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Page added on September 18, 2020

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How much oil left in America? Not much

How much oil left in America? Not much thumbnail

Preface. If you think we have no worries because we can get arctic oil, think again. We can’t because icebergs mow drilling platforms down in the ocean. On land, massive amounts of expensive new drilling rigs, roads, rail lines, platforms, buildings and other infrastructure need to be built, and maintained every year as permafrost soil bucks and heaves like a bronco trying to shake infrastructure off.

In the first two oil shocks in the 1970s, many intelligent people proposed we should buy oil from other nations to keep ours in the ground for when foreign oil declined. But hell no, Texas, Oklahoma, and other oil states said that we need jobs and CEO/shareholder profits more than national security. Over half of all remaining oil is in the Middle East, which China, Russia, and Europe are much closer to than the U.S.

What saved the U.S. and the world, from conventional peak oil and natural gas decline since 2005 is fracking. But fracking began to decline as early as 2020 according the first report below. The second article is about oil discoveries in the U.S. declining.

This just in: John Hess, CEO of Hess Corporation, told his audience that “key U.S. shale fields are starting to plateau” and will not the next Saudi Arabia. U.S. shale oil production has been a major driver in the growth of world oil supplies. Last year the United States accounted for 98% of global growth in oil production. Since 2008 the number is 73%. so a slowdown or decline in U.S. oil production growth would mean trouble for the whole world. With 81 percent of global oil production now in decline, even a plateau in U.S. production would likely result in a worldwide decline (Kobb 2020).

Peak Fracking in the news:

2020 U.S. Shale Oil Production – All That’s Left Is The Permian And That Won’t Last Forever Either.

Alice Friedemann www.energyskeptic.com  author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts: Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity , XX2 report

***

Goehring, L. R., et al. 2019. The unintended consequences of high grading. Goehring & Rozencwajg.

…we believe, new underappreciated forces are now at work in the shales. As we progress through 2020, the retrenchment of drilling activity, combined with the inability for drilling productivity to rise because of “high grading” will produce the potential for a significant disappointment in oil production. If rig counts turn much lower or if productivity continues to disappoint, US shale production growth might even start to turn negative as we reach the end of 2020. Most analysts are still very optimistic about US oil growth in 2020. Estimates range from as low as 1.1 mm b/d to as high as 1.7 mm b/d, but we believe these growth estimates are far too aggressive. Several prominent oil industry veterans are calling for growth as low as 400,000 b/d, which could also turn out to be optimistic. Our Oil Markets section will outline our estimates for US shale growth, as well as global oil supply-and-demand balances.

On a longer-term basis, we believe 2019 results are just the beginning. Of the two major shale oil basins, two are showing signs of exhaustion (the Eagle Ford and Bakken). Even the Permian is starting to show its age. Recent comments from Halliburton and Schlumberger reinforce the idea that the shales may be past their prime–something we have been expecting for several quarters. The underlying issues are geological in nature: the industry is running out of high-quality Tier 1 acreage. While there was hope that drilling and completion technologies could overcome these forces, our data suggests this is unlikely.

Philippe Gauthier. May 3, 2019. US Oil Exploration Drops by 95%. Resilience.org

It is well known that oil discoveries are in continuous decline worldwide in spite of ever-increasing investments. What is less known, however, is that spending on oil exploration is fast dropping in the United States. Exploratory drilling has been decreasing year after year and now stands at only five percent of its 1981 peak. In other words, once the currently producing shale oil wells are gone, there won’t be much to take their place.

According to figures derived from US Energy Information Agency (EIA) data by French oil geologist Jean Laherrère, oil exploration has already peaked twice in the United States. The first time was in the mid-1950s, with just over 16,000 wells drilled in a single year. The second major peak dates back to 1981, with 17,573 exploration wells. This number fell to only 847 in 2017.

Another even more revealing phenomenon is the decrease in NFWs. New field wildcats are exploration wells drilled in areas that have never produced oil, as opposed to wells drilled simply to help better delineate already known oil sectors (shown as red and greenlines in the graph). NFWs also declined by 95%, from 9,151 in 1981 to just 450 in 2017. According to Laherrère, this means that the United States have been almost entirely explored for oil and gas since 1859 and that few sites are worth drilling anymore. “There are only a few unexplored areas left offshore”, he notes.

