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Page added on June 21, 2014

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Only 53 years’ worth of oil left

BP analysts predict that global reserves of oil and gas have only a few more decades to last. According to the experts, who aired their prognosis at the recent World Petroleum Conference in Moscow, shale oil offers a viable alternative to the country, predicting that by 2035 Russia will be producing 800,000 barrels daily.

Global reserves of oil and gas will last only a few decades, according to a report given by BP analysts at the 21st World Petroleum Conference in Moscow on June 16. However, the experts identified Russia as one of four nations with excellent prospects for developing production of shale oil. Russian gas exports to Europe Russian gas exports to Europe Oil remains the main type of fuel in use around the world, but it has been losing ground to other forms of energy for 14 years now. Last year, petroleum accounted for less than 33 percent of energy usage. Foreign analysts calculate that global supplies of the “black gold” will suffice for 53 years, assuming the present rate of production continues, while just under 55 years of natural gas remain. Last year, 12.9 percent of the world’s oil was extracted in Russia. By this indicator, our country is only two-tenths of a percentile behind the global production leader, Saudi Arabia. However, once the share of proven reserves is taken into account, the gap in resources is considerably greater. 5.5 percent of the world’s most important energy resources are concentrated in the depths of Russia, and that means a faster rate of consumption of those reserves. Siberia to receive $1 trillion to develop oil and gas fields As before, Russia will continue to cultivate Siberia. According to an assessment by Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, more than a trillion dollars will be allocated to exploitation and pipeline construction in Eastern Siberia over the next 20 years. Oil and petroleum products will flow in an increasingly eastern direction, with the share of exports to Asia increasing from the current level of 12 percent to 23 percent by 2035. Demand for oil on the European market is on the decline, while China and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region are demanding more and more. However, Europe will remain the primary consumer of Russian oil and gas for the foreseeable future. The task that now stands before oil and gas companies is to implement new technologies. Modern methods can increase the oil recovery coefficient and make it cost effective to exploit difficult-to-extract energy deposits. The Russian government is now deliberating a so-called “tax maneuver” with respect to the oil industry. Shale revolution in Russia? According to BP Executive Director Robert Dudley, Russia is one of four countries (along with Algeria, China, and Argentina) with bright prospects for shale production. BP’s report states that by 2035, South American shale oil production will reach 700,000 barrels per day, while Russia will see 800,000 barrels daily. However, International Energy Agency experts are certain that the “Shale Revolution” in the U.S. cannot be repeated in other countries, and that shale oil will not have a serious impact on the market in the near future. Largest oil field in 20 years discovered in Russia Largest oil field in 20 years discovered in Russia The sharp increase in energy production from shale oil in the U.S. forced Saudi Arabia and Venezuela to turn towards other export markets, particularly in Asia. The U.S. Energy Information Administration earlier stated that the size of Russian shale oil reserves exceeds that of American deposits. The largest deposit of oil shale in Russia is the Bazhenov Suite. Shale oil reserves there are estimated at 1.24 trillion barrels, and experts at The Economist Intelligence Unit believe that the field’s daily production could reach 1-2 million barrels per day by the decade’s end. The Petroleum Conference is the largest event in the oil and gas industry. The first forum was held in London in 1933. Moscow last hosted the congress in 1971. This year saw the participation of representatives from Arab countries, China, India, and Africa, as well as the heads of multinational companies with headquarters in Western Europe and the U.S.

Russia Beyond the Headlines

37 Comments on "Only 53 years’ worth of oil left"

  1. Beery on Sat, 21st Jun 2014 8:52 pm 

    “Largest oil field in 20 years discovered”

    Okay, so that that’s the largest oil field since 1994. We weren’t exactly finding big oil fields in the 1990s – in fact the discoveries of the 1990s were tiny compared with those of the 1970s, and those weren’t all that big compared with those of the 1960s. And in order to just stay at our current rate of consumption, we’ll need to be finding the equivalent of the biggest oilfield ever discovered every four years, so let’s not get too excited.

  2. Northwest Resident on Sat, 21st Jun 2014 9:38 pm 

    It sounds to me like a lot of oil industry folks getting together at The World Petroleum Conference in Moscow to engage in group fantasization. The fantasy being, of course, that shale oil is an adequate replacement for the standard crude that the entire world economy was built on. Another fantasy would be the premise that there is 53 years worth of oil left. Actually, there’s an infinite number of years’ worth of oil left, but good luck getting it out of the ground. I’m sure there was a lot of hand shaking and big talk going on at the conference, but these conference attendees must realize the ground is caving in right under their feet. But it made for a great PR event — always good for generating a little more propaganda.

