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Page added on September 30, 2018
Dealing With Collapse: The Seneca Strategy
The ruins of the Egyptian Pyramid of Meidum, perhaps the first large building to collapse in history (*). The collapse of large structures is part of a fascinating field of study that we may call “Collapsology.” I already wrote a book on this subject, titled “The Seneca Effect” (Springer and Oekom 1917), available in English and in German. Now, I am writing a second book with Springer which expands and goes more in depth into the matter with the idea of being a “collapse manual” dedicated to how to understand, manage, and even profit from collapses. It should be titled “The Seneca Strategy” and it will be available in 2019.
About 2,000 years ago, the Roman philosopher Lucius Annaeus Seneca wrote to his friend Licilius noting that “growth is slow, but ruin is rapid“. It looks obvious, but it was one of those observations that turn out to be not obvious at all if you go in some depth into their meaning. Do you remember the story of Newton’s apple? Everyone knows that apples fall from trees, isn’t it obvious? Yes, but it was the start of a chain of thoughts that led Isaac Newton to devise something that was not at all obvious: the law of universal gravitation. It is the same thing for Seneca’s observation that “ruin is rapid.” Everyone knows that it is true, think of a house of cards. But why is it like this?
Seneca’s observation – which I dubbed “The Seneca Effect” (or the “Seneca Cliff” or the “Seneca Collapse”) is one of the key elements we need to understanding the developments of what we now call the “science of complexity.” In the space of a few decades, starting since the 1960s, the development of digital computing has allowed us to tackle problems that, at the time of Newton (not to mention those of Seneca), could not be studied except in a very approximate way.
Using system dynamics, network science, agent-based modeling, and more, this new science has allowed us to penetrate a world that in a certain sense was familiar to us: the world of real things that are born, grow, and sometimes collapse in a ruinous way. The basic ideas in the behavior of complex systems are always the same, especially when dealing with collapses: complex systems are complex because they are dominated by the mechanism we call “feedback.” Because of feedback effects, a large structure may collapse when just one of the elements that compose them fails. That may lead to the failure of the elements that surround it. These, in turn, cause the failure of other elements of the system, and so it goes. The result is what we call an “avalanche” and, as Seneca said, “ruin is rapid”.
One question I am often asked about system science is, “can we use it to predict the future?” Alas, there is a small problem with this question: we cannot have exact data on the future because the future doesn’t exist (yet). But that doesn’t mean that we can try to understand the future. After all, what is the future if not a fan of possibilities that we ourselves may decide to turn into reality? Seneca himself would probably have agreed with this concept: he was deeply involved in the Stoic philosophy. As a good Stoic, he knew that we must always be prepared for the future, knowing full well that ruin can come upon us at any moment. This is true for individuals as well as for an entire society. He himself experienced a “rapid ruin” when his former pupil, Emperor Nero, accused him of treason and ordered him to commit suicide. Seneca had no other choice but to comply.
So, we can use mathematical models to describe the Seneca Effect, but they are mainly a quantification of ancient wisdom. It is not a question of predicting the future, it is a question of understanding it. And we can use the models to understand that the ecosystem in which we live is not a supermarket from which we can take what we need – and without even having to pay. It is a complex system, subject to the Seneca Collapse. And since we are also part of the ecosystem, when the ecosystem collapses, we collapse, too. Even a stoic like Seneca would have said that if we have a chance to avoid the climate collapse, we should try.
All these things, and many more, I put them together in the book published in 2017 that I titled “The Seneca Effect.” Now I am writing another book that should be called “The Seneca Strategy” — it should be published by Springer in 2019. This second book is more a “collapse manual” that can be used to manage collapses: that is, it explains how to avoid being destroyed by collapses, how to minimize damage, and even how to profit from collapses (hint: have your enemies collapse first!). What I said in my first book remains valid: collapse is not a bug, it is a feature of the universe!
Cassandra’s legacy by Ugo Bardi
24 Comments on "Dealing With Collapse: The Seneca Strategy"
Davy on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 12:12 pm
“How Do We Change Our Lives In A System That’s Broken?”
https://tinyurl.com/ya7ahuv2
“Rather than fight a system designed to thwart us, we need a model for our own lives that bypasses the perverse tides and obsoletes the impediments in our path.”
“But what if the system is broken? How do we change our lives for the better in a dysfunctional system of unearned privilege and perverse incentives? Needless to say, it’s difficult, and this is why we see a rise in inward-directed solutions. If we can’t change the external world we inhabit, then the “solution” is to nurture an inner tranquility. It’s no wonder that Taoism–perhaps the ultimate inner-directed philosophy–arose during the Warring States era in China, when social unrest and conflict were endemic. But what about real-world changes such as improving our health, fitness, resilience, work/career satisfaction, income security and psychological well-being? When it comes to affecting real-world changes in a broken system, it often feels like we’re swimming against the tide: the system doesn’t make positive improvements easy, despite an abundance of lip service to individual goals such as losing weight, improving our career options, etc.”