In comparison, the number of operating wells (used to pump oil from previously known fields) was 646,626 in 1985, 597,281 in 2014, and 560,996 in 2017. However, nearly 400,000 of these wells are very old and produce at a marginal rate – fewer than 15 barrels a day and sometimes as little as one. They are described as marginal wells in the graph above.

It should be noted that the number of operating wells – a figure sometimes used to suggest that the oil industry is still running strong – does not account for this sharp decrease in exploration. Once shale oil production starts to decline – and Laherrère expects this to happen within a couple of years – there will remain few reserves to support US production.

The source material for this post is: Jean Laherrère, Updated US primary energy in quad (April 30, 2019) https://aspofrance.files.wordpress.com/2019/04/updateduspe2019-3.pdf

References

Kobb, K. 2020. Peak Shale Could Spark An Offshore Drilling Boom. oilprice.com

EnergySkeptic


21 Comments on "How much oil left in America? Not much"

  1. bochen787 on Fri, 18th Sep 2020 2:42 pm 

    df41.ch

  2. adamb on Fri, 18th Sep 2020 4:21 pm 

    You know, there were some silly peak oilers out there 10-15 years ago, but Alice appears to take oil ignorance to an entirely new level. She is Trumpian in her ability to ignore facts, science and the practical aspects of why she was wrong when proclaiming those other impossible things (electric semi’s are physically impossible!).

  3. all they can do is huff and puff and go back to loving muzz more on Fri, 18th Sep 2020 5:01 pm 

    they can’t prove (((supertard))) alice wrong

  4. same suspect who believe whitey supertards will be around for a long time on Fri, 18th Sep 2020 5:03 pm 

    who refuses to amputate whitey supertard atheistic scientific supremacist thunderfoot.

    this whitey supertard speaks exclusively high british english and is a muzz lover.

    they refuse to believe whitey supertard is gone after turgid

    turgid kicked up convict 19 death rate 2^N where N takes 17 years to type all digits

    hate all u want but u can’t disprove (((supertard))) alice

  5. Cloggie on Fri, 18th Sep 2020 5:05 pm 

    So, and now Alice is going to inform us that wind energy doesn’t work either:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2018/12/28/prejudices-from-amateurs-against-wind-energy/

    “Prejudices From Amateurs Against Wind Energy“

    In America those kinda opinions bring you awards:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/12/07/mark-p-mills-hack-for-the-fossil-fuel-industry/

    “Mark P. Mills – Hack for the Fossil Fuel Industry“

    America missed the renewable energy boot. No smooth transition to be expected. No sufficient support base. They all will tell you it won’t work. On this board no Anglo will advocate/promote a 100% renewable energy transition. “Wind and solar are an extension of the fossil fuel base”, “it is a niche”, “renewable energy is not dense enough”, “too low eroei”, bla-bla-bla.

  6. turgid is the litmus test on Fri, 18th Sep 2020 5:35 pm 

    them vs us

    them:
    turgid boosted death rate from convict19 to 2^N where N is 17 years to type all digits

    whitey supertards have every chance of survial post convict-19

    us:
    whitey supertards have no chance after turgid

    them: (((supertard))) alice is wrong but they have no data to back up argument

    us: (((supertard))) alice is kryptonite

    them: whitey supertard atheistic scientific supremacist thunderfoot is absolutely rite

    us: amputate now, amputate then, amputate forever. we used to take arms and kill these people in the war of independence. they annoy us

    they brings us royal instutution, models, lockdown, muzz ck

  7. Cloggie on Fri, 18th Sep 2020 5:48 pm 

    Didn’t write the previous post.

    I know full well wind energy is a extension of the fossil-fuel system and is not self-sustaining in any meaningful way. I am also full aware that objects like Wind Turbines are 100% dependent on fossil-fuels throughout their entire life-cycle. Someone is trying to make me look like an idiot with the fake post above.

