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Page added on January 16, 2019
Art Berman: Exposing The False Promise Of Shale Oil
Art Berman, geological consultant with over 37 years experience in petroleum exploration and production, returns to the podcast this week to debunk much of the hopium currently surrounding America’s shale oil output.
Because the US is pinning huge hopes on its shale oil “revolution”, so much depends on that story being right. Here’s the narrative right now:
- The US, is the new Saudi Arabia
- It’s the swing producer when it comes to influencing the price of oil
- The US will be able to increase oil production for decades to come
- New technology is unlocking more oil shale supply all the time
But what if there’s evidence that runs counter to all of that?
We’re going to be taking a little victory lap on this week’s podcast because The Wall Street Journal has finally admitted that shale oil wells are not producing as much as the companies operating them touted they would produce — which is what we’ve been saying for years here at PeakProsperity.com, largely because we closely follow Art’s work:
The Wall Street Journal did some research and they got the general point that the wells are not as good as advertised.
But what they missed is just how much farther off many of these reserves are than even the discounted reserves that they’ve reported.
Bottom line: if the understatement is only 10%, that’s a rounding error and it’s not that much of an issue to the average person. But I’ve been trying for a decade to get the number that I independently develop to get anywhere close to the published numbers. In most cases, I can only get near 60% or 70% of them. So, the gap, I think is much more substantial.
The reason that The Wall Street Journal didn’t get it more right is because they don’t do any independent research and of course they didn’t talk to me, they didn’t talk to Dave Hughes, they didn’t talk to people who actually do the work, and so they’re getting one side of the story.
105 Comments on "Art Berman: Exposing The False Promise Of Shale Oil"
Anonymous on Wed, 16th Jan 2019 8:33 pm
Why should we believe his cautions when he was so blatantly wrong in estimating the growth of shale. Year after year.
makati1 on Wed, 16th Jan 2019 8:48 pm
All oily articles are bullshit guesses. Like the economists articles, more bullshit guesses. Both are always wrong and looking in the rear view mirror for the future.
Outcast_Searcher on Wed, 16th Jan 2019 9:16 pm
But the typical oil guess from credible sources is WAY better than the constant doomer mantra of mak and his buddies.
makati1 on Wed, 16th Jan 2019 9:29 pm
Outcast, when is bullshit better than fact? Only in your mind. There are 98 oil producing countries in the world, (WIKI) including the Philippines at ~200,000 bbls/day. All sell their oil at a different price.
Can you tell me what the price of sand is going to be tomorrow? No, because it will vary by who is selling it to whom. Too many variable not counting economics, to make an accurate forecast. Just guesses.
Whereas, the Western economy is collapsing daily. THAT is fact. I could post articles proving that until there would be no room left here for you to putdown my assertions. Prove your assertion that “doomer” facts are wrong and oily guesses are correct. I’m waiting…
deadly on Wed, 16th Jan 2019 10:07 pm
When there were 201 wells in 2005 the production was less than one hundred thousand barrels per day, today there are 12,664 wells producing well over one point three million barrels per day.
Production has increased by about 450 times with an increase in the number of wells by 60 times.
85252 x 450 = 38,363,400 barrels of oil per month.
200 x 60 = 12,060 wells
Looks like somebody knows how to drill for oil, find it, produce it, deliver it, the whole enchilada.
Numbers that don’t lie.
2005 8 85252 2750 201 424 14
2018 11 39597282 1319909 12664 3127 104
WELLS RELEASED FROM “TIGHT HOLE” STATUS:
#31777 – BRUIN E&P OPERATING, LLC, FORT BERTHOLD 151-94-26B-35-11H, NWNW 26-151N-94W,
MCKENZIE CO., 3376 BOPD, 4971 BWPD – SANISH
#32431 – BRUIN E&P OPERATING, LLC, FORT BERTHOLD 151-94-26B-35-13H, NWNW 26-151N-94W,
MCKENZIE CO., 4215 BOPD, 5578 BWPD – SANISH
#32844 – BURLINGTON RESOURCES OIL & GAS COMPANY LP, REMINGTON-LOVAAS 4C UTFHULW, SWSE 11-150N-96W, MCKENZIE CO., 360 BOPD, 5152 BWPD – BAKKEN
#33644 – CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC., OMLID 6-19H, NWNE 30-151N-97W, MCKENZIE CO.,
1744 BOPD, 1948 BWPD – BAKKEN
#34490 – NINE POINT ENERGY, LLC, HOVDE 150-100-6-7-13H, LOT3 6-150N-100W, MCKENZIE CO.,
1652 BOPD, 2663 BWPD – BAKKEN
#34491 – NINE POINT ENERGY, LLC, HOVDE 150-100-6-7-4H, LOT3 6-150N-100W, MCKENZIE CO.,
1126 BOPD, 2352 BWPD – BAKKEN
#34492 – NINE POINT ENERGY, LLC, HOVDE 150-100-6-7-3H, LOT3 6-150N-100W, MCKENZIE CO.,
1287 BOPD, 2464 BWPD – BAKKEN
#34652 – WPX ENERGY WILLISTON, LLC, LAWRENCE BULL 1-12HZ, SWSW 33-149N-92W, DUNN
CO., 2685 BOPD, 2075 BWPD – BAKKEN
NDIC wells released for January 16th 2019
Those are ok wells, don’t pay any attention to the barrels of water produced each day. Never mind those.
