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Robert Rapier: Lessons From a Failed Prediction

General Ideas

Why Make Predictions?

While there are actually other stories unfolding in the world of energy, you would never know that by my inbox. Most of the correspondence I have received in the past week is still related to oil prices, particularly following the recent huge rally in crude futures. A few readers also wanted to make sure that I noticed that one of my 2015 predictions had fallen last week. I will address that in today’s column.

For background, each year in January I make predictions for the upcoming year, and I provide the context for those predictions. (See My 2015 Energy Predictions). I have been doing this for several years, and at the end of each year I grade my predictions. As I have stated on many occasions, context around a prediction can be more important than the prediction itself. When I grade the predictions, I will talk about the context when I made each prediction, and the reasons the predictions turned out to be right or wrong.

But one reader asked why I would even attempt to make predictions given such uncertain conditions. I make predictions to set up a narrative that describes what I see unfolding in the energy sector, incorporating as much data as I can into making each prediction. While this is not an investment column, I am aware that some readers use it for investment advice. So without overtly recommending investments, I generally try to make predictions that are actionable. I will give 2 examples of that today, one of which is the prediction that failed last week.

Most of the predictions I make will require the full year’s worth of data to determine whether they are accurate. For example, one of my predictions this year was “The average Henry Hub spot price for natural gas will be below $3.50/MMBtu in 2015.” While that prediction is on track to be correct, we will need to be at or near the end of the year to be certain. A big price swing between now and the end of the year could change the result. This was the case with my 2014 prediction that the average closing price of WTI would be lower than in 2013. That prediction was trending incorrect until the 2nd half of the year when the price dropped so sharply.

An Oil Price Prediction Falls

I made two 2015 predictions, however, that could be proven right or wrong during the course of the year. One of those predictions was “The closing price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude will not fall below $40/bbl in 2015.” As we know, WTI did close below $40/bbl last week, making this the first of my 2015 predictions to fail.

I began to get emails from people almost immediately after it happened. Some of them gloated “Ha! You aren’t so smart now, are you?” It was mostly the crowd predicting $20 oil who claimed that this proves that they know more about the oil market than I do. Judging from the action in the oil market the past 4 sessions, they may have gloated too soon. If they were betting on further price drops they may have suffered steep losses as the price of oil swung hard in the opposite direction.

Let’s address first things first. Yes, that prediction was wrong. When I tally up the score at the end of the year, that one goes into the “Wrong” bucket. In fact, at this point it looks like at least 3 of my 6 predictions will be wrong because they were strongly dependent upon the price of oil. Unless the price of WTI spends the rest of the year significantly higher than it is now, 3 predictions will fall on that basis.

If you care about the prediction more than the context, then you can stop reading right here and say “The prediction was wrong. End of story.” If you care about context, then what follows is an explanation of why I believe the narrative I used to support this prediction still has value.

A Useful Narrative?

A prediction can be wrong, and the context still correct and actionable. Why did I choose $40 as my line in the sand? The exact number was arbitrary. I tried to factor in supply, demand, and investor psychology. The higher I made the floor, the more aggressive the prediction. But the context for the prediction was “In today’s world, $40 is so ridiculously cheap for crude that I don’t think we will get there.” When I made the prediction, I wrote:

Of all the predictions I am making, this is the one with the greatest potential for being proven wrong the quickest. We aren’t all that far from $40/bbl today, and we could get there with 3 or 4 down sessions in a row. But if oil does drop below $40/bbl, it won’t be there long.

I considered this my riskiest prediction when I made it, because WTI was already in the $40s and dropping at a rate that would have taken it below $40 by the end of January unless it changed course. So it was a prediction that had the potential to be wrong shortly after I made it. Nevertheless, I still made it.

But the prediction survived until nearly September. On January 28th WTI closed at $44.08, but then ran back up to $53.56 over the following 3 weeks. Then WTI retraced to $44.02 by March 19th on concerns of growing crude oil inventories before running back up and bouncing around $60/bbl for most of May and June. So for most of the year, the price had proved to be pretty resistant to $40 — even though each time the price reached the low $40s, there were predictions that oil would continue to fall, possibly to as low as $10/bbl. It was only last week that the price finally closed below $40, and it only spent 2 sessions below $40 before the price surged.

