand in the first half of 2021 will relatively stabilize because of the measures taken by OPEC+ in April 2020. The demand on oil in 2021 is estimated to be 98 million bpd. “Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia’s unilateral decision to cut production by one million bpd in February and March can induce an uptake of crude prices to approach $60 per barrel as long as the value of dollar is still weak. That can be an incentive for corporates to back down on their decisions to halt their investments and development of oil fields. Hence, we can see drilling rigs going back to work,” Rashed clarifies.

 

“The fall in oil prices definitely has a negative influence on petroleum companies’ investments in exploration works. That is because the decline in revenues compared to the rise in fixed costs of drilling will require a larger number of years to recover the drilling’s fixed costs,” the economic expert points out.

 

“The value of shares of oil corporations dropped massively and to the half in some cases because of the fall in crude oil prices. Such decline had repercussions on those corporations’ profits, and some of them endured losses making lay-offs necessary. The only chance those companies can make up for their losses is the rebound of oil prices on the medium and long run along with the rise in demand, and the decline in supply due to investment cuts,” Rashed showcases.

 

“It is very possible that consolidations will happen willingly in the sector out of oil corporates’ fear of bankruptcy and capital depletion as a consequence of accumulated losses, particularly if the duration of the pandemic gets longer. Out of crises, consolidations emerge as a way of circumventing financial collapse in any sector,” the economics professor underlines.

 

Roots of the Crisis and Collective Decisions

 

Reuters issued in August a report titled “The Future of Oil and Gas: A 2020 Market Report.” The report began by explaining the reasons the demand on oil and gas decreased. One of the reasons is that a large share of demand is held by one country, which was the origin of the pandemic. The report indicates that in 2019, China was the largest importer of oil and gas as it accounted for more than 80% of global demand. Its crude imports in 2019 went up by 11% compared to 2018. China relied on imports to cover 75% of usage, and was stockpiling in time of pricing dips. Between 2003 and 2013, China’s production of oil declined by 15% while its imports rose by 30% to record 10.12 million bpd.

 

The demand also plummeted because of the suspension of work in large construction projects, lack of investment in infrastructure, and fall of electricity loads. Goldman Sachs estimated that as of close-March, global oil demand fell by 25%.

 

Early in March, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and ten additional oil producing countries (OPEC+) wanted to cut global production by more than 15 million bpd over Q2. As such, Russia would have to reduce its production by 0.5 million bpd. Hence, it refused and oil prices dipped by 10%. In response, Saudi Arabia “introduced price discounts of between $6-8 per barrel to import customers across Europe, Asia and the US.”

 

As a consequence, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped by 20%, and moved to negative territory on April 20 for the first time ever. Failure to halt production as a result of falling prices – and by consequence depletion of storage capacity – coupled with decreasing demand, led to -$37/bbl in April.

 

On April 12, OPEC+ decided the following quoting Reuters report:

• Adjust downwards their overall crude oil production by 9.7 million bpd, starting on 1 May 2020, for an initial period of two months that concludes on 30 June 2020.

• For the subsequent period of 6 months, from 1 July 2020 to 31 December 2020, the total adjustment agreed will be 7.7 million bpd.

• It will be followed by a 5.8 million bpd adjustment for a period of 16 months, from 1 January 2021 to 30 April 2022.

• The baseline for the calculation of the adjustments is the oil production of October 2018, except for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and The Russian Federation, both with the same baseline level of 11.0 mb/d.

• The agreement will be valid until 30 April 2022, however, the extension of this agreement will be reviewed during December 2021.

 

 

By mid-May, prices hiked by 80% to be over $30 per barrel because of OPEC+ curtailments, a US campaign to reduce output by four million bpd, and a KSA initiative to decrease production by one million bpd. However, producers may increase production to benefit from rising prices in reducing deficits, the report estimates.

 

In December 2019, the price per barrel was $67.31. Later on, it kept slumping until it reached $18.38 in April. Since the following month, it has been recovering until it reached $48.52 in December 2020.

 

In the 2015 oil price crash, investments dropped by 40 percent but production increased because of the efficiencies carried out. On the contrary, the ongoing crisis is different.

