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“Energy Dominance,” what does it mean? Decoding a Fashionable Slogan

“Energy Dominance,” what does it mean? Decoding a Fashionable Slogan thumbnail

“Now, I know for a fact that American energy dominance is within our grasp as a nation.” Ryan Zinke, U.S. Secretary of the Interior (source)

“All Warfare is Based on Deception” Sun Tzu, “The Art of War”

Over nearly a half-century, since the time of Richard Nixon, American presidents have proclaimed the need for “energy independence” for the US, without ever succeeding in attaining it. During the past few years, it has become fashionable to say that the US has, in fact, become energy independent, even though it is not true. And, doubling down on this concept, there came the idea of “energy dominance,” introduced by the Trump administration in June 2017.  It is now used at all levels in the press and in the political debate.

No doubt, the US has good reasons to be bullish on oil production. Of the three major world producers, it is the only one growing: it has overtaken Saudi Arabia and it seems to be poised to overtake Russia in a few years. (graphic source).

This rebound in the US production after the decline that started in the early 1970s is nearly miraculous. And the miracle as a name: shale oil. A great success, sure, but, if you think about it, the whole story looks weird: the US is trying to gain this “dominance” by means of resources which, once burned, will be forever gone. It is like people competing at who is burning their own house faster. What sense does it make?

Art Berman keeps telling us that shale oil is an expensive resource that could be produced at a profit only for market conditions that are unrealistic to expect. So far, much more money has been poured into shale oil production than it has returned from the sales of shale oil. “Energy dominance” seems to be just an elaborate way to lose money and resources. Again, what sense does that make?

But there is a logic in the term “energy dominance.” It has to do with the way slogans are used in politics: a slogan is not just a compact way of expressing a certain political concept, it is often a coded message that hides much more than it says. So, we know that “bringing democracy” to a foreign country means to bomb it to smithereens. “Make America great again” means subsidizing the fossil fuel industry. “The Indispensable Country” means, “The American Empire.” And more.

There is nothing wrong in using coded slogans: you only have to know how to decode them. So, “energy dominance” has to be decoded and turned into “military dominance.” Then, things start making sense.

One quick note before you accuse me of being a conspiracy theorist: I am reasonably sure that there is no “control room” in a dark basement of the Pentagon or of the White House deciding long-term economic and military objectives. The decision mechanism of modern states is collective and networked. It is akin to that of anthills: there is nobody in charge, plenty of people push in different directions and, eventually, the giant engine may move in a certain direction.

So, the fact that so much money has been directed toward the exploitation of shale oil and gas doesn’t mean that someone at the top decided that it was the thing to be done. It is simply, that investors tend to direct their financial resources where they think they’ll have the highest return in the shortest time. Investing in shale oil doesn’t generate profits, but it moves money, benefits contractors, raises the GDP, and the more money is invested the more expectations of profits grow.

But there is more than that in this story: it is the military side. We all know that wars are won by the side that can pour more resources into the fight. It was in this way that the first and the second world war were won: the allies could produce more energy in the form of oil, coal, and gas. And with these energy sources, they could produce more stuff, planes, tanks, cannons, bombs, bullets, and more stuff that was thrown at the Germans until they gave up. Matthieu Auzeannau gives us plenty of examples of this mechanism in his book “Oil, Power, and War.” The Germans were always lacking enough oil to power their military machine and that’s why they were doomed from the beginning.

For the military, the lesson of the past world wars is that wars are won by the side which has the largest oil supply. And they remember it. So, if you want to attain military dominance, energy independence is not enough, you need to attain energy dominance.

And so, everything makes sense, also in view of some recent results on the statistical patterns of wars. Wars, it seems, are correlated to the thermodynamic phenomenon of entropy dissipation in complex systems. The more energy there is to dissipate, the faster it is dissipated. And if this dissipation is really fast, it may take the shape of a war — surely war is the fastest way to destroy (dissipate) accumulated resources. But, in order to dissipate resources, you need to accumulate them first, and that’s the role of shale oil in the current situation.

Which means that shale oil is not a natural resource, it is a military resource. As such, it doesn’t matter if it brings a profit or not for the investors. What matters is how it can be used to maintain and expand that gigantic social and economic structure that we call “Globalization” (another slogan that can be decoded as “the global empire”).

As long as the production of shale oil increases, we face the risk of a new, major world war. We can only hope that the shale bubble bursts by itself first. One more good reason why a Seneca Collapse of oil production would be good for all of us.

Cassandra’s legacy by Ugo Bardi



83 Comments on "“Energy Dominance,” what does it mean? Decoding a Fashionable Slogan"

  1. rockman on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 3:06 pm 

    “As long as the production of shale oil increases, we face the risk of a new, major world war. We can only hope that the shale bubble bursts by itself first.”

    Best joke of the New Year so far. LOL. Ugo seems to contradict his argument so many times I lost count. Maybe it’s a translation problem.

