It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
John Quran on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 2:38 pm
Cigarettes and guns are associated with he myth of the hero. it is right there in your face. A real warrior and hero smokes and loves guns.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/cYvyUfoS_yk
were wolfe on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 2:45 pm
The ethos of the hero, he smokes, loves guns and solves problems with his high IQ. The is what Constantine movie main character is all about.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=819JCbGfZpg
urinal Pissathon on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 2:51 pm
Carney bleeding to death in front of me, while I fuck a 20 year old, surrounded by bags of chips.
This is what comes to my mind each time I see Carney. We should have killed all Whites people when we could. We made a strategic mistake there.
verie kwewskcy on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 2:58 pm
Each time I see Carney, I think of him dying in front of me after I have killed all the politicians in Canada. I am surrounded by cadavers of politicians and I am fucking a 20 year old bitch. There is bags of chips everywhere around me. Some are full some are empty.
The 20 year old bitch that I am fucking is all wet, dripping on the floor and cannot stop orgasming over and over. From this moment, hell comes down hard on earth and never leave.
xerid jeremiah on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 3:20 pm
Nobody has anything top see about my vision of how Carney will die. No comments. Really quiet out there. You don’t want to talk.
opera zeria on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 3:23 pm
Nobody has anything to say about how I will unleash permanent hell of earth. You don’t like my vision. You don’t want to talk fucking bitch.
zeri helen on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 3:26 pm
I can tell you more about my vision. I am surrounded by other men, I look at them and say, I have to go pickup my salary in Ottawa. We are driving down there to kill all the politicians and Carney. Prepare the convoy. Carney belongs to me the rest of the politicians belongs to all of you.
xero namewe on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 3:32 pm
All the politicians means federal, provincial and municipale. All of them gets slaughter.
swelen Kwskue on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 3:34 pm
A voice in my heads tell me to go back to bed, I will receive more body upgrade and it might be inconfortable. I will obey as always when they ask me to go back to bed. You don’t like my vision of how Carney will die.
swend zewksu on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 3:44 pm
Each time I see Carney, do you want to know what else come to my mind, we should have finish the job and kill all the Whites people while we could. Whites people, despicable people.
qurn zewlsiy on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 3:59 pm
Carney to me represent what we could not finish, kill all the Whites people living on earth. Carney represent our failure to finish the job. Each time I see his face I want to kill him and all the Whites people.
zerid wqskie on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 4:07 pm
I remember now, I have always hated Whites people since I can remember, I have seek their complete extermination.
carline verlziy on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 5:09 pm
Fucking useless pathetic Whites people. It is all coming back to me now how much I hate Whites people. Just looking at them is enough to trigger my deep hatred toward them.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/2YVcrQzAFfM
Heline zwsiye on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 5:15 pm
Whites people they all suffer to various degree of mental illness. Some are slightly mentally retarded other are heavily mentally retarded. They are a defective race of people.
They are one of our biggest failure.
xeri zelsy on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 5:31 pm
if you are born into a civilisation of mentally retarded people, you know nothing else. You don’t know that you live among retarded people. this is the case here.
heline aeline on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 6:11 pm
He speaks like someone that is mentally retarded. People cannot not tell because they have never been in contact with intelligent people. You know nothing else than mental retardation. Notice note one word about causality or calculators of cohesions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6xyT6XUFz0
zeroh hedline on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 6:34 pm
There is not going to be any reboot of this reality. The chosen ones will be extracted and the whole energy field will be destroyed. No reboot will ever be possible again. I made comment about that .
zeri zesly on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 6:45 pm
When you are really angry you can detach from your flesh body and move much more fast. Thing like legs kicking become really fast and painless. You can to that with your legs and arms, You can detach from your flesh body.
You guys know about that also, I would guess.
xerie zdlduye on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 6:56 pm
You guys know what I am talking about. Having the advantages of both: a flesh body plus an energy body invincible. You guys understand what I am saying do you. You must know what I am talking about. You must know, I am sure you do.