What action might someone have taken on the basis of this prediction? If they believed the prediction, they might have viewed $40 as a buying opportunity for oil futures or oil companies. But if I called a floor at $40, and the price actually fell to $38.24 (the closing price of WTI on 8/24/15), was that a useful prediction? It all depends on what happens afterward. As I write these words, the price of WTI is now back up to $49.20 after surging over 28% since the lows of a week ago. Beleaguered oil companies have notched double-digit gains across the board. If you bought at $40 then you are happy right now, even though you might have bought just a bit lower. If the price plummets again and falls to $30 or lower, then in addition to the prediction of a $40 floor being wrong, the context will have been wrong and it will have cost investors (including myself) real money.

Those who are writing to me gloating are those who believe the narrative is wrong. They are the ones who believe that oil prices will go down much further. I still don’t see that happening. So whether the bottom was $40 or whether it was $38.24, I still view this as an unsustainably low price for oil in today’s world. U.S. oil production is now falling in response to low prices (and the EIA just revised U.S. production down again), and global demand is increasing by about 150,000 bpd per month. On the other hand, crude oil inventories are still high. The next major price move by oil will probably be dictated by how quickly falling production and rising demand can put a dent in crude oil inventories.

Checking in on the BP Prediction

By the way, I said above that 2 of my 2015 predictions could be proven right or wrong before year end. The prediction on a $40 floor for WTI was proven wrong. The other — “BP will be bought out or merged in 2015” — only has the potential to be proven correct before year end.

Again, there is the prediction, and there is the narrative that was behind the prediction. BP being bought out in 2015 was an aggressive prediction for several reasons, and while the $40 floor price for WTI was the riskiest prediction, as I noted when I made it, the BP prediction was “my most aggressive, wild card prediction for 2015.” A lot of things admittedly had to fall into place for that to happen in 2015, but the narrative behind this prediction was that because of their huge, high-profile missteps, BP would be more valuable under a different label. BP knows this, and their competitors know it. When I made the prediction BP’s proved reserves were on the books for a much lower value than those of their competitors. A person who accepted that reasoning might have opted to invest in BP instead of one of the other oil supermajors.

In fact, I have regularly argued this year in my weekly columns at Investing Daily that BP is grossly undervalued relative to the other oil supermajors. And even though it has been a bad market all around the energy sector this year, BP has outperformed its other supermajor competitors. Year-to-date, the share price of BP has performed 6.1% better than ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), 8.7% better than Shell (NYSE: RDS-A), and 15.6% better than Chevron (NYSE: CVX). So this could ultimately turn out like the $40 prediction — wrong, but with a useful (and actionable) narrative.

Wrong Prediction, Wrong Narrative

Now this doesn’t mean all the predictions I made this year had narratives that were ultimately of value. I have at least 2 where the narrative hasn’t played out like I thought it would, because oil prices were unable to hold onto the $60/bbl level they reached back in May. So when I am grading my predictions, if $38.24 holds as the floor I will consider that not too bad. I will grade myself much harsher on my predictions for the average oil price in 2015, and the performance of the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE). As it stands right now — and as will probably be the case at year-end — these will be situations where the prediction and the narrative were both wrong.

Different Strokes

Some of you may know that I write for a number of outlets. I employ different styles for different outlets. Here, I am more interested in what’s going on in the energy world without as much focus on the investment angle. When I write for Investing Daily, I will dig deeper into data supporting or undermining an investment case. I have done that for both the $40/bbl oil prediction, and the BP merger prediction.

Following my January predictions, I had a reader complain “You aren’t analyzing enough data to reach your conclusions.” It is true that I didn’t reproduce all the data here, but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t produced and analyzed. I am not flipping a coin to make these predictions. But the prediction column isn’t meant to be one that encompasses all the data. The six predictions I made could have each supported multiple columns (and several have).

I could address these concerns by frequently linking to Investing Daily articles that analyze the data in more depth. I have written at least 3 columns on BP, and probably 5 this year on oil prices for Investing Daily. But I don’t link to them much for two reasons. One is that you often have to wade through ads to get to the column. Regular readers here may be put off by that (and I don’t control it). Second, some of the articles end up behind a paywall anyway. So readers that are accustomed to one experience here will get a different feel over there.