 

“The 2020 crash will hit the upstream industry harder when CAPEX investment drops. Majors have already announced cuts in budgets somewhere around the 20% level, exceeding $80 billion across the sector by mid-April,” the report indicates.

 

“For producers, the easiest way to cut budgets is to not start projects, delaying that spend into the future. For sanctioned projects, companies will be looking at contracts and assess what can be cancelled. With contracts typically running lower costs of exiting, it will be projects under development that will be hit. For insight projects and oil producing assets, anything that is discretionary will likely be cut,” the report showcases.

 

 

 

Speculations on the Short, Medium, and Long run

 

In an event held by Reuters in December, President and CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources Scott Sheffield showcased that negative rates did not just appear in 2020 but also in 1991, 1996, 2008, and 2014. He underlined that last year’s crisis occurred due to two reasons, which are the price war and the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

With regard to demand, Sheffield argued that people are ready to travel, which will generate demand on fuel. He estimated that in 2021 Brent Crude oil can record $45 per barrel. However, it is currently nearing $55 per barrel.

 

The CEO stated that the break-even used to be $50 per barrel, and that $30 per barrel covers the dividends. Furthermore, he noted that stabilizing Brent Crude oil at $50 per barrel will require two years, so it can be achieved in either 2022 or 2023.

 

The same speculation about recovery by 2022 is shared by Executive Vice President Upstream of Cenovus Energy Norrie Ramsay.

 

Sheffield added that the market will be tighter between 2023 and 2025 because of little spending in exploration and because it will take two years to regain investors’ trust. As for access to capital, the CEO said that the private equity market is going through tough time. He also speculated that consolidations will take place.

 

President and CEO California Resources Corporation Todd Stevens said that a main factor that pushes down demand on oil is climate change and eagerness to reduce the use of fossil fuel products. Nevertheless, natural gas is still needed as well as petroleum projects, Stevens pointed out.

 

President of BHP Petroleum Geraldine Slattery estimated that demand on oil will reach a plateau in the 2030s on the medium-run. She added that the price of oil will be shaped by the supply side on the medium and long run given it is a depleting resource, and that demand still plays a pivotal role on the short run. The BHP Petroleum president highlighted that heavy vehicles compose 14 percent of demand on oil so as such percentage will fall when they are electrified. She also predicted that oil supply will decline by three percent on the short run post the pandemic.

 

Speaking of gas, Slattery showcased that gas prices will come back to balance by no earlier than 2020s as they have been declining. In that sector, there is demand on the long run, the BHP Petroleum president stipulated saying that gas “exists in abundance but good infrastructure is needed to optimize the supplying process.”

 

The Bumpy Road of Oil Corporations

 

Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Political Science and Economics at Beni Suef University Mohamed Rashed tells Business Today Egypt that the impact on oil exporting countries whose income mainly depends on the resource is embodied in the rise of budget deficits. “As a consequence, they will have to rely on their reserves causing them to deplete fast, if the duration of the lockdown is prolonged in many countries all over the world until their peoples are vaccinated,” Rashed explains.

 

The economics professor speculates that demand in the first half of 2021 will relatively stabilize because of the measures taken by OPEC+ in April 2020. The demand on oil in 2021 is estimated to be 98 million bpd. “Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia’s unilateral decision to cut production by one million bpd in February and March can induce an uptake of crude prices to approach $60 per barrel as long as the value of dollar is still weak. That can be an incentive for corporates to back down on their decisions to halt their investments and development of oil fields. Hence, we can see drilling rigs going back to work,” Rashed clarifies.

 

“The fall in oil prices definitely has a negative influence on petroleum companies’ investments in exploration works. That is because the decline in revenues compared to the rise in fixed costs of drilling will require a larger number of years to recover the drilling’s fixed costs,” the economic expert points out.

 

“The value of shares of oil corporations dropped massively and to the half in some cases because of the fall in crude oil prices. Such decline had repercussions on those corporations’ profits, and some of them endured losses making lay-offs necessary. The only chance those companies can make up for their losses is the rebound of oil prices on the medium and long run along with the rise in demand, and the decline in supply due to investment cuts,” Rashed showcases.

