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Peak Oil Postponed… Again: US EIA International Energy Outlook

Peak Oil Postponed… Again: US EIA International Energy Outlook thumbnail

Guest “divestment my @$$!” by David Middleton

Jude Clemente rocks!

Sep 29, 2019
The U.S. Department Of Energy Says More Oil, More Natural Gas

Jude Clemente Contributor
I cover oil, gas, power, LNG markets, linking to human development.

Numerous energy headlines from this past week alone caught my attention. They perfectly illustrate the massive scale of investment plans for oil and gas projects around the world. Here are just a few:

*”Japan to invest $10 billion in global LNG infrastructure projects.”
*”Tellurian Signs $7.5 Billion LNG Pact With India’s Petronet.”
*”LNG investments hit record of $50 billion in 2019.”
*”Brazil’s Huge $25 Billion Oil Auction Clear Very Important Hurdle.”

As fate would have it, on Tuesday, a day after my birthday (I turned 25 again), the U.S. Department of Energy’s EIA released its International Energy Outlook 2019. It’s a glorious read, and one that I deem mandatory for all Americans, and even those globally interested in energy. We should all take advantage of the fact that we have such government information freely available to us open-source online.

You should know that the vast majority of countries have no such access to their own governments. Again, this is the official modeling from the U.S. Department of Energy and its National Energy Modeling System. This is not from ExxonMobil, the Sierra Club, or the American Wind Energy Association trying to sell you something or make you think a certain way. This is the outlook of the U.S. Department of Energy.

What’s past is prologue: more oil, more natural gas. No kidding. These two essential fuels supply nearly 65% of the energy used in the U.S. and global economies. Global annual oil demand has been surging ~1.4 million b/d since 2000 alone, with gas usage up 8 Bcf/d per year.


The simple reason why we see such huge investments in oil and gas as seen in the above headlines is because we know that the world will need even more of them. In particular, the still developing world is looking at the oil and gas consuming West to see how affordable and reliable energy can grow economies and improve human development.


The main reason for the following graphic is that oil is the world’s most vital fuel and has no significant substitute whatsoever. Oil is the basis of globalization, utilized in practically everything that we do, and the most internationally traded commodity in the world. Oil’s value is so immense that too high of a price can cause a global economic recession.


Next comes the world’s go-to fuel: natural gas.

Just last year alone, global gas demand jumped over 5% to a staggering 137 trillion cubic feet.

That’s a Marcellus’ shale worth of production devoured every three weeks.



Mr. Clemente’s graphs…

Figure 1. “U.S. oil demand will remain extremely high, with global demand booming. DATA SOURCE: EIA’S IEO 2019; JTC”
Figure 2. “The U.S. and the world are both in midst of a “dash to gas” that will surge natural gas demand. DATA SOURCE: EIA’S IEO 2019; JTC”


Looks like Peak Oil won’t be getting here before 2050…

Figure 3. Peak Oil Postponed… Again. (US Energy Information Administration)

•In the Reference case, world production of crude oil and lease condensate increases from about 80 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2018 to 107 million b/d in 2050. Total liquids production increases from 100 million b/d in 2018 to 127 million b/d in 2050.

•Liquid fuels consumption increases 45% in non-OECD countries and falls 4% in OECD countries.

•In the High Oil Price case, world liquid fuels consumption in 2050 is 4 million b/d higher than in the Reference case. Primarily, emerging, non-OECD nations drive faster economic growth, which contributes to higher energy demand. In the High Oil Price case, proportionally higher amounts of crude oil are supplied by countries that are not part of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

•In the Low Oil Price case, world liquids consumption in 2050 is 1 million b/d higher than in the Reference case. Slower non-OECD economic growth assumptions lead to lower energy demand, but the lower prices mean that consumers use more liquid fuels. Low-cost producers located in OPEC countries supply more crude oil and condensate to the global marketplace.

US Energy Information Administration

Too fracking funny for words…

Figure 4. Bwhahaha!!! (US Energy Information Administration)

•End-use fuels include those fuels consumed in the industrial, transportation, and buildings sectors and exclude fuels used for electric power generation.

