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Page added on January 30, 2013

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2012 Liquid Fuel Supply

2012 Liquid Fuel Supply thumbnail

We now have December data for global liquid fuel production, which allows us to see the whole year. What has been striking about 2012 is that oil production has been remarkably flat, with no significant rise across the year (there was a small 0.25mbd/yr trend overall, but that was not statistically significant).

This is in contrast to 2009-2012 when production has generally increased, except for the interruption of the Arab Spring, particularly the loss of Libyan production in early 2011.  Instead, 2012 looks more like 2005-2007 when production was pretty much flat, occasioning a huge spike in global oil prices.

If this new 2012 production plateau continues, I would expect prices to rise again.  They have otherwise been on a gentle slide since the situation in Libya stabilized in mid 2011:

Early Warning

7 Comments on "2012 Liquid Fuel Supply"

  1. LT on Wed, 30th Jan 2013 8:11 pm 

    This data once more confirmed oil did peak in 2005 at 85 million barrels +/- 5%.

    We have been riding on the plateau for 8 years now since 2005. This year is the 9th year on plateau. How wide is the plateau? 5, 10, 15 more years?

  2. Mike on Wed, 30th Jan 2013 10:20 pm 

    Less than 5 years.

  3. rollin on Thu, 31st Jan 2013 1:01 am 

    Total liquids up 17% in 10 years, with petroleum staying fairly flat. Would be interesting to see the net energy graphs for those two. Wonder when the peak oil gurus will put that one out, probably the most telling.

    The US consumer can easily drop their usage by 50% by cutting out unneeded trips and insulating/sealing their homes a little better. There is lots of slack that nobody talks about, probably part of the reason oil did not skyrocket even with increasing demand from developing countries. The slack in the rope will eventually run out though. Meanwhile the fossil fuel barons depend on the consumer’s lack of economic sense.

  4. GregT on Thu, 31st Jan 2013 3:56 am 

    Reducing consumption by half will only postpone the inevitable by a few years.

    The smart move would be to utilize the remaining resources to build out the infrastructure needed for a sustainable future, not continuing down the same economic path to ruin.

  5. Arthur on Thu, 31st Jan 2013 3:35 pm 

    Mike could be right:

  6. rollin on Sun, 3rd Feb 2013 12:18 am 

    The move to confuse: agencies started tracking total liquid fuels versus petroleum a few years ago. It helps to cover the plateau. An indicator for peak oil.

    As real petroleum declines, conversions from NGL’s, natural gas and coal will start to be counted as “oil”. That will be an indicator of descent.

  7. Ahmad on Mon, 26th Oct 2015 4:30 am 

    Its bizarre to me that peploe think this way, its all backwards: have sex, make a baby, live together, but marriage? Buzz word. The world is so weird now. >_<

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