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February Non-OPEC Oil Production Sinks

Production

Below are a number of oil (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIAʼs International Energy Statistics and updated to February 2021. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries and the world.

February Non-OPEC production dropped by 1,554 kb/d primarily due to the US winter storm. February’s Non-OPEC drop was primarily driven by output decreases from the US (1,198 kb/d) and Canada (201 kb/d).

Using data from the June 2021 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the time period February 2021 to December 2022 (red graph). A significant rebound is expected in March as US production comes back online.

Output is expected to reach 52,037 kb/d in December 2022, which is lower than the previous high of December 2019, by slightly less than 500 kb/d. In the June report, the forecast December 2022 output was revised up from 52,010 by 27 kb/d.

Ranking Production from NON-OPEC Countries

Above are listed the worldʼs 11th largest Non-OPEC producers. The original criteria for inclusion in the table was that all of the countries produced more than 1,000 kb/d. Two have currently fallen below 1,000 kb/d.

In February, they produced 83.2% of the Non-OPEC output. On a YoY basis, Non-OPEC production decreased by 5,140 kb/d while on a MoM basis, production decreased by 1,554 kb/d to 47,164 kb/d. World YoY output is down by 8,161 kb/d. As noted above, the MoM February decrease was primarily driven by output decreases from the US and Canada.

The EIA reported Brazilʼs February production decreased by 53 kb/d to 2,820 kb/d. According to this source, April’s output increased by 4.6% from March to 2,970 kb/d. (Red Markers). 

“Oil production in Brazil was up 4.6% in April compared to the previous month, to 2.97 million barrels per day (bpd), in the second consecutive monthly increase, data from the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels pointed out. (ANP), with advances from Petrobras and Shell.

With regard to future production, Norway’s Equinor ASA (EQNR.OL), Exxon Mobil Corp(XOM.N) and Petrogal Brasil will pour $8 billion into Brazil’s deepwater Bacalhau oil field development. The first oil from Bacalhau is expected in 2024, with output set to reach 220,000 barrels per day, the companies said in the joint statement. The field has a break-even cost below $35 per barrel, Equinor said, or around half the current market price of crude oil, according to this source

February’s output dropped by 201 kb/d to 4,399 kb/d. Oil exports by rail to the US in March were 175.6 kb/d an increase of to 63.7 kb/d over February.

Two competing consortia have now been formed to buy the Trans Mountain pipeline once it is completed and operational. Even though all of the approvals have been received, opposition still persists. Similarly opposition continues in Minnesota against the Enbridge line 3, source.

On Monday June 14, 2021, the Minnesota appeals court upheld the regulatory approval of Line 3 permits. The court agreed that Enbridge demonstrated a sufficient need to build a replacement line during the permitting process. Source. Other appeals are continuing,

“While reasonable minds may differ on the central question of need for replacement Line 3, substantial evidence supports the commission’s decision to issue a certificate of need,” Judge Lucinda E. Jesson wrote. “Finally, the commission reasonably selected a route for the replacement pipeline based upon respect for tribal sovereignty, while minimizing environmental impacts. Accordingly, we affirm.”

Currently the US imports close to 6,000 kb/d of oil, of which close to 4,000 kb/d is from Canada. The US also exports oil to Canada.

The EIA reported Chinaʼs February output dropped by 55 kb/d from January to 3,940 kb/d.  This source reported crude output in April was 16.41 million metric tons. Using 7.3 barrels per ton, April’s output was estimated to be 3,993 kb/d, down 27 kb/d from March.

China continues to be the oil industry’s biggest spending driller because of its fear of dependence on foreign suppliers and its desire to increase its own supply. Source

Mexicoʼs production, as reported by the EIA, in February was 1,710 kb/d. Data from Pemex shows that March production increased to 1,759 kb/d and dropped to 1,752 kb/d in April (Red markers).

According to S & P Global, Mexico’s oil production is expected to remain around 1.7 million b/d for 2021 and 1.75 million b/d for 2022, in spite of the new fields it finds and brings online.

Kazakhstan’s output increased by 120 kb/d in February to 1,818 kb/d. Their OPEC + partners gave Kazakhstan permission to increase their output in April.

