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Peak Oil – The Hedonic Adjustment

Geology

Arthur Berman: “Peak Oil – The Hedonic Adjustment”

Episode 54
January 18, 2023

(Conversation recorded on January 2nd, 2022)

Show Summary

On this episode, petroleum geologist Arthur Berman returns to unpack the development and drawbacks of ‘peak oil’. Art explains how our institutions have redefined what is considered oil, which has created an illusion of constantly growing oil production. The reality is that – circa 2023 – fully 40% of what is called oil is comprised of things that are ‘not oil’. What does this imply for global peak oil? Is peak oil, an observation which has been around for decades and repeatedly proven ‘wrong’, even relevant today? Is a specific ‘peak’ date even helpful or should we be focusing on the logical implications of a declining primary resource for global economies? And then, what should we do?

About Arthur Berman

Arthur E. Berman is a petroleum geologist with 36 years of oil and gas industry experience. He is an expert on U.S. shale plays and is currently consulting for several E&P companies and capital groups in the energy sector.

To watch this video episode on Youtube https://youtu.be/CDBJdQnjE2o

Show Notes and Links to learn more:

PDF Powerpoint used in the show

PDF Transcript

Art’s Complementary article

00:40 – Art Berman website, The Oil Drum + TGS Podcast Part 1 and Part 2

04:20 What is peak oil

05:38 Shale plays

07:46 Oil as the master resource

09:43M King Hubbert, Howard Scott

10:53M King Hubbert 1956 speech

11:54 Kjell Aleklett – Resilience

12:29 With no new drilling, all the current producing wells are declining at 6% per year *More recently updated to 8%*

13:19 Nate’s PhD writing

15:52 Low of 5% of energy going back to the energy production sector in 1999, now up to 10%+ (Figure 1)

16:00Oil Drum Article of Modeling Oil Depletion Using EIA data

18:42 – Slide #1

18:45Peak oil likely to have been November 2018

19:14$-37/per barrel oil prices

19:53 – Slide #1

21:32USA surpassing 2018 peaks

21:40 – Slide #2

22:26 – Slide #3

23:08 How is natural gas different from oil/petroleum

23:39Refinery gain 

23:51 – Slide #3

24:10 40% of what the IEA/EIA calls oil is not actually oil

25:20Large component of natural gas plant liquids is ethane, which is used to make baggies

26:25Oil is extremely energy dense, natural gas is 33% less energy dense than oil

27:36 Hedonic Adjustment

27:54NGL is 30% of what we consider oil production in the US

28:26 – Slide #8

28:35Natural gas liquefaction during extraction

29:09LNG process

31:57Different components of natural gas

32:24Natural Gas Plant Liquids

34:28 The hardest part of find new oil is the deepness – and correlating increasing heat/pressure

35:30 Types of crude oil and their qualities

36:36 – Slide #9

39:44What is NGPL used for

40:40 – Slide #13

40:50 Half the world oil consumption has been used since 1990

42:45The US oil supply is extremely light

42:55The US has reduced oil imports over last decades

43:07The US exports 3 million barrels, and imports 6-7 million barrels of heavy oil

43:50Diesel can have a greater energy content than Crude oil

44:08– Slide #11

46:00Ethanol is 40% of the heat content of that of Crude oil

48:52 – Slide #10

50:20 – Slide #14

51:20 Ethanol

52:38Nate’s piece in Nature Science journal (2005)

53:30Ethanol mixed fuels don’t take your car as far

54:56 – Slide #8

1:02:20Peak demand

1:03:31 Shell launched an investigation of M King Hubbert to prove him wrong

1:03:52Malthus, Paul Ehrlich (TGS Episode)

1:06:47Almost all of the fossil energy alternatives make electricity, which is limited in function

Next

William E. Rees: “The Fundamental Issue – Overshoot”



41 Comments on "Peak Oil – The Hedonic Adjustment"

  1. NO second change on Sat, 21st Jan 2023 11:45 am 

    The globalization and maritime international containers shipping started at around 1985. By 2008 almost all the natural resources of earth where depleted and the US fed was starting the MBS purchase program to save the economy.

    2:55 for the graphic in the video below.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVetSoef4m4

    www_federalreserve_gov/regreform/reform-mbs.htm

    GOD and I have no desire to save planet earth. The so called elites of planet earth have a IQ so low that they are basically mentally retarded. Earth will be destroyed for ever. You won’t get a second change.

