It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
alice wonderlanda on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 1:29 am
At 1:32, she speaks like someone that is heavily mentally retarded and she has the facial expressions of someone that is mentally retarded.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZMbqThbYV0
Jordan Peterson on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 1:41 am
Jordan Peterson, another one that is heavily mentally retarded. Listen what he is saying and look at his body language, typical person that is mentally retarded. The first 15 sec of the video is really revealing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMqQBLZwRIE
welan herida on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 1:43 am
They repopulated the earth with heavily mentally retarded people.
Isabelle lanthier on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 1:51 am
They can create flesh beings using the interface of the biological life calculator, but they don’t control the outcome of sexual reproduction such as the child mental health and overall physical apparence. This is decided by the calculator itself, not them.
They don’t have access to the inside of the calculator and cannot control the outcome of sexual reproduction.
Isabelle Lanthier on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 2:31 am
These fucking mentally retarded cock suckers. He goes right there and he tell us that he unable to explain and imagine what is the 4th dimension but we should talk about it anyway. Why are you talking about if you don’t what it is.
4th dimension is a mathematical abstract model that cannot be imagined mentally because it is abstract in its nature. Why talk about this to people that have not done advanced mathematics, start at around 6:20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnURElCzGc0
I cannot stand these fucking mentally retarded losers.
Regain villenouse on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 2:43 am
I dont have money to buy a car and drive around. I have a strong suspicion that it is a mental asylum out there and the smell of a dying reality is everywhere you go.
Denise Lafortune on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 3:01 am
I told you that it is heat traveling in electrical wire. I have seen small electrical wire catch in fire when I have put 10 Amp in them.
Here it is what electricity is, a heat transfert.
See at 0:28
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyS2aNIKxmQ
It is a transfert of technology, from them to us.
Zero alain on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 3:07 am
What did I told you , earth is a matrix of solid only modifiable by heat. IT is hold together by gravity and friction.
Regean Laporte on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 3:28 am
They always give you examples in 2D because the same laws applied to 3D are really difficult to solve. See 8:14. These are really fun if you love frustration and desperation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pD9NxA1aV7E
Carl Lajeune on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 3:57 am
I spoke about all of this. I am tired of repeating myself.
Oil extraction is only possible because of steel, but the production of steel need heat (sometime generated using oil), it is a catch 22 system with a lot of point of failure. Why we are not dead is a mystery to me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wn62YQRG37c
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKqMp0sm7P8
Ferdinand Lalonde on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 4:14 am
Is it really like that or it is just a fake CGI video created behind a computer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=edlrjn0YTmY
I need to know what is real and what is fake.
Reliant Alaph on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 4:47 am
Is it really like that or it is just a fake CGI video created behind a computer. See at 3:16
This is pretty labor demanding to establish such installation, especially when there is no big tree around. Everything had to be transport there using heavy vehicles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jvL6-1Rb0Q
Ferland Charnel on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 5:54 am
Is it really like that or it is just a fake CGI video created behind a computer. See at 3:16
There could be doors at the ends of these tunnels made of heavy rocks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0VHTh1UPIc
Jews missing on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 9:15 am
I take it that the Israelis have sent teams over to help with the search, as well as funds and assistance for the grieving families. Greatest ally and all, you know. Always there for you when you need them, isn’t that how it works?
The Jews are always there for the US when it needs help, you can always count on the Jews when it is in distress.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XxiuIXIof_w
Yellow Jean on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 9:22 am
Another place that will suffer a lot when the oil run out, BC. They use a lot of ferry ships. BC will probably be the province to die first once oil is rationed.
https://www.bcferries.com/routes-fares/discover-route-map
Canada is will the first nation to do die.
Rachid Fadid on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 9:28 am
Without oil or fertilizers for growing crop, US is basically low quality lands unfit for human life. South east Asia has better quality lands so is South America.