 

“It is very possible that consolidations will happen willingly in the sector out of oil corporates’ fear of bankruptcy and capital depletion as a consequence of accumulated losses, particularly if the duration of the pandemic gets longer. Out of crises, consolidations emerge as a way of circumventing financial collapse in any sector,” the economics professor underlines.

 

Roots of the Crisis and Collective Decisions

 

Reuters issued in August a report titled “The Future of Oil and Gas: A 2020 Market Report.” The report began by explaining the reasons the demand on oil and gas decreased. One of the reasons is that a large share of demand is held by one country, which was the origin of the pandemic. The report indicates that in 2019, China was the largest importer of oil and gas as it accounted for more than 80% of global demand. Its crude imports in 2019 went up by 11% compared to 2018. China relied on imports to cover 75% of usage, and was stockpiling in time of pricing dips. Between 2003 and 2013, China’s production of oil declined by 15% while its imports rose by 30% to record 10.12 million bpd.

 

The demand also plummeted because of the suspension of work in large construction projects, lack of investment in infrastructure, and fall of electricity loads. Goldman Sachs estimated that as of close-March, global oil demand fell by 25%.

 

Early in March, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and ten additional oil producing countries (OPEC+) wanted to cut global production by more than 15 million bpd over Q2. As such, Russia would have to reduce its production by 0.5 million bpd. Hence, it refused and oil prices dipped by 10%. In response, Saudi Arabia “introduced price discounts of between $6-8 per barrel to import customers across Europe, Asia and the US.”

 

As a consequence, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped by 20%, and moved to negative territory on April 20 for the first time ever. Failure to halt production as a result of falling prices – and by consequence depletion of storage capacity – coupled with decreasing demand, led to -$37/bbl in April.

 

On April 12, OPEC+ decided the following quoting Reuters report:

• Adjust downwards their overall crude oil production by 9.7 million bpd, starting on 1 May 2020, for an initial period of two months that concludes on 30 June 2020.

• For the subsequent period of 6 months, from 1 July 2020 to 31 December 2020, the total adjustment agreed will be 7.7 million bpd.

• It will be followed by a 5.8 million bpd adjustment for a period of 16 months, from 1 January 2021 to 30 April 2022.

• The baseline for the calculation of the adjustments is the oil production of October 2018, except for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and The Russian Federation, both with the same baseline level of 11.0 mb/d.

• The agreement will be valid until 30 April 2022, however, the extension of this agreement will be reviewed during December 2021.

 

By mid-May, prices hiked by 80% to be over $30 per barrel because of OPEC+ curtailments, a US campaign to reduce output by four million bpd, and a KSA initiative to decrease production by one million bpd. However, producers may increase production to benefit from rising prices in reducing deficits, the report estimates.

 

In December 2019, the price per barrel was $67.31. Later on, it kept slumping until it reached $18.38 in April. Since the following month, it has been recovering until it reached $48.52 in December 2020.

 

In the 2015 oil price crash, investments dropped by 40 percent but production increased because of the efficiencies carried out. On the contrary, the ongoing crisis is different.

 

“The 2020 crash will hit the upstream industry harder when CAPEX investment drops. Majors have already announced cuts in budgets somewhere around the 20% level, exceeding $80 billion across the sector by mid-April,” the report indicates.

 

“For producers, the easiest way to cut budgets is to not start projects, delaying that spend into the future. For sanctioned projects, companies will be looking at contracts and assess what can be cancelled. With contracts typically running lower costs of exiting, it will be projects under development that will be hit. For insight projects and oil producing assets, anything that is discretionary will likely be cut,” the report showcases.

egypt today



36 Comments on "Glimpse into dynamics of post-pandemic oil industry"

  1. DT on Mon, 25th Jan 2021 5:34 pm 

    What humans need on planet earth is a big spike in oil “demand”. Then a huge jump in the price of a BB of crude.For an extended period of time. Then next will be a stock market dump. And finally the plunge into economic catastrophe the likes of which have never been seen before nor will there ever be another like it. Because once this final chapter of humanity rears it’s ugly head there will be no recovery, the end.

