It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 11:13 am
Same with MSNBC. Maybe it is because of labor day.
https://www.youtube.com/@msnbc/videos
Fox news is still publishing video on youtube. The last one was 40 min ago. Like I said, you can see this reality being updated with a new energy field.
https://www.youtube.com/@FoxNews/videos
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 11:21 am
Look at these two, what we did to the physical apparences. Look at them, they are the dead of the bible.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBYApSQDH2g
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 11:52 am
Look at the ears of this cock sucker. Fucking Jewish people, all fucking parasite communists.
There is no such a think as a good jewish person
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSEAQ-rjyaM
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 12:45 pm
Fucking weirdo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jux5r2onfWI
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 6:18 pm
I am not the only one who thinks that the creation of women is a failed project. Earth is the last place where sexual reproduction will happen. It is the last time that women will be created. We are moving to something else.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgbyXxzReLg
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 6:28 pm
I like Thailand. They are showing to all the world that women are just cheap whore that can be easily bought and have nothing to offer men or this civilization. The first 25 sec of the video. Thailand is willing to show to the world what us masculine men always knew about women. The are useless and only good as fuck toy. Most of them are even not that good at sex.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBwy0xefnMo
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 6:45 pm
Thailand standing right at front line of the battlefield ready to fight against evil
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 7:05 pm
Look at this video and ready between the fucking lines. Women are a failed creation and they need to go. We need something new.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUA2m2GEeA0
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 7:57 pm
Women are just fucking useless whore good at nothing. You have be some kind of stupid man to get married knowing how much women control everything: family courts, divorce courts, government, and almost all of academia except hard core sciences.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIwlGNVS9zo
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 8:02 pm
Test
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MI7PZDmDcgY
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 8:10 pm
What a fucking joke Monaco is. All fucking fake theater, all of this, just to attract tourists because they manufacture absolutely nothing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KepynX0Th0s
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 8:26 pm
You can tell that all of this if fake. They park these expensive cars in front of the hotel so people can take picture and touche them. Normally you would park these cars in a private area and you would not let anyone touch them.
See at 12:16. This is the definition of a parasite. They manufacture nothing so they have to find a way to bring money into the nation.
This fucking shit is unbelievable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KepynX0Th0s
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 9:09 pm
I was right. You are running out of copper you will have to ration it for more important things suck electrical wires. This is why you came up with the idea community police instead of law enforcer. You don’t want the the population to know that the firearm of your police officiers is empty.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPUSI019011
7:30 you can clearly see that these are brass ammunitions. You will have to ration these also.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rp02iIH94DY
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 9:12 pm
Here you go, you can clearly see they are made of brass.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/20_mm_caliber#/media/File:50BMG_size_comparison.JPG
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 9:48 pm
Eventually you will have to shut down all the armies of the world to conserve natural ressources for you smart cities. I want to see what kind of BS reasons you will come up with to shutdown all the armies of the world.
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 9:57 pm
Thailand prime minister. We will have two women in power one in Thailand and one in the US with Harris and probably more are coming.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WIj9_0izc7Y
dd on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 10:35 pm
One day, I will be like Zeus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iU5RiUoVG5U
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 10:41 pm
He is worth 50 millions, but his boat cost 30 millions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iU5RiUoVG5U
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 11:16 pm
42:40 the rust bucket with golden hat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCm6nz7LXws
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 11:20 pm
Dictionnaire
Données de Oxford Languages
rust buck·et
a car, ship, or other vehicle which is old and badly rusted:
“this famous rust bucket, the good ship Cubbie, last dropped anchor in 1945” · “an old rust-bucket Pontiac drew up at the Imperial Motel”
42:40 the rust bucket with golden hat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCm6nz7LXws
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 11:26 pm
If you don’t understand the joke of the rust bucket car, it is because you are dead inside
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 11:56 pm
1:59 Look at the trees some are startint to turn yellow and brown. Brown is the dead color of vegetation. I told we will kill you all by killing all the green vegetation. It will take a while, but eventually you will have a dead planet. I man a past comment about killing the vegetation of this website about 2 years ago. Go look back
Nobody takes away from me my firearms and live to brag about.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYFHCfivUNw
I will kill everyone on planet earth because of the Canadian firearms laws. I am just beginning killing you all.
