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The Bumpy Road Down, Part 3

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In the last post in this series I talked about the next financial crash and how it may well be serious enough to spread into the non-financial sectors of the economy and effect supply chains and critical systems in ways that we did not see in the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-08. Systems that most of us depend on for the necessities of life may fail and many kollapsniks see this leading immediately and inevitably to a hard, fast and permanent crash of industrial civilization.

I disagree, seeing this as just one more bump on the road down, the cyclic pattern of crash and partial recovery that I believe will characterize the rest of the age of scarcity.

To understand why I hold this opinion, I said we need to do a couple of things:

1) take a systems dynamic approach to the events we are talking about. Specifically, we need to look at what happens when overshoot occurs in nature, in systems like the one we inhabit. Which is, after all, a subset of the ecosphere. Overshoot is a common enough phenomenon and usually works in fairly predictable ways.

2) look at the sort of things governments, communities and individuals can do to limit the damage of a financial crash and its spread to other critical systems.

Today we are going to do that.

(Note: all three of the graphs below are smoothed out, idealized and imprecise representations of the processes they illustrate. The point is to allow me to make some points visually. I hope not to get into much in the way of quibbling over minor details, of which no doubt a few are missing, inaccurate or outright wrong.)

So, first, let’s take a look at how overshoot works. Take moment or two with your favourite search engine and you will find a graph that looks something like this:

1) typical overshoot situation with constant carrying capacity

The green line shows the behaviour over time of the population of a species which finds itself initially at a level well below the carrying capacity of its environment (the dashed blue line). Because that environment provides lots of whatever the species need to grow, it does grow. This tendency to grow in response to favourable conditions seems to be an inhernet property of life. As is always the case, this is exponential growth—it starts out slowly but eventually reaches a point where it takes off and quickly exceeds the carrying capacity of the environment.

What happens then is interesting, especially since we currently find ourselves in just such a situation. You get some oscillation of the species population, above and below the carrying capacity, until it finally settles out somewhat below the carrying capacity.

First, let’s be clear that it is possible to exceed carrying capacity in the short run, at the cost of damaging the environment and reducing its capacity—overpopulation has a negative effect on that capacity. There is also some time delay built in to the effect of population growth, as newly born individuals add relatively little to the species impact on the environment compared to what they will add once they have grown up. The negative feedback and the time delay result in the oscillation shown in the graph.

Of course, the straight line representing carrying capacity would actually have some peaks and valleys, corresponding to how the environment responds to the stress of overpopulation and how it recovers when the population falls. If we idealized both the blue and green lines into something like a sine wave, we would see that the variation in the carrying capacity leads the variation in the population by about 90 degrees.

The red line, by the way, represents a fast and permanent collapse. In order for this to happen the carrying capacity has to fall all the way down to basically nothing. This can happen for a variety of reasons, but overshoot isn’t one of them, because as soon as the population falls off below the carrying capacity, the stress on the environment is relieved and it begins to recover.

There is, in fact, no such thing as a “balance of nature” and it is by no means inevitable that the oscillations damp out and the population settles down just below the carrying capacity. In many cases what we actually get is the situation in the next graph, where populations oscillate on an ongoing basis.

2) continual oscillation of predator and prey populations such as foxes and rabbits

You might think that the population of rabbits and foxes in an ecosystem would level out at steady values, but that is not in fact what is observed.

If we start at a moment when there are relatively few of each species, we see that the population of rabbits (the prey, dashed blue line) grows rapidly. It is well below the carrying capacity of the ecosystem for rabbits and there are relatively few foxes (the predators, green line). But the increasing number of rabbits make hunting easier for the foxes, and their population starts to increase too. Eventually there are enough foxes to overhunt the rabbits, resulting in a crash in the rabbit population. This is followed by a crash in the fox population, since there are no longer enough rabbits to support it. This brings us back to where we started and the cycle carries on.

The reason the cycle can carry on indefinitely is that the foxes limit the rabbit population so that it never exceeds the carrying capacity of the ecosystem for rabbits—the plants the rabbits are eating never get over grazed.

