Peak Oil is You
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Page added on August 30, 2013
The spectre of peak oil still looms over us
The Syrian conflict is full of complicating factors, but oil isn’t one of them. Syria accounts for less than half of one per cent of global production, most of which is consumed domestically. That said, Iran and Saudi Arabia stand on opposite sides of Syria’s civil war – and of the world’s most important oil and gas shipping lane. Fears of a wider regional conflict are therefore putting upward pressure on energy prices.
Still, at least we don’t have to worry about ‘peak oil’ anymore. Though we may face serious threats to security of supply, fears of an imminent decline in the world’s capacity to produce oil are subsiding.
In an article for IEEE Spectrum, Bill Sweet says that this new confidence has been engendered by technological advances:
- “A recent report from analysts at Lux Research, ‘Evaluating New EOR [Enhanced Oil Recovery] Technologies in Oil Industry Mega-projects,’ proposes that by means of EOR, the industry may be able to tap up to 10.2 trillion barrels of unconventional oil, over and above 1.4 to 1.6 trillion barrels of conventional oil…
- “[Michael] Klare, a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College in Massachusetts, seems to be in general accord with Lux’s view that the age of oil is far from over. Writing in the Huffington Post, the left-liberal online publication, Klare said that ‘humanity is not entering a period that will be dominated by renewables. Instead, it is pioneering the third great carbon era, The Age of Unconventional Oil and Gas.’”
This is a crucial point that many people miss in the debate over peak oil. No one doubts the fact that most of the world’s oil remains in the ground. But the question that matters is whether we can continue to extract it at a reasonable price. The true limiting factor in the most credible peak oil scenario is not so much our capacity to produce oil as our capacity to pay for it:
11 Comments on "The spectre of peak oil still looms over us"
Arthur on Fri, 30th Aug 2013 11:49 am
Good observations. It is likely that the price of fossil, not its depletion, is going to force the world into an energy transition.
Airwicky on Fri, 30th Aug 2013 12:05 pm
It’s because of the depletion of “sweet” crude the price is going up. What are you talking about Arthur?
bobinget on Fri, 30th Aug 2013 2:27 pm
It’s BOTH. We’ve seen it dozens of times on these pages, “all the low hanging fruit is gone” nevertheless we keep looking under leaves for more and go get tall ladders.
One hundred million$ for ultra deep water wells is commonplace and despite the latest tech these wells often come-up lacking commercial viability. Once it’s determined an ultra deep well is a winner, more big bucks need be raised (borrowed) for some way to transport that crude and gasses to refineries.
These highly specialized vessels can cost one hundred times drilling expense. Mind you, off shore is classified as ‘conventional’ oil. Next time you find yourself looking up at a contrail think of a 127 mm o/d pipe reaching up that high.
keith on Fri, 30th Aug 2013 3:02 pm
It was the gushing low hanging fruit which gave us our current civilization, so it is the depletion of the low hanging fruit which will determine our future. All other oil should not be considered.
bobinget on Fri, 30th Aug 2013 3:38 pm
The current tight oil boom goes on apace, lulling a public that has known only thus into a state of bliss.
After-all have not Europeans been paying twice that of fuels now demanded of us? (few understand real costs of burning fossil fuels, or European tax system)
As employment picks up forcing inflation higher,
having already become accustomed to three, four dollar gasoline five buck gas will be commonplace.
Tight oil will eventually become ‘conventional’ oil.
There are already over 120,000 stripper wells in our nation. I expect a thousand tight oil and gas wells a year to join that group beginning 2015.
There was a time when US auto makers fought hard against milage standards. Today, because they know, we know, oil is going higher, car guys are not only producing ICE 500 HP zero to 60 in 4.4 seconds they are also all making and selling highbred both plug in and not. Last week we imported over eight million barrels of crude every single day. As long as people are willing to pay, expect that number to get larger.
Arthur on Fri, 30th Aug 2013 3:39 pm
“Airwicky on Fri, 30th Aug 2013 12:05 pm It’s because of the depletion of “sweet” crude the price is going up. What are you talking about Arthur?”
In all likelyhood there is still the fossil equivalent of many trillions of barrel of oil left in the crust that will never deplete, not in a long shot, but will provide for a prolonged plateau or slowly declining volumes that could last several decades, albeit against high but affordable prices, providing a workable energy transition path.
The Good Lord loves us after all 😉
GregT on Fri, 30th Aug 2013 3:40 pm
Cheap, easy, conventional oil has peaked. As others have mentioned, we are now scraping the bottom of the barrel for the dregs.
Our societies were ‘designed’ on 30 dollar a barrel oil, not the 110 dollar a barrel stuff. The result is austerity, quantatative easing, civil unrest, food insecurity, and mountains of debt.
There will be no energy transition, because we have nothing that we can transition to, that will replace what oil does for us in modern industrial society. Modern industrial society will eventually come to a grinding halt.
The question remains; Will we continue to burn the dregs, and cause catastrophic runaway climate change, or will we voluntarily return to a sustainable way of living?
So far it would appear that we are choosing the former. Our future on this planet does not look bright.
Bigmouth on Fri, 30th Aug 2013 5:45 pm
10-15 years ago, I remember gas going over $1/gal. It was kind of interesting and I enjoyed the day I filled the tank at $1/gal.
Then in 2008 when gas hit $5/gal and I filled my tank and it cost me over $100, I was not so thrilled.
Now gas rarely goes below $4/gal where I live. I am careful where I drive and make decisions daily about whether it is worth it to spend $1 on gas or paying $1 more for something close.
When gas hits $10/gal, I will be taking the bus. I do not understand how someone who does not make good money spends $4/gal.
$10 is coming.
actioncjackson on Fri, 30th Aug 2013 8:34 pm
I’ll ask the question even though many of you already know the answer. Why is the US acting so desperate, at home and abroad, if the golden age of energy is about to be bestowed upon us? The answer is that the exact opposite is true. Energy is becoming more scarce. The Middle East represents a sizable portion of US imports. The US will do anything to maintain and increase control over the region, they have no other choice.
LT on Fri, 30th Aug 2013 10:55 pm
I still remember vividly:
Year 1982: 1 Gallon of gasoline = US$0.66 (66 cents) in Oakland, California.
Year 2000-2001: 1 Gallon of Gasoline = US$1.00 in Alhambra/Monterey Park, California.
So, I would call the period 1982-2001 the Golden Age of oil. And we will never see it again. It is once in an eon. I would characterize this period as peak oil period of its near all time maximum production and all time lowest price.
So,…only human muscle power is withstanding!
BillT on Sat, 31st Aug 2013 12:19 am
The economy is going to take out oil use long before it is all gone. $100 oil is killing the world economy. What will $200 oil do?