  2. shortonoil on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 3:36 pm 

    December 2018,
    US shale production 8.03 mb/d.
    Legacy decline 17.8% per year (89% first 60 months)
    Yearly decline 8.03 mb/d * 0.178 = 1.43 mb/d
    New production per operating rig 679 barrels per day
    Rigs required to compensate for decline = 1.43 mb/d/ 679 = 2106 rigs
    There are now less than 900 rigs running in the shale patch

    Shale can not overcome its 1.43 mb/d legacy decline with less than 2,106 rigs. The Shale age is over, which is no big loss because it never made any money to begin with.

  3. GetWaitForFuelShortage on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 5:40 pm 

    I love this 1 min clip from paris prostedt.
    I love when the girl with blonde goes toward the police to beat him and he sparys him on her face and she barely. She is like, that all you have. I go back often to this clik when I need a small laught.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwUrAdMpCU0

  4. Anonymous on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 8:03 pm 

    What a mess. A mishmash of different ideas. Throwing out fancy terms instead of a logical argument. I am glad the guy is teaching scient for poets. I wouldn’t trust him to do basic stoichiometry problems.

    Oh…and he used a 9 month old chart (click the link for chart source). We’ve already left Russia in the dust.

  5. makati1 on Mon, 7th Jan 2019 8:54 pm 

    Anon, slurp up that US Koolaid. You actually believe the US is doing what it claims? You obviously doesn’t recognize propaganda bullshit when you see it. Hugo is doing nothing more than posting US propaganda.

    At least Hugo gets the fact that the oily numbers will vaporize when the SHTF and the debts have to be paid. Fraking is a losing deal and always has been. I hope you are not invested in that con game.

  6. Anonymouse on Tue, 8th Jan 2019 2:35 am 

    Call him by his ‘real’ name mak, Nonytard. Or Econ 101, ‘coffeeguyz, etc. He goes by those as well.

    And yes, he truely is, a Nonytard.

  7. Davy on Tue, 8th Jan 2019 3:13 am 

    “Call him by his ‘real’ name mak, Nonytard.”

    The guy is intelligent as opposed to unintelligent emotional crud like you.

  8. Cloggie on Tue, 8th Jan 2019 10:50 am 

    Volkswagen to produce the fuel of the future: electricity:

    http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/volkswagen-will-stromkonzern-werden-a-1246997.html

    Volkswagen has announced it wants to invest in renewable energy to ensure there is sufficient electricity to power (preferably VW) e-vehicles.

    Again, what does the renewable energy transition mean, painting with a broad brush?

    – double electricity production
    – reduce energy leaks with 2/3 through superb isolation
    – replace every radiator with electrical heat pumps
    – store seasonal heat, from industry and solar collectors
    – use water electrolysers to produce hydrogen. Max storage is about 43% of annual consumption

    This is the broad picture.

    In other words, we need more electricity output. It is of course very welcome if third parties volunteer to install additional capacity to realize this.

    How much large 6 MW windturbines does a country need to power its car fleet? Surprisingly few. Example Holland with a private car fleet of 8 million… [drumroll]

    222

    Or 111 if the upcoming 12 MW machines are to installed.

    Piece of cake.

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/07/21/opel-ampera-e-chevrolet-bolt/

  9. Antius on Tue, 8th Jan 2019 12:32 pm 

    “Again, what does the renewable energy transition mean, painting with a broad brush?
    – double electricity production
    – reduce energy leaks with 2/3 through superb isolation
    – replace every radiator with electrical heat pumps
    – store seasonal heat, from industry and solar collectors
    – use water electrolysers to produce hydrogen. Max storage is about 43% of annual consumption
    This is the broad picture.”

    All as simple as that?

    For the EA7 countries – France, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal & Spain; prosperity declined by 9% between 2000 and 2017 (I don’t think this even takes into account tax) and total debt per capita increased by 61%.

    https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2018/12/12/141-englands-glory-or-ship-of-fools/

    When taxes are taken into account, disposable prosperity per capita has declined by 38% in France and something like 25% across the entire EU. Beneath the seemingly cheery news of slowly declining government debt-GDP ratio, people are getting poorer.

    https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2018/12/30/143-fire-and-ice-part-one/

    The real cost of doubling electricity production and investing in all of the infrastructure needed to negate the problems introduced by intermittency will be large indeed. They will ultimately need to be covered by higher energy bills and higher costs of every economic good, as higher energy costs magnify the cost of goods and services. This will happen at a time when people are least able to afford it.

    It would be foolhardy to expect an energy transition of this magnitude to be easy. My guess is that energy consumption will need to decline significantly and electric cars probably won’t be affordable to most people ten years from now. Get ready for a much poorer future. We are already poorer now than we were 15 years ago.

  10. Cloggie on Tue, 8th Jan 2019 12:59 pm 

    “All as simple as that?”

    As I said, “painting with a broad brush”.

