It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.

The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.

Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.

A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
xena laforge on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 4:24 pm
I was always under divine protection since I am born. Now I can clearly see that when I look back at the last 50 years of my life.
I don’t know why I am writing this, but I did war before, I rape women before, I kill men, women, children and babies before.
eleine denis on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 6:40 pm
The last time I bought a car from a dealership was 1995. I am so out of touch from the real world. I just look on Ford Canada website for the F150 Tremor, Things have changes a lot.
ulsys regis on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 9:21 pm
They were planning to hide behind the IA to manage the world.
For example, they would make a press conference and tell us that the IA said that eating meat is not good for the human body. the IA recommended that we cut the meat consumption to one meat portion by week.
Another example, they would come and said, the IA said that living in the country side produces more carbone and is killing the wild life. The IA recommended that people move into cities. We are therefore making a law to restrict the gasoline delivery to people living in the country side. Deliveries will be cut by 30% to protect the wild life as suggested by the IA.
carline welling on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 9:27 pm
Another example. The IA told us that living alone is not good for one person mental health. The IA suggested that we work together as one entity to help each other fight against mental health problems. You see what kind of bastard they really are.
denail ferime on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 9:31 pm
WEF President: We’re all in the same boat in a globalised world
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2UtI19Lk0c
lola kimmel on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 9:38 pm
You sees, here, they are trying to tell us that as IA move forward it will become more accurate therefore being able to make better decisions regarding the future of humanity.
From 2015:
Around the same time that AI was first defined, there was another concept that emerged: intelligence amplification (IA), which was also variously known as cognitive augmentation or machine augmented intelligence.
https://www.weforum.org/stories/2015/10/what-is-intelligence-amplification/
I can read their minds as if I was the one that has created them.
xenod tyelloe on Sat, 11th Jan 2025 9:46 pm
Artificial intelligence saving the natural world
https://www.un.org/en/desa/artificial-intelligence-saving-natural-world
Another example, they would come and said, the IA said that living in the country side produces more carbone and is killing the wild life. The IA recommended that people move into cities. We are therefore making a law to restrict the gasoline delivery to people living in the country side. Deliveries will be cut by 30% to protect the wild life as suggested by the IA.
I know exactly how these people think and behave. I feel sometime that I am their creator to know them that well.
Jean laporte on Sun, 12th Jan 2025 1:10 am
MY vision has changed a lot. Certain stars in the sky at night are of color light orange not white. I can now detect small color changes. The holographic projection is more obvious now compare to a month ago, especial the ones on the red led digits display.
You should come out and identify yourself while you still have a chance. You should also ask the medical establishment to make a press conference to explain why people neck got longer and why it is happening while you still have a chance.
Look at the garbage they feeding us as the hospital: Hydroxyde de sodium et (ou) acide chlorhydrique.
https://pdf.hres.ca/dpd_pm/00077848.PDF
L’acide chlorhydrique est un gaz très corrosif, qu’il faut manipuler avec précaution.
https://sante.journaldesfemmes.fr/fiches-medicaments/2830327-acide-chlorhydrique-role-effets-dangers-utilisation/
jerme parteille on Sun, 12th Jan 2025 1:26 am
This signals the beginning of disabling the police forces so we can kill some of you easier.
Queensland Police poaching Victorian officers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSmTqM0vn9g
heline regis on Sun, 12th Jan 2025 1:29 am
This signals the beginning of disabling the police forces so we can kill some of you easier.
Queensland Police poaching Victorian officers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSmTqM0vn9g
As I said previously, You should come out and identify yourself while you still have a chance. You should also ask the medical establishment to make a press conference to explain why people neck got longer and why it is happening while you still have a chance.
ctv news on Sun, 12th Jan 2025 8:07 am
You need an high IQ to understand this movie.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVu8WTAeBiU
regis lavbaime on Sun, 12th Jan 2025 8:52 am
Sa bouche en trou de cul de poule. C’est comme ca que mon père décrivant la bouche a Mulroney, une bouche en trou de cul de poule.
Falardeau parlait un Français impeccable, mais he refusait de la parler just pour va chier. Falardeau parlait un Français plein de sacres juste pour faire chier l’élite. De guy understand exactly in what kind of world we are living in.
joe laporete on Sun, 12th Jan 2025 9:55 am
Occultists Worship Numbers.
https://lionessofjudah.substack.com/p/the-occult-is-the-spiritual-foundation?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=5kznb&triedRedirect=true
The worship number so much that they went from a 5 volt logic for computers to a 3.3v logic. Why do you think you cell phone has a charger of 5v. Because the battery of your cell phone function is 3.3 volts.
https://www.amazon.ca/3-3v-regulator/s?k=3.3v+regulator
Who create a 3.3 volt voltage regulator.
https://somanytech.com/5v-to-3-3v-converter-circuit-schematic-and-modules/
treame gaston on Sun, 12th Jan 2025 9:58 am
People have no idea with what we are dealing with. You need divine protection to be able to do what I am current doing on earth, exposing them.
