It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
iline opera on Tue, 29th Apr 2025 9:56 am
I have to stop making comments, I am just playing your game and helping you.
ilina quran on Tue, 29th Apr 2025 3:04 pm
Clarence Thomas To Attorney: ‘Do You Think That A Private Individual Can Enforce Federal Law?’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BULVBXlUQnk
Setting up the law to allow Militia and Mercenaries to work freely without being bothered by anyone.
Some people want revenge and some people want bloods in the streets.
My previous comment was this:
You want to know why I like these.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqsVVZPQ540
You do not need to train your warriors. You can put anyone in these vehicles: mercenaries, militias group or regular army soldier. They can be repaired and maintained be you local mechanics. You can put mercenaries in such a vehicle and ask them to go kill Carney for you. Upon completion of the mission you paid them.
You fucking stupid pieces of shit, you took my guns away from me.
You are on your own. I am not coming to help you failed my loyalty test.
yellen quran on Tue, 29th Apr 2025 3:12 pm
As I said in some of my previous comments, somme people are going to come to kill some of you.
Erin levin on Tue, 29th Apr 2025 3:23 pm
Some people are coming to kill some of you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKg3Pbcoffc
Some people want your bloods even more than I do. Could you imagine that.
Ulyse fernal on Tue, 29th Apr 2025 3:54 pm
You know what is fun with an army made of NPC soldier only. They have no emotions. They are programed to obey.
Fox example you want to kill everyone working inside Radio-Canada building in Montreal. You just tell them do it and give some instructions to them. They will do it.
You want Carney dead, they will do it for you. You want legault dead they will do it. You never though about this one, an army made of NPC killing civilians NPC traitors.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKg3Pbcoffc
alaine lemeuxu on Tue, 29th Apr 2025 4:28 pm
Notice that they put a A10 that designed for close ground support. They did not put a F35, F22, F18, B2, all these are fucking useless planes and a waist of money. A10 is what you would use to control for example McGill university perimeter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKg3Pbcoffc
A10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Of15ZgnNiwk
alaie legremue on Tue, 29th Apr 2025 5:54 pm
Je tourne sur moi-même et je me déplace en ligne droite en tournant sur moi-même. Les gens a l’épicerie savent ce que je veux dire. J’ai été chanceux de ne pas accrocher les pots de confiture avec mon panier.
Quand tu prends un tunnel dimensionnel, peut-être que c’est l’equivalent de tourner sur soi-même très rapidement. Les gens à l’épicerie savent ce que je veux tire.
Ostie que j’ai hâte de quitter cette planète de merge.
terminal jean on Tue, 29th Apr 2025 5:59 pm
Ta crisse de grosse salope Britannique sale a Carney. Il va vous enculer ben solide.
rregidl audl on Tue, 29th Apr 2025 6:04 pm
Je l’ai dis que j’allais tous vous tuer mes tabernacle juste parce que vous n’avez pas eu le courage d’abolir les lois canadiennes sur les armes a feu.
M’a tous vous enculer ben solide, mes ostie de tabernacle. M’a vous enculer à partir d’une autre dimension mes câlisse de merde sales.
Oliphia Ternia on Tue, 29th Apr 2025 6:13 pm
M’a vous enculer ben solide mes tabernacles.
iliand jeanine on Tue, 29th Apr 2025 6:18 pm
Your drum parts are perfect. Really well integrated into the song.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQtf_fMswH8
alain uylaine on Tue, 29th Apr 2025 6:40 pm
Using the drum to produce high frequency spike instead of the electrical guitar. You let enough place for the drum to express itself properly instead of hiding the drum sound in the background and over powered it with the electrical guitar as they do most of time.
Your drum sound is a little bit too much electrical and need a little more low frequency into it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQtf_fMswH8
Denis trudel on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 9:49 am
you failed my loyalty test. there can be no working association between us
denis trudel on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 10:01 am
je vais tous vous tuer apres que j’aille decrisser de la terre par tunnel dimensionel. mes calisse detrou du cul
guide below on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 10:15 am
je vais tous vous tuer juste parce que vous m avez faites chier svec les lois sur les armes. ma crisse la terre en feu
denis tredelle on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 10:24 am
bass guitar could be seen as condensator eliminatinf high frequency drum is not an electrical device its is a mechanicL devise producing low frequencrpy you are a bit off in freq rangw
Karine laprice on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 10:59 am
Electrical guitar is electrical signal converted into sound and drum set is mechanical impact converted into sound. The frequency modélisation are a bit different.
the drum sound need more low frequency as it is too much electrical. Especially the drum. it is subtle but I can hear it. But otherwise I like it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQtf_fMswH8
Denis Trudel on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 11:04 am
Je vais tuer tout le monde sur la terre a cause des lois canadiennes sur la armes a feu. Vous avez échouez mon test de loyauté.
