It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
allomoi on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 10:48 am
It is not the first time we commit mass genocide and kill entire population of undesirable beings. It won’t be the last either.
allode on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 10:56 am
I will restore earth to its original purpose. I will kill all women, children, gays, feminized men. Only talented men will stay alive. Everyone else will die.
allo moi on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 11:08 am
After the collapse, the West will never be rebuilt. You don’t understand the level of internal sabotage we did to the West from the inside. The West is already dead and its population is already dead also. You don’t have the IQ to understand with we did to the West.
allotoi on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 11:16 am
You don’t have the IQ needed to understand how we sabotaged the West from the inside and why there will be no rebuilding of the West. Trust me, you will all die.
allotoi on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 11:22 am
The Helene Hurricane damage will probably cause internal mass migration as people in Florida will leave Florida for other location. Depending on the internal migratory patterns, some place will be overload with migrants and might cause friction that will lead to chaos in certain cities and the destruction of these cities. We are just beginning kill earth population.
aldoe on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 11:35 am
Women are the best weapons ever created to destroy civilisations. Why do you think we are using them as weapons and feel no shame or guilt. You welcome your own destruction by creating firearms laws and putting men as slave of women. No mercy will be shown toward earth population.
aalotoi on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 12:00 pm
You fucking losers really thought you were protecting women with your firearms laws. No you were sabotaing your nations from the insde.
Go to section E and F of the from below
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5592e.pdf
Anyone with a bit of IQ knows that you don’t demoralized your population with what we see in section E and F. Everyone knows that you take care of the people doing the hard manual labor that keep your civilization alive. You are really mentally retarde to have include section E and F in this form. You are telling directly to masculine talented men that women rules over them and they have no purposes other then keeping women alive. Fuck you are stupid.
allomoi on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 12:16 pm
Texas has created its own stock exchange. They are building themself as in independent nation and eventually they will sperate from the rest of the US. Texas understand the concept of freedom unlike Canada where talented men are being told directly to their faces that they don’t matter. Texas will sperate from the US and start giving fast citizenship to talented men. Ccanada will lose all its talented people inside a year.
Go to section E and F of the from below
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5592e.pdf
Anyone with a bit of IQ knows that you don’t demoralized your population with what we see in section E and F. Everyone knows that you take care of the people doing the hard manual labor that keep your civilization alive. You are really mentally retarde to have include section E and F in this form. You are telling directly to masculine talented men that women rules over them and they have no purposes other then keeping women alive. Fuck you are stupid.
alloe on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 12:27 pm
Texas is waiting for the collapse of the USA to build its own nations and separate from the USA. Chaos brings opportunity to sperate and create your own nation. Canada always shitting on the talented men days in and days out will not survive what is coming ahead.
aalode on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 12:31 pm
Texas Stock Exchange Poaches Wall Street Talent
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWYivvQYe58
Unlike Canada, some people understand that you need talented people to build and maintain a nation. As the demographic decline accelerate, talented people will be in demande and will smart moving to new lands. canada is fucked.
aldoe on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 12:37 pm
Go to section E and F of the from below
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5592e.pdf
Anyone with a bit of IQ knows that you don’t demoralized your population with what we see in section E and F. Everyone knows that you take care of the people doing the hard manual labor that keep your civilization alive. You are really mentally retarde to have include section E and F in this form. You are telling directly to masculine talented men that women rules over them and they have no purposes other then keeping women alive. Fuck you are stupid.
I still cannot believe Canada had
the balls the tell talented men like me to go fucking themself in a firearms license form.
aldoe on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 12:40 pm
look at the face of the bitch how upset she is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWYivvQYe58
allo on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 12:48 pm
As the demographic decline accelerate, the number of available talented men will decline. If a nations want to survive it will need to find a way to attract them. canada does not stand a chance against place like Thailand, Vietnam, Texas and Brazil. I expect that nations will start to fight each other to attract talented men with fast citizenship. canada is on the losing side of this war.
allome on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 12:53 pm
Depending how things will unfold, there might be a migration and demanded for talented people. Where would they go: Texas, Brazil, Thailand are moslt like the winner in this race. Canada is with the loser at the bottom of the lsoer list.é
aalmoi on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 12:57 pm
Women and kids are going to be the big losers in the coming demographic collapse. talented men with no kids and wife stand to benefit the most from the collapse.
allomoi on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 1:12 pm
In the demographic situation, the West will lose this war as talented people: car mechanics, heavy equipment mechanics, welder, pipe fitter, electricians stand to gain to most. The loser are the politicians, CEO, management, banker, DEI consultants. journalist, media people, governmental paper pusher
aldoet on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 1:35 pm
I told you that the West is dying. Never piss off you talented men like canada did in its firearms licences form.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBtBZSTUtEM
With the demographic decline talented men will have the upper hands and will be able to relocate into other nations. I told you that we sabotaged the West from the inside.
