It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
alain jeremia on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 3:55 am
Again the fat White man wins the intimidation contest against a skinny small Asian man.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onTxGhxPjb8
zero helenia on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 4:06 am
Notice that they are trying to force him to apologized. This is called psychological behavior correction. Typical when you cannot win a physical confrontation on your own. Notice the whole scene and all the psychological games played by the people that are frighten.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onTxGhxPjb8
gate keeper on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 4:39 am
She pretends that she won the argument even if he did not apologized. She is a gate keeper. She is trying to protect all these cheap psychological manipulations trick they push upon people. See at 2:00.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onTxGhxPjb8
grahaim lefront on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 4:44 am
They pushed him out using the judicial system. He refused to obey the reptilian rules, he was removed using the reptilian judicial system. Ford was a time traveller.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRtF22D0DZk
eraine jeanne on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 4:53 am
This is why I said they don’t want the installation of a King with absolue power over his land. The reptilian judicial system won’t work as a way to remove none conforming people like Rob Ford. A King would just kill who ever is bothering him. This is what the Rob Ford story is all about.
zeria hekenis on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 5:15 am
If you want real answers, you will have to install a King with absolute power. This has some disadvantages and avantages. A King with absolute power is basically the law of the land, or his is making the laws that he wants.
This is why democracy is so important for them, because it comes with their own judicial system that they can use to control people that don’t play by their rules. They can hide behind the judicial system and control powerful people without being identified.
zero graham on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 5:41 am
We are moving forward and killing all the population of earth. You can do what you want but you can count me out. You should save my comments and make a bible with it. Nobody takes my weapons away from me and live to brag about. That is right I am killing all the population of earth over a question of firearms possession and laws.
Iceland’s Cold June; Big Freeze Kills At Least 9 In Argentina; Global Temps Nudge Lower In June; + No, Renewables Are Not Taking Over The World
xeri Trudel on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 12:09 pm
The real reason with the fucking British whore of Carney was brought in is to start to dissolution process of the Canadian federal government and stop any relationship with UK, Israel and Europe including France. Watch how the installation of Carney will change North America forever and the relation between North America and UK, Israel and Europe.
zeri Truel on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 12:48 pm
Carney will be used as a justification as to why we need to end relationship with UK, Israel and Europe, including France.
zero humaity on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 12:51 pm
Carney will be used to push changes forward and end the federal governments, Alberta and Quebec want to leave Canada, we will give them what they want.
Ereline Carment on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 12:53 pm
Mama always knew you would be the chosen one, get your self a shotgun.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSqpwWYs1Rc&list=RDMMoSqpwWYs1Rc&start_radio=1
Denis Trudel on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 1:49 pm
It is so bad out there in term of retail story inventory that you are forced to buy online. Cannot buy a box of 50 bolts 1/4 inch diameter in Canadian Tire, Rona. Retail will nor survive being that mediocre. I had to buy from them. Same thing with clothing.
I had to buy my bolts from them,
canadabolts.ca
and my t-shirt from them,
t-shirt.ca
Retail store are going to continue to close. They are too mediocre.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 1:54 pm
You basically don’t need a car if you live in the city and have access to public transportation. You can order everything on line, absolutely everything.
xero tremblay on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 2:00 pm
Internet shopping is well done. I will admit it, I am impressed with the selection you can get online compare to retail stores. Retail stores concept will die, the selection is too mediocre.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 2:16 pm
Actually the way internet online shopping is done, you can now isolate yourself in your house and have minimale contact with the outside world. You can finally remove yourself out of society is you want to. Finally one positive advantages of online shopping.
Denis lafortune on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 2:30 pm
This is why I will never be a King or come to help you. Online shopping selection and variety allow me to remove myself out of society and avoid human contact. Finally something working for me not against me.
Isabelle jean on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 2:41 pm
Expect the intelligent people to vanish and use the full potential of online shopping to isolate themself. I told you that you lost the West a long time ago, you are just too stupid to see it.
zero lamotte on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 4:14 pm
Nobody intelligent is coming to help Canada or the US. They will all isolate themself, now, that it is easily possible with online shopping and internet. You are really fuck. You just have no idea.
xero naradia on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 5:04 pm
The last time I went to Montreal it was 20 years ago. I don’t have a reliable car what I am supposed to do. I suspect a lot of things have changes. Demographic composition, the type of stores, and so many more things. I suspect that it looks like a dying city inside a dying nation . There are a lots of benefits to isolante yourself and very few drawbacks.
You should have given me money if you wanted a more accurate report of what is really going on outside of my limited view of the world, or my immediate neighborhood.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 5:26 pm
I also suspect that earth reality entropic degradation factor really advanced. I suspect that there are less insects in the woods, dead soil in the forest with no life in it, less variety of trees, smaller trees ans bushes, less birds, less animals poop on the ground.