  2. theluckycountry on Sat, 21st Jan 2023 3:57 pm 

    Yes the waters have certainly been muddied since Hubbard made his predictions. I guess the question is how much of the new ‘accounting’ is reality and how much is a smoke screen to cover the fact the world is full steam ahead into a new age of horse and cart.

    I remember clearly growing up in a suburb of 15 odd service stations, and they really did give service. Now there is one. There is no mystery here, the sale of Petrol simply became unprofitable for most to compete, and the ones that survived did so by getting rid of their young entry level workers to pump the fuel. a couple of decades later they were morphing into snack shops full of chocolate bars, drinks and pies to keep ahead of the thin margins on oil.

    The only peak that interests me is the one that occurred in 2008. That was the point where the society I live in showed big cracks in their systems. Massive retracements in stock-market prices (private pension holdings) The bursting of a decades long housing bubble and a subsequent 10 year hiatus in price rises. Big increases in personal debt and the increase in crime and random violence that is no doubt a consequence of more and more people being left behind in the game of upward social mobility.

    All the actions a thinking person should have taken to ensure their future prosperity, and that’s basically what the oil-age gave to the man and woman in the street, prosperity, all of these actions proved their worth over that peak and have so since.
    1/ Escaping the cities
    2/ owning your own home free and clear
    3/ stocking up on whatever you think might be useful before you die
    4/ and most importantly for some, transferring your wealth to a form that isn’t subject to the vagaries of a corrupt market system.

    I know many will not see the value in these actions, after all, how can you appreciate life in a crime-free little town in the countryside if you have never lived in one? How can you appreciate the value of a 2005 Japanese lawn mower when all you have is a cheap chinese unit? And how can you appreciate owning an investment that has gone up steadily in value over 20 years with few pull backs when you spend your days fretting whether a market collapse is imminent and your digital pension will lose half its value, or your bank accounts decimated by a Bail-in?

    When the last of those service stations begin rationing fuel for the man in the street and the food in the supermarket is going up through the roof it will too late for the average person to jump ship. And we know that will happen because OIL has given us everything we have, regardless of what some shabbily dressed executives at Google say about how the world will prosper in the future.

    Believe Google, believe “Anything is Possible” and you will be living up a cul-de-sac in a collapsing city-scape trying to remember what chicken used to taste like. Just like many today wonder what Prime Steak must taste like.

  3. Flush earth out on Sat, 21st Jan 2023 4:37 pm 

    The IQ of the whole earth population is so low that earth is basically an big mental asylum. The only thing worth preserving on earth is the mathematical equations governing earth reality. The rest can be flushed out, including the whole population of earth. Nobody want to work with a mental asylum like earth.

  4. Dredd on Sun, 22nd Jan 2023 5:23 am 

    Long live the town crier (The Citizen Journalist In America – 4).

  5. ee dd on Tue, 24th Jan 2023 2:39 pm 

    Iceberg measuring 1,550 sqaure kilometres breaks off in Antarctica

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQ0S4ylRSgQ

    Kill all the Jews on earth or you all die.

  6. rrrr tt on Tue, 24th Jan 2023 5:59 pm 

    Widespread storm damage in Pasadena

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMQXlVsWDZY

    Kill all the jews living on earth or we all die.

  7. iie eejd on Tue, 24th Jan 2023 6:09 pm 

    Next time the US fuck with me, I get a big EF5 tornados to pass through the wind mills farm of texas.

    Kill all the jews of the world, or we all die.

  8. ee o oe on Tue, 24th Jan 2023 6:32 pm 

    A Tornado Outbreak is possible as a 3/5 on the severe weather scale has been introduced by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. Strong tornadoes are possible across the warned area, as we cover it live throughout this potentially dangerous day.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOBFENwtOMg

    Kill all the jews of the world or we all die.

    5 is the highest possible level for a tornado.

  9. RRTT on Tue, 24th Jan 2023 6:35 pm 

    THE US will pay for this. I said no tanks delivery to Ukraine.

    Still want to fuck with me.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIWkBhm8z-g

    A Tornado Outbreak is possible as a 3/5 on the severe weather scale has been introduced by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. Strong tornadoes are possible across the warned area, as we cover it live throughout this potentially dangerous day.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOBFENwtOMg

    Kill all the jews of the world or we all die.

    5 is the highest possible level for a tornado.