    For the EA7 countries – France, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal & Spain; prosperity declined by 9% between 2000 and 2017 (I don’t think this even takes into account tax) and total debt per capita increased by 61%

    Never heard of EA7 countries.

    Regarding my country, study by one of the largest Dutch banks:

    https://economie.rabobank.com/publicaties/2018/februari/besteedbaar-inkomen-huishoudens-nederland-staat-vrijwel-stil/

    “Besteedbaar inkomen van huishoudens staat al bijna veertig jaar vrijwel stil”
    (real disposable income households has grown hardly at all over the last 40 years, see graph. It hasn’t declined)

    “Een groter deel van het inkomen gaat naar de overheid”
    (A larger share on the income goes to the government. In other words, the economy has very well grown, but most of the growth went to the collective)

    “Inkomensdeel van bedrijven het hardst gegroeid”
    (But the largest share of the extra income went to the corporate sector)

    Conclusion: the real economy has very well grown, but most of the growth went to the government and even more to companies.

    The government has spent much of the income to invaders (10% or more).

    That’s why we need a “deplorable reaction”, that is now underway.

    This entire peak oil circus that is supposed to explain it all is baloney.

    Growth Netherlands and Germany after the war, substantial:

    http://www.luxetveritas.nl/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Gerned11.png

    http://www.luxetveritas.nl/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Gerned3.png

    Dutch public debt below 60%:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/eb/Staatsschuld_pct_bbp_recent.png

    In other words, we have solid public finances, a very healthy corporate sector that creates almost full employment. Perhaps now the time has arrived for an extra private dime to be spent. And of course closing the borders for invaders.

  11. Cloggie on Wed, 9th Jan 2019 2:33 pm 

    Regarding the discussion yesterday about the alleged “collapse” the West is supposed to be in…

    https://www.ed.nl/economie/huizenprijzen-stijgen-door-tot-2021-woningverkopen-lopen-verder-terug~a9edea0b/

    Netherlands: another 10% increase value homes expected until in 2021 stabilization will set in.

    KLM passenger number 2011-2018 (million):

    2011 – 25.3
    2012 – 25.8
    2013 – 26.6
    2014 – 27.7
    2015 – 28.6
    2016 – 30.4
    2017 – 32.7
    2018 – 34.2

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KLM

    https://www.nu.nl/ondernemen/5672522/klm-vervoerde-recordaantal-passagiers-in-2018.html

    If this is collapse, then more of it!

  12. I AM THE MOB on Wed, 9th Jan 2019 2:46 pm 

    CLogg

    Lets look at Netherlands GDP and economy..Just not cherry pick data

    GDP

    You have had a recession in 2002,2009,2012..

    Your economy is broken..No wonder nazis are back..

    1960’s GDP average 5 percent

    Post 2009 GDP average 1 percent

    Source: World Bank
    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?locati&locations=NL

  13. I AM THE MOB on Wed, 9th Jan 2019 2:48 pm 

    Renewable energy ‘simply won’t work’: Top Google engineers
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/11/21/renewable_energy_simply_wont_work_google_renewables_engineers/

    Study predicts world economy unlikely to stop relying on fossil fuels
    https://phys.org/news/2016-02-world-economy-fossil-fuels.html

  14. Cloggie on Wed, 9th Jan 2019 3:00 pm 

    Renewable energy ‘simply won’t work’: Top Google engineers

    Google is right, it won’t work, not in America. Too many people there saying it won’t work, creating for themselves the excuses to not even have to try. Too many Americans are in love with the idea of collapse. This board is proof.

    Number of drugs deaths per million:

    US – 822
    UK – 60
    EU – 22

    Says it all, depression where-ever you look. US in Weimar mode. And we all know what came after Weimar.lol

    The slogan of the next Dems presidential candidate: “No, we can’t!”

    Source: World Bank

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?locati&locations=NL

    Nice picture, almost all the time in the plus. Only the dip in 2009 was caused entirely by the US and its subprime loan disaster, caused by US politicians who summoned US bankers that they should provide mortgages to Leroy, even without sufficient securities. The bankers knew very well that Leroy would default, so they quickly managed to unload a lot of the junk onto Europe, who until then, had an unjustified trust in the strength of the US economy. Won’t happen again.

  15. I AM THE MOB on Wed, 9th Jan 2019 3:02 pm 

    Conservatives over 65 ‘most likely to share fake news on Facebook’, Study finds

    Group is seven-times more likely to share disinformation on social media than people aged 18 to 29

    https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/facebook-fake-news-share-old-republican-conservative-new-york-university-study-a8719521.html

  16. Antius on Wed, 9th Jan 2019 3:35 pm 

    Some world bank figures illustrate just how booming the Netherlands economy is. And believe it or not, it is one of the Eurozones healthier economies.

    Netherlands GDP per capita in constant local currency units.