The situation for the human population of this planet is, as you might expect, more complex.

The impact (I) that the human population has on our environment is determined not just by the size of that population (P), but also by the level of affluence (A) we are living at and effectiveness of the technology (T) we are using to maintain that affluence.

This gives us the famous equation, I=PAT. Since I am going to be using the term “T” in another equation shortly, I’ll change this to I=PAD, where “D” stands for decoupling. Decoupling is the use of technology to produce affluence at a lower cost to thge environment and it is a number between 0 and 1, with 0 being the goal we would aim for, eliminating our impact altogether. In fact it is proving so difficult to get decoupling anywhere near zero that it is very unlikely to be the solution to our problems.

Carrying capacity (C) also works somewhat differently for human populations.

We can increase the size (S) of our environment by expanding into new areas of the world and habitats previously occupied by other species or by “indigenous” humans.

We can tap into forms of energy (E) beyond just food. For somewhere between two and three million years we’ve been using fire for landscaping, for cooking our food and for heating our shelters. In each case we were using the energy in burning biomass to increase the carrying capacity of our environment, increase the value of our food, and/or expand the range of environments that we can live in. For the last few hundred years we’ve been using the energy of fossil fuels to radically increase the carrying capacity of our environment in many seemingly clever ways.

Since whatever method we use to acquire energy consumes energy in the process, it’s actually the energy that is left over, available for use (the surplus energy) that’s important. This is best expressed as “Energy Returned on Energy Invested”, EROEI. This is a dimensionless number and the larger it is, the more surplus energy. When the EROEI is equal to one, the process is just breaking even and there is no point in doing it—we want a much higher EROEI.

Hunter-gather and pre-industrial agricultural societies managed average EROEI’s in the high single digits at best. Industrial societies based on fossil fuels in the twentieth century had EROEI’s many times that high, which made possible high levels of growth and the development and use of technologies which had previously been completely out of reach. Today the average global EROEI is around 11.

Which brings us to our use of tools and technology (T). With just Neolithic technology (fire, stone tools, weaving, tanning, pottery, boats, agriculture) we spread over the whole planet except for the Antarctic, occupying and thriving in environments very different from the ones where we evolved. Since the Renaissance, the Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolution our use of technology has exploded. And not just material technology, but financial, organizational and information technologies as well. All of which has enabled both our population and affluence to grow at heretofore unprecedented rates.

So, the carrying capacity of this planet for the human race can be represented by the equation C=SET. Clearly, I (Impact) must be less than C (carrying capacity) or we are in overshoot. And since sometime in the late 1970s we have indeed been in overshoot. Currently the level of overshoot is around 60%. That is, our impact on the environment is 1.6 times what can be sustained on an ongoing basis.

3) oscillating overshoot with declining carrying capacity

From left side of this graph to point “a” we see the long and very slow growth of the human population before the discovery of the New World. After point “a” the carrying capacity began to increase significantly as the size of our environment effectively took a large jump with the European settlement of the New World, as the use of fossil fuels greatly increased the amount of surplus energy available and as we developed numerous new technologies to use that energy. Human impact increased with the carrying capacity, as our population grew and affluence increased.

The growth of carrying capacity continued until the last quarter of the twentieth century, point “b”, when depletion of fossil fuels and reduction of their EROEI, diminishing returns on technological innovation and stress on the environment from human activities started to reduce the carrying capacity.

Human impact has continued to grow since then, and is now so far above carrying capacity that one has to expect a crash in the near future, point “c”. As I said in my last post, this is likely to start with a financial crash. The financial sector of the economy, since it deals largely with non-material things that don’t have much inertia, can change very quickly. It is currently under a lot of strain from huge amounts of risky debt. I favour a scenario where a spike in the price of oil, brought about as the current surplus of oil bottoms out, sets off a currency crash in one of more countries, leading to a wave of bankruptcies and governments defaulting on their debts. After point “c” human impact will start to decrease rapidly, primarily due to the effect of the financial crash on affluence.

