It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 11:56 am
Only mentally challenged people will write something like this.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/06/record-setting-year-global-travel-tourism-inclusive-sustainable/
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 12:02 pm
I love watching the West and Europe panicking as the thought that globalization is loser ground. Europe cannot survive without globalism.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1jSVl2I_n4
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 12:21 pm
The West and Europe are done. Mainly populated with useless gay feminized men. the rest of the world sees it, so is the cabal and the invisible world.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 12:28 pm
Look someone is making fun of women and their obsession about matching colors inside an house. Women are failed creation, I know it and the unseen realm also know it. Why do you think they create videos like this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_-Q1hOYeCo
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 12:32 pm
Look someone is making fun of women and their obsession about matching colors inside an house. Women are failed creation, I know it and the unseen realm also know it. Why do you think they create videos like this. Actually this video belon make fun of femininity. This should tell you what we really think of women: a failed creation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_-Q1hOYeCo
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 12:33 pm
Some more example of us laughing at women and femininity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quF1EXvRXPs
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 12:37 pm
Why do you think we will put Harris as commander in chief. Because we like making fun of women and femininity. We will humiliate Harris and destroy the concept of femininity using Harris.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dl9gPBasyv4
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 12:41 pm
Imagine that, even Singapore that is one of the biggest globalist whore is also working at destroying at women and femininity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1q0N9OYMURQ
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 12:45 pm
Even the bible, seems to say that women are failed creature.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 12:55 pm
The whole planet earth has now started to openly make fun of women and femininity.
I think only Europe still believe in femininity
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bqz3eFHw278
eed on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 12:58 pm
Thailand has installed a female prime minister. I think most of planet earth is onboard with humiliating women and femininity. I think only Europe still believe that femininity is superior to masculinity.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 1:01 pm
It is more about destroying the concept of sexual reproduction for ever. Since women are the one doing giving birth, it is normale that we go after them and destroy their image as superior beings.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 1:05 pm
Even the Asiatic are on board with the idea of destroying sexual reproduction or women if you will.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IllES8AXWQ
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 1:08 pm
this is us making fun of sexual reproduction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IllES8AXWQ
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 1:10 pm
Wrong link above. this is us making fun of sexual reproduction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4dyfGTHHwI
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 1:13 pm
Again, it is us making fun of sexual reproduction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDb1NpQqRZk
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 1:15 pm
I think only Europe still believe in sexual reproduction and believe in the concept of femininity.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 7:56 pm
If my theory is exact about the, not having a flesh body and connecting themself to earth energy grid, the rollout of a new energy grid on earth is the equivalent of killing them. Since they don’t have a flesh body they will disappear and you have empty buildings like this. Start at 5:40. Me I can feel through my flesh body that they are installing a new energy grid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-Qkj2gSdJs
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 8:49 pm
I am pretty sure they don’t have a flesh body. I was expecting to see news report about hospital overflowing with cadavers and news reports about mass grave filling-up to the point that they have no place to put the cadavers.
If they don’t see themself in a mirror, they don’t have flesh body, so they will disappear without leaving a trace. The only things left will be the solide objects such as houses, abandoned cars and trucks.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 8:51 pm
There is no news report about overflowing hospital with cadavers or sick people at all. Right there it should tell you that they not have a flesh body.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 9:02 pm
I can clearly feel the energy field changing. Some time I have difficulty to walk because of the establishment of the new energy field. I am pretty sure they don’t have a flesh body. So many videos on YouTube where they have the inside of their mouth black. It is caused by the change in the energy field and they trouble generating a false image of a flesh body because they don’t recognize the new energy field. this is the best theory I can come up with.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 9:04 pm
Only the chosen ones will stay alive because they would have received a new flesh body to connect to the new energy field of earth.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 9:11 pm
There is no news report about cadavers accumulating anywhere : hospitals, mass grave, funeral homes. It is not normal.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 9:18 pm
As soon as everyone has vanished in Québec, I try to locate a semi-trailer truck wiht a sleeping cab like hers. And I drive down toward Brazil. I will attach a second trailer to the main trailer and I will carry a pickup truck to stop as some cities and try to acquire science book, guns and ammunitions.
I love her sleeper cab. You can live in this for a while. I already have an idea
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWsA9B-kFsM
I already have an idea for a portable shower. I will use a pump like this, an big garbage can and garden house to shower.
https://www.canadiantire.ca/fr/pdp/pompe-submersible-pour-fontaine-pond-boss-1987-l-h-0590705p.html
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 9:34 pm
Why should I stay in Canada when I can beach like this for me alone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLCm-E05iv0
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 10:30 pm
Me I see the light spectrum. The dead see something else. The best example is the screen in the matrix. They would look at this screen below and they would see building, cars. They don’t see themself in the mirror.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxqUIZ6kBTI
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 10:37 pm
Everything I have been commenting on about them being communists therefore they need to control you because they want to move all of us in a smart cities is right there. They is a way for them to enslave the intelligent to work toward the survival of weak while neglecting the needs and desire of the intelligent people.