aldoe on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 1:50 pm
The biggest winner will be South East Asian and Brazil. The biggest loser in all of the will the West.
allo toi on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 1:55 pm
The biggest winner in what is coming ahead are the talented single men with no kids. The biggest loser in what is coming ahead are women and kids.
aalome on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 2:06 pm
Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas just said this:
I must pay tribute to the men and women helping the survivors …
this kind of cheap talk does not work anymore as a manipulative tool to get voluntary participation of talented men like me into helping parasites in distress that cannot survive on their own. You are on your own.
Go fuck yourself . you are on your own
allomoit on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 2:16 pm
I wanted an hand gun for personal protection but Canada told me to go fuck myself.
I am telling to Canada to go fuck itself because I will not be there to help canada in any form.
Watch carefully what will happen to the survivors of Helene hurricane. They will abandon and left to die on their own as it should be. Stop abusing men like me with cheap firearms laws. You deserver everything comint your way.
aalo on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 2:25 pm
My happiness will only be complete once I kill everyone living on earth.
allomoi on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 2:35 pm
You are losing control of the world fucking piece shits. You are scare don’t you fucking losers.
allodanile on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 2:37 pm
You must be now have realized that planet earth will be given to me once I kill all its population. You must know that be now, don’t you;.
aajane on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 2:40 pm
You can see the panic in his face. They know the lost control of earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhUceU-SPQE
allode on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 2:58 pm
This is far from over. Some invisible beings seem to insist that I see by myself the death of everyone on earth. They don’t seem to be in a rush to kill earth population. For some, reason I have to witness the death of everyone on earth. It must be some kind of psychological healing process I need to go through before moving forward. It is like closing a bad chapter of my life by witnessing the death of everyone on earth. I will follow your advice Kamale
Kamala Harris word salads leave social media users ‘unburdened by what has been’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6qzYdGwQBY
alldoe on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 3:05 pm
For me to be able to move forward, I have to be unburdened by what has been. Meaning I have to kill everyone on earth to make sure that my past is dead. Only then I will be able to move forward.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6qzYdGwQBY
dfnaile on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 3:07 pm
Once I kill everyone on earth, I know my past cannot come back to hurt me again. I have to kill all the population of earth, it is the only way.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6qzYdGwQBY
lpanetre on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 3:14 pm
This is what revelation 19 of the bible is all about.
An angel stands in the sun and calls all the birds to the great supper of God to feast on the flesh of the fallen. The beast, the kings of the earth, and their armies gather to wage war against the rider on the horse. But the beast and the false prophet are captured and thrown alive into the fiery lake of burning sulfur. The rest are killed by the sword coming out of the mouth of the rider.
For me to be able to move forward, I have to be unburdened by what has been. Meaning I have to kill everyone on earth to make sure that my past is dead. Only then I will be able to move forward.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6qzYdGwQBY
nathaliie on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 3:16 pm
I have to kill all of earth population to be unburdened by what has been. Fine by me, I hate all of you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6qzYdGwQBY
karine on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 3:18 pm
So I guess I have to kill all the Jews of earth to be unburdened by what has been. Fine by me, I hate all of you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6qzYdGwQBY
JejanLapeorte on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 3:38 pm
From revelation 19
17 And I saw an angel standing in the sun, who cried in a loud voice to all the birds flying in midair, “Come, gather together for the great supper of God, 18 so that you may eat the flesh of kings, generals, and the mighty, of horses and their riders, and the flesh of all people, free and slave, great and small.”
Apparently I have to kill all of earth population and walk over your cadavers as a psychological therapy.
I have to kill all of earth population to be unburdened by what has been. Fine by me, I hate all of you.So I guess I have to kill all the Jews of earth to be unburdened by what has been. Fine by me, I hate all of you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6qzYdGwQBY
karine on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 3:42 pm
That fine by me. Who do we kill next.
LetFoIt on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 3:50 pm
SO I guess we kill next all the people in the ME by using Israel as flash point and set the ME in fire. Fine be me. Let’s move on. I want the cadavers of all the Arabs living in the ME.