Note that I have again included a red line (and a light blue line), which represent a fast and permanent crash of both carrying capacity and population. This is possible and some would argue that climate change and ocean acidification (among other things) may be damaging the environment enough to make it the most likely outcome. I don’t think so. The ecosphere is amazingly resilient, once human impact is reduced. People have gotten the wrong impression about this because we have been playing the silly game of upping our impact and then wondering why the situation keeps gets worse, as if it wasn’t our fault.

To the right is a little chart that contains some shocking information. The top 20% of the human population (in terms of affluence) is responsible for 76.6% of our impact. A financial crash will be very hard on those top 20% and in the process will drastically reduce human impact. Sadly, myself and most of my readers are in that top 20%.

Referring back to diagram 3, I expect that at point “d”, where “I” is finally less than “C”, the carrying capacity will begin to recover, and a while later at point “e”, human impact will begin to increase once again as well.

Remember also that carrying capacity is defined by C=SET, and there is much that humanity can do to change the value of “T” in that equation. I am by no means saying that we will find a “solution” to our problems based on material technology. What I mean is that a major factor in the big decrease in carrying capacity during the upcoming crash will be the failure of our financial and organizational technology to cope with the situation. And there is a lot we can do to reorganize our financial, economic and political systems to work better under the new conditions. Once we are forced to do it. So I do expect there will be a recovery after this crash.

It is very likely that during the crash the financial chaos will spread to the rest of the economy and that there will be some reduction in the growth rate of our population as the support structures provide by industrial civilization fail completely in some parts of the world. But it seems likely that human population will continue to grow until it once again outstrips carrying capacity, at point “f”. And then at point “g” we will have another crash. I suspect depletion of fossil fuels, water for irrigation and phosphorous for fertilizer, and the effects of climate change will lead to a collapse of agriculture in many parts of the world. Famine and epidemics will at that point start to rapidly reduce our population and eventually reduce it back below a once more reduced carrying capacity (point “h”) and another recovery will begin (point “i”).

Beyond point “i” it is hard to say much about exact details or how many more crashes will take place. But the trend of continued oscillation with decreases in both carrying capacity and human impact will continue. The downward trend is because our current system relies on non-renewable resources that we are using up. That trend will continue until our impact can be sustained solely by renewable resources. Along the way we will go through some very hard times (point “i” and subsequent valleys in the green line) because of the damage done to the planet in the process. But eventually, with our impact drastically reduced, the ecosystems will recover. I expect that at this point we will have retained some of our technology and because of this the overall carrying capacity and our population/impact will settle out a bit above what it was in pre-industrial times.

One further thing I want to emphasize is how uneven this whole process will be. Yes it is likely that the impending financial crash, because it involves systems that are highly interconnected and global in scale, will be felt to some extent over the whole planet. But the degree to which the financial chaos spreads to the rest of the economy will vary greatly from place to place. And subsequent crashes, once the high degree of global interconnection has been broken, will most likely occur at different times in different places.

Wherever people are not completely dependent on global supply chains, the effects will be less severe. To the extent that they are not ravaged by climate change, some parts of the developing world where subsistence agriculture is practiced may continue on with little change. Unfortunately many areas will suffer the ravages of climate change—droughts, flooding and heat waves. Many countries (particularly in Africa and the Middle East) do not produce enough food for their own populations. With supply chains broken and agriculture struggling everywhere, these areas will find it difficult to continue importing the food they rely on. Supplies of energy and water will also prove problematical.

I am well aware that all these graphs and explanations do not constitute a proof of my assertions about the bumpy road down. But I hope I have succeeded in making what I’m trying to say much clearer. It’s up to you to decide if there is anything to it or not, now that you know what “it” is.

The other area I wanted to touch on today is the sort of things governments, communities and individuals can do to limit the damage when a financial crash spreads to other critical systems.

As the financial crash starts to gain momentum, governments will (to whatever extent they can) use the same tools as they did in 2008 to get things under control— loans and bailouts for faltering businesses, and keeping interest rates very low. It also seems likely that, as the situation worsens, “bail-ins” will be used as well, where depositors are required to accept discounts on their deposits to reduce the pressure on failing banks. And “haircuts” where bond holders have to accept discounts on the value of those bonds in order to reduce the pressure on the governments that issued them.