Alain Gendron on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 9:47 am
Ask yourself why Whites people live on the shittiest land on earth: US, Canada, Australia, Europe, Russia, Israel, UK, NZ. Because they were forced to move there because the rest of earth hate them. They were chased away from the quality lands by other races. Nobody likes the Whites.
Isabelle Lanthier on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 10:04 am
Fucking pieces of shit Whites British and French people. The only lands they were able to conquer and keep are low qualities lands that nobody wants: Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the US. They have been chassed aways from all the other places including Africa. Could not establish a colony in Brazil, they were chased away, same from South East Asia. Whites people are a shit race full of mentally retarded people.
Jean Lapierre on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 10:12 am
I try it once with Super C. I realized that it is run and employ only uneducated immigrants that cannot read. You have to wonder th IQ of people working at Super C that set this program up. It looks like it was voluntary setup to fail. The West is really dying fast. I would prepare to die if I were you. Once oil is rationed, these programs won’t be able to take up the slack and deliver food to the population.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ri9_0nFMjE0
Denis Trudel on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 10:22 am
Notice that no White man of quality such as me is coming to help its nation. Notice that nobody of quality is showing up to help their own nations, we all want to see the nation we live it die, this is why we are not showing it to help.
Selen gamal on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 10:30 am
If your solution to deliver food to people is using a mobile application and low wage immigrants workers, it will not work. I have tried. You have to come up with something better then that. Everything you touch always turn into a total failure.
cereal jean on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 10:35 am
I bet it is a fucking mess out here. I wish I had a new car just to go drive around and see with my own eyes how bad it really is out there.
I bet it is a total dysfunctional shit show out there.
Sex ismyname on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 11:22 am
4:30 submissive sexual position with hand and knees tie up with a rope waiting for anal penetration. Typical kind of BDSM porn sex.
See also at 3:05, 3:09, 0:02, 4:15
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ujg-wGrpw-Y
Seren Eillina on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 11:27 am
Video trying to make pedophilia as an alternative and acceptable sexual practice in order to try to boost the birth rate and IQ and avoid a death of earth civilisation.
Young is the mother better chance the new born baby might have an higher IQ, this is probably how they see it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VwhlFFg_b7o
Janis Joplins on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 12:03 pm
Thailand does not fuck around. See at 0:21 her bathing suit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pq0K9ZIpfBU
Jean Marcil on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 4:37 pm
What make you think that people of quality will show up to rebuild a new civilisation after you collapse this one using hyperinflation. What make you think we will chose live over death.
Alain laporte on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 6:28 pm
Too big too much maintenance. Sell everything and move down town and live in 1 1/2 and just do the bare minimum to stay alive. Live close to public transportation. Rationing will start by the rural area and the remaining resources will be allocated to keep the big cites alive.
As bad as they are, you are better to relocate to a big city. THe first migration wave will be out of the rural area into big cites. The second migration wave will be out of Canada into other nations.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGT50gMvkdY
Denis Trudel on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 6:41 pm
The first internal migration wave is already taking place. Out of rural area into big cities. Young single men that are talented are the most likely to leave their homeland first for another nations. It is probably already in progress. The last migration wave is when the rest of the population leave for good.
Dying KANSAS Towns Where Houses Cost Less Than A Pick-Up Truck!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6yRUWAhTv0
Isabelle Lanthier on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 6:52 pm
US is a shit piece of land with dead soil. Canada is also a shit piece of land with too long winter and the need to plow streets with diesel heavy equipment. They are both shitty piece of lands that should have never been inhabited.
Caroline petra on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 6:57 pm
1:26 yellow sand left by the water. Useless land that is good for nothing. That is what the US is, useless land. Right there in front of your face.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgtdk_rJwkU
Alain Gendron on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 7:11 pm
Eventually all the fertile soil ends up at the bottom of the ocean. It is transported by wind and water ways into the ocean. Then the whole planet become sterile. This is what you are seing taking place now, on top of other many things such natural ressources depletion.
