It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
zeri quran on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 2:22 pm
If they try to repopulate earth again, it will interesting to see how they will kill almost all the population of earth and keep alive only the chosen ones for procreation.
Cerile Jones on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 2:40 pm
If it was not for mass migration and money laundering Canada would have probably die around 2010. It was kept alive artificially with money laundering and mass migration. Canada is not a real nations. I think mass migration was started by Mulroney.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KR16H8UcYGQ
xeri Jamal on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 2:49 pm
Same with UK,US and Europe. Without mass migration these would have die a long time ago. Their financial system was kept artificially alive with mass migration.
US needed mass migration to keep alive the US dollar as reference currency. They will never stop mass migration. All this deportation crap in the US is just a cheap manipulative trick to appease Whites people and keep them involve in the maintenance of US infrastructures. What I wrote above, you will never it in the media.
It is strategy to deal with a population collapse and hyperinflation, I am talking about mass migration as economic strategy.
menai retria on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 2:57 pm
Note the role in the United Nations promoting mass migration. United Nations was trying to kept alive dying nations such as Canada by pushing the idea that mass migration is good.
United Nations is nobody friend.
zeri nation on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 3:05 pm
She refuses to anser the question. See my comments above. People are starting to get it what is going on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LPHLNRKJtU
They want the new born to become citizen to keep a dying nations alive.
xeria jeremia on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 3:08 pm
They never tell the truth about anything. This is another example. This is why are going to terminate earth by changing its energy field. This kind of BS has to stopped.
xeri urine on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 3:12 pm
Trump is just a con man and globalist. He is an installed puppet. All these are distractions including birth right citizenship. The fact is that immigrants will continue to come in until the financial system implode or natural resources run out.
derie yewie on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 3:17 pm
I told you that Whites people are fucking losers. All of them.
deria kezwsky on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 3:22 pm
They are all lying to you when they pretend they don’t want immigrant here. They want them here but they have to find a way to not upset to much the Whites because they need them to keep the infrastructure alive. This is what Trump is doing, pacifying the Whites people with his deportation talks. They always lie on everything.
mere uliane on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 3:28 pm
What did I told you. It is just a distraction. THey want the immigrants here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrjUTQ4P_MI
Dear Pam is gaslighting the nation. The Supreme Court did not rule on birthright citizenship. They only ruled on how much power a district judge has in his decisions. In this case they ruled he did not have nationwide power to enforce injunction. This is a two-way street for both Republican and Democrat judges. They are limited to their district.
zeri olwisky on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 3:32 pm
Watch us pull the plug on earth and kill everyone living on earth. Watch us going forward.
xerie nerie on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 3:48 pm
I told you that the west die a long time ago. It die as soon as mass migration was started.
I told you that they repopulated the earth with mentally sick people, this is why you are seeing.
serenia perlia on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 4:05 pm
Instead of answering the question she deflects, the question is are all parents in the maternity ward going to need proof of citizenship & will the burden of vetting citizenship fall on Doctors,nurses, and hospital staff?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LPHLNRKJtU
I stole this from the comment section. What did I told you. They want the immigrants here. Even the bad ones and criminals.
erin higly on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 5:12 pm
Bigger is your population, bigger is your supply chain and more sophisticated. Mass migration is just a way for a nation to secure natural resources for itself by developing an high volumen supply chain. It is a survival mechanism to fight against natural ressource depletion and a way to reinforce your supply chain. It is about survival in a dying world where almost all natural resources have been depleted. It is also a way to avoid the implose of a nations because of high inflation and high debt load. It is about survival of globalism and the international supply.
kere xerizsky on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 5:27 pm
I suspect some Whites men like me are really upset with immigration. This is about pretending that they care about what Whites men think while doing nothing about and keep flooding the nations with immigrants. All these deportation video, birth right citizenship are just there to manipulate Whites men and pretend that they care about what we think.
It is a big manipulative operation done toward whites men.
zeru wexskuy on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 5:31 pm
Immigration will only stop once the electrical grid goes down permanently. In the mean time, they will continue the flood nations with immigrants. It will never stop.
nero zskwye on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 5:42 pm
What I am saying is nothing new.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_for_Births
In correspondence with these incentives, laws were brought in to penalize any citizens who proved to be less productive. Bachelors were taxed increasingly, and by the late 1930s, the civil service began recruiting and promoting only those who were fertile and married
The collapse is coming. It is unavoidable. Earth is a reality based around the concept of death. It is certain that everyone on earth will die.
zertry Aberzky on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 5:46 pm
There is no way people are listening these kind of shows. Number of views is probably fabricated. The real number of views is probably around 100.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V33rcUGdcEg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rcydIl0_sU
zero ceky on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 5:55 pm
I don’t have a car so I cannot drive around. But my guess is that it is way worse out there that I can imagine. it is probably a shit show out there in place like Montreal, in the forest, industrials parks, dying trees all over the place, dying grass, dying insects, and son.
ceri fezkey on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 5:57 pm
I think the grass is starting to die. I am talking about the grass that people have in their front yard. It is probably a shit show out there.