  10. Do as I said, or you all die on Wed, 25th Jan 2023 5:21 am 

    If you want to people of the earth to live here what you have to do:

    1-kill all the jews living on earth.

    2-No tanks delivery to Ukraine does not matter which nation is delivering tanksv: US, Canada, Germaney, Western Europe

    RECORD LOWS AND DEADLY SNOWS SWEEP JAPAN; ICELAND’S COLDEST DECEMBER FOR 50 YEARS; + COLD ARCTIC SKIES PRODUCE RARE ‘POLAR STRATOSPHERIC CLOUDS’

    electroverse_co/deadly-snows-japan-icelands-coldest-dec-rare-polar-stratospheric-clouds/

  11. ee vv on Wed, 25th Jan 2023 5:41 am 

    I said two things

    No tanks at all, 14 tanks is not zero. So prepare to die.

    Germany to Supply Ukraine With 14 Leopard Battle 2 Tanks

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5GXcs33gHQ

    2- I want all the Jews living on earth kill and torture to death.

  12. ee ee e on Wed, 25th Jan 2023 6:33 am 

    4.2 magnitude earthquake strikes off Malibu coast, USGS says

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sthP9Lsuk0E

    Prepare to die. You dare to disobey me by
    sending tank to Ukraine. Something will happen, I keep making these sound out of my mouth.

  13. ee e e on Wed, 25th Jan 2023 6:58 am 

    kill all the jews living on earth now, or we all die. Start thinking at how you will torture them to death,.

  14. dd ee e on Wed, 25th Jan 2023 7:20 am 

    Vague de froid en Afghanistan : au moins 70 morts • FRANCE 24

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlOTzQ2tfs4

    Kill all the Jews of earth by torture or we all die

  15. ee e eee on Wed, 25th Jan 2023 11:39 am 

    What about another Tornados for the US, but this time in Florida. You did not take me seriously.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IyQukVkcWI

    abc11_com/nc-weather-today-severe-storms-raleigh-forecast/12733738/

    Kill all the jews living on earth or we all die.

  16. eeee eee ee on Wed, 25th Jan 2023 11:52 am 

    Made a mistake above. Warning were for NC, now they are for Florida.

    Live radar: Strong to severe storms moving across Florida ahead of next cold front

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAXd1f-RCEM

    A powerful line of storms is plowing across the Panhandle of Florida Wednesday. By this afternoon, mainly after 4 p.m., this line will work into the northwest Florida counties and spread south closer to Orlando by 10 p.m.

    Kill all the jews living on earth or we all die. You can kill the Jews in Israel with a trade embargo. The whole world need to participate to be effective.

  17. ee ee tgv on Wed, 25th Jan 2023 12:10 pm 

    This is yesterday Houston tornado press release.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSU44G5N2sA

    Kill all the jews living on earth or we all die. You can kill the Jews in Israel with a trade embargo. The whole world need to participate to be effective.

  18. oo le fe on Wed, 25th Jan 2023 12:26 pm 

    BREAKING | High Rise Fire on Lake Park Ave.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-xa2_buSX4

    Kill all the jews living on earth or we all die. You can kill the Jews in Israel with a trade embargo. The whole world need to participate to be effective.

  19. ee ee ee on Wed, 25th Jan 2023 6:29 pm 

    S. Korea wakes up to blistering cold with temperatures plummeting down to -25°C

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlerQj_bxNo

    I told you to not have the WEF meeting in Davos. I told people to not go there. South Korea prime ministers and other nations prime minister went anyways against my advice.

    Now you will pay for disobey me. The time when you can do what you want on earth without consequences is over.

  20. ee ee ee on Wed, 25th Jan 2023 6:34 pm 

    Kill all the jews living on earth or we all die. You can kill the Jews in Israel with a trade embargo. The whole world need to participate to be effective.

    Israel reassures Jordan over Temple Mount; U.S. to up Iran sanction enforcement

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4kf-Lbvh68

    Western Europe is starting to upset me. Punishment is coming for Western Europe. You are supposed to isolate them from international trade not help them.

  21. kk o o oo on Wed, 25th Jan 2023 6:37 pm 

    Israeli President Isaac Herzog travels to Belgium ahead of his key note address to the European Parliament on the eve of the International Holocaust Remembrance Day.

    Any nations that send representative to the International Holocaust Remembrance Day will punished and their prime minister will receive deadly bloody facial skin cancer..

  22. ee tt ee on Wed, 25th Jan 2023 6:45 pm 

    I advice Israel to cancer the International Holocaust Remembrance Day.