Kazakhstan will continue to increase oil production under OPEC+ agreement

The EIA reported that Norwayʼs February production was 1,805 kb/d, a decrease of 10 kb/d from January. The Norway Petroleum Directorate reported that production in May dropped to 1,665 kb/d after dropping to 1,728 kb/d in April, red markers.  The production drop since December is 163 kb/d and is partly due to maintenance.

According to the June OPEC report, production from Johan Sverdrup phase-1, which passed the 500 tb/d level in January 2021, is expected to reach 535 tb/d in July and then continue at this level until the end of year. The output of liquids has been affected by maintenance in 2Q21 and production is expected to be lower by 0.11 mb/d vs 1Q21. However, output is anticipated to be higher in 3Q21 by 0.06 mb/d vs 1Q21 to average 2.17 mb/d. This is due to higher production ramp ups from new projects, more than offsetting outages due to maintenance.

An earlier NPD report noted “State-controlled Equinor said in November Johan Sverdrup output, which has become a major feedstock for Chinese independent refineries, could rise beyond first-phase levels of 500,000 b/d by the middle of this year thanks to increased water injection.“

While not directly related to Norway, Norway’s Equinor ASA (EQNR.OL), Exxon Mobil Corp(XOM.N) and Petrogal Brasil will pour $8 billion into a Brazilian deepwater oil field development that is expected to produce about half of the average carbon emissions of similar projects, the companies said in a joint statement on Tuesday and reported by this source

Omanʼs February production decreased by 9 kb/d to 949 kb/d.

February’s output was unchanged at 1,362 kb/d.

Qatar’s output was drastically revised down by the EIA in its January 2021 report. The red graph represents the EIA’s assessment of Qatar’s production from January 2017 to December 2020 according to its December report. December’s 2020 production of 1,520 kb/d was revised down to 1,348 kb/d in the February report, a decrease of 172 kb/d.

According to the Russian Ministry of Energy, Russian production decreased by 23 kb/d in May to 10,453 kb/d. The difference of close to 400 kb/d between the US and Russian numbers indicates a difference in the definition of Crude plus Condensate.

UKʼs production decreased by 62 kb/d in February to 870 kb/d.

According to OPEC, several E&P projects have reportedly been deferred, such as the Seagull project, which was deferred to late 2022. Hence, UK oil supply is expected to decline by 0.05 mb/d y-o-y to average 1.02 mb/d due to a decrease of 32% in investment last year in the oil and gas sector.

U.S. March production increased by 1,401 kb/d to 11,184 kb/d from Februaryʼs output of 9,783 kb/d and was also 128 kb/d higher than January’s. The increase was due to the rebound from the severe winter storm that hit the four US southern states, Texas, New Mexico, Louisiana and Oklahoma.

The June STEO report forecast US output would drop in April and May to 10,983 kb/d. It would then begin to increase at an average monthly rate of 61.3 kb/d/mth up to December 2022, red markers.

It should be noted that the June STEO lowered the December 2022 production forecast from 12,334 kb/d to 12,147 kb/d, a drop of 187 kb/d. The revised forecast also drops the average monthly US output increase to 61.3 kb/d/mth from last month’s estimate of 75 kb/d/mth.

This should be welcome news to OPEC. If demand growth were to approach 1,000 kb/d in 2022, this would mean that OPEC would have room to increase their production, depending on what the rest of Non OPEC excluding the US does.

Rig additions continued in the US from the August low of 172 to mid June 2021. For the week of June 18 the rig count increased by 8 to 373. Texas added 2 while the Permian added 1 to 237

In the week of June 18, 5 frac spreads were added and reached a new recent high of 235. There is no indication of a change or slowing in the rate at which frac spreads are added each month.

These five countries complete the list of Non-OPEC countries with annual production between 500 kb/d and 1,000 kb/d. Their combined February production was 3,404 kb/d, up by 50 kb/d from January’s. Azerbaijan’s and Indonesia’s output appears to be recovering.

World Oil Production Projection

World oil production in February decreased by 2,022 kb/d to 74,138 kb/d according to the EIA. Of the 2,022 kb/d drop, the largest contributors were, US 1,273 kb/d, Saudi Arabia 900 kb/d and 201 kb/d from Canada.