deadly on Wed, 16th Jan 2019 10:11 pm
201, not 200 wells.
Production statistics are for the Bakken Formation.
makati1 on Wed, 16th Jan 2019 10:58 pm
FYI: “TRULY AWESOME MILLENNIALS !!!!”
“If young people are a country’s future, then let me tell you something folks …. Amerika is fucked!!!!…
You see, I think the majority of ‘Murikan utes now favor Socialism. Our education system is completely dominated by Leftists from Kindergarten to the Universities. I really don’t understand why the Left hates Russia so much since we have become what what they once were…. (Reread that last sentence.)
15,000 participants came to the forum from every region of Russia and 120 foreign countries. Vladimir Putin promised volunteers that the state will continue to support them even after the Year of Volunteers ends in Russia. The president made several personal promises which are very important to the people they were made to….
It was the culmination of the International Volunteer Forum which was held in Moscow…The volunteer movement includes 14 million people in Russia.”
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2019/01/16/truly-awesome-millennials/#more-190230
“Volunteers also created the Dream with Me project. They fulfill the wishes of children who have deadly illnesses….
Vladimir Putin stopped at a charity projects booth with envelopes containing the wishes of seriously ill children attached to it. He took all of the five remaining envelopes….”
You have to read the article to see why the US is collapsing and Russia is rising. Can you imagine Trump doing what Putin did after he read the remaining five requests he took? I cannot.
Nor can I imagine today’s American youth doing what thousands of Russian youth do every day, for free. Imagine, 14 million volunteers. That is 10% of Russia’s population! I cannot imagine 33 million Americans (10%) volunteering for anything.
peakyeast on Wed, 16th Jan 2019 11:10 pm
@mak: Here is what US citizens are volunteering for:
https://www.cnsnews.com/commentary/terence-p-jeffrey/354-percent-109631000-welfare
Government welfare…
😉
makati1 on Wed, 16th Jan 2019 11:27 pm
Over 109,000,000 sucking on the government teat. I didn’t realize the number was so high. What will they do when the SHTF? Pure chaos!
The US could support the entire population of the Philippines (107M) and have money left over. LOL
Cloggie on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 1:48 am
@mak: Here is what US citizens are volunteering for:
https://www.cnsnews.com/commentary/terence-p-jeffrey/354-percent-109631000-welfare
Government welfare…
In mobsters Nirvana, the USSR-of-former-fame, it used to be 100%.
We’re almost there!
Cloggie on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 2:34 am
The Death of Peak Oil.
I came here in January 2012, after in Holland the site peakoil.nl closed down. At the time I was still a bona fide peak oil believer in the mold of Heinberg-ASPO2000. I was convinced that in a couple of years oil shortages would make themselves felt and that it was game over for industrial society soon. It was the time I was thinking about prepping, changing my backyard in a vegetable garden and the like.
The peak oil guru in Holland between 2007-2012 and the guru behind peakoil.nl, was Rembrandt Koppelaar. He even made it to the prime time Dutch news show NOVA (2008) to make his case (English subs):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klFtVZ_bs60
At the time I visited one of his 2 hour presentations in the Delft Technical University, basically promoting the Heinberg story.
However, he has changed his mind since, just like I morphed away from being a Heinberg-groupie by the end of 2012 and gradually grew more optimistic between then and now.
And since the beginning of 2019 I have even turned into a renewable energy Cornucopian, now that I know that hydrogen is a very workable storage medium:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/01/12/hydrogen-from-electrolysis-now-cost-competitive/
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/01/14/eu-helmeth-project-power-to-methane-75-efficiency/
By the end of this month I will be involved, as a part-time advisor, in a Dutch hydrogen-offshoot storage project.