•Liquid fuels, because of energy density, cost, and chemical properties, continue to be the predominant transportation fuel and an important industrial feedstock.

•Electricity use in the residential and commercial building sectors increases rapidly because of growing income, a growing population, and increased access to electricity in non-OECD regions.

•Electricity use in the industrial sector and transportation sector also grows, respectively, as a result of increasing product demand and increasing use of electric vehicles.

•Coal continues to be an important end-use fuel in industrial processes, including the production of cement and steel.

US Energy Information Administration

Here’s the really funny bit…

Figure 5. No energy transitions here. (US Energy Information Administration)

•Use of all primary energy sources grows throughout the Reference case. Although renewable energy is the world’s fastest growing form of energy, fossil fuels to continue to meet much of the world’s energy demand.

•Driven by electricity demand growth and economic and policy drivers, worldwide renewable energy consumption increases by 3% per year between 2018 and 2050. Nuclear consumption increases by 1% per year.

•As a share of primary energy consumption, petroleum and other liquids declines from 32% in 2018 to 27% in 2050. On an absolute basis, liquids consumption increases in the industrial, commercial, and transportation sectors and declines in the residential and electric power sectors.

•Natural gas is the world’s fastest growing fossil fuel, increasing by 1.1% per year, compared with liquids’ 0.6% per year growth and coal’s 0.4% per year growth.

•Coal use is projected to decline until the 2030s as regions replace coal with natural gas and renewables in electricity generation as a result of both cost and policy drivers. In the 2040s, coal use increases as a result of increased industrial usage and rising use in electric power generation in non-OECD Asia excluding China.

US Energy Information Administration

While EIA forecasts an explosive growth in renewable energy, it doesn’t replace fossil fuels. It just get piled on top of the energy mix… Just like fossil fuels and nuclear were piled on top of biomass.

Figure 6. There has never been an energy transition.

More good news…

Figure 7. No Green New Deal Cultural Revolution here. (US Energy Information Administration)
Figure 8. Looks like Ford F-Series pickup trucks will still be outselling all EV’s in 2050. (US Energy Information Administration)

While they forecast that renewable energy sources will account for nearly half of global electricity generation by 2050, total demand more than doubles. The growth in renewable energy barely keeps up with total demand growth.

Figure 9. Coal is still alive and well in 2050. (US Energy Information Administration)


Figure 10. ROTFLMFAO!!!!!. (US Energy Information Administration)

Did I mention that Peak Oil has been postponed… Again?

Figure 11. Yi-hah!!!!! (US Energy Information Administration)

Even better news…

Figure 12. The US might hit the Hubbert peak by 2040… Just about when Canada kicks it up a notch. (US Energy Information Administration)

•Non-OPEC crude oil and lease condensate production grows 23% between 2018 and 2050, reaching 59 million b/d in 2050. These increases are driven by growth in Russia (22%), the United States (11%), Canada (126%), and Brazil (59%).

•United States crude oil and lease condensate production increases from 11 million b/d in 2018 to approximately 14 million b/d from 2025 to 2040, driven by hydraulic fracturing of tight resources in the U.S. Southwest. Subsequent production falls to 12.2 million b/d by 2050, as development moves into less productive areas and well productivity declines. Nevertheless, 2050 production increases 11% from 2018 levels.

•Russia’s 2.3 million b/d increase in production by 2050 comes mainly from non-tight resources, but the country also sees accelerated growth in tight oil production after 2030.

•Canada’s 5.4 million b/d increase in production by 2050 is a result of oil sands development, particularly toward the end of the projection period, as easily accessible global resources are increasingly depleted and global oil prices gradually increase.

•Brazil’s 1.5 million b/d increase in production by 2050 results from continued development of offshore pre-salt oil resources.

US Energy Information Administration

More offshore drilling and oil sands development! Too fracking cool.

The US will continue to kick @$$ when it comes to natural gas…

Figure 13. No Hubbert Peaks in sight.. (US Energy Information Administration)

And now for the pièce de résistance

Figure 14. Did I already use the Dr. Evil laugh? (US Energy Information Administration)

Could the EIA Projections Be Wrong?