“Accomplishing changes often requires declaring war on convenience, as convenience is the enemy of everything required to swim against the tide:discipline, sustained effort, sacrifice, etc. So how can individuals and households manage positive changes in a destructive, perverse and broken system? One place to start is to eliminate as much marketing as possible, and as many negative, deranging distractions as possible. This means limiting media and social media exposure to a bare minimum. Another is to focus on value rather than convenience. This goes against the tide not just of marketing but of “progress,” which is implicitly defined as an increase in convenience and a decline in drudgery, effort and discipline. Ironically, most of life’s most rewarding things are not convenient at all:fitness, real food prepared at home, acquiring skills with steep learning curves, etc. These are all terribly, horribly, irrevocably inconvenient. Third, look outside the mainstream and status quo “solutions.” Solutions outside the mainstream status quo tend to be inconvenient, wrenching and difficult, and there is very little institutional support for anything outside the mainstream. Rather, the entire weight and force of the status quo is put to bear in support of passive compliance with the approved “solutions.”
I AM THE MOB on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 12:29 pm
This powerful quote at the end of the Holocaust Museum in Washington, DC
https://i.redd.it/4xrf9levwdp11.jpg
And first they came for the immigrants..
Don’t worry though, when the oil starts to run out, the hunter will become the hunted..
LMFAO!
I AM THE MOB on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 12:31 pm
“First they put away the dealers, keep our kids safe and off the street. Then they put away the prostitutes, keep married men cloistered at home.
Then they shooed away the bums, then they beat and bashed the queers, turned away asylum-seekers, fed us suspicions and fears. We didn’t raise our voice, we didn’t make a fuss. It’s funny there was no one left to notice when they came for us.”
~NOFX
Cloggie on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 12:37 pm
“This powerful quote at the end of the Holocaust Museum in Washington, DC”
The most powerful “holocaust quote” is the question asked by the US revisionist Bradley Smith: give me one name and proof of someone who died in a gas chamber. Nobody will ever come up with an answer. Because there is none.
https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/26/an-embarrassing-discovery/
The hoax had to be invented by the alllies to distract attention away from their own far graver crimes, committed by themselves in order to colonize Europe.
The USSR meanwhile is dead.
Now the other one…
Cloggie on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 12:41 pm
“Don’t worry though, when the oil starts to run out, the hunter will become the hunted..”
Exactly right, millimob.
I do not expect to remain a holocaust denier all my life though, not in the light of to be expected events in the near future in the US. You can’t endeavour to ruin a country and not face consequences.
Antius on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 1:43 pm
I have never thought in controversial that the Germans killed a lot of Jews during WW2. The Jews were the ‘masterminds’ of communism in Europe and all the murder, poverty and death that came with it. The Germans knew it well. The Germans killed thousands of them and the bastards deserved it. They arranged the Jewish holocaust only after the Jews had inflicted their own holocaust on the people of eastern Europe. Shed no tears for the Jews. They deserve none.
But by the same token, do not assume that the Germans were in any way saintly. These people idolized the Romans – everything about the Romans. They even called their emperor Kaiser, the latin pronunciation of Caesar. The Nazi salute is basically a Roman salute.
The symbol of the German state, the double headed eagle was the same banner that the Roman army carried into battle. And they idolized Roman values in every way. And those values basically say that what you take by force is yours by right. The weak should die, for it is nature’s way. The vanquished deserve no mercy.
There were no good guys in WW2.
Davy on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 1:58 pm
Exactly, Antius, this is why I have said the allied civilian bombings were crimes also. The problem I have is with the board Nazi and his hilarious claim that Nazis were
Victims.
Sissyfuss on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 3:10 pm
“There were no good guys in WW11.” No, but there was a lot of Darwinism.
Cloggie on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 3:47 pm
“There were no good guys in WW11.” No, but there was a lot of Darwinism
We are living in a Darwinian Universe… if not worse:
https://goo.gl/images/4N5MpP
Cloggie on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 4:00 pm
“The problem I have is with the board Nazi and his hilarious claim that Nazis were Victims.”
Davy is now giving us a short exposee as too where exactly the Natzis were engaged in unprovoked agression, that would justify the level of violence applied against them by the alllies…
[spot on]
[drummroll]
[silence]
Cloggie on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 4:03 pm
But by the same token, do not assume that the Germans were in any way saintly. These people idolized the Romans – everything about the Romans. They even called their emperor Kaiser, the latin pronunciation of Caesar. The Nazi salute is basically a Roman salute.
The symbol of the German state, the double headed eagle was the same banner that the Roman army carried into battle. And they idolized Roman values in every way. And those values basically say that what you take by force is yours by right. The weak should die, for it is nature’s way. The vanquished deserve no mercy.
Remains the fascinating question… why your nick?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Antius_Crescens_Calpurnianus
Or Anti-US after all.lol
Antius on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 4:17 pm
“Remains the fascinating question… why your nick?”
Nick name given to me by a girlfriend.
Cloggie on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 4:26 pm
Unexpected new Brexit angle: Tory Remainers threaten to form government of national unity, wrong-footing both May and Johnson:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6223957/Tory-Remain-rebels-demand-second-Brexit-referendum.html
Als twee honden vechten om een been, loopt de derde er mee heen.
