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2019 US Oil Output to Average 12MM Barrels Per Day


U.S. crude oil production will average 12.1 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in 2019 and 12.9 MMbpd in 2020, with most of the growth coming from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico.

That’s according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short-term energy outlook, which estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 MMbpd in 2018.

The EIA’s latest outlook forecasts that U.S. dry natural gas production will average 90.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) this year and 92.2 Bcf/d in 2020, with increases in the Appalachia and Permian regions “driv[ing] the forecast growth”. U.S. dry natural gas production averaged 83.3 Bcf/d in 2018, the EIA highlighted.

U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net imports are estimated to have fallen from an average of 3.8 MMbpd in 2017 to an average of 2.4 MMbpd in 2018, according to the EIA’s January outlook. The organization forecasts that net imports will continue to fall to an average of 1.1 MMbpd in 2019 and to less than 0.1 MMbpd in 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the EIA forecasts the United States will be a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products, by about 0.9 MMbpd.

In the outlook, the EIA states that global liquid fuels end-of-year inventories grew by an estimated 0.4 million bpd in 2018. The organization expects they will grow by 0.2 MMbpd in 2019 and by 0.4 MMbpd in 2020.

The EIA forecasts West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average $54 per barrel in 2019 and $61 per barrel in 2020, according to the latest short-term energy outlook. It expects Brent prices will average $61 per barrel in 2019 and $65 per barrel in 2020.

Last week, analysts at Fitch Solutions Macro Research (FSMR) forecasted that the price of WTI will average $69 per barrel this year and $76 per barrel in 2020. FSMR analysts see the average price of Brent rising to $75 per barrel in 2019 and $82 per barrel in 2020.

The EIA is the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. It collects, analyzes and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment, according to the EIA’s website.

The Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 established EIA as the primary federal government authority on energy statistics and analysis, building upon systems and organizations first established in 1974.


6 Comments on "2019 US Oil Output to Average 12MM Barrels Per Day"

  1. twocats on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 7:20 am 

    I love these square circles. The EIA can’t keep producing amazing estimates of crude oil production increases from the Permian AND expect oil prices to rise… unless the fed starts easing again.

  2. Sunspot on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 1:55 pm 

    In 2017 the US consumed an average of 19.96 million barrels of oil a day per the EIA.

    This article states that in 2020 production will average 12.9 Million Bpd (very impressive) which will make us a net exporter by .9 million Bpd. But presumably our consumption will be over 20 million Bpd by 2020.

    Am I missing something???

  3. Anonymouse on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 3:17 pm

  4. Anonymouse on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 3:24 pm 

    Juan, you are dirty and a pervert. I would know because I know the three sock rules.

  5. Anonymouse on Thu, 17th Jan 2019 3:54 pm 

    Wrong thread Delusionalturd ,your little ‘dirty Juan food’ fight is going on over there. I guess your fat, HFCS saturated fingers are not particularity nimble when it comes to entering info on your discount I-junk. Or maybe you just need glasses. Or to be somewhere else entirely, like a mental institution.

    Mak, got those links handy? Davyturd is having another one of his ‘episodes.’

  6. rockman on Fri, 18th Jan 2019 3:34 pm 

    Sunspot – Something important to be aware of as you wade thru the numbers. Even if you are others may not be. When the EIA et al says the US “consumes” X million bbls of oil per day it DOES NOT mean our citizens consume that oil. That number includes the oil our refineries use to produce product that are exported and consumed by other countries. Last time I checked it represented 5+ million bbls of oil per day.

    IOW our economy does not require all those imported bbls to function, right? Well, yes and no. Our refinery industry does need all that imported oil. The refinery industry that employs 100’s of thousands of employees very good paying jobs. And those many $billions of exported products help reduce the country’s trade balance.

    So even, taking into account our refinery exports its not a clear-cut picture trying to characterize our oil imports vs actual public consumption. For instance, US consumes compete with foreign consumers for those refinery products. Also a critical dynamic with gasoline and diesel: US refineries produce more diesel then we consume just as foreign refineries produce more gasoline then the rest of the world requires. Thus, a very important rebalancing of the supply/consumption relationship.

    All those important details (and others) are lost in the simplistic conversations about imports, domestic production and consumption.

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