  3. rollin on Sat, 21st Jun 2014 10:32 pm 

    That is one really long paragraph.

  4. Makati1 on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 12:12 am 

    The collapse of the financial system is going to end the Age of Petroleum, not the lack of oil.

  5. Arthur on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 1:03 am 

    It could be that war will precede a financial collapse. Pax Americana is in a state of dissolution. According to the world bank
    the chinese economy could overtake the american economy as early as 2014, not 2020. Russia is defying the West in the Ukraine. BRICS seek to eliminate the dollar trade. In the ME the battle for a unified sunni wordt aka caliphate is underway. European nationalists want closer ties with Russia. Birds of a feather flock together: multipolar world.

  6. Dick Funderburg on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 9:06 am 

    But will the EARTH last that long????

  7. Lloyd on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 9:26 am 

    seems like this may just be another ploy to drive up the cost of oil and gas in this can you trust anyone representing oil companies to be honest.are these the same goons that push global warming,oh excuse me it’s now called climate change.

  8. Nony on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 9:41 am 

    break the paras please. My eyes!!

  9. brian on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 9:47 am 

    any fool can see eventually billions will die and society will go back to middle ages plowing with carthorses etc

  10. john contway on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 9:50 am 

    this is a bunch of bull I was in north Dakota when they found a pool bigger than Arabia’s but they capped and closed the field down hoping for ten dollars a barrel. the oil co. are nothing more than greedy pigs and they look for excuses to jack up the prices. why is it that they always manage to have refinery fire but no one gets killed they shut one down for repairs and they do this for 6 months or so until they have created a shortage, so this is all a bunch of crap created by fat caviar eating pigs who think this is the cash cow to screw us. what next find a way to jack up the price of batteries on fuel efficient cars? I’m sure they’ll find a way to get into that business so they can screw around the average wage earner. I lived in Arabia and other oil producing countries and the arab’s used to laugh at us over oil shortages. what I find remarkable is that we have a back stabbing president who talks out of both sides of his neck with his comments that there would be no speculating on his watch I guess he’s hiding his checks from these thieves until he leaves office then all of a sudden he will have struck it rich on his undisclosed investments , so who is fooling who? lying thieving B—ards.

  11. Nick on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 9:50 am 

    And EPA wants to stop coal?

  12. Nick on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 9:51 am 

    EPA wants to stop Coal?

  13. Johnny on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 10:12 am 

    Don’t worry about Oil it isn’t going anywere.The biggest Oil find in several decades has been located down under an they have’nt touched it.But folks these folks that tell you we are running out of Oil in Lying.You can’t run out of something there is no end to.

  14. Mark on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 10:28 am 

    Total B.S….Crude oil is the result of decomposed life forms that died off millions of years ago. It is everywhere under the surface layers of our planet, and only needs to be located. The assumption that we only have 50 years of crude left on our planet is ludicrous.

  15. Fred on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 11:20 am 

    Is there anyone who seriously believes that the multinational oil/energy companies will just fade away like the pony express? This is a multi-trillion dollar industry that will do anything to survive. Natural gas can be converted to liquid fuels (CH4 to CH3OH to gasoline); even CO2 can be converted into CH3OH (Olah process) and made into liquid fuels. These companies will be selling hydrocarbons from any source to your great grandchildren.

  16. Rod on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 11:25 am 

    I remember the demise of the oil industry being predicted during the 1950s. Obviously, such predictions were incorrect. Is this “deja vu all over again?”

  17. wayne on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 11:30 am 

    This is a bunch of crap, and before you start with the negative comments. There is more oil than we can possibly use. Oil is everywhere… look at fracking. Under the oceans, ice covered continents, beneath jungles. Fifty three years is a short time of a span to use up all the Worlds reserves. Just like Social Security is going to run out of cash, this will never happen also. I am sick of the crap that I read on the news internet, just like those Kartrashain’s whores…

  18. stupid liberals on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 11:30 am 

    So, if you’re 20, there’s plenty of oil left. Awesome.

  19. Mr dave on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 11:56 am 

    I think they are just looking for a excuse for the prices they are charging now and more as the years ahead so when it DOES run out they can live well of the profits !!!