  23. rr uu u u on Wed, 25th Jan 2023 7:05 pm 

    More than 30 million people under winter weather alerts

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_izS73mNgY

    You are better to start to do what I say. I rule the whole earth, not you.

    It is time for the Jews to stop shaming the white race using the holocaust. All the people that have participated to the holocaust are dead. Stop using this vile manipulation trick on the White Nordic race. Dare to challenge me again.

  24. eee on Wed, 25th Jan 2023 7:15 pm 

    I am watching you Israel, US and Western Europe. You are about to get hard all of you. All of you.

  25. rr t yyy on Wed, 25th Jan 2023 10:07 pm 

    All the Jews will be exterminated make no mistake about that. Start to think how to isolate economically Israel using international trade blockage.

    The time when Israel could manipulate the White Nordic race using vile and old shaming manipulation trick will be stopped by GOD AND I”

  26. eee sss fff on Wed, 25th Jan 2023 10:14 pm 

    Europe will pay dearly for that. I told you to isolate Israel economically, I told you not to work with them. Just wait Europe what is coming your way.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-54bl2IGqkc

  27. rrr yy uu on Wed, 25th Jan 2023 10:36 pm 

    I can feel the anger of GOD coming and moving into me. Just wait. United nations, another piece of shit NWO organization that will be destroyed. The whole earth is about to get hard.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jY8951_x90Y

  28. ooo eee epp on Wed, 25th Jan 2023 10:45 pm 

    Ukraine struggles to power through winter with energy infrastructure down

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tk_nfKAtHhQ

    This is nothing compare to what is coming to the whole Europe. You dare to go against my will. We isolate Israel economically, we don’t work with them.

    Europe will pay dearly for that. I told you to isolate Israel economically, I told you not to work with them. Just wait Europe what is coming your way.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-54bl2IGqkc

  29. ee ee ee on Thu, 26th Jan 2023 12:41 am 

    GOD and I are talking about what part of the electrical grid of Europe we will shut down first. Wind mills of Denmark or Poland damage by ice and snow, shut down of France nuclear power station because a old transformer blow up, Germany natural gaz pipeline blowing up,

    Europe will pay dearly for that. I told you to isolate Israel economically, I told you not to work with them. Just wait Europe what is coming your way.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-54bl2IGqkc

  30. eee ee ee on Thu, 26th Jan 2023 7:55 am 

    Europe will be punshied for that make no mistake that.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upHiM51N0qk

    My instructions are really clear, kill all the jews of the world of die. Apparently the world wants to die. I will give to the world what they want. I am also working on a severe punishment for Europe. Your electrical grid will go down and never come up again.

    Europe will pay dearly for that. I told you to isolate Israel economically with a trade embargo. I told you not to work with them. Just wait Europe what is coming your way.

    Europe the country populated with gay that is not needed anymore.

  31. ee ee ee on Thu, 26th Jan 2023 8:04 am 

    ALGERIA SEES RARE SNOWFALL; 157 AFGHANS NOW CONFIRMED TO HAVE FROZEN-TO-DEATH IN “COLDEST WINTER ON RECORD”; BENCHMARKS BUSTED IN U.S.; + *ALL-TIME* RECORDS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS JAPAN

    electroverse_co

    You refuse to kill all the Jews of the planet. In that case I will everyone living on earth.

  32. dd e e e on Thu, 26th Jan 2023 8:15 am 

    A better world start with the death of all the Jews. You don’t want a better world, I will give you what you wants death.

  33. o o p p ee on Thu, 26th Jan 2023 8:39 am 

    Let’s say there is 20 millions Jews worldwide and global world wide population of 7 billions.

    20E6 /7E9*100 =0.28%

    I offer you to kill 0.28% of the worldwide population in exchange for 7 billions people to live and you refuse to do that. You refuse to kill 0.28% of the world wide population in exchange for the chance of a better future. You really deserver to die. You are just an under develop animal specie.

  34. e dkdj jjee on Thu, 26th Jan 2023 8:57 am 

    If the world is not willing to kill 0.28% of the world wide population to live and maybe even have a better future, this means that the whole planet wants to die. I meant that the whole planet have no survival instinct and want to die.

    I will give you what you want: death.