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KN?locations=NL

    In current US dollars:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=NL

    Purchasing power parity:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?locations=NL

    None of the measures indicate robust growth. Even on purchasing power parity, GDP is not much higher now that it was a decade ago. And modest growth only occurred because the ECB inflated both the money supply and its balance sheet.

    The news isn’t much better for any other developed economy. And we are heading into another recession, at which point the quadrupled financial liabilities (since the 2008 recession) are going to bite hard. This time, debts are high enough to destabilise currencies.

  17. Here we go again on Wed, 9th Jan 2019 4:00 pm 

    Saudi Arabia has always claimed vast oil reserves. An audit just proved it’s right
    https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/01/09/business/saudi-arabia-oil-gas-reserves/index.html
    Dubai (CNN Business) Saudi Arabia has opened up its vast energy reserves to independent auditors for the first time, a move that could help it revive plans to sell shares in state oil giant Aramco.

    The government of Saudi Arabia said in a statement Wednesday that US energy consultancy DeGolyer & MacNaughton had concluded that its oil reserves total 268.5 billion barrels.

    The estimate is slightly higher than the 266.3 billion barrel figure previously published by the Saudi government

  18. Antius on Wed, 9th Jan 2019 4:11 pm 

    Renewable energy won’t work in the context of the way we live today. Americans today consume twice as much energy per capita as Europeans. And it is used in hugely wasteful ways. Giant overheated houses; huge SUVs weighing literally tonnes to transport a single overweight human; huge throughput of processed materials in the form of consumer shit that no one needs. It is also a just-in-time way of life, that immediately necessitates the use of high power controllable power sources – unsuitable for intermittent power sources.

    Living on renewable energy sources requires living on more modest amounts of variable energy. To do that successfully will require a very different way of life.

    Think walkable cities, with people living close to where they work. Think in terms of variable work patterns that respond to changes in energy supply – you may work 80 hours one week if the wind or sun are abundant, but only 20 hours a week during low energy periods. Think in terms of smaller retail stores closer to where you live. Most transport is by foot or by bike, with longer distance journeys by bus or rail. Transport of goods will be by ship, rail, truck or pipeline. Habitation will involve more cohousing than we see today. Life will involve sharing and cooperating more on a local level, thus reducing energy demand and being better suited to intermittent energy. Consumer culture will be replaced by a philosophy that goods should be made once, should last a lifetime and should be repairable.

    Energy consumption will be a fraction of what it is now and living patterns will be adjusted to intermittent energy. Will life be poorer? To a certain extent. But it will also be healthier and more meaningful.

    Building enough renewable energy sources to support this sort of scaled down and more efficient way of life, is achievable. Trying to support the current American way of life, with all of it’s profligate energy use and need for storage to support a just-in-time way of life, will never be affordable or achievable. That sort of life only works when energy is almost free. So Mob’s over-quoted Google engineers are correct in that context.

  19. I AM THE MOB on Wed, 9th Jan 2019 4:20 pm 

    Govt economic advisor warns British defense planners that OECD growth is ending

    “A fascinating — if worrying — contention is that the peak growth rates of the 1960s were only possible at all on the back of a huge and deeply destructive exploitation of dirty fossil fuels; something that can be ill afforded — even if it were available — in the era of dangerous climate change and declining resource quality. Low (and declining) rates of economic growth may well be the ‘new normal’.”

    He cites former World Bank chief economic Larry Summers, for instance, who has recently observed:

    “The underlying problem may be there forever.”

    “Whereas for the global GDP per capita, the point at which growth disappeares is more than 60 years into the future, for GDP per capita in the OECD nations, the point is brought forwards dramatically. In less than a decade, on current trends, there would be no growth at all in GDP per capita across the OECD nations.”

    https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/govt-economic-advisor-warns-british-defence-planners-that-growth-is-ending-abf806f17845

  20. Cloggie on Wed, 9th Jan 2019 5:10 pm 

    “Happiest day of her life!”

    Richest man on earth Jeff Bezos announces the divorce from his wife.

    https://www.ed.nl/economie/rijkste-man-op-aarde-kondigt-scheiding-aan~aace1e4b/

  21. Cloggie on Wed, 9th Jan 2019 5:26 pm 

    @Antius

    “Self-driving cars will never work” latest:

    https://www.ed.nl/economie/nxp-in-eindhoven-werkt-met-franse-kalray-aan-zelfrijdende-autochips~a3604d1d/

    Eindhoven-based chip manufacturer goes into chip-making for self-driving cars, together with French Kalray, despite the fact that mobster and his mother know it is never going to work, like nothing is going to work anyway, in their view.