Osite crisse de gang de minable mentalement retardé.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 11:16 am
TAIWAN SHIVERS THROUGH COLD SPRING; RUSSIA SLAMMED BY RECORD LATE-SEASON SNOWSTORM; UPPER MIDWEST STILL FROZEN; VIRGINIA TURTLE STRANDINGS UP;+ THE RENEWABLE WAKE UP CALL
I told you that I would kill the whole population of earth because Canada dared to insult me with its firearms laws.
I want your cadavers for my personal enjoyment.
oledia grahma on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 11:34 am
Trump la grosse salope qui mérite d’être torturé avant la mort. Tu tues ses enfants en avant de lui avant de le tuer lui.
Crisse de mangeur de grains de juif. Trump aime l’odeur de sperme de juif. Trump est admiration avec la merde juif and le sperme juif.
Crisse de grosse salope sale.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zN8pFPk6Bpc
Denis Trudel on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 11:48 am
Tu rentres avec de la militia et des mercenaries et tu tues tout ceux qui sont autour de la table. Tu tues certain d’autres eux avec un bat de baseball direct sur la face. Tu tues certain d’entres eux avec un couteau enfoncé de l’oeil. Tu les regarde gigoté comme des losers pendant qu’il meurent.
Tu n’a pas vécu une vraie vie si tu n’as pas fait ça au moins in fois dans ta vie. On dirait que j’ai été une personne très violente dans mes anciennes vies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wn2XtufOAHc
Alain Jean on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 12:05 pm
Poilievre was wise enough to sabotage himself and bail out now. Only stupid don’t understand what is happening and are insisting to be a public figures: politicians, news anchor, journalist, YouTube influcenrs, Bill Mayer, Jimmy Kimmel, Colbert. The wise ones are bailing out now.
Ospery plane on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 12:22 pm
Les grosses salopette de politicians sales Canadians, ne resteront pas en vie longtemps, cela inclut le provincial, federal et municipales. On va ce les faire les grosses crisse de salopes. Poilievre l’avait compris cela.
Mes osties de grosses salopes de politicians sales.
iline wee on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 12:30 pm
Écouter sa voix, une voix de femmes. Regardez moi la crisse de chienne féminisé à JD Vance. Regardez son language corporel, les language d’un loser insécure. C’est pour ça qu’il a marié une peux brune, parce que c’est un crisse de loser. Juste en le regardant on sait qu’un ce n’est pas un vrai homme et qu’il faut le tuer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3S2EIc4144
Jeroe lomi on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 12:40 pm
I have 65 year old men in my neighborhood that are more masculine and viril then JD vance. This whole fucking take is populated with only feminized and gay man. You want to fucking throw up when you look at this shit show.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3S2EIc4144
alain leplant on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 12:45 pm
Jd Vance with his high frequency and high pitch tone voice. Look like someone that is trying to hide is female voice. If you have and updated ear sight, you will see it right away. fucking loser, This is whole table if full of fucking losers. Fucking Kennedy with his voice constantly moving from high frequency to low frequency. He must have a defecing fake voice device.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3S2EIc4144
Ulyene jeaimn on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 1:14 pm
JD vance uses some kind of device to hide his real voice. Notice he is married with a brown shit skin also.
Alain Yeline on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 1:20 pm
In fact all the voices I hear on YouTube have this kind of metallic sound to it. Look like fake digital voices. The voice is missing what I would a frequency flesh tone. Flesh is not metallic but everyone seems to speak with a metallic voice. I have received a lot of update, include eyes sight, ear sight, faster reflexes, capacity of perceive different type energy fields around me. I am loaded with update and I keep receiving new ones almost daily.
jaime lolo on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 1:22 pm
I am going to kill all of you for daring to create Canada firearms laws.
Kerine jean on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 1:25 pm
I know you using light to create false images. I can see these lights at night when it is really dark. There is some much light in the dark that it is fucking unbelievable.
Even your flesh body is covert with light.
Fucking worthless cock sucker, daring to confiscate my weapons from me.
yelen denis on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 2:11 pm
The pleasure of killing, probably better then an orgasm.
you see Kimmel here, someone that I hate deeply. Just his insecure body language is enough to make you hate him. do you know how much fun it is to kill some you hate deeply. do you know how much fun it is to see them suffer before they die. I come for Kimmel is I can. Just for sake of old memories
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okSzGyHFs_4
Jaime marcille on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 2:29 pm
Quand tu tues une salope juive, tu es entrain de frapper la salope juive, tu regardes salope juive, tu lui dis defends toi mieux crisse de salope, frapper moi plus fort câlisse de tapette juive. Pis la, tu lui en donne en ostie a la salope juive pis la tu la fais saigner ben comme il faut.
Que de plaisir de tuer une salope juive.