Once more, because I won’t be able to say it enough to satisfy some critics, I predicted the price of WTI would not close below $40/bbl this year. It did last week, so that prediction fails. But as I advised in last week’s Investing Daily column — Panic Creates Opportunity for those who are well-informed and unafraid of short-term losses. If you are a long-term investor, $40/bbl oil is an opportunity that hasn’t been seen since 2008-9, after which the oil markets went on a five-year bull run. That’s unlikely to happen again, but I think energy stocks should outperform the broader market from $40/bbl. Or, in my opinion the upside at that point is greater than the downside.

If you are an investor who agrees with the rationale behind my $40 WTI prediction, then you likely agree that the narrative is more important than whether oil bottomed at $40 or at $38. Prices are just shy of $50 as I write this, but the operative word here continues to be volatility. The oil markets can change quickly. What looks like a buy today may not look like that in 3 months. The path forward is likely to continue to be rocky, but if you have the courage of your convictions I believe dips like we saw last week should be viewed as opportunities for long-term investors given the world’s current supply/demand outlook.

Consumer Energy Report » R-Squared Energy Blog by Robert Rapier

30 Comments on "Robert Rapier: Lessons From a Failed Prediction"

  1. penury on Mon, 31st Aug 2015 8:39 pm 

    If you can get three out of six correct in a field as volatile as energy in the conditions which exist both economically as well as politically at the current time, You will have managed to make more reason out of the world than the govt or the Fed.

  2. Makati1 on Mon, 31st Aug 2015 8:51 pm 

    penury, you said it. It is almost impossible to find the truth these days. Everyone is either afraid for their careers and income, or they are afraid of the Gestapo and being blackmailed.

    I read hundreds of articles from scores of sources, everyday, to get the picture I have of current events and conditions. All I can say is that they are both getting worse daily. I have shifted my preps into 4th gear and hope to be away from the worst situation (out of the city) in the next 12 months. Before the American elections. I suspect that 2017 is going to be the year the SHTF. But, I could be wrong…lol.

  3. Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Mon, 31st Aug 2015 9:05 pm 

    If people didn’t make predictions then Nony wouldn’t have nothing to gloat about when the predictions are incorrect. Coming from a guy who makes no predictions himself and doesn’t seem to criticize the EIA’s failed predictions as strongly as he criticizes the Peak Oil predictions I’d say Nony is a special kind of retarded.

  4. Boat on Mon, 31st Aug 2015 9:32 pm 

    Predictions are easy for doomers, the crash is coming soon. Then when it doesn’t they just roll the prediction over to, the crash is coming soon.

  5. Davy on Mon, 31st Aug 2015 9:47 pm 

    Cornucopians just adapt the number per a “goal seek”. What is the difference Boat?

  6. GregT on Mon, 31st Aug 2015 10:02 pm 

    “Predictions are easy for doomers, the crash is coming soon. Then when it doesn’t they just roll the prediction over to, the crash is coming soon.”

    See a crash yet Boat? Soon hasn’t come yet. Why such a hurry? The longer it takes before it happens the better, no?

  7. apneaman on Mon, 31st Aug 2015 10:23 pm 

    Boat why was there an “economic” crash in 2008? Dot com? 1987? Enron, savings and loan, etc, etd? They were all predicted and warned of, but the people who were doing the warning were shouted down and ridiculed by the talking heads and PTB “experts” and their army of true believer fucking morons. Know what I mean Private boat? Economic crashes are easy to call when one see it for what it is. Tack on overshoot and it’s as predictable as saying tomorrow is tuesday. Maybe it will be Black tuesday Redux.

  8. Boat on Mon, 31st Aug 2015 11:32 pm 

    There will be more economic crashes because the regulations still are not fair enough and allow to much risk. We humans are reactionary people but gains are made incrementally. Not as fast as many want because greed carries with it a lot of influence.

  9. apneaman on Mon, 31st Aug 2015 11:42 pm 

    well boat capitalism is 500 years old and getting more corrupt by the day. Any idea when “they” might decide to start fixing her up? Keep me posted buddy. I would watch for myself by I’m busily watching, in fascinated horror, our once stable environment unravel at an ever quickening pace. So much doom – so little time.

  10. Outcast_Searcher on Mon, 31st Aug 2015 11:49 pm 

    If Robert Rapier is such a genius about energy issues and prices, why doesn’t he just make a fortune trading energy investments, and dispense with having to make long winded excuses about why his bloviating is incorrect?