    NXP is located on the same premises where I currently work, the High-Tech Campus Eindhoven, the Silicon valley of IT-hardware, currently employing 12,000 people, mostly high-profile engineers:

    https://www.ed.nl/economie/high-tech-campus-in-eindhoven-haalt-kapitaal-op-voor-verdere-uitbreiding~adaa7599/

    The last quarter of empty space is going to be filled up with new buildings in the coming years, mostly for startups.

    https://innovationorigins.com/netherlands-new-silicon-valley-eindhoven/

    https://www.hightechcampus.com/companies/solliance

    Next to the Hightech Campus there is the ASML campus of roughly the same size. They are the world lithography monopolist. Without them Apple, Samsung, Intel, AMD, etc., would be nowhere:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zY_EVoNmZvQ

    Physics Nirvana. Folks like Antius can start tomorrow, just saying.

  22. I AM THE MOB on Wed, 9th Jan 2019 6:22 pm 

    Self-Driving Cars Will Always Be Limited. Even the Industry Leader Admits it.
    https://medium.com/radical-urbanist/self-driving-cars-will-always-be-limited-even-the-industry-leader-admits-it-c5fe5aa01699

    Waymo CEO: Autonomous cars won’t ever be able to drive in all conditions
    https://www.cnet.com/news/alphabet-google-waymo-ceo-john-krafcik-autonomous-cars-wont-ever-be-able-to-drive-in-all-conditions/

    They can’t work in the rain or snow..Because the censors can’t see the road or objects around them..So that means the majority of the planet can’t use them..Maybe they can make them into dune buggy’s..

    LMFAO!

  23. I AM THE MOB on Wed, 9th Jan 2019 6:24 pm 

    Self-driving Uber kills Arizona woman in first fatal crash
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/mar/19/uber-self-driving-car-kills-woman-arizona-tempe

    Consumers Don’t Really Want Self-Driving Cars, MIT Study Finds
    http://agelab.mit.edu/news/consumers-dont-really-want-self-driving-cars-mit-study-finds

    Tires Slashed, Guns Pulled On Self-Driving Cars As Arizona Residents Revolt
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/31/us/waymo-self-driving-cars-arizona-attacks.html

    Public’s trust in self-driving cars is plunging — for good reason
    https://driving.ca/auto-news/news/publics-trust-in-self-driving-cars-is-plunging-for-good-reason

  24. I AM THE MOB on Wed, 9th Jan 2019 6:29 pm 

    Record-Breaking Number Of Americans Want To Get Out Of U.S. Forever

    https://news.yahoo.com/record-breaking-number-americans-want-074047451.html?.tsrc=daily_mail&uh_test=1_11&fbclid=IwAR1J-yzjsx4Gb5LdG3M06DpmWIWG0CV4vbWziGEPk35vuUpy2hbrCSmysC8

    I’m going down with the ship, with honor.Like the musicians on titanic I’ll play us out..

  25. makati1 on Wed, 9th Jan 2019 7:09 pm 

    MOB, they didn’t have a choice. Not enough life boats. You do, so your remark is just another suicidal excuse. You could leave, but you don’t want to make the effort. I did and don’t regret it. Easy? No. Worth it? Yep!

  26. Antius on Wed, 9th Jan 2019 9:42 pm 

    Re self-driving cars. Simple economics will ultimately ‘drive’ us to this solution.
    Operationally, this is not an easy problem to solve. There will be accidents along the way, just as there are with any developing technology.

    But the financial incentives to make it work only grow stronger with time. Over the past decade, car travel has become progressively less affordable to large parts of society, with many young people unable or unwilling to make the investment in learning to drive and buying a car, due to affordability issues.
    Electric vehicles have higher upfront cost and have high service cost as well, given the need for battery replacement. Private ownership is not financially attractive.

    The autonomous vehicle is the only way that car travel will ultimately be affordable to most people. And the scale of financial rewards are large enough to ensure that this idea will be continuously pursued until computer technology is up to the task.

  27. Antius on Wed, 9th Jan 2019 10:11 pm 

    Refrigeration is one of the largest parts of household energy budgets. But it is often used inefficiently and needlessly.

    For centuries up until the 1970s, most middle-class and wealthy houses in the UK had a larder or pantry, which was a cool, north facing room for storing food.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larder

    In the US something similar was developed in the form of the Root cellar, which had the advantage of using the thermal mass of the earth to maintain a constant average annual temperature.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Root_cellar

    As electricity supply is increasingly dominated by intermittent sources, food storage in this way could be due for a comeback. Modern refrigerators don’t work well in situations where power can switch off for hours at a time, because they have poor thermal mass.

    However, food storage cellars do not require continuous power. They could be built communally, with individual compartments for each house. A small heat pump would be sufficient to keep the space close to or beneath freezing. The thermal mass of the surrounding soil is such that the heat pump would only need to activate intermittently to keep the space sufficiently cool.

  28. makati1 on Wed, 9th Jan 2019 10:23 pm 

    Yes, Antius, car travel has become more expensive and will continue to do so until it ceases to exist for you and me. Self driving cars are a techie dream that will end when the SHTF.

    But a different kind of car is not going to be the future. Zero cars will. Public transportation like buses and trains, not cars. Bicycles, motor bikes, even motor trikes like they have here.