Karin pierre on Mon, 13th Jan 2025 12:16 pm
UK & Ireland Freeze, Gas “Concerningly Low”; All-Time Record Cold In Qatar; Rare Chill Sweeps Taiwan; + 56% Of The U.S. Is Under Snow, Extreme Cold Inbound. See also California fires. Total destruction of earth is coming as I said it would happen.
I told you that I would kill everyone one earth because of canada firearms laws. Nobody has ever took away from me my weapons before and it will never do it again in the future because I will kill everyone earth.
Bill obakme on Mon, 13th Jan 2025 12:29 pm
Never take away the weapons of a man, you never know what you will unleash upon yourself. I have seen destruction that you could never imagine possible. Never do that.
Nadine charrtest on Mon, 13th Jan 2025 12:48 pm
The reason why I am not commenting about California fires because this is not destruction in my book. I have seen real destruction and you are about to see for yourself. Nobody confiscate my weapons and live to brag about it.
welling helling on Mon, 13th Jan 2025 1:15 pm
Destruction so intense that nothing was left. Only the chosen ones saw everything and live through the destruction. Everyone else died. You don’t have an IQ high enough to image such a scene of destructions.
Oh, all I see turns to brown
As the sun burns the ground.
And my eyes fill with sand
As I scan this wasted land.
Tryin’ to find, tryin’ to find where I’ve been, ah-ah, ah-ah…
Oh, pilot of the storm who leaves no trace
like thoughts inside a dream.
Heed the path that led me to that place with yellow desert stream.
My Shangri-La beneath the summer moon, I will return again.
Sure as the dust that blows high in June, when movin’ through Kashmir.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_6M254L0XU
What is happening in California is not destruction. People have not seen real destruction.
Nandime larmaye on Mon, 13th Jan 2025 7:20 pm
I am destroying earth for a question of firearms laws. Why don’t you abolish the laws, maybe I will show some clemency. You will let me kill everyone on earth because you are cowards incapable of abolish Canada firearms laws. You have to see it to believe it.
heline carelle on Mon, 13th Jan 2025 7:33 pm
Roll the show forward. Earth population does not deserve to live. We move forward and kill earth population at accelerated speed. I hate this place. Set the earth in fire by electrically shorting the North and South magnetic pole. My body is not read for that yet. As soon as possible we kill everyone on earth.
celine dion on Mon, 13th Jan 2025 9:38 pm
Avec les résultats pour kashmir lyrics.
Voulez-vous voir les résultats uniquement pour kashmier lyrimc ?
Kashmir
Oh, let the sun beat down upon my face, with stars to fill my dream.
I am a traveler of both time and space to be where I have been.
To sit with elders of a gentle race this world has seldom seen.
Who talk of days for which they sit and wait
When all will be revealed.
Maybe I am the traveler of both time and space and I am here to kill of you because of Canada firearms laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_6M254L0XU
valeire desquit on Mon, 13th Jan 2025 9:53 pm
This was the last a time traveler was denied weapons by any kind of authority. In this case, the government of Canada. This is about making sure that next time a time traveler can easily get personal protection if he needed in any reality that has weapons. Earth will be made an example.
valrioe yellow on Mon, 13th Jan 2025 10:44 pm
This is funny including the play boy at 16:06. They are making fun of the fitness industry.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apwXpAlSkP8
seleind lapote on Tue, 14th Jan 2025 10:16 am
I am not here on earth to help you and by your friends. I am here to kill everyone living on earth and make sure that when I leave everyone is dead. Nobody confiscate my weapons from me and live especially not the government of Canada.
xeno lappote on Tue, 14th Jan 2025 12:41 pm
This is your fucking politicians and elites describe in a song call Behind blue eyes. Rock classic songs are full of messages form the past.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMrImMedYRo
No one knows what it’s like
To be the bad man
To be the sad man
Behind blue eyes
No one knows what it’s like
To be hated
To be fated
To telling only lies
The speak only the langage of lies. The bible talk about that also.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnLI0n__hb4
Everyone will be killed on earth, and I am here to make sure of that.
Ferlene pieerep on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 9:40 am
This is not rough and violent enough. If a bitch cannot pass the warrior test during rape, she shall be killed during sex, like it used to be. See 6:10 when choking her with the dildo. If the bitch cannot pass the warrior test, she must be killed during sex.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/pascalssubsluts-sub-redhead-sophia-locke-dominated-by-dilf-xhVkNQ0
Heline amricel on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 9:47 am
If a bitch die during the warrior rape test, it means the she was not a good breeder and she deserve to die during the rape scene.
xene deldoe on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 9:54 am
I told you to never confiscate the weapons of a man like Canada did to me. You never know what you will unleash upon yourself with such a stupid move.
weelind jasmine on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 10:14 am
Normally up to 70% of women get kill during the warrior rape test. Very few women have what it takes to become good procreators. A lot o women get kill during this selection process.
deanile lafge on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 10:30 am
If I remember correctly the ideal ratio of women dying during the warrior rape test should be around 80% Only 20% of women should survive the test. This is how earth was designed initially. Don’t worry we will kill everyone on earth restart from scratch.