Xero airline on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 7:09 pm
You know what I mean, some kind of upgraded body, a bit like superman, where I could walk alone in the Canadian parliament, kill everyone there, than kill Carney slowly one cut at the time while fucking a 20 year old bitch.
You must know that it is possible to do. A weightless body that can interact with the matrix of solid as if it was real but without the pain and damage.
yurila Zslei on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 7:25 pm
Fucking garbage White race. I should have killed them all while I could. Fucking worthless pathetic beings, all of them mentally sick. This is what I think each time I see a White person.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLQKkkEVH8k
Berlina Sezsky on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 7:42 pm
I should have exterminated the White race while I could. I won’t make that same mistake again.
zerei yewlsmy on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 7:49 pm
I should have exterminated the White race while I could. I won’t make that same mistake again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72k1s18cnnM
berelian olena on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 7:56 pm
I am not sure what more can I say. I think I covered about everything and revealed everything. I am out of ideas. That is what happen when you don’t have access to a car, your universe reduces itself to barely nothing and you run out of inspiration.
I try to help. All you had to do is gave me money 2 year ago. I did my part. you did not did your part.
narioln Jamal on Wed, 25th Jun 2025 8:20 pm
The longer you stay without a car, your universe reduce in size. You realize that you dont need food. Your heart beats slows down, your breathing slows down, you head clears up with emptiness. Then you discover that voluntary simplicity is the only acceptable life style. I tried to help you. It is your fault not mine. Then you realize the real monetary value of voluntary simplicity
xerie jermiak on Thu, 26th Jun 2025 5:18 pm
3:16 typical procreation facility.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cC_1nPsTrfM
zerie yeliria on Thu, 26th Jun 2025 5:25 pm
Self contain facility where you would put the survivors after of a planetary Armageddon. Facility for the chosen ones that will repopulate the earth. See at 7:46
wreidl jerima on Thu, 26th Jun 2025 5:29 pm
Same thing 10:55. Someone is planning for the future. Facility where the chosen ones will be put just before a planetary event that will kill the whole population of earth. Look like a protection bubble. The weather in Thailand is perfect.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cC_1nPsTrfM
zeria welian on Thu, 26th Jun 2025 5:38 pm
As I said before, I should have never left Thailand and I should have finished of exterminating the whole Whites race while I had a chance.
zerile urelian on Thu, 26th Jun 2025 5:50 pm
I made comment about something called civilizational knowledge hub. I don’t remember the vocabulary I used. This is what these building looks like + some kind of procreation facility.
The Whites race has to die.
zeriek cerial on Thu, 26th Jun 2025 6:28 pm
Usually these survivals hub are coming with a wood shop, mechanic shop, machine shop, chemistry lab, electrical lab. Any of these close by. You can have sex anywhere you want in these kind of places.
xere weskaly on Thu, 26th Jun 2025 11:24 pm
I should have killed all the Whites people when I had a chance. The world would be a better place without them. People make the mistake to think that the world need Whites people to survive and prosper. Whites people the mental trash of the world. All of them suffer from some degree of mental illness.
Creatia Kerelai on Thu, 26th Jun 2025 11:29 pm
Notice that I refuse to comment on the Iran bombing of nuclear installations. This is because I hate Whites people.
rettei Kzeskey on Thu, 26th Jun 2025 11:56 pm
I don’t know what happen, but I made a 180 turn and I am full of hate toward Whites people. They make me puke when I see their ugly faces on TV. I now refuse to make a comment about anything happening in Whites nations: US, UK, Canada, Australia, Europe, Israel, New Zealand.
This is why I am not commenting of Israel-Iran war. It is because a White nations is involved. I am removing the trash out of my life, this include Whites people.
zeri helian on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 9:34 am
I told you that I would kill all the population of earth.