Not sure if Rembrandt Koppelaar is a renewable energy Cornucopian these days, but he has toned down considerably:
https://www.amazon.com/Tesla-Revolution-Why-Losing-Energy-ebook/dp/B06XWM5MDW/ref=sr_1_1
He now believes that Big Oil is under threat from… renewable energy!
Message from Holland: relax! There is no real energy problem; by the end of this century the world will have a “solar economy”.
Real giant problems remain: overpopulation being the most important, the darkening of the planet and subsequent lowering of standards all over the world due to the spreading of Marxist values. The degradation of the biosphere, loss of biodiversity and probably man-made climate change.
But energy is NOT the problem.
Cloggie on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 3:19 am
Rembrandt Koppelaar, Imperial College Londen (2015):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQBIjCKiBOE
Peak oil nostalgia. Rembrandt Koppelaar speaking at Oil Drum conference (date?):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=id5TwA53iZE
The early, studentesque, days of peak oil, (Dutch) interview with “chairman peakoil Nederland”, located probably at some shabby attic in the center of Amsterdam:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkZkdbCF39A
Antius on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 3:57 am
“Message from Holland: relax! There is no real energy problem; by the end of this century the world will have a “solar economy”.”
Peak Oil. It is called ‘The Long Emergency’ for a reason. It has been going on since 1973 – that was effectively the peak for low-cost OECD oil. Since then, we have been substituting light, sweet conventional crude, with progressively less desirable resources. Most researchers predicted overall Peak Oil (liquids) between 2005 and 2025. In terms of conventional oil, 2005 was about right. Peak Diesel is a consequence of Peak (Conventional) Oil and declining real prosperity in the western world is a symptom.
When Peak Liquids (in net energy terms) will occur is less certain – it will happen when unconventional sources can no longer expand rapidly enough to offset declining conventional resources. It is less significant than Peak (conventional) Oil, because unconventional liquids are less useful to the global economy than conventional oil, which had a much more useful balance of heavy and light hydrocarbons.
Maybe a solar economy is the long term solution. Expect a difficult time, both economically and politically, between now and then. And a ‘renewable’ world will look very different to the one we have. The way we live will be different and the infrastructure we use will be different.
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 4:58 am
University of California: Environmental
Science & Technology (Malyshkina 2010)
1. It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives
2. World oil production will peak between 2010-2030
3. World proven oil reserves gone by 2041
https://www.scribd.com/document/394656677/Future-Sustainability-Forecasting-by-Exchange-Markets-Basic-Theory-and-an-Application-Malyshkina-2010
A global energy assessment (Jefferson 2016)
An extensive new scientific analysis conducted by the Former Chief Economist Michael Jefferson at Royal Dutch Shell published in Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews titled “A Global Energy Assessment 2016” : says “that proved conventional oil reserves as detailed in oil industry sources are likely “overstated” by half.” & “punt bluntly,the standard claim that the world has proved conventional oil reserves of nearly 1.7 trillion barrels is overstated by about 876 billion barrels. Thus, despite the fall in crude oil prices from a peak in June 2014, after that of July 2008, the “peak oil” issue remains with us.”
The World in the 21st Century is faced with huge challenges that go far beyond, but importantly include, energy challenges on the supply, access, and use sides. So severe are these challenges, mainly arising from the demands of a rapidly increasing human population on the Earth’s limited resources, that the future existence of large numbers of people may be threatened with extinction. In that sense, we may be observing the twilight of the Anthropocene (Human) Age.
https://www.scribd.com/document/394043449/A-Global-Energy-Assessment-Jefferson-2015
Projection of world fossil fuels by country (Mohr, 2015) Fuel
Over 900 different regions and subfuel situations were modeled using three URR scenarios of Low, High, and Best Guess. All three scenarios indicate that the consistent strong growth in world fossil fuel production is likely to cease after 2025. The Low and Best Guess scenarios are projected to peak before 2025 and decline thereafter. The High scenario is anticipated to have a strong growth to 2025 before stagnating in production for 50 years and thereafter declining.
https://www.scribd.com/document/375110317/Projection-of-World-Fossil-Fuels-by-Country-Mohr-2015
IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Warns of World Oil Shortages Ahead
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-minister-sees-end-of-oil-price-slump-1476870790
There will be an oil shortage in the 2020’s, Goldman Sachs says
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/09/goldman-sachs-there-will-be-an-oil-shortage-in-the-2020s.html
Wood Mackenzie warns of oil and gas supply crunch
https://www.ft.com/content/a1eb0e58-d7a4-11e8-ab8e-6be0dcf18713
Imminent peak oil could burst US, global economic bubble – study
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/nov/19/peak-oil-economicgrowth
German Military (leaked) Peak Oil study: oil is used in the production of 95% of all industrial goods, so a shortage of oil would collapse the world economy & world governments
https://www.scribd.com/document/387459134/german
Antius on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 5:00 am
I have always had doubts about the hydrogen economy. A lot of idealistic people tend to get swept up with enthusiasm about it and tend not to critically examine the idea for fear of jinxing it.