Germain laplante on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 10:37 am
Never confiscate the weapons of a man. You never know what will happen next. You could have keep your piece of shit reality alive if you had abolished the Canadian firearms laws 2 year ago. You are just stupid fucking low IQ pieces of shits.
heline labotte on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 10:44 am
Earth was never designed as a peace realm. Earth was supposed to be a realm of war, warriors, blood and death. Peace is destruction of the initial realm.
betrane jones on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 11:04 am
By the age of 20 year, only 20% of women where supposed to be alive, the rest killed during warrior rape test at an earlier age.
regit laeuame on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 11:44 am
This is not violent enough for me.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/sub-milf-throats-in-3way-with-pascal-white-xha60NB
veleair jenad on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 11:49 am
It was a really bad idea to confiscate my handguns using restrictive laws. Never do that, you don’t know what you will unleash upon yourself.
lain delone on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 12:05 pm
You have no idea what kind of violent beast you have built by confiscated weapons of men like me. You have no idea what you did. you basically destroy earth be confiscating weapons.
valrie jene on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 12:20 pm
I told you that the West is dead and will never be rebuilt after it collapses. You are too mentally retarded to see that. Time will prove me right.
valire forest on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 12:28 pm
I cannot figure if he is mocking us or if he is being serious.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JotX5cB6us
deniw lafleur on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 1:55 pm
Some women were raped with a loaded gun in their mouth and force to lick the barrel. If they failed to lick the barrel gently, the gun would accidental discharge and kill them. Women live has no value and from my point of view, it was the right way to treat women.
lola elaina on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 2:04 pm
There is nothing more pleasurable in life then the dead and suffering of women. After all, it is their fault if I cannot carry an handgun on me, it is always all women fault. If you wanted to keep your civilisation running bit longer, you should had kept your women chained at a tree.
verizon laue on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 2:33 pm
You already lost control of planet earth. You just don’t know it yet because you are too mentally retarded. Everyone will die on earth, just are not intelligent enough to see it. Women will be hunted down like the mere primitive animals that they are.
vetrione denis on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 2:48 pm
1:37 this is called the kiss of death. Meaning we are coming to kill you, women. Fucking whores daring to take away my guns from me. This is not over fucking whores.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IACs-gy90kQ
menaer elaine on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 2:55 pm
When men like me are done destroying Québec and Canada, there will be nothing left.
yellwb willing on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 3:12 pm
There is something called the prefect timing when you want to destroy something permanently. When the police force are disabled because of the lack of car mechanics, when the army has recruiting problems, when the financial collapse is about to happen, when people have given up on maintaining your civilization, this is when guys like me will move in and destroy everyone and kill women. It is not the time yet but it is coming fast.
graime bell on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 3:20 pm
Some of you are not intelligent and some of you have not travel through space and time. Some of you have limited understanding of how this world works. You are about to see shit you never thought you would see.
Oh, let the sun beat down upon my face, with stars to fill my dream.
I am a traveler of both time and space to be where I have been.
To sit with elders of a gentle race this world has seldom seen.
Who talk of days for which they sit and wait
When all will be revealed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_6M254L0XU
jean lapierre on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 3:32 pm
The damage you can do with a chain saw or a battery power grinder is 1000 bigger that anything you can accomplish with an handguns.
I would put a security guard next to any wooden electrical pole if I were you.
Nobody confiscated from me my weapons. Nobody did it before and nobody will ever do it to me again.
relaid latendresse on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 3:37 pm
With a battery power grinder I can cut any type of locks and enter in any kind of buildings and set it fire from the inside. You handguns are not dangerous at all compare to the damage I can do with a grinder.
familly guy on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 3:47 pm
There is a moment to destroy infrastructure that will result in permanent damages and will never be fixed and repair. We are not there but is coming fast. I call that the point of free rebellion. I told you to not fuck around with my firearms.
heline eeli on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 4:31 pm
1:10 when she pushed his head on her stomach. I call the procreation sex. She wants him to sexually excited because she wants to be raped.
Like a fucking animal, she is forcing him to smell her vaginal odor.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93IytwXFD1E
I hate sexual reality.
xement seme on Wed, 15th Jan 2025 4:55 pm
Jiu Jitsu is a procreation method that is supposed to happen between a man and woman. This is no a combat sport. This is how I have always seen it. It is a mean to force the face of man into close proximity of female sexual organs either vagina or ass hole to simulate him sexual.