This chart also projects world production out to December 2022. It uses the June STEO report along with the International Energy Statistics to make the projection, red markers. It projects that world crude production in December 2022 will be close to 82,640 kb/d. This is 2,000 kb/d lower than the November 2018 peak of 84,631 kb/d.

An Interesting OPEC Exercise

Above are the 11 OPEC countries that were present in OPEC in November 2016 when production reached its maximum output of 33,374 kb/d. Since then Ecuador and Qatar have left. With those two removed the maximum production is reduced to 32,180 kb/d. Production from the remaining 11 countries in May 2021 is in the middle column. The last column is my guesstimate where production will be in mid 2022. These guesses come from looking at the charts in the previous OPEC post by Dennis.

I should note that the EIA STEO is projecting flat output of 28,700 kb/d for OPEC from October 2021 to December 2022. In Q4-19, pre-pandemic, these 11 countries were producing close to 28,700 kb/d.

Essentially I am saying that OPEC output is going from 25,000 kb/d in May 2021 to 29,000 kb/d by Mid 2022, a potential increase of 4,000 kb/d. That still leaves those 11 OPEC countries down by 3,000 kb/d from November 2016.

If by mid 2022 world demand is back to pre pandemic levels and the US is producing close to 11,500 kb/d, we may be seeing a very tight oil market sooner than most expect.

Here is your fun exercise. Put your numbers in column three and give us your best guess.

peak oil barrel



20 Comments on "February Non-OPEC Oil Production Sinks"

  1. Ted Wilson on Sun, 20th Jun 2021 11:57 am 

    As oil price stays above $70/barrel, most shale will come back. However the max reached by USA was 13,100 million b/d. So whether World will hit 75 million b/d is doubtful. But NGL keeps increasing because of increase in natgas output. Besides nearly 6 million b/d that comes from CTL, GTL and bio-fuels will keep overall oil consumption above 100 million b/d.

    Despite rapid increase in electric vehicles, oil will hold above 100 minion b/d mark.

  2. Duncan Idaho on Sun, 20th Jun 2021 12:07 pm 

    Hint:
    We are not even close to global peak oil (C+C), in November of 2018.
    Don’t hold your breath.

  3. makati1 on Sun, 20th Jun 2021 4:39 pm 

    Ted, I think you are correct. Oil is not over no matter what the “greenies” say or want. And, the only way EVs will dominate is if 99% of the ICE vehicles are gone. No going to happen.

    I think it will be decade before peak FF use happens. We shall see.

  4. Dredd on Tue, 22nd Jun 2021 2:17 pm 

    “Sinks?”

    You ain’t seen nothing yet. Sink is going to be a four letter word (Seaports With Sea Level Change – 15).

  5. Duncan Idaho on Tue, 22nd Jun 2021 4:08 pm 

    It’s About Time To Throw Out the Crooks and Liars and Rednecks

    (you know who you are)

  6. WeHaveEverythingOnYou on Thu, 24th Jun 2021 6:31 pm 

    You have been fucked over by a Quebecker red neck like this guy.

    The Red Green Show Ep 285 “No Tell Boatel” (2005 Season)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOSety3qEIg

    The red neck man that I am, has been able to gather all the intelligence needed to win a war against you stupid, controllers of the world.

    Thank you for this precious data..

  7. Duncan Idaho on Fri, 25th Jun 2021 3:45 pm 

    GOP lawmaker Adam Kinzinger pushes back against Pence’s comparison of Trump to Reagan

    https://www.alternet.org/2021/06/adam-kinzinger-2653545878/

    Well, both are (were) excellent liars, so that is a push.
    The Fat Boy seems to have an edge at pure exploitation of vice and crime.
    But, let’s be honest, Reagan was not the brightest porch light on the block. I sat through a one hour presentation he gave, and his ignorance bordered on humor.

  8. FamousDrScanlon on Fri, 25th Jun 2021 4:51 pm 

    More Americans ‘socially liberal’ than conservative for first time – huge swing over past 20 years

    “”Views that gay and lesbian relations are morally acceptable have increased from 40% to 69%, having a baby outside of marriage from 45% to 67%, sex between an unmarried man and woman from 53% to 73%, divorce from 59% to 79%, polygamy from 7% to 20%, and sex between teenagers from 32% to 43%. (All but one of these issues were first rated between 2001-2003; the baseline for sex between teenagers is 2013).””

    https://www.alternet.org/2021/06/social-liberalism/

    Go Libtards!