Storing electricity in hydrogen requires a chain of processes, each of which implies fixed capital costs and energy losses.
1. Electrolysis. Cloggie is correct in saying that scaling electrolysis to multi-MW scales will introduce scale economies. However, he is far too sanguine about the promise of high-temperature electrolysis. Firstly, assuming that we wish to maintain the same current density for high-temperature electrolysis cells (which is desirable, as capital costs are a strong inverse function of current density), we need much higher pressures, as maintaining current density whilst increasing efficiency, requires that the electrolyte maintain tolerable density. The electrolysis cell cannot efficiently electrolyse steam. It can electrolyse saturated or supercritical water. What that means in short, is that the hotter an electrolysis cell runs, the greater the required system pressure. That pushes up capital cost. The hotter the cell runs, the greater the problems associated with oxidation and fatigue, which will put upper limits on the cell lifetime. Secondly, the assumption that high temperature electrolysis is more efficient. That is true in electrical terms. But the heat involved still has to come from somewhere. Electrical efficiency = 50-80% – depending upon the technology used.
2. Compression or liquefaction. Hydrogen is a highly diffuse gas. In the days of yore, large amounts of coal derived hydrogen was stored in gasometers under very light compression, ready for distribution as town gas. This is the most efficient and easy way of storing hydrogen and involves the minimum losses due to leakage. But it is only suitable for short term storage – hours or days. Storing large quantities long term requires either compression to high pressures (up to 1000atm for vehicles) or liquefaction. Both imply capital costs and energy losses. About a 10% energy loss for compression and a 30% loss for liquefaction to temperatures of -253C. Liquefaction is more suitable for long-term storage. But hydrogen is a deep cryogen and achieving the required temperatures is expensive both in capital and energy cost. Finding a container that remains ductile at -253C is a challenge in itself.
3. Storage. Hydrogen is the smallest molecule and by far the most volatile. At ambient temperatures, it will soak through the lattice structure of most metals, making them brittle and leading to slow loss of hydrogen over time through seals for example. The higher the pressure, the worse this problem gets. This is why liquefaction is in many ways preferable to compression. Storing hydrogen at pressure for long periods is not practical, partly because of this issue and also due to the capital cost associated with pressurised storage. Liquid hydrogen will slowly boil-off, but for large stores, the rate of boil-off can be managed through the use of insulation. Again, this implies capital cost. Storing hydrogen long-term in a pressure cylinder or insulated tank gets less cost effective the longer you store it. If you store 1000kWh for a 1 day period, then storage costs are spread over 365,000kWh per year. If you store the same amount of energy for a whole year, then the cost of storage is 365 times higher for each marginal kW.
4. Generating electricity. There are a number of ways of doing this. Hydrogen could be burned in gas-turbines, presumably as part of a combined cycle (~50% efficient). This is the most established technology. Most hydrogen schemes envisage the use of fuel cells. Solid oxide fuel cells have efficiency 55%. These are the types typically employed for building-scale distributed power schemes. They have the advantage of producing good quality waste heat that might be used for other things and being tolerant of contaminants. Proton exchange membranes offer similar efficiency at a slightly lower cost, provided you don’t need the waste heat.
Total efficiency 25-30%. That means for every unit of electrical power that comes out of the fuel cell or gas turbine, some 3-4 units must be input in the first place. Cloggie’s estimate of capital cost of $500/kW for hydrogen storage is absurdly low, given that the fuel cell on its own will cost upwards of $5000-10,000/kW (see link below, page 12). If the capital cost of the other items are included, the situation gets progressively worse. Then one needs to consider the operational costs of a system that consumes 3-4 units of electric power for every single unit it produces.
http://www.elcogen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LSM_ELC_WhitePaper-FINAL.compressed.pdf
Energy storage will never be cheap or perfectly efficient; a good reason to avoid it wherever we can. But hydrogen really is the worst energy storage scheme that there is. There will always be suckers.