Sure they could. EIA totally missed the shale revolution.

Figure 15. EIA totally missed the shale revolution.

whatts up with that

11 Comments on "Peak Oil Postponed… Again: US EIA International Energy Outlook"

  1. Antius on Wed, 2nd Oct 2019 7:37 pm 

    Projections of global demand, based on extrapolation of past trends, provide no reassurance that supply will be sufficient at a price that people are able to afford.

    This article is worth nothing. Check out Peak Oil Barrel for up to date information on global oil production. US shale oil production is levelling off and declining rig counts point to decline. This was about the only thing that allowed global liquid volumes to increase these past ten years.

    As for LNG – it is possible to run vehicles on it. But not very easy given that it is cryogenic and boils at -160C.

  2. makati1 on Wed, 2nd Oct 2019 7:52 pm 

    “…a price that people are able to afford.” is the key sentence, Antius. Odds are very good that the price will drastically limit consumption and the price of oil will plummet to levels that do not make it profitable. At that point, oil will be nationalized and used only to provide for necessary uses, not personal waste. Ditto NG, even though NG will never be as common as gasoline/diesel. The FF industry is in its last days along with most other things we take for granted.

    Oily investors never look at the whole picture, just barrels and prices, not the future economy or financial situation of its customers.

  3. Sissyfuss on Wed, 2nd Oct 2019 8:09 pm 

    Mak, oily investors also never look at the total cost of their products, including the horrific costs of the waste gases. But that’s Capitalism, late stage or otherwise.

  4. Davy (master dumbestass) on Thu, 3rd Oct 2019 12:57 am 

    I was told many depressing things as a child.

    Watching World Vision infomercials educating the west to the want and misery suffered by millions of children in the third world, I wasn’t alone in asking adults “why”? When I enjoyed all the comforts of food security, electricity and running water, why were these other children living in poverty? I know that I was not the only bewildered child to receive the shallow response that I did from family and teachers when I was told that this “simply is the way it is”. At best, we privileged few in the 1st world could hope that $1/day would alleviate their pain, but really there was no great solution. Later in life, as my closest friends found themselves enmeshed in university political science and economic programs, the innocent curiosity that recognized injustice for what it was not only died under the weight of materialist theories of human nature which their parents paid good money to feed them, but upon leaving school, those same friends actually became witting accomplices in that very system which their youthful hearts recognized as wrong so many years earlier. Since humanity was intrinsically selfish and our economic system so immutable, the best we could hope for was success in life and enjoy being on the receiving end of destiny. Again, I know that I’m not alone in this experience, as tens of millions of citizens took to the streets all around the world on September 27 to march for the earth, repulsed by corrupt consumerism and celebrating the advent of a Green New Deal. This activation of “people power” driven by such institutions as the Extinction Rebellion, Fridays for the Future and the young Greta Thunberg could never have occurred had not a deep sense of injustice and malaise not already been festering in our collective hearts. That sense of injustice and malaise connects us to our deepest humanity and is a purity which unites each of us in a field of compassion with the whole of which we are but parts, and should be celebrated and protected at all costs. In spite of that purity something much darker showed its ugly face on September 27 which used that inherent goodness to its dark advantage. It is that dark something that I would like to discuss. You Know Something Isn’t Right When…
    The first clue as to the ugly problem can be found in the simple fact that leading central bankers had already issued a call for the same new green banking system which Greta and the countless masses also demanded long before Extinction Rebellion, Fridays for the Future or There is No Time were ever created. While officially announced on September 22nd at the opening of the UN Climate Summit in NY, a Central Banker’s Climate Compact was unveiled under the leadership of Bank of England Governor Mark Carney that had already been in the works for over 18 months representing over 130 of the world’s largest and corrupt banks calling for a radical decarbonisation of the world economy by 2/3 according to commitments laid out in the 2015 Paris Climate accord. Bank of England head and Chair of the Bank of International Settlement’s Financial Stability Board (2011-2018) Mark Carney announced at this venue that “climate disclosures must become comprehensive, climate risk management must be transformed and sustainable investing must go mainstream”. Carney then took on a more threatening tone by saying “the firms that anticipate these developments will be rewarded handsomely. Those that don’t will cease to exist”. Now Mark Carney has been hailed by the environmental lobby as the leading “eco-warrior” of central bankers and those doing the hailing seem to rarely take notice of the blatant fact that the person who sits atop the technocratic power structure that has given rise to the world’s greatest economic and environmental injustices for decades is also the person designing how this dysfunctional world is supposed to be restructure? So how do Carney and his fellow hive of central bankers propose the world transform? The New Green System Becomes…
    For starters, Carney believes that a new global reserve currency must replace the U.S. Dollar. What should this post-dollar system be based upon? Well, as of August 23, during a central bankers’ summit in Jackson Hole Missouri, Carney stated that it should be modelled on Facebook’s cryptocurrency the Libra, which is scheduled to start issuance by early next year. Unlike the Libra however, Carney’s cryptocurrency will be entirely controlled by private banking institutions and totally removed from sovereign nation states, which are just too influenced by short term political interests rather than an “enlightened technocratic elite” who know how to truly think long term.