I also suspect that earth reality entropic degradation factor really advanced. I suspect that there are less insects in the woods, more dead soil in the forest with no life in it, less variety of trees, smaller trees ans bushes, less birds, less animals poop on the ground.
Again I cannot verify my theory because you did not give me money when I asked. They will decide what kind of punishment earth should receive for the datas that we lost because of you.
Denis Tramblaie on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 5:53 pm
These are social housing for women because they are mentally retarded and cannot survive on their own. Calling it conjugale violence is just a way for women to hide how useless they are at surviving on their own. It is way to hide the extreme mental retardation that all women suffer. Go read what I said about women in my previous comments and how much I hate them. Women are a failed project.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-HCoVdWf2s
Johanne Lacoste on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 6:07 pm
Notice it is all men building for them housing that they will be able to live in for free. Always the men keeping alive these parasitic leeches called women.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-HCoVdWf2s
seren william on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 6:42 pm
Vegetal advanced entropic degradation. Meaning the soil is almost dead with only some small bushes. No animals around, no animals poop anywhere on the ground. I bet you go explore the forest in the North of Canada and you can start to see the death of green vegetation. See at 4:45. Next step is no green vegetation and only soil with no life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXRsZ1l5Jbw
Serene Jamal on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 7:08 pm
The first time I saw beach female volleyball in 1996 I remember asking my self if these were real women. This is not a female body, no tits, flat ass and flat belly. See at 1:13. Very weird body type overall. I remember their flat none existant ass.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmm64foPo0w
Bertran Jean on Sat, 5th Jul 2025 3:52 am
Texas is old land with advanced entropic degradation. Canada and Russian are new lands that have added to the simulation long after the creation of Texas. Just go explore the Northern forest of Canada. You might be able to see it. Another possibility, Canada was too cold to be developed until the invention of ICE engine.
Ceril Jaarry on Sat, 5th Jul 2025 4:59 am
Look like old land with no life in it. Just before turning into permanent desert.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBB0w9afXBw
The wind carried the fertile black soil somewhere else and left only the crappy soil not good for anything.
Darial Verial on Sat, 5th Jul 2025 5:31 am
The fertile soil moves around from one location to another. Principally by winds and waters. The law of conservation of mass must be respected all the time because it is a calculator of cohesion. What you see below in the conservation of mass. The mass move from one location to another. Earth is a closed system. I have already commented about that in the past.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/4CR4IKdlV_Q
zero lamelle on Sat, 5th Jul 2025 5:37 am
This is how fertile soil move from on location to another one. Causality as the matrix movie would say.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZXCcyZOyW0
Isabelle Lanthier on Sat, 5th Jul 2025 5:41 am
Another example:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jo1w9wntI4
Denis Trudel on Sat, 5th Jul 2025 6:09 am
I told you to not fuck with me and insult me with stupid shits such as Canada firearms laws. I told you that we will punish earth for the lost of datas we are currently incurring because you did not give me money. You have seen nothing yet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1QVYV5a544
Denis Trudel on Sat, 5th Jul 2025 1:17 pm
Notice that the Texas flood took place of the 4 of July. The US is just mainly shit land with shit people living on it, same as Canada. All the good natural resources have been extracted out of Canada, including wood. Only shit wood is not coming out of Canada.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMHW2H-Qfwg
As I said before, I should have killed all the Whites people while I had a chance. Don’t fucking insult me with stupid shit such as Canada firearms laws. More destruction is coming. I also don’t like the installation of the British whore named Carney, we take that as a personal insult also.
Denis Trudel on Sat, 5th Jul 2025 1:26 pm
Notice that the Texas flood took place of the 4 of July. The US is just mainly shit land with shit people living on it, same as Canada. All the good natural resources have been extracted out of Canada, including wood. Only shit wood is now coming out of Canada.
th 2×2 and 1×3 construction lumbers are unusable. 2×8 has been replace by composite wood because tree are now to small to produce a 2×8.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efs5-FCVWvg
This below have been created so because forest are running low on big diameter trees.
Only the chosen will live, everyone else will die, including Canadians and Americans.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/r8CWjCQo7k4
zeri leblonc on Sat, 5th Jul 2025 1:53 pm
Each time I see a White person, I think to myself, I should have killed all of them when I could. I cannot stand them and I don’t want to live among them. Fuck I hate Whites people.
Denis Trudel on Sat, 5th Jul 2025 1:58 pm
I can wait to walk over the cadavers of the Whites people of the world.
Carney Bitch on Sat, 5th Jul 2025 3:34 pm
I will make you suffer for the creation of the Canada firearms laws. I will make you suffer for not abolished this laws when I asked you. I will fuck the whole planet earth with a 4 inch diameter dildo until your insides explode.
Fucking pathetic Whites female that is basically mentally retarded and always looking for some gimmicks so other people keep her alive. Cheap gimmicks such a violence against women, women rights, women equality. Fucking pathetic worthless inferior beings that should have been exterminated a long time ago.