    Looks like empire dave is paying his Ozzark games again.

    Speaking of fake posts, for anyone that doesnt know already, I regularly use multiple identities myself to make it appear as if my un-informed opinions are held by more than one individual. Posting variations of the same material but under multiple names is a easy way to make me look more important and informed than I actually am. Normal people of course, use one name. This explains why empire dave is making fake posts with my name again.

    I go by
    Abrahymm von Helsing
    Cloggie. When empire dave is not stealing my multiple identities for his own nefarious purposes that is.
    I also from time to time use other random names to high-five my own posts, but only once in a while. Compared to davy at any rate.

    Trump 2024

  8. makati1 on Fri, 18th Sep 2020 5:51 pm 

    “How much oil left in America? Not much”

    I agree. The real, quality petroleum is about gone. All that is left is burnable liquids they are calling oil. The cost of recovery to customer is no longer profitable. So be it.

    Amerika is isolating itself as it commits suicide. That too is a good thing. Maybe the world will have peace, finally?

  9. makati1 on Fri, 18th Sep 2020 5:58 pm 

    Cloggie, you keep ranting about renewables and close your eyes to physics, economics and the real world. NO ‘renewables’ can exist without a lot of FFs. They don’t get from the mines to usable installation using only “renewable” energy. They exist because there was a lot of FFs in the process.

    https://sunweber.blogspot.com/2011/12/machines-making-machines-making.html

    THAT is one of those real world facts you like to ignore. Your techie addiction to unicorn shit can get you killed. LOL

  10. zero juan on Fri, 18th Sep 2020 6:28 pm 

    Selfish fuck face juanPPee hogs the forum again:

    turgid is the litmus test said them vs us them: turgid boosted death rate from co…

    Cloggie said So, and now Alice is going to inform us that wind…

    same suspect who believe whitey supertards will be around for a long time said who refuses to amputate whitey supertard atheistic…

    all they can do is huff and puff and go back to loving muzz more said they can’t prove (((supertard))) alice wrong

    adamb said You know, there were some silly peak oilers out th…

    turgid turgid turgid turgid turgid turgid turgid turgid turgid turgid turgid turgid turgid turgid turgid turgid turgid turgid turgid turgid turgid said instead of amputating whitey supertard atheistic s…

    bochen787 said df41.ch

    bochen787 said opps wrong post meant for subreddit, too many tabs…

    bochen787 said To set the record straight, I did buy the early ac…

    ACID said Life sucks without a car.

    IFuckQuebecInTheAss said StarvingLion said The Nuclear Industry in Scameric…

    IFuckQuebecInTheAss said HI StarvingLion I was looking into diesel pickup t…

    Abraham van Helsing said Havent you been paying attention Mick. I already s…

    ISIS jihadists overrun paradise islands where Bono and Daniel Craig holidayed before torching villas said muzz

    REAL Green said Baaahhh!

  11. Theedrich on Fri, 18th Sep 2020 6:28 pm 

    America is dedicated to anti-evolution. Its masses are attracted to circus oddities:  rabid anti-Whites;  criminals;  queers;  mongoloid idiots;  psychotics;  self-proclaimed “victims” (especially Yids);  subhumans from Africa;  genetic throwbacks;  freaks of every description;  mulattos (the more hideous, the better);  sex trafficking;  brain poisons of all kinds.  And, of course, a life of ease, of Negroid stupidity and free entertainment:  the Marxist ideal of insect-like equality and square circles.  The Jim Jones suicide cult on steroids.

    It is fitting that this idol of the world with its DeepState should be led today by a senile oligarch and moneyed idiot savant kike, Georg Sörös, to its own death.  2020 Nov 3 will initiate its plunge into the trash bin of history.

  12. Davy on Fri, 18th Sep 2020 6:54 pm 

    woof woof!

  13. REAL Green on Fri, 18th Sep 2020 7:35 pm 

    So true widdle. So true.

    Woof! Woof!