    Knowing that China’s Belt and Road Initiative is increasingly becoming the foundation for a viable new economic order, and knowing that the financial oligarchy’s monopoly over world finance will come undone if that were so, Carney also warned that a crypto-digital currency is the only way to stop the Renminbi from becoming the US dollar’s replacement.

    Carney called his digital solution to be a “synthetic hegemonic currency… through a network of central bank digital currencies” which would base their value upon new standards not existent in the 1971-2019 globalized model.

    Redefining value
    In a 2015 Lloyds of London Speech preceding the Paris COP21 Climate summit, Carney stated “the desirability of restricting climate change to two degrees above pre-industrial levels leads to the notion of a carbon “budget”- an assessment of the amount of emissions the world can “afford”. This statement essentially defines the parameters which Greta and her minions of green followers are being induced to call for as a new “post-consumerist” world of monetary valuation while actually merely destroying what little remains of a middle class and empowering an already entrenched oligarchy. Like all good lies, this one hinges upon a truth. Carney and the green new dealers recognize that pure “market demand” has totally failed as a standard of assessing “value” of money or any other primary asset in our economy. $4.5 trillion of currency speculation grows like a cancer every day without any positive payback to the real economy while $700 trillion of derivatives hover like a Damocles sword over the world waiting to fall at any moment that “market confidence” disappears as it did in 2007. But after that truth is acknowledged, what does the “carbon budget” entail which professes to somehow lower the world temperature to within two degrees of pre-industrial temperatures which we must assume to be a solution to an under-defined problem? According to the Green New Deal proposed by Carney and his allies, in order to bring world carbon dioxide production down to net zero emissions by 2050 as demanded by COP21, several things must happen. Green bonds must be expanded en masse, in the similar fashion that victory bonds were created in WW2 to pay for the growth of industry needed to battle Hitler. In this 21st century version of course, it is the Bank of International Settlements which financed Nazism which today wishes to define how the new victory bonds will behave. Rather than finance industrial and scientific growth as occurred in the 1940s, these new bonds promise to shrink it. The associated constraints upon humanity’s ability to support its 7 billion lives is not lost to some cold hearted technocrats and their aristocratic managers at the top. In reducing industrial growth through the transition from a carbon-based society towards a “green” energy- fueled society of windmills and solar panels, carbon footprints must be diminished. The degree to which humanity diminishes its carbon footprints is the degree to which Carney and his masters promise to reward economic players with monetary profit. Again this is the very opposite process when compared to the 1938-1971 system of industrial growth which tied dollar values to the growth of the REAL economy (agriculture, industry, science and technology) which tied money to the betterment of human life. Carbon Taxes and Cap and Trade mechanisms must become hegemonic which then creates measurable values for the reduction of humanity’s carbon footprint. Embarrassingly Bad Science
    By acting on a purely emotional state of fear and panic as Greta demands we do, Carney-ite technocrats hope that no one bothers to shine light upon the blatant scientific fallacies underlying the entire “green new deal” which the Bank of England is proposing the world adopt.