    A small motor bike with a sidecar attachment moves a lot of the Philippine population. I live in the future of transportation. You do not. Tech is not the answer, it is the problem.

    There are about 1 million cars (including taxis) in the Philippines for a population of 105 million. There are about 300 million cars in the US for 325 million people.

    Who will miss cheap FFs the most? Hint: Not Filipinos.

  29. makati1 on Wed, 9th Jan 2019 10:36 pm 

    Antius, we beat the power blips here by freezing blocks of ice in plastic containers and use them to keep the freezer full. We have weathered more than a full day without electric that way.

    I doubt that a ‘community anything’ is going to work in the US. People are no longer community oriented. Most do not even know their neighbors, or trust them.

    Here, there are many, if not most, who do not have electric and/or cannot afford the luxury of a refrigerator. They manage quite well with other methods in a tropical climate.

    That is one of the reasons I believe that a collapse will not affect most of the people here, myself included. City folks will just move back to their country relatives.

    Our farm is a family project and can/will house most of my partner’s family and any of my US family that may relocate here. About 20+ at last count, including the newest, not a year old yet. Prep is ongoing.

  30. Davy on Thu, 10th Jan 2019 5:18 am 

    Autonomous vehicle will likely be more or less made operational. We have seen what can be done when we allow economies of scale and widespread acceptance to spread technologies. Early ICE vehicles are a perfect example. Much of the technology has already been perfected through development of other applications. The earth has been mapped. EV’s are advancing at break neck speed. The public is being conditioned to these changes in many places. The conditions present when autonomous vehicles operate will likely not stop them. I would also mention safety. In places where driving is essential old people are driving that shouldn’t. Every car on the road is a potential distracted driver on their smart phone. The technology and operational conditions appear to be achievable and might even reduce safety issues.

    The need for AV’s and EV’s is also significant if you view our society in a net energy decline. We need to scale efficiencies for this decline. The private vehicle is a luxury we soon will not be able to afford. Certain discretionary driving habits allowed by private vehicles is absurd. Joy rides and road trips need to end or be reduced or be done on mass transit type platforms. Vehicles purchased for status or thrill needs to end. Roughly 30% of primary energy use is transport related. AV’s offer a way to control and reduce this behavior.

    Autonomous vehicles will not suit all locations. Rural and poor areas will likely not be reached unless a subsidy is applied. Does society have the resources? Do these regions even need AV’s or can other arrangements be made? Can this population learn to be more local and live with the intermittency of mobility? Slow affordable trains should come back in these areas.

    The biggest issue with AV technology is systematic affordability. This is true with renewables also. We can make a nation rich by dumping investment on them. We have seen what oil wealth has done so technology and investment will likely reach some areas where there is comparative advantage. I don’t see comparative advantage except in localized rich and advanced regions. These regions depend on the rest of the world so unless the rest of the world has a plan then AV’s EV’s will not save us. I say save us because high mobility is absolutely essential to maintaining life as we know it. How long is the global system going to hold together in robust economic activity we have now to grow all these futuristic technologies?

    The biggest problem I have with techno optimist and social cornucopians is this systematic point. We may not have the affluence to transition transport to EV’s and AV’s. There are so many forces and feed backs happening now eroding affluence. The affluence that is happening now is in many case nonproductive or nonperforming. When fancy toys with no future are purchased on a large scale how systematically sound is that for long term affluence? How many of these expensive investments both public and private are really malinvestment that will actually hurt us going forward? Many of these malinvestments are part of our delusional perception of our fragile affluence. I see stranded assets everywhere when I look at our civilization from a systematic view point in regards to decline. We have the affordability issue of energy but also our way of life. AV’s are just more of this drive for efficiency and performance instead of changing behavior and considering ways to lower footprints and embrace localism with seasonality and intermittency.

    We can us AV’s and EV’s in a demand management format and leap frog current ICE vehicles with energy usage but can we leap frog the affordability issues of the technology. This is the reason I see AV and EV’s as niches of transformation not a transition paradigm. They will help us mitigate and adapt to a declining net energy and allow us to make some technological changes to the way we do things. They do not represent a platform of change in regards transitioning out of our energy trap and planetary footprint issues. They help to a point and they should be embraced. They will do well in some places.

    The primary issue for us today with anything we look at is macro affordability of globalism. Globalism has delocalized the earth. It has created a way of life that must have high energy and mobility to be maintained. There are laws of nature being violated with this narrative. It is a narrative that has been made into concrete and steel. It cannot be adapted easily. It can be managed in decline. It likely cannot be grown much more and the more we take these systems into the complicated the more our complex life in decline will punish us. We should utilize this technology but while we are changing attitudes and behaviors with a proper narrative of decline. This may be beyond our late stage civilization abilities until an existential crisis hits. Will that be too late. Maybe not but this is what honest science is hinting at. There is plenty of corrupted science forecasting fantastic futures based on tech. Look where tech has got us for a cometary on that. Our development has been based on anything goes that drives profit. We cannot survive now without tech. We are too dependent on it but more than ever with us approaching the boundaries of systematic sustainability what we need is proper behavior and adapted lifestyles. That may be too much to ask of a people that have lost their way.