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 5:01 am
Renewable energy ‘simply won’t work’: Top Google engineers
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/11/21/renewable_energy_simply_wont_work_google_renewables_engineers/
It Will Take 131 Years To Replace Oil, And We’ve Only Got 10
https://www.businessinsider.com/131-years-to-replace-oil-2010-11
Study predicts world economy unlikely to stop relying on fossil fuels
https://phys.org/news/2016-02-world-economy-fossil-fuels.html
Davy on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 5:10 am
“@mak: Here is what US citizens are volunteering for: Government welfare…”
Well, peak, your Denmark is the King of government welfare so you should know. Wink wink.
Davy on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 5:13 am
“Over 109,000,000 sucking on the government teat. I didn’t realize the number was so high. What will they do when the SHTF? Pure chaos!”
We can afford it makattiii, we are the richest country in the world and I guess this is the reason you extremist are so bent on your anti-Americanism.
“The US could support the entire population of the Philippines (107M) and have money left over. LOL”
No shit Sherlock, the P’s GDP is around what my insignificant states GDP is and we have 16 times less population. LOL.
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 5:24 am
Here is where white nationalism takes you..Cross dressing!
https://i.imgur.com/HGfVRGn.jpg
The Nazis were into freakish shit like this as well..
Davy on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 5:33 am
“The Death of Peak Oil.”
The dynamics of Peak Oil are alive and well but they are not what peakers thought they were a few years ago. They are not being properly acknowledged by the techno optimistic cornucopians who exaggerate most of their grand technologies like clogged with hydrogen. The dynamics of peak oil are powerful force to be reckoned with and anyone dismissing POD has an ulterior agenda like our clogged. In clogged case it is the renewable part of his PBM fantasy. Renewables are essential for fossil fuel starved EU to realize an Empire. Renewables will transform our energy systems but there will likely be no energy transition which has to be considered at least 90% primary energy. There are plenty of hydrocarbons for the other 10%.
We have discussed this issue over and over and it becomes obsessively redundant. Renewables cannot replicate. A KW is not a KW when put into the real world of economy and behavior. Intermittency is a powerful impediment. Economies of scale and the realistic scaling needed for renewables is huge and expensive. This could be overcome with a robust healthy economy but our global economy is in decline from limits of growth. Behavior is the biggest obstacle and behaviors are moving in the wrong direction, yellow vests anyone. Renewables have yet to pass the 50% grid penetration anywhere. They likely will quickly stall when storage must be implemented along with hyper smart grids that will be unstable.
Clogged likes to talk up the city state of Denmark. Clogged, Denmark does not count as a country for this analysis. Peak oil dynamics biggest threat is affordability and stability of states. The potential for oil regions to be knocked out by conflict is another worrisome dynamic. Yea, I know this is not traditional geologic PO but that is not good either with legacy super giant fields wearing out. We got lucky shale came on the scene. Technology is lengthening the PO tail. Too bad we are pissing away that extra energy on poor behavior everywhere especially in Asia. Not that Asia is worse than places like the US with bad behavior but Asia has many more times the number of people and that calls for different behavior not a craving for the failed American dream.
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 5:40 am
REPORT: AOC is on her way to summon Mitch McConnell to the guillotine.
Davy on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 5:42 am
Dirty Juan, I saved Antius hydrogen comment to my notes. LOL. Antius, I am not sure why he doesn’t like you. Maybe it is because you are objective and smart and this is problematic for a low IQ extremist.
Davy on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 5:51 am
Antius, excellent recap of hydrogen. You have posted much of this already but that was nice and concise. Clogged will have a hard time refuting that. For clogged his PBM based renewable Empire rests on hydrogen. He knows the problems with storage so hydrogen is the key. He is crowing lately by a few studies that talk hydrogen up but of course there are currently no real world applications of scale. His Dutchland is already saturated with renewables and now the hard part of integrating the more expensive intermittency solving technologies is upon them and oops EUland is in recession. Hydrogen is well known and not likely to be improved on much with technology in regards to cost and efficiency as an energy vector. It will find its niche and this is vital. Making up for intermittency and driving a transport system on a grand scale is not going to be its strong suit. There are other systems better suited for that but all of them are expensive and have weaknesses. We need many technologies combined with behavior to find a good place in the coming decline that is inevitable of multiple reasons many that are not energy based although all of the decline variables are interrelated.
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 6:04 am
Hey Putin and Iran!
Don’t make us George Bush this button, over nothing!
LMFAO!
Davy on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 6:10 am
Good comments MOB. Saved to my notes that I like to read over and over again hundreds of times cause I really don’t have anything more important to do with my miserable existence. I like to call that mental exercises.
Cloggie on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 6:16 am
Will go into detail later, so Antius keep watching this thread.
Dirty Juan, I saved Antius hydrogen comment to my notes. LOL. Antius, I am not sure why he doesn’t like you. Maybe it is because you are objective and smart and this is problematic for a low IQ extremist.