    We must ignore the fact that the “99% of scientists who all agree that global warming is caused by human activity” is really only based upon a survey of 79 anonymous scientists (77 of whom believed in the claim).

    We must believe that it has been proven that CO2 is a cause of climate variation, even though all long term measurements of climate and temperature indicate that CO2 follows rather than precedes temperature changes.

    We must also believe that this reduction in humanity’s contribution of CO2 to the entire greenhouse effect (which accounts for less than 0.1% of the total) would have any impact whatsoever upon a 2 degree reduction of the global mean temperature from pre-industrial levels (which we have no ability to assess anyway). We must ultimately assume that perpetual economic growth is a delusion which only fools believe in and that population growth is a problem which must be corrected by a technocratic elite who have the “stomachs to handle the bloodletting”. Breaking out of our Carrying Capacit The fact is that there has always been a carrying capacity to humanity and no one should try to deny that reality.

    What green technocrats hate to admit is that humanity’s carrying capacity is very different from that found among all other species of life in the biosphere. While other species find their population potential limited by genetic traits, and environmental constraints, humanity alone can transcend those material limits by leaping into the creative realm of discovery both in the sciences as well as in the arts. The fruits of humanity’s discoveries as outlined in Abraham Lincoln’s brilliant speech On Discoveries and Inventions (1860) is entirely connected to our unbounded capacity for scientific and technological progress.

    The reality of the coherence between mankind’s creative powers and the creative power shaping the universe as a whole has been a powerful concept identified millennia ago by Plato, St. Augustine, Nicholas of Cusa and his followers Johannes Kepler, Gottfried Leibniz, Benjamin Franklin and Friedrich Schiller. Its expression (though not always fully understood by those acting upon it) has been the object of hate and fear by an entrenched oligarchy which has launched innumerable wars, assassinations and regime changes to prevent its awakening.

    The New Silk Road… Not the Green New Deal
    Today, Russia and China have recognized this necessity of unbounded human progress and are fully committed to integrating their economies into an “alternative” financial system centered on the Belt and Road Initiative. While 135 other nations have increasingly joined in this new system, the oligarchy which signs Carney’s paycheques is well aware that a USA under the control of a president who says “the future belongs to patriots, not globalists” creates an intolerable risk that may re-orient America towards this new system and that cannot be tolerated.

    Most importantly, when one truly inspects the Belt and Road Initiative’s accomplishments both in Asia as well as Africa and the Middle East, it becomes apparent that the only system which truly has the means to not only replace our bankrupt order while also eliminating war, environmental destruction and squalor is tied directly to what China has built and which has already pulled over 800 million souls out of poverty. NASA even recently confirmed that earth’s biomass grew by 10% entirely because of India and China’s commitment to industrial progress- overturning the foolish notion that economic growth and environmental health must always be at odds.

    This is the system which existed only as a dream unknown to most in the west as I watched World Vision programs encouraging me to beg my mother to give $1/day to a kid in Guatemala whose life had been destroyed by that same system which today threatens to destroy what little is left of the third world through a Green New Deal.