I told you that everything will die. I just don’t have a car to check my theory.
zery berry on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 6:38 pm
1:01:53 dying yellow grass with no weeds in it. I am starting to see that around here but I am not totally sure of common it is. I would need to drive around to confirm that. I have a feeling it is ugly out there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9MTF3S_-Uk
grealen jean on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 7:00 pm
I copied this from somewhere else. I bet mass migration in UK started around 2000 as a mechanism to compensate for their peak oil and pull some the supply chain in their side. See comment above.
https://avatars.dzeninfra.ru/get-zen_doc/271828/pub_66b2f29d89ca8b44d4798740_66b2f2f32c27606a59f8637b/scale_1200
zxerie breskxy on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 7:10 pm
US peak oil 1970. Mass migration started in 1965. Avoiding a collapse using mass migration as a way to develop a strong supply chain. See comments above.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_and_Nationality_Act_of_1965
Causality as they would say in the matrix movies or conservation of mass as I like to say. Immigration will never stop, if needed they will bring illegal people and given them money so they can stuff and keep the supply chain strong and alive. It is about survival. If needed, they will bring in criminal just to increase the population.
You will never head that at fox, cnn, msnbc, bloomturd. You will just that on here.
berie zseley on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 7:28 pm
Canada solution against peak oil, mass migration. See my previous comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Multiculturalism_Act
: “In 1971, Canada was the first country in the world to adopt multiculturalism as an official policy.”[4] One result of this policy statement was the Canadian Multiculturalism Act of 1985.
Just one after peak oil, it was decided to flood the nations with immigrants.
zerie zskey on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 7:29 pm
Immigration will never stop. Only massive population decline caused by low birth rate will stop mass migration.
berdy zskwy on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 7:30 pm
As stand by what I said. Canada will be the first nation to die.
zean veskmy on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 7:35 pm
I am born 1967. I am here to see you failed and die. I am here to witness how a matrix of solid based on the conservation of mass die. I am not here to be your savior or help you. I am here to see die and suffer.
cerele helen on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 7:42 pm
I told you what was the real purpose of trade war. To shutdown the supply chain. To blame all the problem we have on the trade war. Cannot buy a car because there is not enough available, it is because of trade war. McDonald food is too expensive, it is because of the trade war. Grocery stores are empty, it is because of the trade war. You see what I mean.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Saa9rvD5TQ
zero wszksy on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 8:00 pm
I made a comment a long time ago about internal migration within North America. It is already happening.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/illinois-disastrous-demographics-fewer-youth-drop-working-age-residents-and-jump-elderly
I made a comment today that eventually talented people will leave Canada and Canada will slowly die. Talented people will become in demand and opportunities to relocate into other nations will become possible.
South East Asia and Brazil will benefit the most from this and will be able to attract talented people easily. The biggest losers are the Nordic Nations: Russia, Canada, Europe, UK and so on.
zeiel zswky on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 8:21 pm
I agree with that.
The boomers have hated us since they spawned us, when they were forgetting we existed. I don’t care if gen whatever hates us too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGmEmVNFKfw
zero Jemetria on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 8:58 pm
Everybody on earth will be death before you can crash the reality using your theater. You won’t be able to free people out of their flesh bodies they will die before that. You are way behind the curve with your theater. I told you to give me money so I can drive around and collect datas. I tried to help you.
Only the chosen ones with long life might see the end of earth reality.
Nail Designs on Wed, 2nd Jul 2025 7:55 am
Interesting article! It’s wild to see such different predictions from IEA and OPEC. Makes you wonder what’s really gonna happen with oil demand in the future, especially with AI coming into play!
https://designsnail.com
alain renrmal on Wed, 2nd Jul 2025 2:12 pm
Preparing for the end of Canada or the dissolution of the federal government. Canada is sa shit nation created but the British that deserve to die.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith discusses progress toward new police agency
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SriKMwSdgcU
I think Saskatchewan did the same.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aD1PKrXlFqk
Some of us in Canada don’t what to see the British logo anymore on everything, including HMCS on Canada navy ships.
Her Majesty’s Canadian Ship
HMCS stands for Her Majesty’s Canadian Ship, a prefix used for vessels that are part of the Royal Canadian Navy, indicating their service to the Crown and Canada3.
Selena Yellow on Wed, 2nd Jul 2025 2:19 pm
Fuck UK, Israel, Europe. Fuck the British. Canada is a shit nation that was creating by the British and it will die like all the other things the British have created before.