These efforts will have mixed results and the crash will no doubt spread to the non-financial sectors of the economy. Many governments will try switching failing critical systems over to a direct command “martial law” economy. This will be done with varying degrees of skill (or ineptitude as the case may be) and varying degrees of co-operation from their citizens. Vital materials which are in short supply due to supply chain and production breakdowns will be placed under government control and rationed (food, energy—especially diesel fuel, water treatment and medical supplies), and attempts will be made to patch supply chains and production facilities back together with whatever comes to hand.

I have no doubt that this can be made to work, at least to some extent. It does require convincing the public that it is necessary and that it is being done fairly—applied equally to the rich and powerful as it is to the poor and weak. And inevitably there will be thriving black markets.

Governments that already operate some of these systems directly will be better prepared and experience greater success. System that have been contracted out to the lowest bidder—companies that are primarily responsible to their stock holders rather than their customers—may fail in a variety of ghastly ways.

On the other hand, I think there will also be quite a bit of quiet heroism on the part of companies and individuals in critical industries whose job it is to keep things working. These folks are for the most part competent and highly motivated, and their efforts will be more successful than you might think.

Some governments will be so successful that their citizens may hardly be aware that anything is going on. In other countries, people will be reduced to relying almost entirely on what can be done locally, with locally available resources. Right wing capitalist governments whose primary obligation is to the rich and power will begin to practice wholesale abandonment of the poor and unfortunate.

There are also things that can be done by local communities, families and individuals to be more self sufficient—to be able to carry on during those periods when industrial society fails to supply the necessities. Increasing local inventories in order to be more resilient in response to supply chain failures would be a good beginning. But just being clear about what the necessities are and not wasting resources try to maintain luxuries will be one of the biggest challenges. The first step is realizing that much of what we consider necessary is, in fact, not.

So, as I’ve already said, I’m expecting a recovery, or rather a series of recoveries after a series of crashes. These crises are going to cause some changes in the way things work, resulting in a very different world. We’ll have a look at the trends that will lead to that new world in my next post.

If Blogger’s statistics and Google Analytics are right, a lot of people are reading this blog on mobile devices. I’d be interested to hear how the graphics in this post worked on those devices.

Doomstead Diner by Irvine Mills

29 Comments on "The Bumpy Road Down, Part 3"

  1. iamwhoiamifyouknowwhatimean on Thu, 25th Jan 2018 7:37 pm 

    So the next downturn will just be another rinse and repeat not much different than 08? Good luck with that. All that’s really left for the CB’s is QE4, a hand out to the masses that would initiate hyper-inflation as vendors would lose faith in the non-precious-metals-backed greenback.

  2. anon on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 2:05 am 

    so, the essence of this fellow’s argument is that we should trust benevolent ‘left wing’ gonvernments as the only entities capable of ‘saving’ us from a messy collapse. That’s just doubling down on all the aspects of this civilization that are irretrievably broken!
    What really needs to be done is total dismantling of these huge power structures and a return to much more local, small scale (and much more technologically primitive) structures and people doing things for themselves.. and this will still be inescapably paired with decades of hunger, poverty, and population collapse.
    In the future nobody will care one bit about ‘left’ or ‘right’, both fantasy constructs of this broken industrial civilization. the author would do well to open his own eyes and get past this hang-up.

  3. Mad Kat on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 2:16 am 

    An optimist to the core. Bumpy but … not so bad … IF ONLY. Not going to happen that way, I’m afraid. “… things that can be done by local communities, families and individuals to be more self sufficient—to be able to carry on during those periods when industrial society fails to supply the necessities” Too late or Westerners. Too late for unskilled, uneducated, Americans except in isolated pockets. Not one in a thousand know how to grow a garden or have space for one. Ditto for other survival skills. Tens of millions will not even survive the end of life saving drugs. Death will be a daily occurrence everywhere in the US /and burials will be a sheet and a hole somewhere, not a funeral home event.