  5. Davy on Thu, 3rd Oct 2019 1:03 am 

    Oops, sorry y’all stupid dumbasses, i forgot the link agin. zero-iq hedge

  6. anon on Thu, 3rd Oct 2019 2:48 am 

    it’s sad how the narrative has been artificially polarized to poison all arguments – the truth about resource depletion and collapse has been wrapped up in the same package with climate bullshit and totalitarian control schemes sold to the public as salvation from the climate boogeyman, including a neverending low-level war on everyone, destruction of nations and private property, as part of the ‘sacrifice’, on one side.. on the other side has been set up an equally fantastical faith in endless growth fueled by unicorn farts, which yes it rightly decries the climate mythology as the bullshit it is, but simultaneously packages that up with advocacy of total control of everything by global megacorps, untrammelled pollution of everything, fake chemical and gmo foods, and endless war, corporations-as-the-only-citizens owning everything and everyone else’s property rights only empty words…. and in both cases the same globalist elites controlling everything, just slightly different tools being used. Theyre trying both strategies at once and letting the argument hash itself out, not caring really which wins because they control the narrative and theyve coopted both sides of the argument.
    cant people open their damn eyes and realize that the reality is indeed, resource depletion collapse, environmental destruction (but not the climate nonsense they sell to the plebs), andmassive overshoot… but that the solution is NEVER more centralized power/wealth/control? the solution is to go local and shed complexity. large political and business structures? useless overhead we can no longer afford. they have to go. Who will wield all that power and control the elites lust after? with the superstructure gone most of the control evaporates and what remains is at a local level for people to hash out however they do in every place. technology cannot be sustained at this level much longer, it will necessarily devolve. the leftists want to deliberately downgrade and depopulate the masses so the elites can continue their party as a new nobility.the ‘right’ of course wants exactly the same thing but they call the nobility ‘shareholder value’ instead. the future looks medieval with a lot of scrap and salvage from the current age, and _local_. there’s no room for these power and control narratives. theres no room for social justice nonsense. Real communities with real and distinct cultures will be the scene. some real cultures have remained not entirely destroyed and some of those elites have a hard-on for destroying those cultures of the west. whatever their reasons, both the ‘left’ and the ‘right’ flavors have been trying to cut any remaining connection to roots in the past. they want people detached and controllable.
    hang on to your roots! yes this means actually caring about ones own culture and language and preferring it over something foriegn! oh my god that is so not politically correct anymore that theyre trying to make the very thought illegal!! but their power and control game, left and right alike, is coming to an end- the resources simply wont be avalable to support that level of complexity and technology much longer – the present is the most crucial time to determine if we crash back to the stone age or if we manage to hang on to something like the middle ages with some civilization.

  7. Davy on Thu, 3rd Oct 2019 8:17 am 

    Check out the posting times for the fact patterning of JuanP and is mental illness:

    Davy said Oops, sorry y’all stupid dumbasses, i forgot…
    Davy (master dumbestass) said I was told many depressing things as a child. Watc…
    Davy said BTW stupid dumbasses. Im gonna keep trying to cens…
    Davy said Oops, sorry evryone. I meant to say dumbass
    Davy said Trump is making america grate again makato. Thats…
    Davy said “Makato, that the best you can do? No wonder…
    supremacist muzzies jerk said I “reverted” to a muzzie the best of h…
    supremacist muzzies jerk said Hundreds billion of years since (((supremetard)))…
    Davy said Im a idiot. Get used to it. Im gonna keep recking…
    supremacist muzzies jerk said Any1 here a muzzie lover Silly me like asking anyo…
    Big Goat approves message said For someone born with a proverbial silver spoon fi…
    The Church Lady said DAVY is of his father the GRAND MASTER of HELL, an…
    JuanP said “… there’s little doubt that a heckuva…
    Davy said I am Davy I am Skum I am DavySkum Hear me yap….

    Here are the times when JuanP posted notice the fact patterns with his one normal one of course as subterfuge. LMFAO at the lunatic:
    9:54 pm
    JuanP on 9:59 pm
    “… there’s little doubt that a heckuva lot more “greenhouse gases” are going to be released between now and 2050.” “At least that much is true!”
    10:01 pm
    11:37 pm
    11:43 pm
    11:44 pm
    11:46 pm
    11:51 pm
    12:36 am
    12:43 am

  8. Davy on Thu, 3rd Oct 2019 8:18 am 

    missed these
    12:57 am
    1:03 am


  9. Davy on Thu, 3rd Oct 2019 8:54 am 

    Oops, missed this one to

    8:18 am


  10. Davy on Thu, 3rd Oct 2019 9:24 am 

    So the reality is the person who commented the most yesterday and one itty bitty lame low IQ response. The rest was troll bait. What a fuck nut

    This is impressive use of JuanP’s GED education as the Former Juan Pablo aka Juan Paultard and now the supremacist muzzies jerk. What a fine example of South American intellect here on our forum:

    “At least that much is true”

  11. Antius on Thu, 3rd Oct 2019 1:19 pm 

    Oh my…

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