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Jack Albert on Unwinding the Human Predicament

General Ideas

Jack Alpert is director of Stanford Knowledge Integration Lab, a Lab which he started in 1978 at Stanford University. In 1992 the Lab left Stanford and became a non profit research foundation. The research focused on how people gather and process information to understand dynamic systems. Over the years the Lab has transitioned its focus to the relationship between human cognition and civilization viability. The current work is on discovering and implementing behavior that “changes our course” and creates a sustainable civilization. Mr. Alpert predicts that the human population will be reduced by 90 percent before the year 2100.

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45 Comments on "Jack Albert on Unwinding the Human Predicament"

  1. MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:46 pm 

    Simple really….when the World Economy Collapses everything shuts down…the end… We’re talking about grids down all over the world and 7.5B people dropping like f*** flies in short order. The collapse will be absolutely horrible..There is no collapse or horror movie ever produced that has even come close to imagining what the collapse of BAU might look like. I’m talking about every corporation and every social program going bankrupt at once. I’m talking about people eating people. I’m talking about the Worst Catastrophe to ever happen in the history of mankind. Nothing has ever, or will ever come close…

  2. makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:57 pm 

    “The Methane Time Bomb and the Future of the Biosphere”

    “Mr. Alpert predicts that the human population will be reduced by 90 percent before the year 2100.” I say 100% and sooner.

    Mother Nature is bringing out her big guns and there is NO defense.

  3. Joe Clarkson on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:04 pm 

    Yes Mastermind, and that’s if we’re lucky enough to avoid a large scale nuclear war involving both the northern and southern hemispheres.

    Economic collapse will leave millions of survivors, especially in the remote backwaters of developing countries, but a bad nuclear winter could kill off all of humanity and many other terrestrial species as well.

  4. onlooker on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:07 pm 

    It is all actually quite clear and unavoidable
    “Burning Fossil Fuels Almost Ended All Life on Earth”

  5. MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:11 pm 


    After the economic collapse happens the worlds nuke plants will likely melt down and explode and it will be an extinction event. And I doubt there will be a major world war because globalism won’t allow it.

  6. Duncan Idaho on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:27 pm 

    I’ll listen to it tonight.
    Kunstler, while always a bit ahead of the curve, and not always on target, is entertaining.

  7. makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:30 pm 

    MM, your childish dreams of horrible death and destruction to the WHOLE human race is laughable. MOST of the worlds population has no real need of globalization or even money. 1st worlders have a difficult time believing that, but it is true.

    Joe is correct. “Economic collapse will leave millions of survivors, especially in the remote backwaters of developing countries…” I live in a “backwater” area of a developing country and know that what I am saying is correct. All you do is parrot movies and Us MSM propaganda.

    Global winter, if there is a nuke war, may kill all of us off, but that will not be because some nuke plants melted down. If that happened only those close by them may die quickly. The rest will likely die of cancers sometime 10-30 years later. Your education is really lacking Mm.

  8. MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:53 pm 


    who has evidence to back up their arguments and who doesn’t?

    Now shut the hell up you dumb hick feebile minded incel!

  9. makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:58 pm 

    “Now shut the hell up you dumb hick feebile minded incel!” says the 12 year old MM.

    What proof? Well, 74 years experience in the real world, a real education and common sense. All lacking in you.

    Go hit your mom up for a twenty and see another zombie movie, worthless.

  10. Bloomer on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 8:09 pm 

    Mankind is not going to wean themselves off of fossel fuels. As a result, the planet will shed itself of the humanoids.

    It’s all good.

  11. onlooker on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 8:23 pm 

    It’s all good.— Now that is a healthy outlook
    Or as a song says—Don’t worry be happy

  12. MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 8:26 pm 


    A real education? LOL that really shows with the sources you post! Just admit it. You have no proof of what you argue about the just the US solely collapsing..And I do have several studies of proof of my argument for global collapse. Just be honest. But i guess its hard to teach old dogs new tricks.

  13. DMyers on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 8:41 pm 

    There may be only two left, a 20 year old schizo male and a 12 year old intellectually borderline girl,…but I assure you they will reproduce, and we’ll be on our way to replenishing the Earth, once again.

