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U.S. Oil Reserves and Peak Oil

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U.S. Oil Reserves and Peak Oil

Abstract. We use calculus methods to estimate the quantity of U.S. oil reserves. We consider a model that consists of an exponential function with four unknown constants. We fit real oil production data to determine the unknown constants. With the constants determined we use the function to find the year in which the U.S. oil production reached its peak. We also estimate the amount of petroleum produced until the end of 2006, and the undiscovered oil reserves to be produced in the future.

Figures and Tables from this paper.

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15 Comments on "U.S. Oil Reserves and Peak Oil"

  1. Shortend on Sat, 5th Oct 2019 2:24 pm 

    We’ll be alright….the charts say so…

  2. Outcast_Searcher on Sat, 5th Oct 2019 3:31 pm 

    Shortened: We’re all doomed next week. After all, the doomtards have been telling us for decades now.

    In reality, it’s hard to predict the future, but the ability of mankind to adapt to changes in the short run if a well established “thing”.

    The long run, where finite resources matter, of course, is a different thing.

  3. Outcast_Searcher on Sat, 5th Oct 2019 3:39 pm 

    And of course, such curve fitting exercises are meaningless, as various fallacies re the past predicting the future point out.

    Ad hoc fallacy. Post hoc fallacy, etc.

    If they did work, then things like stock market chart reading would work after expenses, and it clearly doesn’t (thus the dominance of passive fund outperformance after expenses, over time). Or the ETP oil theory clowns, etc. would have predictions having a passing semblance of reality — but no soap.

  4. Dredd on Sat, 5th Oct 2019 4:17 pm 

    Lazy scientists (the minority) use the calculus gods to lie to themselves (“calculus gives us more”) when the data to the contrary is vast (In Search Of Ocean Heat – 8).

  5. supremacist muzzies jerk on Sat, 5th Oct 2019 5:43 pm 

    The love you take is equal to the love you make
    If you love Putin or xie then go for it
    Muzzies demand constant love so it’s theoretically impossible to have equal love. Most people just resolve to love muzzies unconditionally.
    Why muzzies bother w oil. Camels and flying carpets are carbon neutral . Ann Coulter said

  6. makati1 on Sat, 5th Oct 2019 5:55 pm 

    US oily stuff is subject to profitability, which is non-existent in most US oily fields today. Profitability is also reliant on the end consumer being able to buy the oily stuff at a profitable price. Not to mention that those oily “reserves” are subpar quality oily stuff.

    Anyone can take charts and make them say what you want Statistics are lies using numbers…like the US GDP, unemployment rate, inflation, etc. All lies.

    That cliff is in sight, and fast approaching, where the US/West drops to 3rd world levels or below. Printing pieces of paper or entering numbers in a bank’s account and calling it ‘money’ is not going to last much longer. the Great Leveling in already happening, but it will soon be too blatant to ignore. Are YOU prepared? Buckle up! The ride is going to get very rough ahead!

  7. Anonymous on Sat, 5th Oct 2019 8:03 pm 

    It’s funny to see these old peak oil stories get rerun. This one, from ~2012, says US will peak at ~6.8 MM bopd in the early 2020s.

    Now, it’s 2019 and we’re doing north of 12 MM bopd.

  8. Duncan Idaho on Sat, 5th Oct 2019 8:09 pm 

    Now, it’s 2019 and we’re doing north of 12 MM bopd.
    Actually, world peak is in Nov/Dec of 2018.
    Not going to surpass that in 2019.
    We shall see if 2020 can deliver.
    But it is currently in the rear view mirror.

  9. makati1 on Sat, 5th Oct 2019 10:03 pm 

    Duncan, what is the ‘NET’ energy of those 12 MM bbls/day? Equal to 6 million 50 years ago? Probably, but you will never see any articles breaking out that fact.

  10. Theedrich on Sun, 6th Oct 2019 2:39 am 

    Between 1916 and 1976 (peak) = 60 years.  Assuming the above bell curve retains its shape and ignoring the rest of the world, the U.S. should be at the 1916 level again in ~2036, 17 years from now.  But no problem.  “Science” and the socialistas will save us.  The next iteration of Joe Stalin will reinstate the Workers’ Paradise here in America.  The academics, media talking heads, and low lifes from the world’s outhouses can hardly wait.

  11. Cloggie on Sun, 6th Oct 2019 3:37 am 

    “The next iteration of Joe Stalin will reinstate the Workers’ Paradise here in America. The academics, media talking heads, and low lifes from the world’s outhouses can hardly wait.”

    That’s true but it remains to be seen if they succeed. Probably only in Greater Baltimore. The entire political system is heading towards CW2 and a breakup, the best thing btw that could happen to white America.

    I started that post more than a year ago. Last week DJT used the words “civil war-like fracture” for the first time, triggering all the deplorables with guns. If it can happen in super-lethargic Donbass, it can happen in trigger-happy USA.

    Crucial will be the behavior of the troops. The (overwhelmingly white) veterans support him:

    “Strong support for Trump among veterans in new national poll”

    The active troops, half of them non-whites, is a different matter:

    “Support for Trump is fading among active-duty troops, new poll shows”

    Trump cannot afford to break up the country while he is president. He would be immediately arrested. The waiting is for an American equivalent of Vukovar-Yugoslavia, Faluja-Iraq, Sloviansk-Donbass. Rest assured it will happen. It probably won’t succeed without foreign intervention, just like “1776” was a mess, an uprising going nowhere. In the end it succeeded anyway, because every insurgent was carrying a Dutch gun, smuggled into the country via St. Eustatius and French troops winning the final battle.

    Won’t be different in CW2. A right-wing PBM Europe can’t wait to finally get rid of a former colony-playing-overlord and will weaponize the insurgency wherever it can, via Alaska (Russia) and Mexico, that will be promised that 1820 borders are going to be restored. “1776” all over again, only at a 100 times larger scale and 100 times more destructive.

    The best chances would arise if the US army would be embroiled somewhere outside the US, like in the South China Sea or the Gulf.

    “If the cat is outside, the mice dance on the dinner table”

  12. Anonymous on Sun, 6th Oct 2019 5:54 am 

    1. The article is also from a magazine of “undergraduate research”. Fine, for the kid involved. But not exactly high end science for research consumers.

    2. In comments, there’s a question about net energy. But what’s funny is the same people who want to speculate on net energy, hate the BOE convention valuing gas and oil based on energy. They don’t realize the inconsistency of their views.

  13. Dredd on Sun, 6th Oct 2019 7:22 am 

    Ready for a Blowout (The Harm Oil-Qaeda Has Done – 2)?

  14. Test on Sun, 6th Oct 2019 8:00 am 


  15. Robert Inget on Sun, 6th Oct 2019 6:37 pm 

    In response to msg 227666 by Nothingtoc view thread
    Re: More Than 50% Of The Mighty Permian’s 2018 Oil Production Has Vaporized
    BELOW is an excerpt from article:

    “Even though the companies drilling and completing wells in the Permian added 2,493 new wells so far in 2019, overall production from these two years only increased by a net 221K bopd (221,000 bopd). Thus, of the 1,308K bopd of the new output brought on in 2019, 1,087K bopd was already lost due to the massive decline rate of 2018’s production.

    Now, there may be some upward revisions for Permian oil production in 2019 because a small percentage of the wells have not yet been reported. But, this will not change the overall situation all that much.

    Just think about this for a minute. Of the 5,132 wells drilled, completed and brought online in 2018, 50.5% of that production has VAPORIZED in just seven months. This is CAPITAL DESTRUCTION at its finest.”

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