  2. makati1 on Mon, 25th Jan 2021 6:20 pm 

    DT, you are correct on most points, but the things you espouse will mostly affect the upper 40% or so of humanity. Perhaps several billion humans will hardly notice the difference.

    Obviously you are a 1st worlder who has little idea of the rest of the world. The real one. Sigh!

  3. DT on Mon, 25th Jan 2021 8:23 pm 

    Yes Makati1 I am a 1st worlder with some idea but no real life rest of the world living experience. However the rest of the world will notice when the unattended nukes melt down after no one shows up for work at the power plants. Yea, that could be an issue. Just imagine 440 some odd Fukashimas and Chernobyls across the globe lighting up the sky with ionizing radiation pouring out.

  4. makati1 on Tue, 26th Jan 2021 3:08 am 

    DT, the plants will be shut down BEFORE anyone leaves the plant. After all, they all live in its shadow and would be committing suicide if they just walked off. Think!

  5. DT on Tue, 26th Jan 2021 6:01 am 

    Makati1 I would like to “think” that would be the case. Nukes need outside grid power in order to keep the cooling vessel water circulating. It takes weeks if not months to keep the fuel rods from over heating ( if the nuke is shut down properly) Once the grid goes down so go the nukes weather someone is around or not without grid power. Six years after losing grid power and failing Fukashima is still spewing radioactive water into the environment.

  6. BLanchetEstUnMinableSansCervelle on Tue, 26th Jan 2021 9:22 am 

    These three fucking losers need to learn to shut their mouth. They humiliate themselves each time3 they speak: guidoune Guilbeault (Je ne peux pas la sentir cette criss de pute sale), Retard Lego, Blanchet need to learn to shut their mouth close.

    Écoute Blanchet, mon crise d’imbécile sans cervelle, yes will still need oil to make plastic, clothing (polyster and mylon fabric). Ferme ta gueule mon criss de minimale. Moins je te vois la face retard lego, mieux je me porte.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcRK-lpKKMg

  7. RepugnatHarrisIsTheSameSkinColorAsDogShit on Tue, 26th Jan 2021 9:43 am 

    De vaccine strategy is the stupidest thing I have ever seen. If you vaccinate people, people will demanded that you reopened touristic air travel, therefore consuming oil again. How is a vaccine strategy working for rationing oil.

    Bidet and repugnant bitch harris have assembled the most incompetent team of people ever seen in the face of the world. It is breath taking the number of incompetent they surrounded them self with.

  8. IPissOnBidetThisIsWhatBidetAreFor on Tue, 26th Jan 2021 10:14 am 

    We all about to die and this is what this stupid piece of shot of Joe Bidet cares about racial equity:

    Live: Biden Delivers Remarks Outlining His Racial Equity Agenda | NBC News

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aExMcsV6CUE

  9. FamousDrScanlon on Tue, 26th Jan 2021 12:00 pm 

    RepugnatHarris looking in the mirrior is the stupidest thing you’ve ever seen.

    Don’t tell us your beefs. No one here makes policy. Get out in the streets with your gunz-N-ammo & screaming & threats towards the government.

    Glenn Greenwald: Liberals CHEER New Domestic War On Terror

    Journalist and co-founding editor of The Intercept, Glenn Greenwald, argues that media censorship, in an effort to prevent domestic terrorism, has gone too far.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Npcr5KIS95U

  10. FuckBidetAndTheUSA on Tue, 26th Jan 2021 12:58 pm 

    I was looking at some news from the USA. This is what came to my mind

    US empire has died. It is a mental asylum. The world has to unite together and help crash this US empire to the ground. We need a new world wide leadership and the US and Israel are not up the task. The world need to look around for other nations or people for leadership. The US should be not allowed to continue to destroy everything they touched. The US is a cesspool of mental degeneracy.

  11. makati1 on Tue, 26th Jan 2021 3:28 pm 

    DT, Nuke Plants have backup power called generators and fuel for them. They will be powered down long before the generators stop. Yes, there will be spent fuel that will be deadly for a long time, but only the area around the plants will be a “No GO”. A ‘melt down’ is a different animal than a normal shut down. Fukushima is NOT a valid comparison. Think!