    Could it be that selling investment “advice” doesn’t have an economic downside for incorrect predictions?

  11. apneaman on Tue, 1st Sep 2015 12:33 am 

    How do you know he hasn’t made a fortune? Have you seen his portfolio? Who said he was a genius? I mean other than you. Do you have a link where RR claims he is a genius? At least he makes rational arguments to try and make his case where all you ever do is essentially call everyone a whiner or complainer who does not share your view, but make no actual argument. I think I pointed this out to you before, your theme of everyone is whining.

  12. Boat on Tue, 1st Sep 2015 1:16 am 


    Here we go again with the good o’l day routine. When was the world more stable. You pick a time period and I will find ya links to the chaos of that time. History has bigger fires, bigger famines bigger wars and whiskey for pain etc. We may be burning the earth for our descendants but other than that, times are great.

  13. GregT on Tue, 1st Sep 2015 2:19 am 

    “When was the world more stable.”

    The world has always been more stable, at least throughout recorded history. It has never been more unstable than it is now. If you are referring to human beings as ‘the world’, human beings have always been unstable, and the more of us that there are, the more unstable we become. Times are great, if you happen to be one of the humans that is contributing the most to the demise of your own children, but for those 80% or so that are not, times are not great at all. If you believe that other than “burning the earth for our descendants” times are great, you have a serious psychological disorder, and you need help.

  14. Davy on Tue, 1st Sep 2015 2:39 am 

    Boat said “I will find ya links to the chaos of that time.” Boat, can you find a link to chaos with 7Bil people completely dependent on a depleting foundational commodity supporting delocalized locals in a pillaged global ecosystem in decline with localized failures? We have never before been in this situation. What is tragic is it is irreversible systematically with population and consumption and likely with the ecosystem. We are likely facing long term abrupt climate change and currently in a 6th great extinction. Boat, there are no comparisons in our past 10,000 years of history.

  15. Plantagenet on Tue, 1st Sep 2015 4:43 am 

    Rapier sure whined a lot about being wrong.
    Robert—it’s OK. You win some and you lose some

  16. marmico on Tue, 1st Sep 2015 7:30 am 

    Who butters Rapier’s bread? i.e. follow the money.

    It can’t be “hits” on his blog. Methinks that there is a lack of transparency in his attachment to the financial arena.

    Are you a certified financial planner dispensing advice in the oil arena, Robert? If so, that’s a heck of a let down jumping out of choppers in the North Sea working for COP 10 years ago.

  17. Outcast_Searcher on Tue, 1st Sep 2015 10:29 am 

    Well Apneadoomflogger, I’ll assume Rapier is intelligent enough that if he had made a fortune following his own “accurate” predictions, he wouldn’t be spending his time hawking his advice like thousands of other news-letter writing self proclaimed financial gurus.

    He could retire. He could spend time on his island or yacht, and yet he spends time “explaining” his bad calls. Sure. He does that because it’s “fun”. Gotcha.

    Your theme is empty-headed attacking, with no substance or logic to back it up. Hint — my occasionally pointing out whining is afoot isn’t telling “everyone” they’re whining — but empty-headed random yelling doesn’t take any accuracy, does it?

    But I know, flogging doom is far easier than original thinking.

  18. GregT on Tue, 1st Sep 2015 10:55 am 

    “He could retire. He could spend time on his island or yacht”


    he could spend time “explaining” his bad calls” (Even if this call wasn’t really bad.) His choice.

    If you had of bought in at his $40, you still would have made money. So far…….

  19. RobertRapier on Tue, 1st Sep 2015 11:24 am 

    I have a meeting in 20 minutes. I will address some of these now, and some later if I don’t get to them all. Is Outcast_Searcher Nony? Seems like his style, but if Nony got banned I didn’t know it. Anyway…

    “If Robert Rapier is such a genius about energy issues and prices, why doesn’t he just make a fortune trading energy investments…”

    That’s extremely presumptuous don’t you think? Do you think the guys you see dispensing advice on CNBC don’t get paid for that advice? Or does the fact that they are dispensing advice mean they aren’t successful, since they should have become rich and retired? Perhaps they also walk their talk? Trade on their own advice? I certainly do. You make me want to brag, but I am very private about that kind of thing. Let’s put it this way. When Investing Daily head-hunted me, they saw my portfolio. They saw my trades.