Guilbault. She makes me think of a sexual dominatrix wearing a strap on and pegging men in the ass while insulting them. Then she goes home and get beaten by her husband and she loves every minutes of it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LG_RBopKZCk
Denis Trudel on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 9:27 pm
Québec is not going to survie even if they have hydro electricity. The dams are really up North and only accessible by planes and cars. As the first migration wave out of rural area into big cities start to accelerate, the Northern portion of Québec will become desolate with no population. No population means no roads maintenance such as snow removal. This will make the operation of the Northern dams almost impossible. If you can leave Canada now, I would do it now and forget that you were evern born in Canada.
Isabrlle Lanthier on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 10:20 pm
I try it once with Super C. I realized that it is run and employ only uneducated immigrants that cannot read. You have to wonder th IQ of people working at Super C that set this program up. It looks like it was voluntary setup to fail. The West is really dying fast. I would prepare to die if I were you. Once oil is rationed, these programs won’t be able to take up the slack and deliver food to the population.
It felt like some people were voluntary destroying Québec from the inside, It felt like they were trying to force the intelligent people to leave Canada for some where else. IT felts like someone is trying to definitively shutdown Canada. Even the website was all wrong and was showing the wrong prices. My command was not showing on their website but I was billed for it. I receive an email invoice but my command did not show up on their website. Maybe this is how you start a massive immigration out of a nation.
alain berthimaume on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 10:35 pm
the message I got out of this internet shopping experience at Super C was: don’t emotionally attached yourself to Québec and Canada, your life might change really fast.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ri9_0nFMjE0
Denis Trudel on Mon, 7th Jul 2025 4:40 am
I told you to not fuck with me. I told you to abolish Canada firearms laws, I told you that we would kill you all because of I am not able to collect datas because you did not give money. I fucking told you so.
Eruption To 64,000 Feet At Lewotobi Laki-Laki; Summer Snow Hits Turkey; Europe Swings To Record Cold; Greenland Ice Sheet Gaining Mass In July; + Solar Shutdown
Ariane Lagrande on Mon, 7th Jul 2025 4:43 am
I fucking told you so, to not fuck with me. I don’t know who I am, what I have accomplished in the past, how many times have been reincarnated, which dimensions I have been to.
I fucking told you so that I would kill all the population of earth and destroy earth.
https://www.france24.com/fr/info-en-continu/20250707-indon%C3%A9sie-nouvelle-forte-%C3%A9ruption-du-volcan-lewotobi-laki-laki
I told you to not insult me with you stupidity such as Canada firearms laws.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 7th Jul 2025 4:46 am
I fucking told you so, to not fuck with me. You don’t know who I am, what I have accomplished in the past, how many times I have been reincarnated, which dimensions I have been to.
I fucking told you so that I would kill all the population of earth and destroy earth.
Janne Laporte on Mon, 7th Jul 2025 8:59 am
I argue, all what we have achieved with this shuffling of production around the globe was an even faster draw-down of Earth’s one time resource inheritance.
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/the-tale-of-two-energy-transitions
Globalism was and is a disaster on almost every aspects. Maritime container shipping is responsible for accelerating oil depletion and natural depletion.
You people have no idea how fuck we really are. The first internal migration wave is currently happening, people leaving the rural area because the natural resources are redirected toward big cities.
Only the chosen ones will live, as I like to say, everyone else will die.
Heline Marcotte on Mon, 7th Jul 2025 9:23 am
Globalism and international trade are ideas mainly coming out of Europe. Nothing good has ever come out of Europe. Look where the headquarters of the biggest maritime containers shipping companies are located, in Europe.
https://www.seavantage.com/blog/the-top-10-largest-shipping-carriers-by-fleet-size-and-capacity-2024
Nothing good has ever come out of Europe. Only stupid ideas are coming out of Europe: gays right, green energy, violence against women, United Nations, WEF, Human right tribunal. Less you associate yourself with Europe, better you are.