    Given the timeline in his graph from Columbus (a) to the end, I would guess that the final crash is centuries away. If the graph is not proportionate, then it is pretty lines.

    The world, as a whole, will hit bottom in the next 10 years. Maybe the next five, or less. It is even possible this year if the cliff is the future and not the bumpy road. For some, the bottom will be disastrous. For many it will be an inconvenience. You decide who and where I am talking about. lol

  4. Davy on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 4:18 am 

    “Death will be a daily occurrence everywhere in the US /and burials will be a sheet and a hole somewhere, not a funeral home event.”

    The Philippines will need to go from 100MIL to a long term carrying capacity of around 10MIL. I think you will have plenty of burials too mad kat including your own. The chances of a 75 year old surviving that are slim.

  5. Davy on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 4:23 am 

    “In the future nobody will care one bit about ‘left’ or ‘right’, both fantasy constructs of this broken industrial civilization.”

    Probably true because it is unclear whether liberal democracy and market based capitalism will survive. They have made the luxury of caring about left and right a reality along with cheap energy slaves. The future is likely medieval or even tribal but there may be a journey to getting there. It is possible many of us won’t see it.

  6. Mad Kat on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 5:26 am 

    Davy, you are delusional. You have ZERO knowledge of the Ps ability to do anything. You are just jealous because your ass is stuck on the dying empire’s home turf and you are being turned into slaves to TPTB.

    You live in the land of drugs and guns. The coming events are already being previewed today with the mass shootings, skyrocketing drug use and suicides. Americans cannot handle stress or reality. They have few, if any survival skills and a dumbed down education. All negatives.

    As for my chances here: I will likely be around a lot longer than you will be if the SHTF. I have a support system in place. My age is not a problem. I need no meds. I am healthier than you are. So, don’t wet your pants dreaming of my demise. It is a long way off. Probably at least 10-15 years or more. I doubt that you can say the same.

  7. Dredd on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 5:30 am 

    Systems that most of us depend on for the necessities of life may fail and many kollapsniks see this leading immediately and inevitably to a hard, fast and permanent crash of industrial civilization.” – Irvinenik Millsnik

    Straw man.

    Economics does not impact upon the laws of physics … it is the other way around (You Are Here – 6).

  8. Davy on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 5:37 am 

    “Davy, you are delusional. You have ZERO knowledge of the Ps ability to do anything.”
    Do the math dumbass or does your denial get in the way:

    “As for my chances here: I will likely be around a lot longer than you will be if the SHTF. Probably at least 10-15 years or more. I doubt that you can say the same.”
    Mad kat, get out of your denial of old age and death. It is near for you. Maybe some of you personality issues we see in your comments will disappear.

  9. Darrell Cloud on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 12:26 pm 

    This argument over looks the fragility present in our system and the impact of Liebig’s Law of the Minimum and the empirical evidence of Seneca’s Cliff.

  10. Mad Kat on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 5:31 pm 

    Davy, go back to your rant of Fri, 26th Jan 2018 4:18 am above and see that it was YOU who mentioned death and my age first. YOU are the one who ALWAYS starts the debate with negatives about your opponent, not the facts presented. Lack of rebuttal means that you should not debate.

    You have not proved one of your points in a long time, with actual references. Just immature put-downs and bullshit. Prove me wrong.

    “You live in the land of drugs and guns. The coming events are already being previewed today with the mass shootings, skyrocketing drug use and suicides. Americans cannot handle stress or reality. They have few, if any survival skills and a dumbed down education. All negatives.”

  11. MASTERMIND on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 5:40 pm 


    I just posted two links to the world bank for references. And Davy is saying they are stupid “Empty Links”…I dont even understand what that means unless the website is down for some reason..He just makes shit up out of left field! I think his mind is collapsing faster than the US society and economy!