    “Rapier sure whined a lot about being wrong.”

    You misunderstand my point entirely. My point is that an incorrect prediction isn’t necessarily a bad call. I already have emails from people who bought EOG or COP when oil hit $40 on the basis of my call. Yes, it went a bit lower, but right now they are sitting on gains. The guys predicting $20 oil have done nothing for them.

    “Who butters Rapier’s bread? i.e. follow the money.”

    I am totally transparent about what I do. It’s in my CV and resume on my blog, and it’s in my LinkedIn profile. But here goes.

    I have a day job. I am a chemical engineer in charge of a team of technical people. Right now I work for a start up in Arizona, and I have 2 major projects I am working on. They are both related to flare gas mitigation in the oil fields. We are designing units to be deployed in the field. We just had one installed in the Bakken over the weekend, and I am scheduled to go up and start doing tests on it by the end of the month. I am also in charge of the company’s methanol program, where we take flare gas and convert it to methanol.

    Second, I have a part time job for Investing Daily. They head-hunted me 3 years ago and asked if I would write some regular columns for them. I have been writing my blog (for no compensation) since 2005. You are correct, blog hits don’t pay the bills. But I love to write, and I have been an investor for 30 years. The marriage was quite easy. So I write some columns for them, and I manage 3 model energy portfolios for them. All subscribers have access to those portfolios, and all 3 have beaten the energy indices in every 6 month period since I have been doing this. I invest my own money on the basis of the advice I dispense. I don’t have to do any of the marketing or promoting. All I have to do is write and manage those portfolios.

    I have also written columns for outlets for hire (e.g., Washington Post, NewsMax, various industry publications) and I am currently serving as an expert witness in a trial for the 2nd time.


  20. RobertRapier on Tue, 1st Sep 2015 11:30 am 

    “I’ll assume Rapier is intelligent enough that if he had made a fortune following his own “accurate” predictions, he wouldn’t be spending his time hawking his advice like thousands of other news-letter writing self proclaimed financial gurus. He could retire. He could spend time on his island or yacht, and yet he spends time “explaining” his bad calls.”

    It wasn’t a bad call. It was an inaccurate prediction. There is a big difference, which was the point of my column that you missed. People — including myself — have made money off of that call. At least to this point. It still has the potential to be a bad call. If those calling for $20 oil turn out to be right, it will have been a bad call. In a binary or black and white world, the prediction was wrong. In the real world, it was close enough that it has made people real money at this point.

    Here is the difference. I predicted the average price of oil this year would be $60 or higher. That is looking like a bad call. No redemption there. No “well it was close enough to make people money.” That was a bad call. Full stop.

    But people who make predictions know that you won’t be right all the time. The key is to be right more than you are wrong when you are investing, and I have done that pretty consistently.

    On retirement, I will never retire. If I have $10 million or $100 million in the bank, I won’t retire. I need to stay busy. But think about the silliness of what you are arguing. People who are successful in investing wouldn’t write newsletters because they could make a fortune investing their advice. You know, a lot of people do both. A lot of guys you see on CNBC have made a lot of money, and they write newsletters.

  21. apneaman on Tue, 1st Sep 2015 11:38 am 

    Assuming is your main problem
    Outhouse Searcher. Like assuming that if someone is rich they automatically would have or want an island or yacht – because you do? Assuming everyone definition of fun is the same as yours or is motivated by money and money alone – cause you are? You assume this because you cannot imagine any other reasons why he would do what he does if he does not have to. Which is just a big argument from ignorance. Rapier is a chemical engineer with plenty of experience in the biz and writes extensively on oil. Your whinings are not occasional – it’s every time you open your face and anyone can go through your posts and find the many instances of you calling people whiners. It’s pretty obvious.

  22. Davy on Tue, 1st Sep 2015 12:31 pm 

    RR, thanks for the explanation and background. Most of all thanks for the contributions that filter in to our blog. You appear genuine in you passion for the subject. Those of us who are doing ok are more concern with our passions than the money. I could have been filthy rich instead I am a goat farmer and loving it.

  23. RobertRapier on Tue, 1st Sep 2015 12:37 pm 

    “Assuming is your main problem
    Outhouse Searcher.”

    That is why I wondered if Outhouse Searcher is Nony. He always did the same thing. Like he had this rationale in his head, and there could be no other explanation than this story he had constructed in his imagination. Seems like some kind of personality disorder.