  14. Boat on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 9:01 pm 

    Lol @ studies for a global collaspe. Since BC became AD these studies have been floating around. Mm figures to have an accurate one because kids at a college wrote it.

  15. MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 9:09 pm 


    Show me some studies from BC that say that? And the studies I posted are not written by children by experts with PhD’s..But I know, what do doctros know anyways…

  16. MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 9:12 pm 


    At the start of every disaster movie, there is a scientist being ignored! Too bad you tub o lards in TexASS are to stupid to understand science! lol

  17. makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 9:49 pm 

    MM, you keep proving your immaturity, stupidity and delusions. You and Davy are the laughing stock of PO.

  18. Boat on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 9:55 pm 


    Is 2800 BC early enough for you?

  19. MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 9:56 pm 


    Right when my nephew is coming out of diapers you will be going into them….LOL

  20. MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 9:59 pm 


    Those are religious nutters. Not peer reviewed scientific studies done by experts. Apples to rocks..You fat sack of shit! LOL

  21. Boat on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 9:59 pm 


    You need to read a study on how doing a Google will demystify the conclusions of a study or multiple studies with different conclusions.

  22. deadly on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 10:01 pm 

    MasterNoMind, it is too, not to, too stupid, you stupid imbecile.

  23. makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 10:01 pm 

    When he is out of diapers he will be more mature than you are MM. You are a lost cause already and no future. Get a job and off the internet. Be independent of your family and friends. Grow up.

  24. Boat on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 10:09 pm 


    That Danial Hood on Twitter, is that you or do you just parret his shyt. History is filled with religion. Kings also determined what science is. Like Trump does now. Just ask him about science and fake news.

  25. makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 11:53 pm 

    “Scientific studies” done by paid professionals to produce the results wanted by those who sign their paychecks.

    Experts = drips under pre$$ure.

    Your college brainwashing was a success and you paid to have them do it to you. Perfect slave. LMAO

  26. makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 11:54 pm 

    BTW, MM. I’ve been self-supporting and on my own for 55 years. I doubt you have been either for 55 minutes.

  27. Cloggie on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 12:14 am 

    Mr. Alpert predicts that the human population will be reduced by 90 percent before the year 2100.

    By that time he won’t be around to be confronted with his assertions.

    Nevertheless, there are some encouraging signs that population reduction might occur without dark scenarios (no pun intended).

  28. Kat C on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 4:44 am 

    A little known fact about Chernobyl.
    “Janet Fang
    By Janet Fang
    17 MAR 2014, 23:34

    It’s been nearly 30 years since the catastrophe at Chernobyl, and as the cleanup grinds on, the far-reaching effects continue to be documented. Birds with smaller brains, increasing spiders, decreasing butterflies, all these and more have been reported from the areas surrounding Chernobyl. One group you don’t hear very much about are the decomposers — those bugs, microbes, fungi, and slime molds who nourish themselves by consuming the remains of dead organisms. Without these recyclers, carbon, nitrogen, and other elements essential to life would be locked in plant corpses.

    The effects of radioactive contamination on the decay of plant material remains unknown… until now. Scientists examining the forests around Chernobyl have found that radioactive contamination has reduced the rate of litter mass loss. The dead leaves on the forest floor, along with the dead pine trees in the infamous Red Forest, don’t seem to be decaying — even a couple decades after the incident.”
    While that not mean much to most people, the implications are staggering. When collapse happens and 400+ nuclear plants go Chernobyl the decomposition of plant matter all over the world will likely cease. Since the recyling that decompositon usually provides is vital to plant life and plant life is vital to animal life it spells the end of higher life on this planet. And that is before you add in the affects of the radiation on us humans and climate change reaching web bulb temps where humans and plants can’t live. Meanwhile ozone is in more trouble that we have been told Game over for humans.