???? Juan didn’t post in this thread.
LOL, dirty juan is up and at it on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 6:18 am
Davy on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 6:10 am Good comments MOB. Saved to my notes that I like to read over and over again hundreds of times cause I really don’t have anything more important to do with my miserable existence. I like to call that mental exercises.
dirty juan's debate tactics on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 6:23 am
low IQ identity theft and sock puppeteering. Oh I forgot ass kissing too. He is here because he is lonely.
JuanP on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 6:27 am
???? Juan didn’t post in this thread.
clogged, dirty juan did some identity theft the other day where he mocked me when I comment. I saved some excellent analysis by Antius. dirty juan does not like Antius either because dirty doesn’t like anyone that put his low IQ extremism into question
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 6:59 am
I like the part at 18:00 where Art explains the reason investors are invested in Shale..Is that they know peak oil is coming and there is going to be an oil shortage..Which will make oil prices moonbeam! So true..The smart money has never denied peak oil..
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 7:06 am
FBI: Man wanted to attack White House with anti-tank rocket
https://www.woodtv.com/news/national/fbi-man-wanted-to-attack-white-house-with-anti-tank-rocket/1707474690?fbclid=IwAR13zhuZy0fTJcN13r4FTEa8Tyu-8xWWtsGaVLf9rS9SX0n7OGQwVP-zgz0
Davy on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 7:15 am
Tearing the entire country apart is worth it MOB, as long as we get The Wall to keep those wetbacks out.
JuanP on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 7:22 am
I am back, bitches! I just got back from a surfing vacation in Costa Rica. I am recharged and refreshed, and ready to continue fucking with the Exceptionalist and his multiple personalities for the foreseeable future.
JuanP on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 7:24 am
Me baacccckkkk bitches
Cloggie on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 7:24 am
In Norway every second new car sold is an e-vehicle:
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/elektroautos-2-1-millionen-e-autos-laut-studie-weltweit-verkauft-a-1248454.html
Immediate response from Google engineers:
“this is in conflict with the laws of nature. Everybody and his mother know that e-vehicles and renewable energy don’t work. Well perhaps in 137 years. Or something. Shit, null-pointer exception again. Wonder why. This project of getting ADL-links on top of every search is more difficult that I though!”
Davy on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 7:30 am
Norway is a city state clogged with a huge oil backed fund and plenty of hydro and storage potential. This is not going to scale up to your euroland.
Cloggie on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 7:33 am
2.1 million e-vehicles sold world-wide in 2018 (2.4%)
This year 2.7 million expected.
2018:
China:…1255k
USA:……361k
EU:…….274k (NW-Europe)
A large jump is to be expected by 2020 when most companies will bring many new models to market.
“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.”
Albert Allen Bartlett (March 21, 1923 – September 7, 2013)
Antius on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 7:35 am
‘Antius, excellent recap of hydrogen. You have posted much of this already but that was nice and concise. Clogged will have a hard time refuting that. For clogged his PBM based renewable Empire rests on hydrogen. He knows the problems with storage so hydrogen is the key. He is crowing lately by a few studies that talk hydrogen up but of course there are currently no real world applications of scale. His Dutchland is already saturated with renewables and now the hard part of integrating the more expensive intermittency solving technologies is upon them and oops EUland is in recession. Hydrogen is well known and not likely to be improved on much with technology in regards to cost and efficiency as an energy vector. It will find its niche and this is vital. Making up for intermittency and driving a transport system on a grand scale is not going to be its strong suit. There are other systems better suited for that but all of them are expensive and have weaknesses. We need many technologies combined with behavior to find a good place in the coming decline that is inevitable of multiple reasons many that are not energy based although all of the decline variables are interrelated.’
Thanks. I agree that hydrogen is likely to have niche applications. These will centre on things that hydrogen can do and other storage options cannot. Specifically, hydrogen is a chemical reducing agent that can be used in heavy hydrocarbon cracking and biomass refining, as well as metal ore reduction. In fact, it is already used to a great extent in these applications. These applications play to hydrogen’s strengths; it is not necessary to store it or reconvert it into electricity in these applications. One simply vents the cathode of the electrolysis cell into the chemical reactor or electric furnace. Hydrogen may have other minor applications, specifically where a chemical fuel is considered preferable to direct electric. This may include high temperature heating processes in industry. Hydrogen may ultimately facilitate the use of airships for transport of heavy goods and even passengers. But these are small potatoes in the grand scheme of things.
