It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 9:08 pm
Then you have to deal with the Jewish media, and various Jewish lobbies. It is a lot of people to kill. Better to accept that is over.
ee on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 9:11 pm
If I was the invisible realm, I would concentrate all my efforts and time to save and help the chosen ones and I would give up on the rest of earth population
ee on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 9:21 pm
I told you, they are trying to restart the housing market by lowering interest rate. I see the same thing in Canada. If we believe the PPI curve of construction lumber it won’t last long.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU081
Notice the vertical price increase caused by covid monetary help.
dd on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 9:24 pm
I told you, they are trying to restart the housing market by lowering interest rate. I see the same thing in Canada. If we believe the PPI curve of construction lumber it won’t last long.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6bLfkNC8zg
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU081
Notice the vertical price increase caused by covid monetary help.
ee on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 9:26 pm
I told you, they are trying to restart the housing market by lowering interest rate. I see the same thing in Canada. If we believe the PPI curve of construction lumber it won’t last long.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6bLfkNC8zg
Hawker Britton co-founder Bruce Hawker says banks are “already starting” to drop interest rates on some of their mortgage schemes and long-term deposits.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU081
Notice the vertical price increase caused by covid monetary help.
ee on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 9:37 pm
I told you, they are trying to restart the housing market by lowering interest rate. I see the same thing in Canada. If we believe the PPI curve of construction lumber it won’t last long.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6bLfkNC8zg
Hawker Britton co-founder Bruce Hawker says banks are “already starting” to drop interest rates on some of their mortgage schemes and long-term deposits.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU081
Notice the vertical price increase caused by covid monetary help.
Lets assume they will use plastic water piping inside their new houses. Well see for yourself:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU325211325211
Plastic home piping:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SElvliyv61I
ee on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 9:43 pm
I told you, they are trying to restart the housing market by lowering interest rate. I see the same thing in Canada. If we believe the PPI curve of construction lumber it won’t last long.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6bLfkNC8zg
Hawker Britton co-founder Bruce Hawker says banks are “already starting” to drop interest rates on some of their mortgage schemes and long-term deposits.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU081
Notice the vertical price increase caused by covid monetary help.
Lets assume they will use plastic water piping inside their new houses. Well see for yourself:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU325211325211
Plastic home piping:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SElvliyv61I
Of course you will need copper for the electrical wire of your new house.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPUSI019011
You will need electrical wires like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iQTYdnmQjc
ee on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 9:56 pm
As I said many time, it is just a question a time before they stop making bullets because they have to ration copper to make electrical wire for the new houses. This is why they are moving toward a community based police force where instead of using force to solve problem, you use dialog approach. They don’t want you to know that they are rationing copper. It is a way to ration copper.
ee on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 10:00 pm
DO you get it now why I am saying only people that will receive a divine protection bubble or will leave earth will live.
dd on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 10:08 pm
6:39 we don’t see these of kind big strong man anymore. Everyone is skinny and weak.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCidP-Sl4oE
ee on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 10:12 pm
I told you that they were successful at feminizing man and killing masculinity. Every man now look more or less the same, skinny with no muscular force and really stupid.
6:39 we don’t see these of kind big strong man anymore. Everyone is skinny and weak.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCidP-Sl4oE
ee on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 10:35 pm
They were really successful at feminizing the Asiatic men and use them as cheap labor. It is not an accident that they transfer all the manufacturing to China. They needed as submissive labor to exploit. When was the last time you saw a big Asiatic man.
ee on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 10:39 pm
The European men look particularly feminized and have gay demeanor. This is why I don’t trust the Europeans. Europe has been completely feminized.
ee on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 10:42 pm
You cannot fix earth. Better to pass your time and energy helping the chosen ones and forget about the rest of the population of earth.
ee on Fri, 30th Aug 2024 11:33 pm
It is over for earth. The movie are starting to tell you that it is over.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dPzbM5yXUE
You cannot fix earth. Better to pass your time and energy helping the chosen ones and forget about the rest of the population of earth.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 12:13 am
They are the dead of revelation 20. They don’t eyes so they cannot see themself in a mirror.
