It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.

The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.

Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.

A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ctv news on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 5:05 am
What is the purpose to have a tree of life kind of man. I don’t remember.
Jaine latulipe on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 5:13 am
No the tree of life never engage in long term relationship. there is no female specifically designed for him. He procreates with all species. He never raises his own children.
I KNEW some wrong on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 5:49 am
SO I opened the door can’t get in that way my body can’t get through the door only your hand so we kicked the bottom and she came out she said there some girls in there call 911
alain laporte on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 5:54 am
Who is generating these. It is not because I am sharing these with you that you will be albe to follow me when I leave earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuGtuuc8J-k
Jena lpaire on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 6:03 am
No way any IA on earth is capable of generating something like this. IA on earth are barely capable of solving a differential equation, it sure cannot come up with these kind of sophisticated movie. It requires some kind of real creativity to come up with something like this. See below. This is created by people that have a really high IQ, unlike the population of earth that is heavily mentally retarded.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuGtuuc8J-k
Tremale elyse on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 6:13 am
It is not because I am writing these comments that you will be able to come with me when I will leave earth.
llolo yelloe on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 8:04 am
I told you that we will kill everyone on earth.
Record February Cold Threatens Northern China; All-Time Snow Totals Sweep Japan; 4 Feet In 3 Days Buries The Alps; + Stable Temperatures In Greenland, Study Finds
I told you that nobody confiscate the weapons of a warrior. I fucking warned about this.
jean demoine on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 8:09 am
I also explain to you that we repopulate earth. We can kill everyone on earth and repopulate if we want to. Procreation used to be something special with a sacred character to it. See sperm worshipping, Every fucking idiot on earth can reproduce.
As I said there were a crusade against women in past. Cut the womb of a pregnant women and you pull the baby out of the womb. You show the dead baby to Satan. He will get it.
MY NEIGHBOR got big testicles on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 8:50 am
SO I opened the door can’t get in that way my body can’t get through the door only your hand so we kicked the bottom and she came out she said there some girls in there call 911
Plastic Bertrans on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 9:49 am
Since I am born I keep hearing about violence against violence. You would look at the stats you would get thing like 20 women were killed in Québec last year. 20 women a year it is basically 0% if you divide by total population. They never stop talking about violence against women.
They were crusade against women and we almost kill of them as a form of rebellion. Same as crusade against the jews.
Really violent past that they are hiding from us.
Jaime preselye on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 10:06 am
Maybe they know that I am back. I was born in 1967 when feminism was started in Québec with le conseil du status de la femme. Maybe they know that I came back to kill them. They know how many I have killed many in the past. So they came up with violence against women.
regit heline on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 10:17 am
Someone wants to know if they other kings are back also. I don’t know.
yelei jaune on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 11:34 am
Yes it is a matrix of solid. It is a waste of time trying to improve it. Better to kill everyone on earth and restart from zero.
This is the kind of discussion I have all the time that I am not sharing with the rest of the world. It is for historical record that I am sharing this
juno tremeble on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 11:42 am
We are going to kill everyone living on earth. It is a matter of time.
Yellen powell on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 11:53 am
If you do enough low level programming you will end up shifting 1 and 0. Earth used a computer system based on a binary mathematical system of 1 and 0. Do you guys understand how primitive it is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xpk67YzOn5w
Earth tech is too primitive to be interesting us. Also, people are too mentally retarded.
Elaine greame on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 12:38 pm
This is fucking funny at 1:50, I think so, Trump is a gamer changer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryFVKhOJSAE
regis labaume on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 2:13 pm
I feel sometime they knew I was coming back to earth. I am born in 1967.
En 1967, le gouvernement fédéral met sur pied la Commission royale d’enquête sur la situation de la femme au Canada, la Commission Bird.
https://csf.gouv.qc.ca/le-conseil/historique-et-presidentes/
It was started by the federal government.
I heard that all my life, violence against women. I was looking at the stats and I could not figure out why it was so important suddenly. I have a feeling they know something about my past I don’t know yet.