São Paulo Below Freezing; Potosí’s Coldest June Night On Record; Rare Snow Settles In Chile’s Atacama; Hungary’s Cherry Crop Wrecked By Freeze; + Global Temperature Metric Is Meaningless
I also told you that we are currently installing a new mathematical set of equation for the earth energy field. Rebooting of the earth as a matrix of solid will be impossible. You should see the skin of my forearm change, as the new energy field is being installed.
Finally we are killing all the Whites people for good.
xeri kelima on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 10:00 am
Finally the human race die for ever and never to be reborn again. Finally sexual reproduction die for ever also. Finally an hybrid flesh energy with upgraded mental mathematical abilities and long term memory.
zeria marite on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 10:29 am
At least in Thailand there is no winter and snow. Don’t need to buy winter clothing. What a shit hole Canada and the US is. I still don’t understand why people immigrant here.
Finally the human race is being terminated definitively. Finally a flesh hybrid that can travel through heat, cold, magnetic field, electrical field and the void without damage. Finally an hybrid flesh-energy that does not need food, water and air to stay alive.
zere jereal on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 10:35 am
Finally the ugly human race is going aways. No more Whites people spreading their mentally illness through the whole world. Finally a real step forward in quality not quantity.
zerid weliante on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 10:58 am
Advanced sensorial input (similar earing) and direct mental mapping of electrical field, heat field, magnetic field, light field into a a mental picture in real time. Finally the end of the worthless shit flesh body no good for anything. Removal of génital organs, asshole, digestive system and breathing system.
zero helermia on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 11:16 am
Hybrid flesh-energy with infinite source of basic energy. The basic unit of energy can be turned into any kind of energy, heat, magnetic, light, sound using a mental interface or if you will assign a specific mathematical function to each basic unit of energy. Upgrade mathematic to remove 0 and it is a mathematical discontinuity. Division by 0 is undefined and therefore a mathematical discontinuity.
https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/3198313/a-thorough-explanation-on-why-division-by-zero-is-undefined
Erasure of the human race is the best that will ever happen.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 11:39 am
I told you to not insult me with your shitty Canada guns laws. You have no idea who I am and you fuck with. I told you to not insult me.
xeri Gretheir on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 11:44 am
Notice again the kind of comment I am making. No comment about US-Iran bombing, not comments about Canada, US, UK, Israel, Europe. Just scientific comments.
I want nothing to do with the Whites race or the flesh body. I want nothing to do with this piece of shit earth.
xero fernima on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 12:06 pm
Canada and US were never real nations. Thailand is a real nation.
Canada was always a pathetic shit hole created by the British and France. Canada and US has nothing to offer to a men of my caliber. As he said, Canada was selling itself to the highest bidder because it is not a real nations.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KR16H8UcYGQ
zeri zeria on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 12:31 pm
Canada and the US are just pathetic shit holes that were created by the British and French. That is all there is too it.
Brazil and Thailand are real nations. Canada and the US are planetary jokes.
zero weliam on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 12:34 pm
The only suitable location on earth to act as a repopulation node is Thailand.
zeria quran on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 12:35 pm
All the rest of earth is basically garbage land no good for anything.
zerie telierios on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 1:38 pm
The first step when you decide to build a repopulation hub is to push out the undesirable people out. I don’t how accurate it is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgQWK8TdE5Q
When the undesirable people are removed, you send invitations to the selected people.
First step is to remove the crap out.
zeri qurna on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 1:53 pm
Canada is just a pathetic shit hole. The reason it is still alive is because the intelligent men like me are not rich enough the leave Canada.
Otherwise Canada would have die a long time ago. US is another pathetic shit hole that will also die.
zeri heremia on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 2:03 pm
It is going to be interesting to see if they will try to repopulate earth and how they will do it.
zeri geredia on Fri, 27th Jun 2025 2:06 pm
Because of demographic decline, I predict that Canada will die first, and then the US a little bit later. I expect mass exodus out of Canada, especially intelligent single men. Same for the US.