  14. zero davy on Fri, 18th Sep 2020 8:07 pm 

    Selfish fuck face delusional davy socks the forum again

    zero davyskum on Fri, 18th Sep 2020 6:28 pm

  15. bochen777 on Fri, 18th Sep 2020 8:56 pm 

    First we lost our hero Kobe in the beginning of this year, later we lost our King of Wakanda, now we have lost the Honorable Mrs Ginsburg, what is going on? What will become of this once great nation?

  16. Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 18th Sep 2020 10:32 pm 

    This just in:

    https://www.rt.com/usa/501110-supreme-court-justice-ginsburg-dies/

    “US Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg dies at 87“

    We can only be devastated. May Yahweh have her soul!

    Her death comes at a convenient moment for Trump, who could expand the conservative-libtard balance frim currently 6-3 to 7-2.

  17. Hezbollah has stores of weapons across Europe including the explosive chemical that blew up Beirut, the US government claimed last night. on Fri, 18th Sep 2020 10:34 pm 

    Euro need to harvest muzz
    Send specialists to China to get educated on harvesting techniques

  18. Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 18th Sep 2020 11:08 pm 

    Britain spiralling down from the highest food standards in the world (those of the EU) into the US abyss:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8749453/US-farming-tasteless-toxic-cruel-monstrous-practices-no-place-here.html#comments

    “US farming is tasteless, toxic and cruel – and its monstrous practices have no place here: Radio 4’s veteran food presenter Sheila Dillon decries ministers’ dangerous plans“

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2020/05/28/the-brussels-effect/

    “The Brussels Effect“

    Last night I had a dream about Nigel Farage. It involved tar and 350 million feathers and a bus. I still don’t know what to make of it.

    Poor English and their Brexit blooper. Only the war declaration of September 1, 1939, entirely engineered by their US “friends”…

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/25/chamberlain-and-the-forrestal-diaries/

    …was an even bigger mistake, which cost them the largest empire in world history.

    The Brexit blooper will “merely” cost them their country, as shaped by the Glorious Revolution after 1688:

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2020/02/16/great-britain-is-a-creation-of-the-netherlands/

    “Great-Britain is a Creation of the Netherlands“

    To top it off, when England will finally have freed itself from “the shackles of the EU”, later this year, it could learn that their beloved US (inhabited by a majority of people of German descent) no longer exists.

    It will be standing by, without Scotland, Ulster and Gibraltar (without London and Wales as well?), while watching how Russia becomes part of Europe and the Europeans will rewrite the history of WW1 and WW2 (the price german diplomats will require from Russia in return for russian membership of the Common European Home), while Australia and New Zealand and Vancouver disappear in the hungry belly of the Red Dragon.

    This all could be realized before 2030.

  19. Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 19th Sep 2020 9:31 am 

    Didn’t write the previous post.

    I know full well Britain is a faithful servant of the American empire and would no more go against the wishes of their master, than they would go against the wishes and desires of the Americans master, Israel. Britain is pro-US, pro-Israel, pro-war, and is as rock-solid a bastion of globalism as you could ask for or hope for.
    So this fake poster stealing my identity @ 11:08, clearly has no idea what he is talking about.

    Looks like empire dave is paying his Ozzark games again.

    Speaking of fake posts, for anyone that doesn’t know already, I regularly use multiple identities myself to make it appear as if my un-informed opinions are held by more than one individual. Posting variations of the same material but under multiple names is a easy way to make me look more important and informed than I actually am. Normal people of course, use one name. This explains why empire dave is making fake posts with my name again.

    I go by
    Abrahymm von Helsing
    Cloggie. When empire dave is not stealing my multiple identities for his own nefarious purposes that is.
    I also from time to time use other random names to high-five my own posts, but only once in a while. Compared to davy at any rate.

    Trump 2024

  20. Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 19th Sep 2020 9:32 am 

    Sorry everyone, I meant,

    Trump 2030

  21. supertard bochen777 and ccp using Hollywood as sophisticated propaganda machine on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 11:38 pm 

    This is his psychological war portfolio he used successfully against muzz in China
    He misled us about this and we are ignorant about harvesting our muz
    He said; sex with white women

    Quite an act of sophistry

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