Europe has modest amounts of energy storage in pumped hydro schemes. These work best if storage takes place on a timescale of hours. If you are paying to build a storage facility of any kind, the economics are best if the total cycle length is short. Hence pumped storage tends to be used to even out daily fluctuations.
Ultimately, at least in the short to medium term, Europe will need to apply renewable energy with only minimal storage. There are ways to do this, provided that one can live within certain limits. A distribution of capacity between many different types of renewable converter, spread over large geographical areas, will lessen the problems of intermittency, as Cloggie has remarked before. For occasional long lulls, open cycle gas turbines burning stored liquid fuels may provide an acceptable balance between cost and sustainability (these units are cheap to build, but expensive to operate). Slew loads are something that I have discussed at length before. These are things that can be rapidly switched on and off and the interruption to supply is not important, so long as total energy supplied, over a specified period of time, is sufficient. This is the case for practically anything involving hot or cold. On occasions, domestic consumers could go without power, or have less power and reschedule energy hungry activities for later on. Kris DeDecker of Low Tech Magazine gives a good summary as to why living on renewable energy will require compromises to energy security.
Cloggie on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 7:38 am
Norway is a city state clogged with a huge oil backed fund and plenty of hydro and storage potential. This is not going to scale up to your euroland.
Yeah, China is a city state too with lots of oil, exporting it in all directions!
/snicker
Seriously, davy made a colossal judgment of error around 2005 and invested heavily into the “collapse” idea and even managed to brainwash his entire family with it, that is now forced to live in some Missouri backwater, waiting for the skies to fall down, rather than his poor wife hitting the road in high heels in the city center of Milan, armed with davies credit card. Poor thang.
Davy is one of the most serious victims, Richard Heinberg ever made, although he can compete with makati for that title.
All dressed up and nowhere to go.
#WaitingForGodot
Antius on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 7:53 am
“A large jump is to be expected by 2020 when most companies will bring many new models to market.”
I am a proponent of EVs, but you overstate the matter. They involve higher total costs, when upfront, maintenance and electricity costs are all accounted for. At a time when cheaper IC powered vehicles are facing affordability problems, EVs are essentially luxury vehicles, bought by enthusiasts with plenty of disposable income and often subsidised by governments.
Consider how difficult it has been turning the tide. In EU countries, taxation is as much as 80% the cost of diesel or gasoline at the pump. EVs have slightly lower operating costs, because electricity is not taxed in the same way. EVs are also subsidised, whereas IC cars are taxed heavily. Under those conditions, it is not surprising that a minority of people could be convinced into buying EVs, in spite of their limitations.
What do you think is going to happen to the cost of buying and operating these vehicles, when they start to eat significantly into the tax revenues? I think the answer is obvious.
The EVs with the brightest future are those involved in public transport; particularly rail based systems, like trains, underground, trams and trolley buses. These have affordable cost structure to most people, provided that society is organised enough to make the necessary investments.
Cloggie on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 8:02 am
“I am a proponent of EVs, but you overstate the matter.”
I was just parotting der Spiegel, I have no opinion about car marketing data, nor interest. I hope the car economy breaks down, probably won’t happen though. I’ll settle for the promised 2030 TAAS (transport as a service). The fewer cars the better. I’m a 19th century fan, remember?
Davy on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 8:03 am
“Seriously, davy made a colossal judgment of error around 2005 and invested heavily into the “collapse” idea and even managed to brainwash his entire family with it, that is now forced to live in some Missouri backwater, waiting for the skies to fall down, rather than his poor wife hitting the road in high heels in the city center of Milan, armed with davies credit card. Poor thang.”
Clogged, I learned from my extremist doom error in 2005-2008. I am now much more mature and moderate as opposed to you who are an extremist wrapped up in a failing fantasy. My extended family does not live here clogged so quit making things up. This is my permaculture farm and I am very happy with it. My extended family makes your life look life 3rd world so don’t crow. I don’t live that way and I tell them why I don’t. I am living and preaching real green as opposed to your fake green war lusting shit. I will be in much better shape then you when shit hits the fan or the world heats up. Sorry for that dose of reality but you are going down too and you are prepping in all the wrong ways.
Davy on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 8:07 am
“I was just parotting der Spiegel, I have no opinion about car marketing data, nor interest. I hope the car economy breaks down, probably won’t happen though. I’ll settle for the promised 2030 TAAS”
Translation: This is not true I hype EV’s and AI-EV’s constantly so in effect this comment was deflection and retreat. This is what I am good at when put in a corner by reality.