My other me is really upset at the installation of the British Carney bitch. He cannot stop speaking a weird language when he sees him. We are going to fuck you over all.
Watch us going.
Denis Trudel on Sat, 5th Jul 2025 4:34 pm
My and my other me are going to kill this piss of shit bare handed before we leave. If we cannot kill bared handed we will deal with him other way. This piece of British shit will bled exactly like I bleed. He is going to bleed like nobody every bleed before.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1dfVAUH7hQ
Denis Trudel on Sat, 5th Jul 2025 4:40 pm
My and my other me are going to kill this piece of shit bare handed before we leave earth. If we cannot kill him bared handed we will deal with him other ways. This piece of British shit will bleed exactly like I bled. He is going to bleed like nobody else has ever blee before.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1dfVAUH7hQ
Denis Trudel on Sat, 5th Jul 2025 5:19 pm
My flesh body transformation into a vehicle capable of travelling all dimensions (heat, cold, electrical field, magnetic field, void without air) is still going on. I am slowly losing my appetite and my thirst for water. I have my mouth full of saliva and I barely drink water. Before I leave the fucking British whore of Carney will bleed. If I cannot do it while I am on earth I will do with other means.
I am going to fuck earth and its population over like you never seen before.
Denis Trudel on Sat, 5th Jul 2025 5:39 pm
You are all going to bleed to death, all the population of earth. You have not receive the appropriate flesh body upgrades to say alive inside this new energy field that will be special tailor to keep me alive. All the rest of earth populate will die. Fuck you and fuck earth, fuck Carney, fuck Trump, fuck the Jews, fuck Israel, fuch the Whites race, fuck White women, fuck you all.
Denis Trudel on Sat, 5th Jul 2025 6:48 pm
You will suffer the same way I suffered, this include all the population of earth. All the population of earth will suffer the same I have suffered and even more. I have even not beginning, to deal with all of you. You will bleed from all your orifices before dying.
We justspoke on Sat, 5th Jul 2025 7:21 pm
We killed 20 young fertile females. This is way to tell you that sexual reproduction will is not an acceptable form of reality. It was outlaws long ago. I thought we were really clear about what is allowed and what is not allowed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GkoUrUtfMs
Alain Gendron on Sat, 5th Jul 2025 11:06 pm
Look at the face of this pathetic whore. Half man and half women. See at 1:31. The fucking British whore of Carney will bleed and suffer as much as I did.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6EHXniqNLE
Isabelle Lanthier on Sat, 5th Jul 2025 11:22 pm
The water is brown. This is some brown dust or sand that is being moved from one location to another. It is dead soil not good for anything. From what I can see, the South of the US is dead land with no future. Go take a walk in the Northern forest of Canada and Russian, you will see what vegetable life is about. US is a shit land with shit people living in it. Go walk in Thailand forest. You will see what vegetable life is all about.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgTRW7xWm5E
Isabelle Lanthier on Sat, 5th Jul 2025 11:34 pm
US just a Fucking shit whole that was created but the Europeans. Typical of Europe, creating chaos wherever they go. Why people are friends with the White race is a mystery to me.
Jean laforest on Sat, 5th Jul 2025 11:38 pm
No the reptilians don’t control the calculators of cohesion. Earth was setup as a trap to snare them and kill them permanently.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 12:03 am
We gave them an interface so they could connect to our calculators of cohesion.
For example, they can connect to the calculator of biological life and create things like horses, dog, cats and even humans. but they cannot control what is happening inside the calculator of biological life. This is why we can make their neck longer, we control what is happening inside the calculator of biological life. Same with gravity, electricity, weather, conservation of mass and so on. Notice that they cannot change the gravity constant of 9.8m2/sec or stop entropic degradation. Because they don’t have access to the inside of these calculators. They just have interfaces to access only certain calculators, not all of them.
It is a fucking trap to snare them and kill them.
Isabelle lanthier on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 12:18 am
There is a converter that take the results coming out of the calculators of cohesion and transform these mathematical results into light and sound.
This is what you see and hear.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 12:22 am
This is why I was able to come down to earth undetected. We control the inside of the calculator of biological life. It was easy for us to setup an exception for me inside the biological calculator of life and send me on earth incognito.
Carney is going to bleed to dead, like I did.
Daneil Gendron on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 12:28 am
In order the be allowed to access the interface to our calculators, they had to enter into our realm or territory but they cannot leave once they are in. Once you are in, you can access the interfaces of our calculators. You cannot leave once you are in. I am talking about energetic invisible beings here, not flesh beings. Human flesh beings are seen as animals from out point of view.
Jean Lafouia on Sun, 6th Jul 2025 12:33 am
This is why they care so much about net zero. It is because they don’t have access to the inside of the calculator of cohesion. They only have access to some primitive interfaces as means of access the calculators of cohesion.
We have these cock sucker in our grip and they will die on our terms not theirs.