    Fear mongering is a waste of time with me. I’m not afraid of dying. After all, it’s just “lights out” and nothing. Only those left behind will know or care.

  12. DT on Tue, 26th Jan 2021 11:41 pm 

    Sorry If you feel I am trying to scare people. Speaking frankly about these kinds of topics do have a tendency to put people in the awkward position of facing reality and being frightened. Yes nukes have back up generation, most use diesel fuel. How much fuel do these plants have on hand if the grid goes down for an extended time? A week or Two? maybe? Assuming the nukes can be shut down in time, the nuke fuel is still hot for quite a while needing the grid tied power or backup generation to keep the cooling water at a proper level. Fukashima failed because the power plants lost both backup and grid power. 440 nukes is a lot to shut down expecting a smooth fail safe operation.

  13. makati1 on Wed, 27th Jan 2021 2:41 am 

    DT, yes it would be a problem, but doable. 440 or 440,000, it would take the same time to do so. As for the spent fuel, yep, there could be a problem that requires everyone to relocate to some “safe” distance. Maybe 20 miles from ground zero? I guess we will just have to wait and see what happens.

  14. Cloggie on Wed, 27th Jan 2021 10:29 am 

    More glimpses into the dynamics of the post-pandemic oil industry:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2021/01/27/first-turbine-installed-at-kriegers-flak/

    Offshore wind park Kriegers Flak, Denmark.
    First of 72 turbines installed. Wind park completed by the end of this year. All foundations are already in place. This will be the largest Danish wind park, 608 MW and connected to both the Danish and German grid.

    [Yabut…]

  15. DT on Wed, 27th Jan 2021 5:28 pm 

    Cloggie That video is really cool and thoroughly illustrates the modern marvels of technology and how industrial civilization is completely reliant on FF’s. The sad part is how people are still being duped into thinking that industrial activities and projects such as in this video can exist with out FF inputs.

  16. supremacist muzzies jerk supremacist muzzies bag day Feb1 2021 on Wed, 27th Jan 2021 9:22 pm 

    911 was a single day false flag event so that (((supertards))) can feed on eurotards socialist institutions because socialists concentrate power and what better way to feed than going to eurotard financial troughs?

    it’s easy to deny 911 because it is short lived

    but convid-19 is feeding of elites on americans ourselves and it’s been going on since march20 so it’s difficult to deny.

    since the first week of convid in march, i’ve been calling for amputation of whitey supertard atheistic scientific supremacist thunderf00t. this supertard speak high british english so he loves muzzies and he propagated convid theories

    gov. christie noem of south dakota didn’t lock down the state and with turgid we would expect people to drop like flies but nothing.

    amputation now amputation then amputation forever

    please speak low english. high english is for lovin supremacist muzzies and it’s stupid

  17. Cloggie on Thu, 28th Jan 2021 1:43 am 

    Cloggie That video is really cool and thoroughly illustrates the modern marvels of technology and how industrial civilization is completely reliant on FF’s. The sad part is how people are still being duped into thinking that industrial activities and projects such as in this video can exist with out FF inputs.

    Really? Hydrogen, produced by renewable solar and wind, will replace fossil fuels in transport, cars, planes, steel production, everything.

    Steel production with hydrogen:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8l-YOMYOs3w

    Trains running on hydrogen:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6whJ56LmlFI

    Trucks running on hydrogen:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMPFAl1N41I

    Ships running on hydrogen:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2020/11/10/dutch-hydrogen-ship-anthonie/

    Flying on hydrogen:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSLygoaZVfI

    Hydrogen can do anything fossil fuels can do.

  18. Cloggie on Thu, 28th Jan 2021 3:10 am 

    Now that wind and solar are maturing, storage is next. Everywhere in Europe companies are competing for their market share.