  12. Davy on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 5:47 pm 

    “YOU are the one who ALWAYS starts the debate with negatives about your opponent, not the facts presented. Lack of rebuttal means that you should not debate.”
    Mad kat, I made a promise to you I would neuter your bad behavior unless you moderated. I have kept my promise. I am reliable. If this causes you pain then great.

  13. Mad Kat on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 9:15 pm 

    The author proves my point that all places will not be equal when the SHTF:

    “But the degree to which the financial chaos spreads to the rest of the economy will vary greatly from place to place. …

    Wherever people are not completely dependent on global supply chains, the effects will be less severe. To the extent that they are not ravaged by climate change, some parts of the developing world where subsistence agriculture is practiced may continue on with little change”

    Subsistence farming is normal in the Ps. Most everyone has a garden and, even in the city, I see veggies growing in any plot of land available. Even on construction sites. Even more so out in the countryside.

    Climate change will not affect the Ps for a long time. Surrounded by the Pacific and South China Sea, the air temps are moderated by the ocean temps. The winds are moisture laden so rain will continue. No part of the Ps is more than 70 miles (120km) From an ocean. No large land mass that can suffer desertification like the US, China, Australia, etc. Even temps all year round. Multiple growing seasons. Etc. A good place to be hen the SHTF. Check out this website for proof.,-2.65,430

    The wind at the 250 mark is the Jet Streams. Check them out. They never come into the Ps. Usually not even close. Play with the variables at the “Earth” tag at the bottom left and see what is happening in your area. A click on your spot will give you local conditions. Enjoy!

  14. Mad Kat on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 9:18 pm 

    Davy, your ‘promises’ are to satisfy your ego, not my posts. Your arrogance requires you to try to dominate others. Sorry. It doesn’t work on me. You are a sick joke.

    Maybe you can beat your kids or wife, if you have one, but not someone your better 8,000 miles away. Grow up and get a life. Not the one your family bought for you. LMAO

  15. MASTERMIND on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 9:20 pm 


    I would take what this dude says with a huge grain of salt. He is an old time idiot! Trust me us younger folks have higher IQ’S since IQ has raised a lot since you were born. known as the Flynn Effect! This dude just wants to believe there will be “No Chaos” etc…He is dead wrong!

  16. MASTERMIND on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 9:26 pm 

    Over the last year about 8k retail stores, AT&T, IBM, Microsoft, Capital One, Kleenex, Toys R US, Comcast, Wal Mart, Sam’s Club, Lowes, Nike, Siemens, CSX, Lord and Taylor, Carrier, GE, Ford, GM, Lego, Sears, Macy’s, K-Mart, Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Radio Shack, Yahoo, Hershey, Under Armor, Applebee’s, I-Hop, Kellogg, Subway, Outback, Go Pro, National Geographic, ESPN, State Farm, Snap, Dole’s, DuPont, Northrop Grumman, Hess, Firefox, Coca Cola, Boeing, Westinghouse, Dunkin Donuts, Allergan, Fidelity, all laying off thousands of workers and closing thousands of stores..ur economic collapse isn’t going to happen all of sudden one day that every business goes under. It’s going to be a process over time. And I think you can see when you put the pieces into perspective together; they are all reasonably connected to our collapse.

  17. Mad Kat on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 10:11 pm 

    He may be what you say, MM, but his ideas about the unevenness of collapse is spot on. He seems to have a grasp of the world outside the US better than most. I don’t buy into his bumpy road down over decades. It will probably be a quick series of sharp drops to the bottom. No time to change anything until it is too late. We shall see.

  18. MASTERMIND on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 10:12 pm 

    Nobel Prize-winning Economist Robert Shiller, The stock market today is similar to the market in 1928

  19. Mad Kat on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 10:24 pm 

    Sorry US IQs are not getting higher, MM. You can change tests and get any IQ you want to prove. It is all in who and what you ask. Like public opinion polls. Visible evidence is just the opposite. The dumbing down of Americans has been ongoing for decades. Today’s HS grads would not make it to the 8th grade when I went to school. Perspective. Always perspective.