0:25 in the video below
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBCNUWn5oQ4
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 10:42 pm
Everything I have been commenting on about them being communists therefore they need to control you because they want to move all of us in a smart cities is right there. This is a way for them to enslave the intelligent to work toward the survival of weak while neglecting the needs and desire of the intelligent people. They hate individualism because it means that you will put your own survival needs above their survival needs. The communists are basically telling you that they are too weak to survive on their own and they to need parasite on the stronger.
0:25 in the video below
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBCNUWn5oQ4
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 10:52 pm
They have nobody to help rebuilt the West after it collapses because the feminized everyone. Feminism equal communism. Normally you would try to bring back masculines individualists men to care about western civilization be offering them something that they like so as changing the firearms laws. They are unwilling to share power with masculine men. So we will abandon them and let them die on their own.
0:25 in the video below
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBCNUWn5oQ4
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 11:01 pm
They are basically panicking because their psychological shaming strategy also known as DEI indoctrination failed to transform individualists Whites men into an obedient slave at the servie of the weak and stupid.
Now they are really fuck.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 11:02 pm
They are basically panicking because their psychological shaming strategy also known as DEI indoctrination failed to transform individualists Whites men into an obedient slave at the servie of the weak and stupid.
Now they are really fuck. This is what I mean when I am saying that they lost the West and it is never coming back.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 11:26 pm
Communist are everywhere and control everything : academia, governmental agencies, NGO.
Go read UN and WEF web site. You will see that it is only communist propaganda and there no place for right wing man like me. There are too numerous, so we cannot killed them. It is easier to abandon them and let them fight among themself until they are all dead.
The only way to deal with a communist is to kill them. They don’t understand reason and other people point views. Everything is about them and only them.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 11:27 pm
Communists are basically mentally retarded people that don’t have the skills to survive on their own. They will always be a problem
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 11:30 pm
They only women that will survive are the young girl between 15 to 20 year old that are willing to become sexual slave for stronger man. The rest of the women will be abandoned to their own destiny and left to die alone.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 11:39 pm
They learned from the Russian revolution that you cannot use the physical force method as way to force individualist men like me to cooperate with the weak. They known that we will sabotage their the society from within by cutting electrical poles and wires. So they came up with this more soft method of manipulation called shaming using DEI indoctrination.
They are really fucked without the voluntary participation of men like me. They seem unwilling to do anything to please us such as removing all firearms laws.
You lost the West and it is over for planet earth.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 11:41 pm
The goal of organization such as the UN and WEF is to manipulate individualist men like me to voluntary participate at the survival of communists.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 11:45 pm
I will repeat that, you cannot fix earth. only the people that will get divine protection or will leave earth will live. the rest will die.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 11:51 pm
You cannot fix planet earth when 90% of the population are low IQ communists.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 11:54 pm
They seem to be really unwilling to do anything to please right wing men, such as terminating all firearms laws. It is difficult to be optimistic toward the future.
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 12:14 am
I am against sexual reproduction and the creation of a female sex. You always end up in a communist civilization that eventual self destroyed where the intelligent and capable men eventual revolt in one form or another either passive or active form.
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 9:59 am
Earth cannot be saved and no savior is coming to save earth. Everyone one on earth will be killed because of Canada firearms laws. I dont believe in sexual reproduction. You are on earth to be executed because the population of earth are just useless stupid piece of shit unwanted by the rest of the universe. We will move forward with the execution of the populatoin of earth.
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 10:34 am
The communists created weapon of power also known as firearms. They refuse to share their weapon of power and keep them exclusively for themself to enslave the strongs via the police force and the army. Really despicable people. See Canadian firearms laws for the mentality of these people. The communists believe that it is their right to enslave the strong and intelligent for their personal benefit an d survival only, as the desires and need of others don’t matter to them.
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 10:36 am
This is the last time that sexual reproduction will be created. Same with women.
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 10:42 am
You want to see a parasite, look at Bill Maher. No way he can see his face in a mirror. Same will Colbert. Both of them don’t see their face in a mirror. They are dead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvonXLxadHI
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 10:44 am
We are moving forward and killing everyone on earth. It will be done by changing the energy field of earth. this will lead to the death of the unseen realm.
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 10:51 am
Israel war is the perfect example of communists parasite using weapon of power but not sharing them with others. The Jews are really despicable people.
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 10:54 am
The Jews were responsible for the establishment of communism in the US using academia and feminism and Israel lobby groups. Look at the Jewish influence into the creation of feminism.
Feminism=communism
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 10:59 am
Look at the screen with Bill maher. It is a way to tell you that they are the dead. They don’t have flesh body so the cannot see their image in a mirror. They have no idea that we have been playing with their images or physical apparences for the last 4 year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUAESlRJj88
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 11:09 am
You can see the internet shutting down also at the same speed as the rest of the economy. Meaning that installation of a new energy field is progressing well. The last video on NBC News YouTube Web page was 17 hours ago.
https://www.youtube.com/@NBCNews/videos
ee on Sun, 1st Sep 2024 11:12 am
Same with MSNBC. Maybe it is because of labor day.
https://www.youtube.com/@msnbc/videos
Fox news is still publishing video on youtube. The last one was 40 min ago. Like I said, you can see this reality being updated with a new energy field.