    In the Netherlands, the local chemical industry has identified no less than 12 Dutch consortia, with plans to build 50-250 MW electrolyzers in the very near future:

    Veel bedrijven verwachten in 2021 en 2022 te beslissen over forse investeringen in de duurzame productie van waterstof. Tot nu toe werden elektrolyzers enkel kleinschalig toegepast, maar dat gaat veranderen. Alleen al in Nederland zijn er zeker twaalf consortia met plannen voor de bouw van elektrolyzers van 50 tot 250 megawatt.

    (“Many companies expect to make significant investments in the sustainable production of hydrogen in 2021 and 2022. Until now, electrolyzers were only used on a small scale, but that is about to change. In the Netherlands alone, there are at least twelve consortia with plans to build electrolyzers from 50 to 250 megawatts.”)

    What is happening in Europe is enormous. What is at stake is the trashing of all the Seven Sisters, that dominated globally in the 20th century…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Sisters_(oil_companies)

    …and providing the fuel for the entire planet in the 21st century.

    This was the picture, for instance in the Netherlands, throughout the post-war period:

    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/ac/af/98/acaf9899faac74ec186f6512fc99008b.jpg

    Anglo oil companies in the streets everywhere.

    This will be the global picture in this century:

    https://www.hydrogenfuelnews.com/the-netherlands-to-expand-its-h2-infrastructure-with-orangegas-first-hydrogen-stations/8539111/

    Expect the hydrogen technology and infrastructure this time to come from Europe.

  19. Cloggie on Thu, 28th Jan 2021 3:59 am 

    Solliance, a thin film solar cell company, based in Eindhoven, Netherlands, is able to produce flexible solar cells that look like bricks and can be seamlessly integrated into the building environment:

    https://www.ed.nl/eindhoven/binnenkort-overal-zonnecellen-zonder-dat-je-ze-ziet-we-kunnen-ze-eruit-laten-zien-als-een-muurtje-bakstenen~a71fd3bd/

    Solliance predicts that thin film solar will cover not just roofs, but also facades and roads, providing an alternative for massive solar parks in the over-populated Netherlands, meeting public resistance.

    The goal is to replace heavy Chinese solar panels with European-made flexible thin film solar, that will be much cheaper per m2 and per kWh.

  20. DT on Thu, 28th Jan 2021 4:42 am 

    “What is the primary source of hydrogen production?
    Natural gas is currently the primary source of hydrogen production, accounting for around three quarters of the annual global dedicated hydrogen production of around 70 million tonnes. This accounts for about 6% of global natural gas use.
    The Future of Hydrogen – Analysis – IEA

    http://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-hydrogen

  21. DT on Thu, 28th Jan 2021 5:22 am 

    “Hydrogen can do anything fossil fuels can do”. Most hydrogen comes from natural gas that is a FF by the way.

  22. Cloggie on Thu, 28th Jan 2021 5:47 am 

    Natural gas is currently the primary source of hydrogen production, accounting for around three quarters of the annual global dedicated hydrogen production of around 70 million tonnes. This accounts for about 6% of global natural gas use.
    The Future of Hydrogen – Analysis – IEA

    You say it: “currently”. In other words, this is bound to change in the coming decade.

    As you know, renewable electricity from wind and solar is highly intermittent, hence the need for storage of excessive renewable electricity, during times when there is more than can be consumed.

    As you admit, global industry already uses a lot of hydrogen, so they know how to store, transport and handle the stuff.

    If you are so lucky to have hot water available, from industrial processes or geothermal or CSP, you can achieve an electrolysis efficiency, higher than 100%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_electrolysis

    Heat is absorbed from the surroundings, and the heating value of the produced hydrogen is higher than the electric input. In this case the efficiency relative to electric energy input can be said to be greater than 100%

    The German Sunfire is a pioneer in HTE, claiming an efficiency of 82%:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2020/11/01/sunfire-high-efficiency-high-temperature-electrolyzer/

    Efficiency is not everything, though, if you realize that you can get extremely cheap electricity from pv-solar in the desert:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2020/04/29/more-solar-price-erosion-abu-dhabi-2-gw-1-24-eurocent-kwh/

    It is not decisive for the viability of stored solar energy if the efficiency is 60% or 80% or 100%, if 1 kWh solar electricity costs only 1.24 cent.