    How many of these questions can YOU answer without references? (1895)

    Or this one: (1912)

    IQ is relative to the situation. Tests change to fit the tester’s goals. Not uniform across places and times. I’m sure the IQ test I took was retired decades ago.

  20. Mad Kat on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 10:30 pm 

    MM, the Nobel Prize is bullshit. They gave the worst war mongering US president (“O”) the Nobel Peace Prize! That should prove that it is ALL political/financially motivated. And, economists are frauds that read chicken guts to predict the future and then are still wrong.

  21. MASTERMIND on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 10:46 pm 


    The reason IQ has been increasing is because the human brain size has been growing larger over time. You don’t even have a college degree and worked as a construction worker. No offense but I dont think you have any idea about what you are talking about. And not all Nobel Prizes are equal. The peace prize is just a stupid one. The rest are very worthwhile. But you are an anti intellectual carpenter just like the average Trump voter!

  22. MASTERMIND on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 10:48 pm 


    The World Bank and IMF and OECD veteran Economist has issued the exact same warnings recently. Its because the stock markets price vs earnings is so over valued. The only two times its ever been this over valued was the dot com bubble in 2000. And the 1929 crash. So another crash is pretty much guaranteed. Its just hard to predict exactly when it will happen.

  23. MASTERMIND on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 10:48 pm 

    Perfect storm’: Global financial system showing danger signs, says senior OECD economist

    Financial markets at risk from bubble, IMF warns

  24. MASTERMIND on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 10:51 pm 


    Do you always attack the messenger and ignore the message? If you would have actually read that article you would have realized he makes excellent reasons for why he is saying that. But you didnt you just attacked his credibility…Because you are jealous of others who are smarter!

    What happened to Bring it on? Now you are turning into Greg! You say you are prepared and then the alarm goes off and you deny the alarm is ringing! LOL Just proves you know deep down when the markets crash its game over for you.

  25. MASTERMIND on Fri, 26th Jan 2018 11:39 pm 

    Many important indicators are already on red

    CAPE has been above current levels only in 1929 and 2007-2009 (the dotcom bubble)
    GDP is exceeding potential GDP.
    The Ratio of Total Market Cap to US GDP is in 1999-2000 crash levels.
    This is getting there:yield curve inversion getting closer.

    Of course, timing of the correction is impossible. This can continue next five years ore there can be correction tomorrow.

  26. Mad Kat on Sat, 27th Jan 2018 1:33 am 

    No, he assumes he has the answers, but it is obvious that he does not. He is just guessing as are most pushers of unicorn fairy tale possibilities of Kumbaya futures where we have the time and opportunity to change things. We do not. It would take generations, which he also proposes that we have. Bullshit!

    As for the market crashing, I have, nor never had, any interest/investment in the Stock Market Casino. I’m still waiting for the crash. I will celebrate when it happens because it will bring the warmongering US to it’s knees. Today would be just fine with me.

  27. Mad Kat on Sat, 27th Jan 2018 1:40 am 

    TPTB are preparing Americans for war on their home turf:

    “USAF Begins Massive GPS Blackouts In The Western US During Largest Ever Air War Drill”

    “If there is a concrete reason why the Department of Defense is quietly preparing a massive air war drill in Nevada now, while simultaneously forcing a gigantic GPS blackout for the Western part of the United States, it has not been disclosed aside from the obvious, of course.”

    False nuclear alert in Hawaii… and now…

  28. MASTERMIND on Sat, 27th Jan 2018 2:48 am 


    Keep spreading Russian propaganda! You are in a deep state of paranoia! Next you will be looking out your window for aliens and searching for big foot! They run military drills all the damn time. And the paranoids are always squealing they are set ups for false flags. Trust me if they were going to do a false flag zerohedge would be the last place to find out!

  29. Mad Kat on Sat, 27th Jan 2018 3:02 am 

    MM. does my spreading the truth mean anything to your brainwashed self? You are so deluded by the US MSM that you believe anything they post and deny anything outside the US propaganda mill’s bullshit.

    If you just don’t want to believe that the US powers that be would kill innocent Americans at home … try 9/11/2001.

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