43:32 his eyes are black because he does not have a flesh body so therefore he does not have eyes. They are the angels that have been cast out on planet earth because they rebelled against GOD.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inL8RgmAsMg
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 12:24 am
You look at the them at the grocery store and you can clearly see that their eyes are some kind of fake CGI images. They are the dead they don’t have eyes. They are probably navigating this realm by reading the electromagnetic fields. They don’t see the light spectrum like I do, they seem read something else other then the light spectrum.
Their are the dead of revelation 20.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 12:31 am
I told you they don’t eyes so they cannot see the light spectrum. They see something see else, probably some kind of electro magnetic field. I think I see their floating spirit at night when it is really dark.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 12:35 am
Men like me are only alive because I have divine protection.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 1:15 am
The only way to kill them would be changed completely the energic framework of earth. Because I am in a flesh body, it cannot be done in a brutal manner otherwise it would kill me. This why you have empty abandoned cities in the US. Because they have been killed during the update of the electromagnetic field. Slowly they will disappear as they die. This is the best theory I can come up with now.
The results done by earth calculator such are the gravity calculator are converted into some kind of energy fields. Somehow they can partially connect to the energy field and project a fake image. But the cannot access earth calculators. This is why they are worried about natural ressources depletion because they do no control earth calculators.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 1:18 am
They cannot see the light spectrum. They can only imitate the light spectrum and project a false image.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 1:22 am
This is why sometime the inside of their mouth is black. Because they don’t have a flesh body. It is a fake image.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 1:24 am
They are the dead mentioned in revelation 20. You cannot killed them by killing their flesh body, they don’t have one. You will need to kill them by updating the energy field of earth.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 1:27 am
Like I said only the chosen ones will stay alive. Everyone else will die.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 1:30 am
You will not able to locate who run this world. They don’t have a flesh body. You will need someone that with flesh body with special abilities to be able to see them while still being able to see the light spectrum at the same time. You will need some kind flesh human hybrid that can see both worlds at the same time.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 1:32 am
I told you to give me money so I can buy a better car and see what is happening outside the immediate area where I live.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 1:37 am
Try to make sure it is not too painful, if you decide to upgrade me.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 2:46 am
One time 3 year ago, at was at Canadian Tire, I saw a guy walking toward me in a straight line with his eyes closed. He was walking with assurance like if his eyes were opened when there were closed. There is a reason why I wanted a hand gun. I have seen shit that would make you freak out. I told you don’t see them self in a mirror. Otherwise the media and the medical establishment would be talking about it. I have seen shit that you only see in horror movie.
I cannot forgive Canada for denying personal protection. I needed an hand guns for temporary psychological support and it was denied to me. I will destroy Canada for that insult toward me.
Regular people have no idea.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 2:50 am
One time 3 year ago, at was at Canadian Tire, I saw a guy walking toward me in a straight line with his eyes closed. He was walking with assurance like if his eyes were opened when there were closed. There is a reason why I wanted a hand gun. I have seen shit that would make you freak out. I told you that they don’t see them self in a mirror. Otherwise the media and the medical establishment would be talking about it. I have seen shit that you only see in horror movie.
I cannot forgive Canada for denying me personal protection in an hand gun. I needed an hand gun for temporary psychological support and it was denied to me. I will destroy Canada for that insult toward me.
Regular people have no idea.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 2:55 am
Instead of that I had to make a chest knife harness. I will never forgive Canada for denying me a personal psychological support in the shape of an hand gun. It really help in certain situation even if you know that you might never need it.