    Here lies the enormous possibility for poor, but sunny third world countries, like in Africa or elsewhere. Let them build and maintain enormous solar arrays in otherwise worthless deserts, so they can finally touch serious money and escape from poverty.

    That’s exactly the strategy of the German government: develop electrolysis equipment and finance the installation in said countries and let them pay it off with hydrogen.

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2020/07/29/german-moroccan-hydrogen-agreement/

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2020/06/12/germany-embraces-the-hydrogen-economy/

  23. DT on Thu, 28th Jan 2021 6:22 am 

    Cloggie going to poor countries with lots of “worthless” desert and building out an industrial scale solar power array sounds sketchy to me. Unless you happen to own the banks that loan the money to these poor nation states. Then you get to keep a whole nation of poor people in debt servitude. Raking in money on loans that will never be paid back. Clean green capitalism at it’s finest.

  24. Cloggie on Thu, 28th Jan 2021 6:37 am 

    “Raking in money on loans that will never be paid back. Clean green capitalism at it’s finest.”

    You have it already figured out that all their income will go back to paying off debt?!

    You will always come up with suggestions to torpedo a concept that could be a win-win for both Europe and Africa.

    I have solar panels for 5 years in drizzly Holland and it can be foreseen that I will have them paid back in slightly less than 9 years. In Africa, it’s 2-3 times better.

    Solar panels in the desert can be paid off in a couple of years, leaving 25 years or more worth of income. The Africans will be much better off than without this scheme.

  25. DT on Thu, 28th Jan 2021 6:59 am 

    Obviously you have no idea how international predatory banking works.

  26. Cloggie on Thu, 28th Jan 2021 7:00 am 

    Shell taking a majority stake in a new Irish offshore wind park:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2021/01/28/shell-to-build-floating-offshore-wind-park-near-ireland/

    “Shell to Build Floating Offshore Wind Park near Ireland”

    Conclusions:

    – Shell is getting real serious about reinventing itself as a renewable energy company.
    – Offshore wind now gets a deep water option, vastly expanding the potential applications. Think Japan, China, US, Ireland, Norway and many others.

  27. DT on Thu, 28th Jan 2021 7:24 am 

    Thanks for another cartoon illustration/video that clearly shows how the FF industry and all of it’s so called clean green energy transition is transpiring. All of the heavy equipment,parts,building,maintaining, thousands of miles of copper cable and god knows what else involved brought to you by the power of FF.

  28. Cloggie on Thu, 28th Jan 2021 8:17 am 

    Thanks for another cartoon illustration/video that clearly shows how the FF industry and all of it’s so called clean green energy transition is transpiring. All of the heavy equipment,parts,building,maintaining, thousands of miles of copper cable and god knows what else involved brought to you by the power of FF.

    …until the are retrofitted to run on hydrogen.

    Hydrogen can anything that natural gas or gasoline can do.

    Shouldn’t be too difficult.

    May I ask you, DT, what your formal education is? Ever seen an educational institution from the inside, after high school?

  29. DT on Thu, 28th Jan 2021 8:26 am 

    Good one Cloggie “May I ask you, DT, what your formal education is? Ever seen an educational institution from the inside, after highschool?” ad hominem
    [ˌad ˈhämənəm]
    ADVERB
    (of an argument or reaction) directed against a person rather than the position they are maintaining.

  30. DT on Thu, 28th Jan 2021 8:41 am 

    “…until the are retrofitted to run on hydrogen.

    Hydrogen can anything that natural gas or gasoline can do.

    Shouldn’t be too difficult.” Except that Hydrogen is not an energy source like gasoline and natural gas. Hydrogen is an energy carrier. So no sorry to inform you, (by someone as lowly educated as myself) hydrogen will never replace energy sources such as gasoline and natural gas. Check the laws of thermal dynamics for further education. Simplified Thermodynamics

    Energy cannot be created or destroyed. In other words, in a closed system, the total amount of energy that can be taken out of the system will be equal …
    In any given exchange of energy, there will always be energy lost. This is referred to as entropy. …
    No system can reach absolute zero temperature. …
    Reference: simplethermodynamics.blogspot.com/

  31. Cloggie on Thu, 28th Jan 2021 8:59 am 

    So no sorry to inform you, (by someone as lowly educated as myself) hydrogen will never replace energy sources such as gasoline and natural gas.