Canada is a fucking loser nation that is unable to renew itself. Might as well destroy Canada
xero teriy on Wed, 2nd Jul 2025 3:57 pm
I told you that I would kill all the population of earth because of Canada firearms laws and because of the datas we are losing because you did not give me money. We are losing so much datas. I a going to fuck earth population really good.
Another Cold Wave Reaches Brazil; Argentina’s Beaches Blanketed White; Rare Cold Keeps Atacama Desert Snowbound, ALMA Remains Offline; + Globally, July Begins Chilly
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2dNi_BJKkc&t=1s
I told you to not fuck with me. You don’t know who I am, where I have been in past, what I have accomplished. I fucking told you.
xeri welena on Wed, 2nd Jul 2025 4:46 pm
I will repeat that, I should have never left Thailand and I should have killed all the Whites people when I had a chance. Just looking at Whites people make me want to puke. I should have finished the job by killing all Whites people.
Allo Denis on Thu, 3rd Jul 2025 2:41 am
Thailand never disappoint see at 2:55. Great sense of humor and imagination. I should have never left Thailand and I should have killed all the Whites people when I had a chance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvjfwNK_ntM
Densit Trudal on Thu, 3rd Jul 2025 3:15 am
They are modernizing Pattaya and putting the internet cable underground see at 5:31 and 6:17. I am going to fuck Whites western nations so good, and finish the extermination of the Whites race. Pathetic worthless race.
5:15 only in Thailand you will see.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eO_b4mPJ_ic
Denis Trudel on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 12:57 am
Made with the help of Ontario government. See the end of the video. Who does not like shooting a 12 gauge sawed off shotgun from the hip.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF_rB0Errr0
The Glorious Sons – S.O.S. (Sawed Off Shotgun) [Official Video]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUVDmVM9RtA
Jean Marie on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 1:20 am
Made with the help of Ontario government. See the end of the video. This means that there is anarchists inside the Ontario government that would like to install chaos inside Canada and Ontario. This means that they are some people inside Ontario government that are ok with the destruction of Canada. I am not the only one that hate Canada. I am not the one only who think that Canada needs to die of a brutal death, same as I still believe that Carney that should bleed to dead just because he wants to friend with UK, Europe, Israel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUVDmVM9RtA
Denis Trudel on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 1:22 am
I told you to not fuck me and take my firearms aways from me using Canada firearms laws. Watch me destroy the whole earth just for a question of guns ownership.
Danisle Trembaly on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 1:42 am
I did not know about that.
The French were able to achieve control of the sea lanes against the British and provided the Franco-American army with siege artillery and French reinforcements. These proved decisive in the Siege of Yorktown, effectively securing independence for the Thirteen Colonies.
[The] Battle of the Chesapeake was a tactical victory for the French by no clearcut margin, but it was a strategic victory for the French and Americans that sealed the principal outcome of the war.
— Russell Weigley[6]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Chesapeake
Said what you want about the French, they know how to do war.
uliand Jasminate on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 1:54 am
I don’t know how accurate it is, but I see that often. France is the nation that won the most battle.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/gxWVfqPbmCo
Je veux voir la salope Britannique à Carney mourir pendant que je fourre une jeune de 20 en avant de lui.
xeri helenia on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 1:58 am
Nobody take my guns away from me and brag about it. Watch me destroy earth for a question of guns ownership.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 2:07 am
Nobody take my guns away from me and brag about it. Watch me destroy earth for a question of guns ownership.
Argentina Cuts Gas, Closes Border As Cold Wave Hits; Australia And New Zealand See Deep Early Powder; + Spot The UHI Effect
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-cuts-industrial-gas-supply-004633678.html?guccounter=1&err=1
Don’t fuck with my weapons, I see that as a personal insult.
Elaine Laragine on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 2:51 am
Canada is a communist shit hole. nobody want to leave in Canada and have to endure 6 months of cold weather. Deep ship Whites Canadians want Canada to die even if it means we will die during the death of Canada. The video below illustrate that. I stand by my prediction that Canada will be the first nation to die. I predict massive migration out of Canada.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4QH7vr8XO_s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4QH7vr8XO_s
zelin Herege on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 2:53 am
nobody wants to live in Canada and have to endure 6 months of cold weather.
Denis Lafortune on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 2:56 am
Rob Ford is an anarchist the same wat that the person that wrote the song below is an anarchist. We, Whites people, all want Canada to die so badly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4QH7vr8XO_s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUVDmVM9RtA
Sery Verixon on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 3:29 am
The only people that seem to like Canada are the Chinese, Punjabi, Arabs and Blacks. Real Whites hate this nation and want to see it die.
AS I said multiple time, you have already lost the West, you just don’t have the IQ needed to see it,
Xero detreia on Fri, 4th Jul 2025 3:38 am
Canada is full of Whites anarchists. I am also an anarchist deep inside.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLei_KD78bU