  20. vince on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 12:09 pm 

    What should alarm the Democrat Party is all of the young adults coming of age during this great recession. They’ve gone to public school where teachers beat them over the head with global warming and gay marriage, they’ve seen their parents loose their jobs only to take positions at Walmart or Home Depot just to get by, They[ve gone to college and have had professor beat them over the head with global warming, gay marriage and how Bush lied only to see how Obama has lied about everything. Now they are out in the market place trying to find a job and repay student loans. Global warming and gay marriage just doesn’t have the cache it did 6 years ago.

  21. Tim Garrity on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 12:51 pm 

    1. There is not an infinite amount of oil.
    2. Oil is a non-renewable resource.
    3. The world economy is built on or supported by oil and its uses.

    The US Government needs to be funding research into cold fusion while we still have funds to do so. Oil will run out and currently we have no viable means to replace it in mass.

  22. Northwest Resident on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 1:27 pm 

    vince — From my point of view, the Democratic and Republican parties are two tools used by the same entity(ies) to get their priorities accomplished. If you’re still stuck on Democrats versus Republicans, then you’re probably missing the big picture. But specifically dealing with your point, it is common knowledge with even top Republicans recognizing the undeniable fact that demographics (including young adults) are definitely NOT in favor of the old, white, anti-everybody-but-who-they-like Republican Party. If you’re missing that fundamental reality, then you’re probably missing a lot more along with it.

  23. GregT on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 2:16 pm 


    There certainly is no shortage of denial, in the comments section today.

    Time to wake up to reality people.

  24. Len Hobbs on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 2:38 pm 

    Tim Garrity: Wrong on all three counts.

    The earth is producing crude oil everyday. There is more oil under Texas today than there was in 1950. Carbon (all carbon) is biodegradable and therefore is NOT a carcinogen…AND…there is no better source of energy on the horizon.

    Nuclear is the best energy source ever discovered by man – but the eco-terrorists would scream all the way to power plant if THAT was proposed to be our most used power source.

  25. jim on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 2:45 pm 

    Can we run out now, i’d like to watch the world implode.

  26. J-Gav on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 3:06 pm 

    Hmmm – Wonder what Wayne, John, Johnny, Mark, Lloyd … have been smoking … Should try some MDMA for a change.

  27. jorod on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 3:40 pm 

    Weren’t we supposed to die of starvation 200 years ago? You should try reading Julian Simon instead of this tripe.

  28. Dutchman61 on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 5:11 pm 

    Oil will never dry up although the left dreams of it. We will instead learn better ways to harvest the stuff that is left. Unconventional oil is growing because there is in fact a great deal of it and we have figured out how to get it out. Cost may go up but there are option. The other thing is WHERE does oil come from. There is growing evidence that oil is created deep underground from natural gas. The oil fields are the capture points. The Russians have always thought this. Oil was thought to be fossil because the first fields were next to coal which is fossil. If true,and we figure out the replenishment rate, we have unlimited oil over time.

  29. GregT on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 5:19 pm 

    It would also appear that there are no shortages of ignorance and stupidity as well.

  30. Pops on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 5:37 pm 

    Must have picked up a link from WSJ or some such, lol

  31. john florack on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 6:24 pm 

    So this must mean we need to take alternative energy seriously. About time!

  32. Anubis on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 6:51 pm 

    Let us hope the oil companies do not push nuclear power, in which a solution to the toxic radioactive waste has never been found.

  33. Tedman on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 7:52 pm 

    While I definitely don’t agree with the anti peak oil people…I really hate when when people freak out that someone disagrees with them….You can disagree with someone without calling them stupid…it just shows your infantile temper….but I guess that is what I should expect from loud mouth amerikanssssss……”I am right and this is my playground!!!!”

  34. jose gaarrido on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 8:14 pm 

    so i could careless if we run out of oil nuclear power is the way of the future let’ the oil baron eat cake

  35. Makati1 on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 8:53 pm 

    GregT, it seems we have picked up some very stupid/blind people or government bots. Walmart must have a big sale on the Ministry of Propaganda ‘cool aid’ in 50lb containers again. Or the dumbing down by the US school system is finally reaching bottom.

  36. alokin on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 10:07 pm 

    Strange the commenters. Usually some very well informed people comment here. But this?? My impression: paid shills.

  37. Jerry L on Mon, 23rd Jun 2014 1:13 am 

    I wonder what the last gallon of fossil fuel will be used for and by whom. Perhaps one last joy ride in an old Ford Mustang? The last gallon will probably be bought in an auction for a fabulously high price.

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