    NOBODY claims that hydrogen is an energy source, SOLAR and WIND ARE!

    And intermittent solar and wind energy can be CONVERTED into hydrogen, so we have a non-intermittent energy source… um… carrier at our disposal.

    It really needs to be spelled out for you, now does it?!

    “May I ask you, DT, what your formal education is? Ever seen an educational institution from the inside, after highschool?” ad hominem

    No, it is not an ad hominem, just a simple question.

  32. DT on Thu, 28th Jan 2021 9:13 am 

    First you say “Hydrogen can anything that natural gas or gasoline can do.” Natural gas and gasoline are energy sources. Hydrogen can never be an energy source. So hydrogen clearly cannot do anything natural gas and gasoline can do. Your question about my education was totally uncalled for by the way.

  33. Cloggie on Thu, 28th Jan 2021 11:06 am 

    First you say “Hydrogen can anything that natural gas or gasoline can do.” Natural gas and gasoline are energy sources. Hydrogen can never be an energy source. So hydrogen clearly cannot do anything natural gas and gasoline can do.

    Sigh.

    Hydrogen cannot be found in nature, unlike gas and oil. Hence the confusion about “source of energy”.

    But as soon as I have an amount of hydrogen in a vessel, I can burn it, like gas or oil. A vessel containing hydrogen is a source of energy, until it is empty.

    How can I get an amount of hydrogen in a vessel? By using electricity to split water in oxygen and hydrogen. From then on, that hydrogen acts like oil and gas I can find in nature.

    “our question about my education was totally uncalled for by the way.”

    Why? Probably because I’m touching a sore point?

    You ask questions like a 12-year-old, very tiresome and totally uninteresting. Waste of time.

    Everywhere in the world, companies and governments, worth many billions are actively developing hydrogen resources and up comes DT who questions this effort with loony arguments… “hydrogen is not an energy source”… “everything necessarily runs on fossil fuel”.

    Go read a book.

  34. DT on Thu, 28th Jan 2021 11:38 am 

    “our question about my education was totally uncalled for by the way.”

    Why? Probably because I’m touching a sore point?
    No Cloggie because that question only exposes your ignorance about the entire topic.

    As for this you say,”Hydrogen cannot be found in nature, unlike gas and oil. Hence the confusion about “source of energy”.” Hydrocarbons in gas and oil are an energy source because the process in extraction, refinement and use, the end result is usable energy that is left. Hydrogen on the other hand starts with a whole bunch of outside energy inputs, to get less energy then what you put into it from the outside sources. Hydrogen containment is a whole other problem along with not being able to ship hydrogen through pipelines, of any kind, at scale.

    You certainly are hell bent on wanting to believe in this whole clean green sustainable, renewable, corporate clap trap.

  35. Cloggie on Fri, 29th Jan 2021 4:04 am 

    Berkely says that the 100% renewable energy transition can be done before 2035.

    https://www.dailycal.org/2020/06/12/cheaper-to-save-the-climate-uc-berkeley-study-finds-clean-energy-transition-possible-by-2035/

    “‘Cheaper to save the climate’: UC Berkeley study finds clean energy transition possible by 2035”

    The EU already came to that conclusion around 2005:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_policy_of_the_European_Union

    The EU has a valuable industrial head start of at least 15 years over the US, which are very difficult to bridge.

    The Biden government has so far only paid lip service to the Paris Climate Accords, but still has no program in place and probably won’t have any time soon, because there are too many energy illiterate DT’s, makati’s, famousdr’s, anonymouse’s and empire dave types, who say it can’t be done, allowing Eurasians to increase the lead they already have.

    https://stopthesethings.com/

    That’s what you get if you prefer to stay in your intellectual comfort zone and produce shallow opinions, rather than intellectual curiosity and the will to find solutions for resource depletion and climate damage.

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