  29. Davy on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 6:20 am 

    “Population The Elephant in the Room”

    “Taking the carrying capacity effects discussed above into account, I initially set the bar for a sustainable population at the population when we discovered oil in about 1850. This was about 1.2 billion people. Next I subtracted some number to account for the world’s degraded carrying capacity, then added back a bit to account for our increased knowledge and the ameliorating effects of oil substitutes. This is a necessarily imprecise calculation, but I have settled on a round number of one billion people as the long-term sustainable population of the planet in the absence of oil.”

    “The model is a simple arithmetical simulation that answers the following question: “Given the assumptions about birth and death rates listed above, how will human population numbers evolve to get from our current population of 6.6 billion to a sustainable population of 1 billion in 75 years?” It is not a predictive model. It is aggregated to a global level, and so can tell us nothing about regional effects. It also cannot address social outcomes. Its primary intent is to allow us to examine the roll that excess deaths will play in the next 75 years”

    “We will start by graphing the net birth rate over the period 2007 to 2082, incorporating a 0.015% annual decline: As you can see, the net birth rate declines to zero by 2082. Is it possible that this declining birth rate will get us closer to our sustainable population goal of one billion? As you can see, my assumption about declining birth rates leads to a stable population, but it’s still 50% larger than today. In fact, this projection is remarkably similar to the one produced by the United Nations, which estimates a global population of 9.2 billion in 2050. The message of this graph is clear. If we need to reduce our population, simply adjusting the birth rate is insufficient. There will be excess deaths required to reach our target.”

    “The following graph shows the excess death rate rising and then falling as described above. I will reiterate that the origin of these excess deaths is not considered in the model. It is sufficient to understand that these are not the result of old age or the various “natural causes” we have come to accept as a part of our modern life. These deaths may be due to such things as rising infant mortality rates, shorter adult life expectancies, famine, pandemics, wars etc. Some of these deaths will be from human agency, but most will not. Applying the above excess death rate to our current population yields the following curve. As you can see, the number of excess deaths per year increases quite rapidly (consistent with the effects of overshoot) and then falls off as the population comes back into balance with the resources available. The peak rate of deaths comes much earlier than the peak in the percentage death rate shown in the above graph because the population starts to decline rapidly. A lower percentage death rate acts on a larger population to produce a higher numerical death rate. As the population declines so does the numerical death rate, even when the percentage rate still increasing.”

    “The final graph is the outcome of the full simulation. It starts from our current population and shows the combined effects of a declining net birth rate and the excess death rate due to falling carrying capacity as described above. The goal of the model has been met: it has achieved a sustainable world population of one billion by the year 2082.”

    “The human cost of such an involuntary population rebalancing is, of course, horrific. Based on this model we would experience an average excess death rate of 100 million per year every year for the next 75 years to achieve our target population of one billion by 2082. The peak excess death rate would happen in about 20 years, and would be about 200 million that year. To put this in perspective, WWII caused an excess death rate of only 10 million per year for only six years. Given this, it’s not hard to see why population control is the untouchable elephant in the room – the problem we’re in is simply too big for humane or even rational solutions. It’s also not hard to see why some people are beginning to grasp the inevitability of a human die-off.”

  30. MASTERMIND on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 6:24 am 


    You sound like clogg like a paranoid loon. All the experts are being paid, its all a conspiracy! You are a tin foil hat nut job. Its obvious your cognitive abilities are not working properly.

  31. Antius on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 6:29 am 

    “While that not mean much to most people, the implications are staggering. When collapse happens and 400+ nuclear plants go Chernobyl the decomposition of plant matter all over the world will likely cease.”

    Kat C, did you download the study and read it? I did. The 40% reduction in decomposition rates that you allude to occurs at dose rates greater than 100μSv per hour – 0.88Sv/year. That is a whacking dose – hundreds of time normal background radiation dose rates.

    If we do experience a 1930s or worse economic downturn and nuclear facilities are shut down and fuel ponds fall into disrepair; these sorts of effects could occur in the direct vicinity, i.e. where there is direct run-off of radioactive material. That means a few square miles to perhaps a few tens of square miles. But the entire world? Not possible short of an all-out nuclear exchange.

  32. Darrell Cloud on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 7:40 am 

    I’m pushing seventy, for me the end of the world will come in the next 15 years. For the rest of you it will come a bit later, but it will come.