Rredkei Laim on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 3:36 pm
Trump tarifs are there to hide all the problems that we have: natural ressources depletion, low birth rate, earth heavily mentally retarded population and so on.
Trump has already lost of lof of weigh. When people start to figure out the real purpose of the tarifs, Trump will be killed with a heart attack to avoid some kind of revolution caused by Trump tarifs. I think they are really fucked after that.
trevale jeame on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 3:41 pm
Meeting like this are made to hide the real purpose of Trump tarifs. This is made to control the population psychologically and try to control the internal anger of the population. They never tell the truth, they always come up with something else to hide the truth such this:
HAPPENING SOON: President Trump Delivers Remarks On Investing In America
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f2GEXVGoAlU
Trump is just a pay loser following orders.
fernale heline on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 3:44 pm
If you understood the real internal psychology of the Jews, you would never associate yourself with them. In fact, you seek their total genocide.
jeremiah babe on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 3:47 pm
no savior is coming to save earth. Earth has been abandoned and will be left to die on its own. Nobody is leaving earth also.
marine jerem on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 3:57 pm
All of this is a comedy show made to entertain people and lower your aggressiveness level so you don’t revolt on destroy anything. Typical psychological manipulation trick. Make no mistke you will all die.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f2GEXVGoAlU
yelle jeantte on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 7:36 pm
I fucking told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. I fucking told you.
BREAKING Tornado Warning In Illinois – Strong Tornadoes Possible – With Live Storm Chasers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65amUjAdWGI
Chasing A Supercell Threat in Texas – Live Storm Chasers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WC3rD8R7cM
I told you to not fuck with me. I fucking told you, you have no idea who I really am and where I came from.
ulyse weling on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 7:46 pm
Ostie de salope Juive de tabernacle. J’en ai tuer tellement de salope Juive. Toujours aimer ca de voir souffrir et mourir une salope Juive. Quand tu as fini de tuer un salope Juive, tu l’as mets sur une table puis tu la démembre à la hache.
Osite crisse de Juif sale de tabernacle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=om-kOicCfzw
Un Juif en vie, c’est un juif de trop qui est vivant.
laine retres on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 8:24 pm
Look at this fucking useless whore. All women are heavily mentally retarded. Listen to her and learn how to spot heavily mentally retarded people when they speak. All women are mentally retarded.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RL5kL9N1NZU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k11PxaFcesM
regis labaume on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 8:38 pm
Gutfeld, Mayer, Colbert, Kimmel, oliver are all heavily mentally retarded people. Listen them talking, you will learn a lot about heavy mental retardation. I think it is the same person playing all these characters. They all have the same kind of boring jokes, they are all looking for attention, and they are all losers that cannot survive on their own.
alain debug on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 9:29 pm
Pierre carl Péladeau avec un plus gros nez. They are everywhere, it is fucking unbelievable.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/0RPsdRU6wn0
Using polianate on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 10:20 pm
2:55 Jordan Peterson et Mark Carney. Peterson plays a lot of characters including in movie.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGcsi8h5WyQ
I told you, they are everywhere.
Alain peterson on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 10:26 pm
Carney et Peterson with a bigger nose.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/k3pPAta4eT4
It is fucking endless.
alain preslye on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 11:01 pm
3:31 typical sexual dominatrix clothing. Typical stance with her leg open for vaginal worshipping from a submissive male.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yS2rM_r50XY
I can wait to leave planet earth.
Marile Monroe on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 11:19 pm
5:42 3 female wearing the sexual dominatrix clothing. It is all over the fucking place on YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2ntJ8drFEs
ulye denis on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 11:27 pm
Colbert, Gutfeld and Mayer. 3 effeminate, short and skinny men that are not funny and looking for attention and validation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5YKJNJvgxs
They are basically loser and should have been killed a long time ago.
jaune kabek on Wed, 30th Apr 2025 11:31 pm
They were able somehow to replace masculine with femineity. There is no such thing as a masculine men, only effeminate men.
There is no way a civilization that heavily relied on trade workers can keep survive when all the masculine men have been replaced with effeminate losers.
yellen lamire on Thu, 1st May 2025 12:11 am
Here you go I have made a comment about that. How they trained the baby boomer to be good obedient slave. Also mention that other generation after were not blind and have rebelled against it. We remember the past and rebelled.
The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) announced a Youth Guarantee Scheme in November, aimed at giving all 18- to 21-year-olds access to training, an apprenticeship, or support to find work, as part of a broader strategy aimed at tackling worklessness and ill health in the wider population.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/workless-lost-generation-suffering-mental-health-issues-report
I told you that you lost the West around 1995 when mass migration was started. We are still lucky that electrical grid is holding up that well.
rwgine qwie on Thu, 1st May 2025 12:13 am
I told you, they are really fucked. It is just a matter of time before the potable water system and electrical grid go down permanently.