    Libtards UNITE

    Buy Gunz-N-ammo

    And Fight! Fight! Fight!

    Nut house nation the worlds favourite Reality-Freak Show

  9. makati1 on Fri, 25th Jun 2021 5:30 pm 

    Another day, another bunch of retards posting shit on P.O.. Same old bullshit from the couch potatoes with no life. I almost miss Davy. (I said:”Almost”.)

    Is there anyone left, besides me, who can debate intelligently with real facts and not propaganda? It appears not. Sigh!

    Watching the West go down the shitter is getting boring. Even the multiple killings in Amerika are now common place, setting new records. Cross-over pedestrian bridges collapsing in DC. A building collapsing in Miami. Heat and drought spreading to Canada. Food shortages on the horizon in Amerika? A zombie prez and a cackling witch VP. The US collapsing in general.

    Me, Putin and Xi watching from the sidelines as the West implodes. Ho-hum…pass the popcorn.

  10. makati1 on Fri, 25th Jun 2021 5:31 pm 

    BTW: will the new military ‘camo’ uniforms be shades of pink? LOL

  11. FamousDrScanlon on Fri, 25th Jun 2021 6:26 pm 

    Why Are So Many Baby Boomers in Denial Over the Coronavirus?

    ” Just look around at the people running our government today. The average age of a sitting United States senator is 61.8. The president is 73. Nancy Pelosi is 79. The two remaining candidates for the Democratic nomination, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, are 77 and 78, respectively. These people are literally running America (or are eager to do so) and so they don’t really believe us when we tell them that they are in the crosshairs of Covid-19.

    Trump, in particular, seems to be in absolute denial. For weeks he’s been saying that Covid-19 is no big deal. On February 28, Trump said that coronavirus will “disappear” like a “miracle.”

    https://www.vogue.com/article/coronavirus-baby-boomers-at-risk

    COVID-19 a ‘boomer remover’ — Why millennials are angry and done with older generation

    ‘OK Boomer’ and ‘Uncle, please sit’ are popular catchphrases to signal an enough-is-enough attitude toward older generations.

    https://theprint.in/opinion/pov/covid-19-a-boomer-remover-why-millennials-are-angry-and-done-with-older-generation/381223/

    My nephews & nieces love their grandma but they, along with millions of their peers, can’t wait for parasitic Boomers to DIE so they can start to make the necessary changes to protect their families from the onslaught of unavoidable consequences from the fucked up Boomer built system/world.

    OK Boomers

  12. FamousDrScanlon on Fri, 25th Jun 2021 6:34 pm 

    Great book

    A Generation of Sociopaths: How the Baby Boomers Betrayed America

    “In his “remarkable” (Men’s Journal) and “controversial” (Fortune) book — written in a “wry, amusing style” (The Guardian) — Bruce Cannon Gibney shows how America was hijacked by the Boomers, a generation whose reckless self-indulgence degraded the foundations of American prosperity.

    In A Generation of Sociopaths, Gibney examines the disastrous policies of the most powerful generation in modern history, showing how the Boomers ruthlessly enriched themselves at the expense of future generations.

    Acting without empathy, prudence, or respect for facts–acting, in other words, as sociopaths–the Boomers turned American dynamism into stagnation, inequality, and bipartisan fiasco. The Boomers have set a time bomb for the 2030s, when damage to Social Security, public finances, and the environment will become catastrophic and possibly irreversible–and when, not coincidentally, Boomers will be dying off.

    Gibney argues that younger generations have a fleeting window to hold the Boomers accountable and begin restoring America.”

    https://b-ok.cc/book/3366403/e2b68c

  13. FamousDrScanlon on Fri, 25th Jun 2021 6:38 pm 

    Great book

    The Theft of a Decade: How the Baby Boomers Stole the Millennials’ Economic Future

    “A Wall Street Journal columnist delivers a brilliant narrative of the mugging of the millennial generation– how the Baby Boomers have stolen the millennials’ future in order to ensure themselves a comfortable present

    The Theft of a Decade is a contrarian, revelatory analysis of how one generation pulled the rug out from under another, and the myriad consequences that has set in store for all of us. The millennial generation was the unfortunate victim of several generations of economic theories that made life harder for them than it was for their grandparents.