    Play nice. we are all dead men walking.

  33. Duncan Idaho on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 8:36 am 

    “I’m pushing seventy”

    Welcome to the club!

  34. fmr-paultard on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 9:00 am 

    old guys, don’t be afraid of dying. u need to live your life happily physically and spiritually. i purposely put physically first because i once heard some guy making the assertion that all feelings are physical. i appreciate taht.

    listen you lived a good life, a lot better than a tard who don’t score. i’m in a worse off place and i’m happy. that’s all you can do. live a life you want and hopeflly you drop off quickly when it time to go.

  35. Darrell Cloud on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 9:43 am 

    It’s been a great run and with any luck it is not over yet. My point is all of us have a limit. We are marathon runners. I have already passed the baton. I simply serve as a backup now. My effort is to push the kids through the bottleneck. We all should be making an effort to enable the remnant to survive.

  36. makati1 on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 5:05 pm 

    MM, keep proving your immaturity and ignorance. It’s entertaining to watch the moneys at the zoo also.

    BTW: You didn’t refute my assertion that you are living off of your mom and friends instead of being a self-supporting adult. Maybe I am hitting to many nerves? LMAO

  37. MASTERMIND on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 5:38 pm 


    You think you are some collapse expert. And you have no education to qualify as one. And the people who do you accuse of being paid to lie and of unverified conspiracies..You are grasping at straws. Maybe you are having oncoming dementia.

  38. makati1 on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 6:08 pm 

    It’s fun poking the village idiots.and they don’t even know they are being poked. LOL

  39. makati1 on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 6:10 pm 

    Give it up guys, you cannot win. Neither of you have any idea what the real world is like. None. You both live in delusional fantasy worlds. Anything you post is pure brainwashed bullshit.

  40. MASTERMIND on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 6:41 pm 

    Doomie Preppers, think of the hungry drugged murderers… rapists…when society collapses.

    think of your wives… your daughters… you need a Plan B…. an exit from hell.

  41. onlooker on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 6:43 pm 

    Take lots of sleeping pills and jump into deep water

  42. MASTERMIND on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 6:53 pm 

    A $7 Trillion Debt Pile Looms Large Over Chinese Households

    China is going down hard! Way too much debt! And they are the worlds largest oil importer and peak oil has arrived! They are going to get crushed the hardest when the oil shortages hit! And investors are going to bail on their debt and they will turn into Venezuela. And they will be eating their pets,,oh wait they already do that! LOL

    Bye Bye you ugly slant eyes! And take your Asian carp back with ya!

  43. makati1 on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 8:05 pm 

    “A $7 Trillion Debt Pile Looms Large Over Chinese Households”

    MM: US personal debt = ~$19,000,000,000,000.00 That is NINETEEN TRILLION dollars. And a Us population less than 1/4 that of China. Math challenged?

    YOU owe ~$65,000 as YOUR share of the Us Government debt, not to mention any you have personally run up. Pay up slave!

    BTW: You can pay my share also as I no longer pay ANY Us taxes. I am also debt free. You will never be, unless you are dead.

  44. Dooma on Tue, 1st May 2018 9:56 am 

    We can only wish Mak. MM, you are a know it all smarmy little shit. You think you know everything because you read it on the net.

    You pick on Mak for using his hands for a living, but in a crisis, you could not even build something out of Leggo.

    You have never lived without Google and mobile phones. You are soft.

  45. efarmer on Tue, 1st May 2018 12:29 pm 

    The main reason I come here is that one of the people is going to be right about the end of life as we know it, both in cause, and exact timing. This is for certain, someone will “nail it”. Once I find out who it was, from then on I am going to follow them closely, so the next time the world ends, I will have the best information available, and of course, I will have loads of personal cred and be a very cool guy. Before the world ends I would like to tell all of you who will be dead wrong at that time, that you are idiots and have wasted my precious time, but that I am a big person, and have decided not to hold this against your souls (for those so equipped). My only real fear in all of this, is that God will buy all of these threads for a pittance at the last minute, when everything gets dirt cheap from uncertainty, and then use them for targeted advertising against our bracketed demographic souls for the rest of eternity.

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