Ulyse grahaim on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 2:18 pm
I am pretty sure that, in past, I have tried to exterminate all the Jews. And I tried to kill all the fertile and pregnant women.
Regie trudel on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 2:20 pm
It is guaranteed that if I can I will restart a crusade to kill all Jews. I will also restart a crusade against fertile women and pregnant women.
Make sure that you understand that.
Jaime preselye on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 2:30 pm
Is she talking about Trump or me in the beginning of the video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmrWW_aiDrM
ctv news on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 2:45 pm
It takes a lot of bomb to destroy a city. could work for perimeter control. What is the precision you can achieve with that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1CecUrx-SQ
alin jamil on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 3:26 pm
Cool I get free personalized army video. You were able to find enough guys with an high IQ to run these. I am surprised but it is a good news.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpzPz65Wqf0
Yest hightiq on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 4:01 pm
I told you that you need high IQ people to run a modern army.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1b1LMFihSWs
Jean laporte on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 4:15 pm
I told you that you need high IQ people to run a modern army.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1b1LMFihSWs
This is why they are panicking and they are trying to boost the birth rate. If you don’t have enough high IQ people modern civilization will die. See the video above, this show you why without high IQ people this civilisation will die. I have to explain everything because you are so fucking stupid.
elain laporte on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 4:34 pm
They know what I know. This civilisation will die because there is not enough high IQ people to keep alive. As I like to say, you have already lost the West, you just don’t have the IQ to see it.
As I like to say, only the chosen ones will lives, everyone else will die.
welling alan on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 5:47 pm
Sure don’t lack imagination regarding sexual clothing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ll6tfxThrMI
MY NEIGHBOR got big testicles on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 7:30 pm
I APPOINT elite supertard president eee supertard and all elite supertard presidents supertards
Their title is ‘the lover’ of supremacist muzzies
Denis lapierre on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 3:06 am
I was watching this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ll6tfxThrMI
In the other realm, such as sex realm and war realm you had quality realms there were well designed.
In the war realm you had good weapon, that work all the time, that were pretty and were really lethal.
See Judge Dreed movie for a idea of the quality weapons or Border land movie. Look at the gun that she has. Real nice weapon. You see her gun at 0:00. You really had the feeling that these realms where created by superior beings.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lU_NKNZljoQ
Same with sexual realm. You had female out there totally exquisite.
Once you have travelled other realm, you became to hate earth and the people that live with in earth. You want to see earth destroy because you know it is a low quality creation.
Fore greating on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 3:10 am
Once you travelled other realm. You loose respect for earth and the people living in it. You know that you live among mediocrity and stupidity and you are wasting you life.
Plastic Bertrand on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 3:20 am
Once you travelled other realms, you know that earth cannot be fixed. Might as well destroy earth and kill everyone. You know you live among losers.
Look at the F-35 and F-22. What kind of shit weapon is that. It carried a small amount of ammunition and the lethality is really low if you ask me. Required constant maintenance and the performance on the field are really low.
Even the A-10 is a crappy weapon. Can fire only a small amount of ammo before it overheat.
You have not seen real weapons, until you travel to the realm of war.
ctv news on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 3:28 am
Earth is populated with losers that cannot make it into other realms because they are heavily mentally retarded. They found refuge on earth because they are unable to adapt to other realms. Earth if a fucking garbage can
Kainre graham on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 3:36 am
The is the best war story line we have here on earth Israel fighting Iran for survival and declaring war on each other but actually not fighting for real. This is the best earth has to offer. Go to the realm of war if you want real war and real fun. Don’t come to earth.
Earth is such a mediocre planet.
Jaime Presley on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 3:40 am
Earth has not seen real weapons. Firearms are not really weapon. They are toys. You should see what they have in the other realms in term of weapons.
Joe martineau on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 4:01 am
Once you feel their icy kiss, life on earth you won’t miss. This song is getting is right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tz5sYDxruXg
Only fucking low losers on this planet.
Yellow eartn on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 4:05 am
This is the best war scenario earth has to offer. Nobody like the Jews, yet their still pushing the fucking Jews into everyone face on a daily basis. This is not a real war senario. This is fucking joke.