If this is needed for me to move forward, let’s move on. Killing the Jews by setting the ME in fire works for me as long as the Jews die.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6qzYdGwQBY
go do it on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 3:57 pm
Apparently I cannot leave earth until I kill everyone living on it. Let’s go, it is time to kill all the Artab in the ME using Israel as a puppet. Let’s move on and kill some people. You have my authorization.
ade on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 4:05 pm
Israel’s response to Iran ‘will be painful’: Israeli Ambassador to UN
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nC6Zbocbu4
Now you are talking. Using Jews to kill Jews. It is like using feminism to sabotage the West. Send money and ammunitions to Israel, I need cadavers.
jaean laporte on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 4:21 pm
According to revelation 19, a chosen one cannot leave earth until he kill all its population. Ok let’s do it. Let’s set the ME in fire. After all, we have been using women and feminism to destroy the West and destroy women. Using the same tactic again, use the Jews to destroy the Jewish people.
From revelation 19
17 And I saw an angel standing in the sun, who cried in a loud voice to all the birds flying in midair, “Come, gather together for the great supper of God, 18 so that you may eat the flesh of kings, generals, and the mighty, of horses and their riders, and the flesh of all people, free and slave, great and small.”
So I guess I have to kill all the Jews of earth to be unburdened by what has been. Fine by me, I hate all of you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6qzYdGwQBY
jonathank on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 4:26 pm
This is exactly what I want to see. Good little obedient puppet willing to kill is own people just to please his ego. Good little boy, will do anything to stay in power because it is empty inside without a soul. Good little boy.
Benjamin Netanyahu: Iran made a ‘major mistake’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zi5r1VFeE-E
Go do your job and please me.
planet on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 4:34 pm
Do you know who is empty inside without a soul: women. This is why they make a great war weapons to destroy the foundation of a civilization. See rape laws, see family courts system, see feminism movement in universities, see child protection services. See Canada firearm license application form. This is how you sabotage a nation from the inside by using women. We will use the Jews ego the same manner we used women ego.
alde on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 5:10 pm
You can only leave earth after killing all its population. this is what revelation 19 is saying. The kingdom of GOD can only be opened after I kill everyone on earth.
aldelae on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 6:51 pm
Go to section E and F of the from below
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5592e.pdf
Never do shit like section E of F. The message that you send to men like me is Canada belong to women first and exist only to please women. When I saw for the first tine, I told my self that I will never be the slave of a women and Canada can go fuck itself. You lost your nation for ever with shit like this.
Watch what will happen with the Helene hurricane destruction site. Most likely it will never be fully rebuild. Talented men will leave first and will leave women behind to die alone on their own. You deserve everything that we will to do the population of earth.
fuck on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 8:44 pm
Typical smart cities living concepts. Communists love these kind of concepts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKtfQLiEmeQ
i told on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 9:10 pm
Typical smart cities living concepts. Communists love these kind of concepts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKtfQLiEmeQ
I told you that the West has been sabotaged from the inside using women and feminism.
alaid on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 9:14 pm
This is another smart cities concept made to apaise men sexual appetite. I told you that we destroyed the West from the inside using women and feminism.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T57sjx4RCBE
Go to section E and F of the from below
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5592e.pdf
Never do shit like section E of F. The message that you send to men like me is Canada belong to women first and exist only to please women. When I saw for the first tine, I told my self that I will never be the slave of a women and Canada can go fuck itself. You lost your nation for ever with shit like this.
Watch what will happen with the Helene hurricane destruction site. Most likely it will never be fully rebuild. Talented men will leave first and will leave women behind to die alone on their own. You deserve everything that we will to do the population of earth.
aldoe on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 9:24 pm
I also told you that we will use the Jews to kill the Jewish people by setting the ME in fire. Same as we did with the West. We use women and feminism to destroy the West, we will use the Jews to destroy the ME and the Jewish people themself.
alaoe alain on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 9:34 pm
I told you that we will use the Jewish elites to kill the Jewish people. Where Hitler failed, we will succeeded.
Netanyahu says Iran ‘will pay’ for missile strikes while Tehran warns of ‘stronger’ attacks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Vi3HZGuEOg
aldie on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 9:41 pm
The West has been destroyed from the inside using women and feminism. The Jewish people will be genocide using the Jewish elites. Natural resources (see ports strikes in the US)going toward the West and Israel will reroute to other more important nations.
Lapin chocolat on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 9:44 pm
Faster I kill the population of earth, faster I can push my project forward as Kamala would say.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6qzYdGwQBY
aldie on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 9:51 pm
Canada should have abolished all the firearms laws when I asked them 1.5 year ago. You refused to do it, I consider Canada my enemy.
givemevbarea on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 11:24 pm
‘Commanding and strong’: JD Vance puts the moderator ‘in her place’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_epnr3gPLe8
Typical feminized soy boy behavior from Vance. There is a way to threaten people using your voice. body language and arm movements. He does not get it.
He is too feminized to threaten people properly.