  35. eek ke kee on Thu, 26th Jan 2023 11:23 am 

    NATO Secretary General with the President of Israel Isaac Herzog, 26 JAN 2023

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQNMoZUws5w

    Europe will pay for that. Europe should prepare to have its electrical grid completely shut down and to never come back.

    I have been very clear about this.

    Let’s say there is 20 millions Jews worldwide and global world wide population of 7 billions.

    20E6 /7E9*100 =0.28%

    I offer you to kill 0.28% of the worldwide population in exchange for 7 billions people to live and you refuse to do that. You refuse to kill 0.28% of the world wide population in exchange for the chance of a better future. You really deserver to die. You are just an under develop animal specie.

    You refuse to kill all the Jews of the planet. In that case I will kill everyone living on earth.

  36. ee rr e e on Thu, 26th Jan 2023 11:53 am 

    while France shores up its nuclear energy capacity and Belgium turns to its forests for warmth.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mAiVxSh89UA

    Very soon Europe will have its power grid shut down forever.

    Let’s say there is 20 millions Jews worldwide and global world wide population of 7 billions.

    20E6 /7E9*100 =0.28%

    I offer you to kill 0.28% of the worldwide population in exchange for 7 billions people to live and you refuse to do that. You refuse to kill 0.28% of the world wide population in exchange for the chance of a better future. You really deserver to die. You are just an under develop animal specie.

    You refuse to kill all the Jews of the planet. In that case I will kill everyone living on earth.

  37. uu ee rr on Thu, 26th Jan 2023 12:25 pm 

    Europe will have its electrical grid shutdown permanently.

    Let’s say there is 20 millions Jews worldwide and global world wide population of 7 billions.

    20E6 /7E9*100 =0.28%

    I offer you to kill 0.28% of the worldwide population in exchange for 7 billions people to live and you refuse to do that. You refuse to kill 0.28% of the world wide population in exchange for the chance of a better future. You really deserver to die. You are just an under develop animal specie.

    You refuse to kill all the Jews of the planet. In that case I will kill everyone living on earth.

    I told you not to go the WEF meeting. the prime minister of South Korea thought it was a good idea to go. South Korea as a whole will be punished for the actions of its prime minister.

    S. Korea to boost energy vouchers, increase gas discounts for the vulnerable this winter

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qr3UUalTkVU

  38. ee ee ddd on Thu, 26th Jan 2023 12:56 pm 

    Commemorating the 50th Anniversary of the Paris Peace Accords

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKdkdb13HGM

    These so called intellectuals elites are just animal playing GOD. Typical greed, vain, narcissiques people trying to play GOD and manage the world according to their vision.

    One Time I told GOD that I was willing to serve him if possible, what should I do. He told me do what you want with earth. SO I am killing everyone on earth.

    I had the humility to place myself under GOD authority and demand instructions. The elites does not have this humility and will be tought a lesson.

    There is nothing you can do or say to make me change my mind. Everyone on earth will die.

  39. ee ee rr on Thu, 26th Jan 2023 7:48 pm 

    Vous perdez votre temps avec ce genre de reforme. J’ai pris une decision et j’ai décidé executer tous les habitants de la planète terre. C’est fini et ça inclut le Québec et le Canada. C’est fini. Dieu m’a dit que je peux faire ce que je veux. J’ai décidé de executer tous les habitants de la planète terre. Ii n’y aura de retour en arrière.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4smMp0-jjY

  40. ee ttt tyy on Thu, 26th Jan 2023 8:25 pm 

    J’ ai dis de ne par faire ca. Voir video ci-dessous. Le reseau électrique va être coupé completement pour l’Europe de l’Ouest et de l’Est. Ca ne fait pas beaucoup de différences parce que j’ai décidé de tuer tout le monde qui vit sur la planète. Dieu a dit tu peux les torturer les habitants de la planète terre avant que je la détruise au completement. Si ca t’amause tu peux les torturer a mort. Je m’amuse donc a vous torture entre-temps.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUtHD2iNQJI

  41. ee ee ee on Fri, 27th Jan 2023 1:47 am 

    Japan tightens Russia sanctions

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QbeFVgvqlY

    You are supposed to sanctions the Jews. Does not matter anymore, everyone on earth will be killed.

    The jewel of the creation: mathematical equations, table of data’s, algorithms is under a tight lock and nobody will ever have access to it. Keep doing your piece of shit CGI. The jewel of the creation is not the CGI but the mathematical equations. This is under a tight lock and will never be released to anyone. This the last creation, after that the universe go dark for ever.

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