ee on Mon, 2nd Sep 2024 12:04 am
Pause at 2:06. You will see that everything looks blurry. It is because we are installing a new energy field on planet earth. Very soon you will lose access to earth energy field and you will die.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYFHCfivUNw
I told you that I will kill earth population because for the Canadian firearms laws. This is the last time, I was denied personal protection.
ee on Mon, 2nd Sep 2024 12:18 am
Israel Sets Up Army Unit To Oversee Control Of Gaza ‘For Years To Come’ Israel is not earth biggest problem. I am earth biggest threat because I have decided to kill all the population of earth because of the Canadian firearms laws. The Jews will die like everybody else on earth.
ee on Mon, 2nd Sep 2024 12:24 am
24:03 Florida, Miami beache. Look at palms trees with the Yellow. It is me that has demanded the death of all earth green vegetation. It will take a while but it will happen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBmjCf2kI4o
I am earth biggest threat because I have decided to kill all the population of earth because of the Canadian firearms laws. The Jews will die like everybody else on earth.
ee on Mon, 2nd Sep 2024 12:31 am
You want to see brown dead leaves.
23:18 in the video below
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBmjCf2kI4o
Never again in the futur I will be denied a personal protection like Canada did to me.
ee on Mon, 2nd Sep 2024 12:39 am
You want to see how serious I am. I will show more dead trees. Go look at 15:22
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77BPHOWlszI
Never again in the futur I will be denied a personal protection like Canada did to me.
ee on Mon, 2nd Sep 2024 12:48 am
7:20 look at their faces. They are being killed and you can witness their death in real time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uGPdpvwcOs
Never again in the futur I will be denied a personal protection like Canada did to me.
ee on Mon, 2nd Sep 2024 1:23 am
Normally, I would have been ejected (not killed) out of earth realm as I represent a real threat. I am surprised that I am still here after all the dead threats left and right I made. I am surprised that nothing happening to me.
eee on Mon, 2nd Sep 2024 2:39 am
You have to love Thailand . Guy walking around and negotiating the price of a whore.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzEjdOLYKv8
tt on Mon, 2nd Sep 2024 2:50 am
The West is a boring place. Whites men will leave the West eventually. The West has nothing to offer to Whites men like me. Why do you think there is so many Whites men in Thailand. We are fed up with the boring attitude of the West.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzEjdOLYKv8
ee on Mon, 2nd Sep 2024 3:00 am
Depending how this whole thing will unfold, it is a possible that the West will lose all its best and bright Whites men as they will move to other nations. I don’t see any futures in the West personally. I am too poor to leave the West, otherwise I would have done the move.
If other nations were to decide to offer fast citizenships to Whites men of the West, most likely you would lost a lot them.
The West is dead. You just too stupid to see it.
ee on Mon, 2nd Sep 2024 3:08 am
Russian used to say during the high of communist period:, they pretend to pay me, I pretend to work.
What this means is that men were sabotaging Russia from the inside by doing botch maintenance job, doing the bare minimum, sleeping on the job and so. Basically the Russians where sabotaging Russia from the inside.
Are you sure that this cannot happen to the West. Maybe it is happening right now and you are not intelligent enough to see it.
ee on Mon, 2nd Sep 2024 3:22 am
Are you sure that men like me are not sabotaging the West from the inside. Have you looked around at what kind of maintenance job is done on school. I have inspected some schools from the outside. It is pretty obvious that we are sabotaging the West from the inside.
ee on Mon, 2nd Sep 2024 3:25 am
Have you watch a car mechanics worked on your car. I did. 15 years ago we were already sabotaging the West from the inside. You stupid fucking piece of shits.
ee on Mon, 2nd Sep 2024 3:28 am
You lost the West but you are too stupid to see it.