  31. Davy on Thu, 10th Jan 2019 5:47 am 

    Demand destruction? Forecast for global vehicle volume is not down much but it is down which is a new force dragging global growth. China, Europe, and the US are seeing pressure from a very important economic segment.

    “China Car Sales Collapse: First Annual Drop In Over 20 Years”
    https://tinyurl.com/yau7f6l8

    “After we previously reported that UK car registrations just fell at their sharpest rate since the financial crisis, the sharp plunge of auto sales in China has also continued: retail sales of passenger vehicles – which include sedans, MPVs, mini-vans and SUVs – in China fell a whopping 19% in 2018 to 2.26 million units.”

    “China is spearheading what is shaping up as a painfully anemic year for the industry around the world. The automobile industry in China has been crippled, partly as a result of this trade war, partly due to the ongoing domestic economic slowdown in the mainland, and absent major subsidies – which don’t appear to be coming – the outlook for 2019 is not promising.”

    “Jonas expects global volume in 2019 to fall to 82.1 million units versus 82.4 million units in 2018. His team also expects higher input costs, combined with rising rates and rising R&D expense, to further pressure 2019 numbers. Aside from the obvious (lack of volume growth), he predicts tariff related costs will still be an overhang for automakers heading into the new year.”

  32. Davy on Thu, 10th Jan 2019 6:27 am 

    “Ford To Cut Thousands Of European Jobs, Close Factories In “Major Restructuring”
    https://tinyurl.com/y82ew5y3

    “In the latest confirmation that global auto sales are sliding and that US automakers are struggling to compete in the hypercompetitive European car market – something that President Trump might interpret as another reason to press ahead with auto tariffs presently being studied by the Commerce Department – Ford has announced a massive ‘restructuring’ of its European operations, following in the footsteps of GM’s much broader restructuring, that will entail thousands of job cuts and possibly factory closures. The cuts are hardly a surprise after the carmaker’s foreign profits have plunged over the past two years thanks in part to exchange rate-related losses spurred by the strength of the dollar, as well as poor sales of its diesel models. According to the BBC, which broke the story, Ford will lay off ‘thousands’ of workers and contemplate factory closures. Ford’s decision to curtail its European operations comes two years after GM sold its European subsidiary to French carmaker Peugeot.”

  33. I AM THE MOB on Thu, 10th Jan 2019 7:49 am 

    Davy

    You are an idiot..Driverless cars cant drive in the rain or snow..The censors can’t see the road and objects around them..This is what the google driver less car CEO of Waymo said recently..

    They are just like 3D television and virtual reality..

    LMFAO!

  34. Anonymouse on Thu, 10th Jan 2019 7:59 am 

    No one reads your rambling turd salads dumbass, who are you talking to anyhow?? Your sock puppet I AM THE DAVYTURD here? I bet you him and have all kinds of interesting ‘debates’ in the 45 mins or so each day you are not actively mashing the refresh button on your discount cell-phones browser.

  35. Davy on Thu, 10th Jan 2019 8:00 am 

    “Driverless cars cant drive in the rain or snow..The censors can’t see the road and objects around them.”

    Got reference? I made a point without reference so I would appreciate your reference unless you are making a point without reference like I did. Saying someone said something does not cut it. I also made the point they will likely be improved on such that conditions are much less an issue. Conditions are an issue with human drivers now BTW. “The conditions present when autonomous vehicles operate will likely not stop them” was from my comment. “Likely” means they may but have not yet. Is the idiot part of your comment because your POV feels threatened?

  36. Davy on Thu, 10th Jan 2019 8:09 am 

    “No one reads your rambling turd salads dumbass, who are you talking to anyhow??”
    Who is no one? You?? Makati1 and JuanP do I can assure you because they look to attack me whenever they can. Really, I could give a shit if anyone reads my comments. I write them as a mental workout. I right them as a process of researching and putting ideas into a statement. IMA makati1 or cloggie say much more than I do typically over several comments. These multiple comments are generally of topic and inflammatory. You might try the same thing I am doing because you rarely if ever say anything and when you do you don’t use proper English grammar, spelling, and the content is warped with your own personal dysfunctional thinking. OH, I know you can spell and use grammar but you don’t because you try to be cute with your comment. It instead comes off like a dork salad that is stupid and nonsensical.