JuanP on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 8:35 am
I like Antius! You are so full of shit, Davy. I never said I don’t like Antius because I do like him. He is the one who doesn’t like me but I don’t mind. I fucked with him a couple of times because he supported you against others. I respect Antius; he is smart, well educated, and mostly behaves well towards others. It is obvious that he is trying to be civilized, something I gave up on here some time back thanks to you. The old timers here know that I was extremely patient with you and contributed here until I reached the conclusion that it was pointless. Antius is biased where his country and culture are concerned, but I don’t blame him for that. The Americans and the English are the two most thoroughly brainwashed populations on the planet, and I know it is almost impossible for both of you to overcome that brainwashing.
JuanP on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 8:42 am
My condo just installed 35 charging stations in the parking lot after debating about it for five years. Users will pay extra for them. All but three were rented on the spot, so they are building 25 more. My wife and I are seriously thinking about buying an EV as our second car. My brother has had a Nissan Leaf for years and loves it. I really like the idea of never having to go to a gas station again, but that would require both cars being electric. I will make the switch anytime now.
Antius on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 8:47 am
Some real hydrogen powered vehicles are shown in the link below.
https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2014/07/rolling-gasified-coal-gas-bag-vehicles/
Gas bag vehicles, especially buses, are a tried and tested solution that has been put to use in cities all over the world for about a century now. Of course, these were not deployed as part of an energy storage scheme. The hydrogen was produced by reacting steam with coal. So it was really a way of making low grade fossil fuels useful for powering transport.
Hydrogen at ambient pressure has an energy density of about 11MJ per cubic metre. A standard sized bus has dimensions ~2.5x10m and consumes ~1MJ of mechanical power per km. Assuming that the bus is powered by a compression ignition engine some 40% efficient, then a gas bag some 2.5x10x1m would contain enough gas to power the bus for 112km. That is workable, though it is clearly a very limited solution.
Some calcs and caveats.
(1) Assuming that hydrogen can be produced in an electrolysis cell at 70% efficiency and burned in an IC engine at 40% efficiency, with no other losses in between, then total efficiency is 28%.
(2) If electric power is available at a cost of $0.12/kWh for a large electrolysis unit, then the energy cost alone is $0.12/MJ of H2 gas. That is about $5 for the energy equivalent of about 1 litre of diesel. Capital costs and distribution costs will be on top of this, maybe $7.5 per litre-equivalent? By comparison, regular diesel sells for about $0.5 per litre before tax. The greater cost of fuel is less of an issue in a public transport vehicle, because energy consumption per passenger-km is substantially lower than a car.
(3) We can avoid a lot of the costs and technical difficulties associated with hydrogen storage by keeping reserve supply in a gasometer at close to ambient pressure and distributing it at ambient pressure. At ambient pressure, hydrogen could be transported using thin-walled pipes without the dangers associated with leakage or bursting. These are low-tech and relatively low-cost systems. The downside is that they may store a day’s worth of hydrogen at most.
(4) Buses are more suitable than cars for this type of technology because (a) the bag is bulky, limiting the vehicle to low speeds; (b) The frontal area (and aerodynamic drag) per unit volume of a bus is much lower than a car; (c) The bus follows specific routes, allowing the necessary infrastructure to be put in place; (d) Buses are inherently more energy efficient, making the cost easier to sustain.
(5) The hydrogen system could be powered by a mixture of utility grade solar and wind power at the site of the electrolysis cell. This reduces the need for transmission.
Davy on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 9:03 am
You don’t respect anyone dirty Juan including yourself. You are a natural born liar. You have turned this board into a nasty place to play stupid mind games. When you were surfing it was quiet and respectful except for your drug induced quick visits from the local Internet cafe.
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 9:51 am
Clogg
Norway is one of the smallest countries on earth..The city of Los los angeles has more people..Talk about cherry picking..And their government had to give away the farm..Which isn’t sustainable..
And EV battery gets damaged in temperatures above 86 degrees or in freezing weather..
https://phys.org/news/2018-04-electric-vehicle-revolution-problems.html?fbclid=IwAR3YEPXwfniIp_8Nq9GpYbDqUCok4lvCeVv26R-lo0x1bgFWK2lh4-RNARU#nRlv
Warning of shortage of essential minerals for laptops, cell phones, electric cars, solar panels, wiring
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/03/170320110042.htm
Now stop spamming this site with your non credible sources..
Davy on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 11:02 am
“I like Antius! You are so full of shit, Davy.”
Looks like I got caught lying through my teeth again.
Sorry everyone, I’m having a hard time getting my shit together these days.
Call me a dumbass
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 11:13 am
Clogg thinks he will win a civil war with these people?
https://i.redd.it/qius2v3jjza21.jpg
HAHAH!