‘We’re Not Going To Allow Them To Have A Nuclear Weapon’: Trump Puts Iran On Notice
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2q49DdGg8U
this is the best you have to offer to earth, constant never ending news about the Jews and Israel. This is the best you can do.
Daniel Picard on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 4:08 am
This is the best that earth has to offer to a King like me. Constant news about the Jews, Israel and violence against women. This is the best earth has to offer me. Maybe I will destroy earth and kill everyone on it.
I APPOINT elite supertard president eee supertard and all elite supertard presidents supertards Their title is ‘the lover’ of supremacist muzzies on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 4:24 am
MY NEIGHBOR got big testicles
Jean laporte on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 4:32 am
I can see the publicity they are doing about earth. Come to earth where we speak all the time about peace, the Jews, Israel and violence against women. Come to earth, we have created the perfect realm for you. Don’t visit the sexual realm, or the war realm or the realm animal hybrid. Come to earth for an exciting life.
We have shit firearms that are inefficient and shit miliary equipment that are barely lethal on the battle field. Come to earth we have the most beautiful animal wild life you can image. Come to earth to experience the flesh body, where you piss and shit all the time. We will teach to worship shit and piss. Come to earth to see how we put piss and shit on agricultural crop to make it grown. Earth the perfect place to live your entire life on it.
Earth the prefect destination to fulfill your all dream. We will take care of you and put you in a smart city that we designed ourself.
Obama barack on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 5:08 am
Come to earth to experience the flesh body, where you piss and shit all the time. We will teach you how to worship shit and piss properly. Come to earth to see how we put piss and shit on agricultural crop to make it grown. Earth the perfect place to live your entire life on it.
There is a reason why there was a rebellion on earth against fertile women and pregnant women. It was our way to permanently destroy earth reality by stopping human procreation.
Some of us think that living in the realm of piss and shit it is not something that should be allowed to continue.
jean merci on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 5:16 am
As I said kill, a pregnant women, pull the baby out of her womb, show Satan the dead baby. He will know what is happening. start a crusade against fertile women and pregnant women. He will understand what is going on.
Heline marine on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 5:41 am
Start a crusade against fertile and pregnant women. Satan will understand that you are trying to destroy his creation for ever.
Alain laporte on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 7:33 am
The testosterone enhancer is how I like to call them. You keep some of them around you to keep your testosterones high and keep you in an aggressive mood. I am not totally sure of that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzx2bTvoeJM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ll6tfxThrMI
Both of them could be classified as testosterone enhancer.
Regit yellow on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 8:05 am
There is no love between a testosterone enhancer and the owner. I think almost all of them are infertile. I am not sure of that, I might be talking BS.
elaine trembleam on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 8:23 am
If I remember correctly, there were a set of rules and a contract between the testosterone enhancer and the owner. I don’t remember what the contract was. I could be talking BS also.
The don’t share the same bedroom and same bathroom. There was a set of rules. It is not coming back to me.
Relam olim on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 8:39 am
It was an ownership contract of some kind. I don’t remember the details.
Yellen farne on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 8:50 am
Obviously, there were a list of sexual acts that she had to perform with a satisfactory performance. That the reason she was there.
Joe laporete on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 9:14 am
When an ownership contract was publicly opened. You should have see them competing against one another and hating on each other. Fucking useless whore. If you have seen what I saw, you would have lost all respect for women. They you realized that earth is a crappy creation worth destruction.
Helien marcille on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 9:21 am
There is multiple reasons for why a crusade against fertile women was started. No human procreation means destruction of earth reality. Some of us hated earth so much, that we went forward and started a crusade against fertile women.
Heline farne on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 9:27 am
You had to kill the testosterone enhancer when her contract expired. They would not leave. So we just killed them. If you saw what I saw.
Some of us got fed up with this shit and we decided to terminate earth reality.
Yellin marcotte on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 10:07 am
The negro is funny with his cigarette in his mouth. We used to see man smoking like that before the campaign against tobacco. The good old days. Negro looks really cool with his cigarette.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHA6t-bLwkI