    “Your sock puppet I AM THE DAVYTURD here? I bet you him and have all kinds of interesting ‘debates’ in the 45 mins or so each day you are not actively mashing the refresh button on your discount cell-phones browser.”
    Sure thing anon, I AM the MOB is me lol. I think you have about worn that one out 100 times so that you sound emotionally sidetracked. MOB and I must make you freak out and you can’t control yourself. Did an American make you or your dad choke on teeth in the past? I think you must have got your Canadian ass kicked by and American and now are forever pissed off. LMFAO

  37. I AM THE MOB on Thu, 10th Jan 2019 8:33 am 

    Davy

    Waymo CEO: Autonomous cars won’t ever be able to drive in all conditions

    https://www.cnet.com/news/alphabet-google-waymo-ceo-john-krafcik-autonomous-cars-wont-ever-be-able-to-drive-in-all-conditions/

    How many fucking times do I have to share this link Davy? Maybe the problem is you are too stupid and stubborn..

  38. I AM THE MOB on Thu, 10th Jan 2019 8:34 am 

    Feeling poorer? That’s because “real” wages fell last year

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/feeling-poorer-thats-because-real-wages-fell-last-year/

  39. I AM THE MOB on Thu, 10th Jan 2019 8:35 am 

    All the people saying the Republican Party isn’t pure evil are exactly like the folks in the 30s that said the Nazis “just had different opinions”..

  40. Davy on Thu, 10th Jan 2019 8:47 am 

    “Waymo CEO John Krafcik (right) speaks at the WSJ D.Live tech conference in Laguna Beach, California.”

    “It’ll be decades before autonomous cars are widespread on the roads — and even then, they won’t be able to drive themselves in certain conditions, the chief executive of Waymo said Tuesday.”

    “Decades before widespread” and “won’t drive in certain conditions” is not what you said:
    “Driverless cars cant drive in the rain or snow..The censors can’t see the road and objects around them..This is what the google driver less car CEO of Waymo said recently..”

    BTW, Waymo is not the only authority on the subject.

  41. I AM THE MOB on Thu, 10th Jan 2019 9:20 am 

    Davy

    He literally said they won’t be able to drive in certain conditions..And Waymo so far is the top leader in the industry..

    Give it up you stupid hick..What the fuck would a stupid redneck like you know about technology anyways?

    And we wont be alive in decades you fucking half wit..

  42. I AM THE MOB on Thu, 10th Jan 2019 9:22 am 

    Self-Driving Cars Will Always Be Limited. Even the Industry Leader Admits it.

    https://medium.com/radical-urbanist/self-driving-cars-will-always-be-limited-even-the-industry-leader-admits-it-c5fe5aa01699

    The self driving car is just an oxymoron..like a slow collapse..

  43. Davy on Thu, 10th Jan 2019 9:44 am 

    MOB backtracking because I caught him talking out his ass. See MOB, properly documented references will keep you from looking like a high schooler.

  44. Davy on Thu, 10th Jan 2019 9:55 am 

    Oops, sorry MOB. Next time I should try reading your references before spouting off like a widdle grade schooler.

  45. Juanp on Thu, 10th Jan 2019 10:25 am 

    Oops, that was me not Davy

  46. Antius on Thu, 10th Jan 2019 10:49 am 

    “Self-Driving Cars Will Always Be Limited. Even the Industry Leader Admits it.”

    If this does indeed turn out to be true, then the car faces a limited future. Autonomous vehicles are of little value if they cannot demonstrate high reliability, over a range of weather conditions. Given that these vehicles are not usable today, it would be foolish to assume that they will be ubiquitous tomorrow, simply because there is an implied demand for them. If they do turn out to be workable, then I do maintain that it would be a game changer. But right now, they are corporate toys.

    I am inclined to agree with Makati. Lower complexity solutions would appear to be the most promising way to go from where we are now. Pedestrianisation is the low tech and affordable option that is time proven. Also, push bikes and velomobiles are cheap solutions, that require no external energy beyond human muscle power. Maybe small air powered motor bikes would work too.

    I continue to be impressed by the potential for the bus. They offer all of the speed and mobility of a car at a fraction of the total energy cost. A bus can be powered a reasonable distance between stops using a wide range of low energy density power sources. This includes non-compressed biogas; low pressure compressed air, batteries, flywheels, etc. Many of these options are low cost but have insufficient energy density to be useful in powering a car.

  47. Cloggie on Thu, 10th Jan 2019 12:12 pm 

    Do we need autonomous driving to combat our energy problems?

    Perhaps not, here is a serious alternative:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/01/10/carver-goes-into-production/

  48. I AM THE MOB on Thu, 10th Jan 2019 2:16 pm 

    Better get ready..the fun is about to start..once the oil starts to run out..it’s game on..the left vs right
    .and the right is just a small minority of church people..lol

    I can’t wait to get fucked up and go rioting rich people..

  49. Cloggie on Thu, 10th Jan 2019 2:51 pm 

    “.and the right is just a small minority of church people..lol”

    I would swear that DJT is prez.

    But hey mobster, don’t let facts stand in the way between you and your sinister phantasies.

  50. I AM THE MOB on Thu, 10th Jan 2019 3:28 pm 

    Clogg

    He is president because of the electrical college and Russian influence..and bis base are ignorant senior citizens..who share fake news..

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