Denis Grudel on Mon, 7th Jul 2025 9:45 am
Really quiet out there.
Bloomberg Youtube channel seem almost dead
https://www.youtube.com/@markets/videos
Msnbc
https://www.youtube.com/@msnbc/videos
Fox
https://www.youtube.com/@FoxNews/videos
You know that I am right and everyone on earth will die. You know that I am right and only the chosen ones will live. You know you are just a fucking loser.
Alain gendron on Mon, 7th Jul 2025 10:09 am
It is 19 degree Celsius. It feels like fall. The wind is cold without any heat in it, same with soil. It smell death wherever directions I look at.
Would be nice to drive to Montreal to see how bad it is down there.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 7th Jul 2025 1:39 pm
I received my bolts, It was ship using Purolator. It was delivered to me by a guy driving a black mini van with rust on it. It was not delivered using a commercial van of Purolator.
I am suspecting that the shortage of car mechanics is staring to affect everything, include shipping company like Purolator. They are forced to use prive contractors because they cannot fix their own float either because of the lack of mechanics or replacements parts.
Everything is happening exactly like I imagine it.
Really high quality bolts, grade 8 with the proper marking.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cfbhxsqW84
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GGVfrc6eNQ
Isabelle Lanthier on Mon, 7th Jul 2025 1:58 pm
Really nice bolts and nuts. Really tight tolerances when screwing the nut on the bolt. Not like the garbage you find at Home Depot and Rona.
High quality is always a nice thing compare to the retail garbage they sell.
jean marine on Mon, 7th Jul 2025 1:59 pm
Money won’t save you at this point. But I will take it if you give some to me. This civilisation is too far gone to be saved.
Jean Lemire on Mon, 7th Jul 2025 2:08 pm
Canada is dying exactly as I thought it would. Probably the same for the West as a whole.
Jean Marie on Mon, 7th Jul 2025 2:15 pm
Why Car Repairs Are Getting So Expensive
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9DNBxpvxs0
Typical collapse. A few selected chosen ones will be given an opportunity to see everything unfold.
Alain Gendron on Mon, 7th Jul 2025 2:38 pm
A few selected chosen men will be given an opportunity to see everything unfold. Including the cadavers on the ground. Some will see everything unfold, absolute everything including the dead bodies.
Alain Lejean on Mon, 7th Jul 2025 3:07 pm
A few selected chosen men will be given an opportunity to see everything unfold. Including the cadavers on the ground. Some will see everything unfold, absolute everything including the dead bodies.
17 And I saw an angel standing in the sun, who cried in a loud voice to all the birds flying in midair, “Come, gather together for the great supper of God, 18 so that you may eat the flesh of kings, generals, and the mighty, of horses and their riders, and the flesh of all people, free and slave, great and small.”
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Revelation%2019&version=NIV
Denis Trudel on Tue, 8th Jul 2025 4:45 pm
I will assume this is real and not CGI created behind a computer.
This is what is supposed to happen during the installation of the new energy field. Only people that have received the appropriate upgraded will be able to live inside this new energy field, everybody else will die. This is what you are seeing. I have talked about multiple time. Long neck, face moved forward, funny eyes, funny ears, funny hands are all cause by the installation of the new energy field. Eventually this lead to death or energetic disintegration or vanishing without leaving a trace.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwffFzX1zqc
Isabelle Lanthier on Tue, 8th Jul 2025 4:58 pm
The chosen ones are the people whose names are in the book of life as per revelation 20. They know who is a real human and who is not. They kept a perfect historical record. after all they are controlling the biological calculator of life.
And the sea gave up the dead who were in it, Death and Hades gave up the dead who were in them, and they were judged, each one of them, according to what they had done. 14 Then Death and Hades were thrown into the lake of fire. This is the second death, the lake of fire. 15 And if anyone’s name was not found written in the book of life, he was thrown into the lake of fire.
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Revelation%2020&version=ESV