    Being rich is also relative. A lot of people think I am rich. My parents and siblings think I am rich. I don’t think that way at all. My daughter once said something about “her rich dad” and I told her not to ever say that again.

    I grew up with no money, and most of the time I still live my life like money is tight. I am frugal with money, and a pretty cautious investor. No matter how much money I might accumulate, you will never see me flaunt it. If you are rich and you let people know you are rich, you open up all kinds of doors that were better left closed. In fact, sometimes I give presentations on investing, and one of my golden rules is “Build your wealth discreetly.”

    If someone sees my discretion as an indication that I have had no success, that’s fine with me. The only time it is annoying is when someone makes incorrect assumptions, and then proceeds to use those assumptions in a demeaning way. Hard not to respond to that.

  24. RobertRapier on Tue, 1st Sep 2015 12:40 pm 

    “Those of us who are doing ok are more concern with our passions than the money.”

    I am not obsessive about money, but it is a tool. I make a little money when I can. I do have enough to retire, but I am only 48. I am going to retire and do what? I already do all the things I would do if I was retired. I like having a busy life.

  25. GregT on Tue, 1st Sep 2015 1:13 pm 

    Thanks for dropping by and setting the record straight Robert.

  26. Boat on Tue, 1st Sep 2015 1:57 pm 

    Robert Rapier,
    I have been always been amazed that flaring was ever allowed in the first place.
    Was the reason for the start up because of upcoming federal regulations or a way to make money from wasted fuel. Is this startup government sponsored?

  27. RobertRapier on Tue, 1st Sep 2015 2:24 pm 

    “Is this startup government sponsored?”

    No government money. That doesn’t mean we will never take any; I don’t know and that won’t be my decision. But the company has been around for a few years and has been funded by investors.

    There are several drivers, but probably the primary driver is regulatory. There is some money to be made, but in this cost-cutting environment I doubt companies would be investing in this were it not for pending regulations.

  28. BobInget on Tue, 1st Sep 2015 3:15 pm 

    Yeah, Bob Inget thanks you too Robert.

    My oil price predictions are based almost entirely on geopolitical trends, events.
    Lately, the greater the danger (to oil imports)
    the more oil retreats.
    It’s a pleasure to read your stuff.

    All the hard evidence I have points to LT shortages. As for markets, have you checked
    NYC apartment or London flat rental rates lately? It’s all about HST and who has the fastest in/out trading program to scare the natives.

    Utilities were down today on Communist China’s news, does that make any sense at all?
    Oil fell on zero hard, factual news.
    Chinese, never mind India’s oil imports, reached record highs. This, from the same time period flogging slower growth.
    (growth not consumption)

  29. BobInget on Tue, 1st Sep 2015 3:18 pm 

    Nova Scotia’s Business Minister Mark Furey says he “understands” Nova Scotians’ frustration at being inconvenienced by ongoing shortages of gasoline that began on Saturday and continue in some parts of the province.

    But Furey says his government doesn’t plan to introduce regulations to prevent future runouts.

    “The province has no role in managing the supply of fuel, that’s the responsibility of industry,” he told journalists.

    “The responsibility of the province is specific to pricing. So what’s important here is we continue to engage industry and we clearly understand the contributing factors to these circumstances and work going forward to mitigate these circumstances.”

    The “circumstances,” as Imperial Oil spokesperson Merle MacIsaac described them, were the delay of vessels carrying gasoline. Imperial is refusing to comment on an explanation provided by one of its customers, Dave Collins, the vice-presdient of Wilson Fuels.

    Gasoline shipments diverted

    Collins told CBC gas stations were rationed starting Friday because two cargoes, one from the Gulf of Mexico and the other from Europe, didn’t meet all of Imperial’s “quality control checks” and were diverted elsewhere.

    Collins said it wasn’t until after the arrival of a third ship at Imperial’s Dartmouth terminal on Saturday that gasoline became available to service stations on the mainland starting at 8 a.m. Monday.

    gas shortage
    The Petro Canada in Tantallon had gas Sunday and there were long lines to get it, with about four to five cars waiting per pump. (Steve Lawrence/CBC)

  30. BobInget on Tue, 1st Sep 2015 6:00 pm 

    Needed: Light oil.

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