ee on Mon, 2nd Sep 2024 3:31 am
Men like me have been sabotaging the West from the inside for the last 20 year. Now it is starting to be really visible that we have abandoned the West.
ee on Mon, 2nd Sep 2024 3:33 am
I will destroy Canada from the inside because of its firearms laws.
ee on Mon, 2nd Sep 2024 4:13 am
Men like me have been sabotaging the West for 20 years. If you think you can crash the system in a hope to rebuild something new, you don’t know what you are talking about. As soon as the system crash it is the end of the West. I dare you to lower to interest rate in an attempt to restart the housing. This will crash the system. I dare you to crash the system.
ee on Mon, 2nd Sep 2024 1:39 pm
I might take another 2 months of break from writing comments on here. I find really funny that put my personal needs such as personal protection, financial support and salary below the needs of this operation. I cannot believe how shit you treated me since my birth. I might come back or I might never come back. I don’t how we will be able to build a relation in the futur. You treating me like shit, you are happy the take what you like form my comments but you are not willing to reciprocate and give something in return.
Thailand will assume commande while I am gone. There are the only ones that seems to understand what I am trying to achieve here.
ee on Fri, 6th Sep 2024 6:22 pm
Some people are starting to realize that I am serious when I am saying that I will killed all the population of earth because of Canada firearms laws. Some people are starting to see the vegetation dying all over the world, Pattaya, Monaco, California, Florida.
2:37 to see palms trees dying.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJYxMmqiDT0
Nobody in the future will never dare to put any kind of law on the ownership of firearms after I am done killing all earth population.
ee on Fri, 6th Sep 2024 6:40 pm
We want to me a point regarding th creation of weapon of lethality such as firearms. You cannot create a weapon of lethality and use them to control population using the fear of death. This give you a unfair advantage. If you create such weapons you have to share them with the population, you cannot keep them for yourself in order to control a population. This is why we will destroy earth reality to make sure that this lesson is well learn and never forgotten. We will destroy earth reality for ever.
Canada firearms laws are a direct violation of the principle mentioned above.
ee on Fri, 6th Sep 2024 6:55 pm
Only the chosen ones will live.
ee on Fri, 6th Sep 2024 7:50 pm
I send 3 message to Kamala Harris using the her contact page.
https://kamalaharris.com/contact-us/
Do you like what I will do to you, your Jewish husband and yours children. I am the ones that have send these message to you.
eedd on Fri, 6th Sep 2024 7:57 pm
Kamala will be elected. We will crash the financial system during her presidency. This is why we have started lowering the interest rate. We will unleash hyperinflation during Harris presidency.
ee on Fri, 6th Sep 2024 8:04 pm
Kamala represent feminism. Her Jewish husband represent the Jewish domination over the USA. Her children represent race mixed procreation.
By killing Kamala in a public space we are killing the symbolic representation of feminism.
By killing her Jewish husband in a public space we are killing the symbolic representation of the Jewish domination over the USA.
By killing her children in a public space we are killing the the symbolic representation of race mixed procreation.
ee on Fri, 6th Sep 2024 8:14 pm
Lowering interest rate will likely create hyperinflation and shortage of goods.
You already have shortage of cars replecament parts.
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/honda,2021,accord,1.5l+l4+turbocharged,3447163,engine,cylinder+head+gasket,5412
Notice the ppi chart line is topping the top of the chart. The top of the chart represent the shortage zone.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU44134413
I am just beginning torturing earth population because of the Canadians firearms laws. Nobody takes my firearms away from me.
On top of that we control the big banks that we will use to crash the BlackRock, Vanguard and state street.
ee on Fri, 6th Sep 2024 8:19 pm
We are about to take the population of planet earth and pass it to the meat grinder.
ee on Fri, 6th Sep 2024 8:19 pm
All this because of Canada firearms laws. I think it is funny, don’t you.
ee on Fri, 6th Sep 2024 8:29 pm
Do you Believe me now after reading the comments above that I was the men that send these 3 messages to Kamala Harris.
https://kamalaharris.com/contact-us/
Do you like what I will do to you, your Jewish husband and yours children. I am the ones that have send these message to you.