I will kill everyone on planet earth for denying me a personal psychological support.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 3:05 am
You are slowly being killed one by one as the new energy field is being installed on earth. this is the reason why cities are starting to look empty.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 3:07 am
This why you have long necks, because we are rolling out the new energy field on earth. this is a dead sentence for you.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 3:22 am
0:49 you can see that she wants to cry but she is able to holding it back. Listen the sound of her voice. PLay this portion at 0.25 speed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSuesgL8ZzE
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 9:53 am
Did I told you that earth can go fuck itself. Nobody takes away my firearms, certainly not Canada. Nobody takes away from me my psychological support and personal protection. I piss and shit on Canada, Québec and the US
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 9:55 am
I told you that I will destroy Canada. Let’s begin Canada destruction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehdH2g4OnCs
dd on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 10:00 am
I have an orgasm seeing Canada being destroyed.
The Russia-China grains corridor will completely displace the US, Canada, Australia, and France
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehdH2g4OnCs
It is a beautiful morning for me. nobody takes away my firearms, especially not Canada. I just ejaculated of Joy seing the end of Canada.
Canada was not there for me in my times of needs (handgun) I will not be there for Canada in its time of needs.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 10:32 am
If Brazil or Thailand want to give me a full citizenship, I am ready to move and abandon Canada definitively. What about building a civilizational knowledge lifeboat in both nation: Brazil and Thailand. The West is done.
Something to think about.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 10:43 am
I will do anything I can to hurt and destroy Canada. I will help Brazil or Thailand to build themself as a civilizational knowledge lifeboat. Just give me a citizenship.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 10:48 am
If I was Brazil or Thailand, I would give fast citizenship to the most intelligent people of the world and build my self as a civilizational knowledge lifeboat. Think about it two minutes. We can by manipulate the international supply chain, to cut Canada, US, Europe and Israel out of the international supply chain and send these resources toward Brazil and Thailand.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 10:52 am
Thailand and Brazil have the best land in the world. No Winter. Beautiful vegetation. Beautiful beaches. This is where you would build a new Eden.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 10:54 am
Brazil is already multicultural and has a big Whites population. This would make the integration easier for talented Whites people.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 11:00 am
0:19 the men in Europe have all the same kind of body shape. They are feminized men with gay demeanor. You cannot use Europe, Canada, US, and Israel to rebuild Eden.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dilFVgmgI0w
There is no masculinity left in Europe, US, Canada and israel.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 11:04 am
It is time to remove the fat out of the international supply chain: Canada, US, UK, Israel, Europe, Japan should be cut off from the international supply chain and the resources send to Brazil and Thailand.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 11:10 am
Just like that suddenly because I made comments about the lack masculinity, the West is starting to talk about. The West knows it is over for them. You can see the look of panic in the face of the guy. They know that masculine cule white men won’t be there to rebuild the West after a collapse. Lowering the interest rate in Canada is equivalent at killing Canada and disconnecting Canada out of the international supply chain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XapCqE1w6k
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 11:36 am
The West know it is over for them including the rest of the world. The rest of the world will feed on the dead corpse of the West by any means they can, including offering fast citizenship to talented people such as heavy equipment mechanics, engineers, industrial electricians and so on. The only thing that will be left in the West will be a parasite class, academia, lawyer, judges, politicians, media people, financial elites.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 11:39 am
There is different way to disconnect a nation from the supply chain. Lower the interest rate to restart the housing market is one of them. You can also take way all the talented people of nation and bring them into other nations.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 11:43 am
There is a lot of way to kill a nations without using a war. Or if you will, There is a lot of way to disconnect a nation out of the international supply chain to help preserve natural ressources a little bit longer.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 11:45 am
You don’t need a war to destroy a nations. It can be done in some many other ways.
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 11:52 am
People all around the world are starting to see that West is done and is losing its international standing. Eventually some people will realized that you don’t keep a dead corpse alive as it only accelerate natural resources depletion.
The dead nations are; US,Canada,UK, Europe,Israel and Japan
ee on Sat, 31st Aug 2024 11:55 am
The west is just a big mental asylum populate with gay men and useless feminized men. Don’t believe me, check the world economical forum web page.
https://www.weforum.org/