Means that when two dogs fight over a bone, an unsuspecting dog will creep up and carry the bone away.
https://goo.gl/images/yCjG4r
Antius on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 4:50 pm
Japanese post WW2 eugenics programme. Those Japs are ruthless bastards.
https://www.economist.com/asia/2018/09/29/victims-of-forced-sterilisation-in-japan-fight-for-compensation?fsrc=scn/tw/te/rfd/pe
Sissyfuss on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 5:45 pm
No worries. We’ll use a lottery system when immersed in the bottleneck.
Free Speech Message Board on Mon, 1st Oct 2018 1:30 am
The USA is an immoral bankrupt warmongering police state now.
The US has crossed every line. The USA will collapse when the Ponzi economy falls.
Communists believe the problems are caused by businesses. Libertarians blame the government. Nazis believe the problems are caused by the Jews.
The elites have weakened the US by using fags, Muslims, Mexicans, Asians, feminists, and blacks to divide Americans. White men have turned into cucks.
The USA may be doomed, but giving up seems suicidal.
Redpill men who don’t want to just stand idly by should prepare by buying guns, gold, and food.
Wake up people by starting a website and talking to people.
Start a newspaper, magazine, radio show, TV show, make art, and write songs to get the word out.
Sponsor billboards.
Form a new religion.
Start an off the grid community like the Amish.
Buy a sailboat, seastead, or an island.
Move to Eastern Europe.
Think.
Pass the word.
makati1 on Mon, 1st Oct 2018 4:37 am
Free, most of the suggestions you make are illegal in the US. It is not going to last much longer. TPTB want it to fail and soon. They see the end is in sight and are throwing everything at the taking it down. The Federal Reserve is leading the way. Be patient.
The Great Leveling is almost complete.
I AM THE MOB on Mon, 1st Oct 2018 7:39 am
Free speech
Its game over soon for peckerwoods!
The great white devil is going down!
Cloggie on Mon, 1st Oct 2018 9:19 am
Its game over soon for peckerwoods!
The great white devil is going down!
Bring it on millikike, because if US whitey goes down, so goes J-power. ROFL
Why don’t you jump hand-in-hand into the Grand Canyon together now that even Bloomberg admits that the NWO project failed.
Oh and greetings from Dolfie! Toodeledokie!
Antius on Mon, 1st Oct 2018 10:05 am
“Bring it on millikike, because if US whitey goes down, so goes J-power. ROFL”
I have often wondered about this. In the UK, unless something dramatic happens, we are on course to becoming an Islamic republic in the second half of the 21st century. I cannot imagine that will be a good thing for God’s chosen people. Do they actually have a long term game plan? Or are they just content shitting thing up as much as they can for the western countries?
GetAVasectomyAndLetTheHumanSpecieDie on Mon, 1st Oct 2018 10:21 am
Western civilization is dead. Western civilization is governed by a matriarchal for of government. Women are in charge of the Western nation and are using man, mainly beta cuck, to impose violence on other men through the police system, courts system and the army.
#MeToo movement and Kavanaugh story is about the matriarchal government or women as a group reminding men who is in charge: women
In the Western world, Women are in charge and they matter the most. Feminism is about reminding the world that Women are there to served, adored, protected and man are only tool that should obey.
The West is dead and has been dead for a long time. It cannot be saved and it is now self destructing
Cloggie on Mon, 1st Oct 2018 10:38 am
“I cannot imagine that will be a good thing for God’s chosen people. Do they actually have a long term game plan? Or are they just content shitting thing up as much as they can for the western countries?”
They are hooligans, nothing else. Just study the droppings of millimind, nothing Godly about him, just a liat, wannabee rapist and massmurderer, nothing else. He even gloats about 9/11 as a successful false flag, to rub in how dumb the christian sheeple are (and they are). A good analogy is that of the frog and scorpion, google it up, too long to type on an iphone. They behave like they do because they have no other mode of behavior. They are the quintessential sadists who jerk themselves off on somebody else his suffering. For a normal christian do-gooder it is extremely difficult to get an accurate psychogram of these sociopaths. They have the same problem btw with Africans and muslims. That’s why in an age of masstransport we absolutely need to dump christianity otherwise we are toast, think Spain, read al-Andaluz 711-1492. If nothing changes, al-Andaluz will happen again, Europe-wide. Way out: Roman military values, contempt for victimhood, glorification of strong people. Rejection of the moral of pity. Too difficult? Enjoy becoming a slave of Islam.
GetAVasectormyAndLetTheHumanSpecieDie on Mon, 1st Oct 2018 3:41 pm
If you watch and still think that Western civilization is well and alive, you need your brain examine. Western civilization is dead like a dead corpse. Ants are now moving in and eating the corpse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnBB1WFzMXA
Rice Queen Lover on Tue, 2nd Oct 2018 6:25 am
“The elites have weakened the US by using fags, Muslims, Mexicans, Asians, feminists, and blacks to divide Americans. White men have turned into cucks.”
I beg your pardon, sir. I am an African-American transgendered and disabled female (yes, I love cock). I have no interest in dividing. I much prefer being mounted on a sling ( swing used for sexual pleasure that’s hung from the celling with chains).