    Then came the crash of 2008, and the Boomer generation’s reaction to it was brutal: politicians and policy makers made deliberate decisions that favored the interests of the Boomer generation over their heirs, the most egregious being over the use of monetary policy, fiscal policy and regulation. For the first time in recent history, policy makers gave up on investing for the future and instead mortgaged that future to pay for the ugly economic sins of the present.

    This book describes a new economic crisis, a sinister tectonic shift that is stealing a generation’s future.”

    https://b-ok.cc/book/5606381/31fcb2

  14. makati1 on Fri, 25th Jun 2021 7:19 pm 

    Boomers? Hmm. Those who came after, are now couch potatoes, snowflakes, and building a LGBT+ ‘military’. They (millennials) have had 57 years to remake the US and they failed. Why not blame Gen X & Y? ‘Blame’ is the main sport of Amerikans. Xi and Putin are laughing their asses off. Me too!

  15. makati1 on Fri, 25th Jun 2021 7:20 pm 

    BTW: I”m older than the Boomers. Don’t blame me.

  16. StupidPIeceOFShits on Fri, 25th Jun 2021 8:24 pm 

    They are even updating all the jurassic park movies with Jinn face. Look below

    https://www3.bflix.to/movie/the-lost-world-jurassic-park-yqnp/2o7008q

    This is not looking good, right there with peak oil. Where are all theses Jinn coming from, from the bigger earth or they were already here. Too much shit to fix at the same time. Introducting a new type of life form, the Jinn, at the same moment we have peak oil. What is wrong with you people. This is too much of a mess. Nobody want to touch that kind of shitty mess

  17. Biden's hairplug on Sat, 26th Jun 2021 3:39 am 

    Makati says: “Me, Putin and Xi watching from the sidelines as the West implodes. Ho-hum…pass the popcorn.”

    Forget about those “side-lines”, events will directly involve you personally. The UK action this week against Russia in the Black Sea/Crimea is clearly intended to provoke a major conflict:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLPYAKL-f2M

    Next time Russia will shoot and inflict visible damage to the ship, a third time Russia will sink the UK its boat.

    The US is not going to wait until China has outflanked the US and has ordered its UK sidekick to provoke a conflict.

    Rest assured that if a major conflict develops in the Black Sea, that China will immediately seize the opportunity and invade both Taiwan and the Philippines. China knows that it will prevail together with Russia or fall separately. The US could be on the verge to play va banque.

  18. Biden's hairplug on Sat, 26th Jun 2021 3:47 am 

    Gibney argues that younger generations have a fleeting window to hold the Boomers accountable and begin restoring America.”

    https://b-ok.cc/book/3366403/e2b68c

    Any idea what you are saying here, commissar apneaman? You know the meaning of the word re-storing… bringing back in its old state… that’s exactly what going to happen… bringing back America in its old state, the one before 1776:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6LEH3S6_Dg

    (OK, this is from ca. 1860, couldn’t find one that was older)

    Before 1776, as you might recall from history lessons, was the time when there was a natural hierarchy between the European Mother Civilization and the wood choppers.

  19. kennedystewart on Sat, 26th Jun 2021 4:04 am 

    I guess the Mid 2023 column is about 32,000
    https://geometrydash-best.com

  20. makati1 on Sat, 26th Jun 2021 4:57 pm 

    Biden’s, no they will not, unless it is nuclear, then big cities will be first and the rest of us will linger on. I do not need the West for anything. You need Russia and China to exist.

    You do not live in the real world. The US cannot attack China. Not militarily or economically. The US relies on China for most everything including the stuff to make weapons. The US is nothing but hot air, pretending to still be the world’s ruler. That ended long ago and the world knows it. Obviously you do not.

    BTW: You keep harping in “China invading the Philippines. Why Would they? They already own/control most of the big stuff here. The Philippines in no threat to China. The US will be held off to Guam or Australia as the closest it can get without its carriers being sunk. Taiwan is going to be taken anyway in the near future, one way or another and the US will slink away with its tail between its legs, spouting bullshit, as always.

    YOU are in harms way, not me. Get educated!

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